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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #2,401
  • Apr 2, 2008 1:38pm Apr 2, 2008 1:38pm
I agree with cecmc, I dont think this is heading north. Be carefull guys.
  • #2,402
  • Edited 2:58pm Apr 2, 2008 2:20pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting Ocean
I have moved my SL @ BE (1.5606). From now on I will trail it with 100 pips TSL.

Ocean
Just closed my position at 5678. Thanks Ocean. Now that I am out, as a sacrifice, the trading gods will surely lift the rest of your boats. The gods do not allow all to prosper!

Made about 64 pips, which I believe makes me about even on my poorly executed Jacko Method trades.

I agree that I am over trading this system. I will review all my entries and work to improve. I am a very short term trader by nature and this is difficult for me to sit and watch. (I have done well in the yen over the last few days. Sometimes you are really in sync. Made 31 trades with 24 positive, 3 scratch, 3 very small losses, and the 1 that can only be considered idiotic where I loss 24 pips.)

Anyway, I really want to improve here and will continue to study my mistakes and focus onlonger term charts.

-Sean
  • #2,403
  • Edited 2:57pm Apr 2, 2008 2:55pm | Edited 2:57pm
A trading god story:

About 10 years ago, I was in the tiny wheat pit at the Mid-Am. I somehow (I don't remember the details) had accummulated a rather large long wheat position. It was slightly in the money. My buddy Eric was also long. The market was just sitting and not moving.

I more interested in a laugh than any concrete strategy told Eric, "I will sacrifice 10% of my position to the trading gods to get this market going." And I did sell about 10% at the bid and the market immediately lifted.

We laughed. So I said, "The gods will not allow me to have such a large position in a bullish market. I have not been good nor respectful to them in the past." Eric just laughed, as he was long and making money.

"I will make another sacrifice." I did and the market immdediately rose again. You should have seen the look on our eyes. This went on another two or three times. It was so strange the market would settle and look dead, then I'd sell and we were off to the races again. We were just laughing and printing profits.

When I finally reduced my position to one that was really more appropriate to the size of my account, I held it for the future moves.

Now that I think of it Eric never offered to sell any of his position to make the gods happy! Oh well.

-Sean
  • #2,404
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:23pm Apr 2, 2008 3:23pm
Sean,

I am also out @ 1.5700 for nice 94 pips of profit on 3.5 lot trade.

Ocean
  • #2,405
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:38pm Apr 2, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting Ocean
Sean,

I am also out @ 1.5700 for nice 94 pips of profit on 3.5 lot trade.

Ocean
Nice.

I don' know about you but I find it difficult to let profits run following a couple of bad trades. You just want to bank SOMETHING!

When you stop and think about it this is probably a very bad thing. Assuming that when you have been in a bad streak and you are a trend trader; you have probably been in the midst of a ranging market. When it finally is possibly breaking out, you cut your profit short.

This is not a criticism of you Ocean, just some general out-loud thinking. Which maybe I or someone else will benefit from.

Thanks again for the ride on your coat-tails,

Sean
  • #2,406
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:44pm Apr 2, 2008 3:44pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
If you have to TP, i know the feeling, then try to TP part of the trade and leave a small piece open to run the trade to it's Jacko conclusion.

Just an opinion, that might help you understand the potential of this method, after all this could go to 1.6000 and you'd be trying to catch the run now your out and then could end up right back were you started. but if you leave a piece on then at least you have something to sit back and watch rather than try to catch up.

best of pips

MPP
  • #2,407
  • Edited 3:58pm Apr 2, 2008 3:56pm | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting seanchicago
Nice.

I don' know about you but I find it difficult to let profits run following a couple of bad trades. You just want to bank SOMETHING!

When you stop and think about it this is probably a very bad thing. Assuming that when you have been in a bad streak and you are a trend trader; you have probably been in the midst of a ranging market. When it finally is possibly breaking out, you cut your profit short.

This is not a criticism of you Ocean, just some general out-loud thinking. Which maybe I or someone else will benefit from.

Thanks again for the ride on your coat-tails,

Sean
I don't have problems with letting my profits run but I didn't have faith that in the short term it is the north heading train (my gut feeling could be wrong with this situation).

You have right that it is more convenient to risk market money so it is wise to start with risking say 2% bank some profits and then increase the leverage (up to the 5% max). It is my plan and I trade the plan. During one year (not much) of my experience I found that the most difficult thing is to detach ourselves from money. In my opinion this is the most important part of this business to succeed.

Ocean
  • #2,408
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:07pm Apr 2, 2008 4:07pm
MPP,
I cut bait just before the ADP report. I have had a pretty good few days and wanted to bank the profits. Zero on the first short(thank goodness I was keeping an eye on that one) Ninety-five pips from the second short trade and 49 pips from the trend trade plus another 30 just range trading. My thought was to bank the pips and lever up on the next really good setup.
In addition, all of the chatter(various opinions) on this thread were clouding my judgment. I figured if I'm not comfortable get out, so I did. I needed to clear my head. If I left a few pips on the table so be it. Forex will be here tomorrow and the day after, and the day after that... Better to have a clear plan. I think I let all of the other opinions affect me too much this time. Not that I don't appreciate all the different perspectives. It just got to the point that I was not thinking clearly enough..for me.

That said I do play by the book about 95% of the time. Those range trades just gave me something to do while I read all of the posts on Jackos thread.
  • #2,409
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:51pm Apr 2, 2008 4:51pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Archer
MPP,
I cut bait just before the ADP report. I have had a pretty good few days and wanted to bank the profits. Zero on the first short(thank goodness I was keeping an eye on that one) Ninety-five pips from the second short trade and 49 pips from the trend trade plus another 30 just range trading. My thought was to bank the pips and lever up on the next really good setup.
In addition, all of the chatter(various opinions) on this thread were clouding my judgment. I figured if I'm not comfortable get out, so I did. I needed to clear my head. If I left a few pips on the table so be it. Forex will be here tomorrow and the day after, and the day after that... Better to have a clear plan. I think I let all of the other opinions affect me too much this time. Not that I don't appreciate all the different perspectives. It just got to the point that I was not thinking clearly enough..for me.

That said I do play by the book about 95% of the time. Those range trades just gave me something to do while I read all of the posts on Jackos thread.
Great trades, i lost on the CT trade, but i'm long from 1.5600 lets see were this takes us.

i find that the best way to set your trades is to review the charts before coming to the threads, set you plan and trade it, unless there's some news that might affect it (eg NFP)

out all tomorrow so catch you all on friday.
  • #2,410
  • Apr 2, 2008 6:53pm Apr 2, 2008 6:53pm
I have closed last long trade from 5565 @ 5675 on 2 lots as I never added as the moved advanced up. Just never felt that good about this trades strength, but I am still satisfied with the trades results.

Ocean.....94 pips...great trade.

cecmc......I agree with post #2396....I find myself overtrading as well. Hard habit to break, but I'm learning. Tks for your post & the value they contain.

Staying out for awhile & being happy with the gains over the last 4 weeks. It is hard for me to be patient as you need to be with this method, but it is worth the wait & I'm adapting.

MPP....I really appreciate your views & comments as they say volumes about your trading ability & style. Keep posting your valued info as its is adding strength to the method each day.

AceTrader
  • #2,411
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:43pm Apr 2, 2008 10:43pm
I enjoy reading all of your posts and learning.

I've got the same issue with patience and sticking to this method.
I do enjoy being in the game.

t's been kind of an off week so far with the Dow being high on Tue., and oil and gold going lower, and dollar being higher.
Then you have Paulson's trip to China,
which could be a political cause for the above movements.

I do think there are differing factors affecting this Eur/US pair.
  • #2,412
  • Apr 3, 2008 12:45am Apr 3, 2008 12:45am
from bloomberg.com (http://bloomberg.com/)

The euro may fall to $1.5341 by the end of next week provided it weakens below $1.5599, said Kengo Suzuki (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kengo+Suzuki&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), a currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co., citing technical charts.
The first level of so-called support at $1.5599 represents the common European currency's average price for the past 20 days, Tokyo-based Suzuki said. Second support at $1.5341 is the neckline of a pattern known as a double top, which forms when a currency makes two successive peaks of about the same height. The neckline passes through the lowest point of the double top. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.
  • #2,413
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:07am Apr 3, 2008 1:07am
I'm looking for a short trade. I think H4 trendline will be broken today and we going to see south movement.

Well, below 1.6000's would be the break of H4 trendline.
  • #2,414
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:46am Apr 3, 2008 1:46am
Quoting pavlov0032
from bloomberg.com (http://bloomberg.com/)

 The euro may fall to $1.5341 by the end of next week provided it weakens below $1.5599, said Kengo Suzuki (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kengo+Suzuki&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), a currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co., citing technical charts.
The first level of so-called support at $1.5599 represents the common European currency's average price for the past 20 days, Tokyo-based Suzuki said. Second support at $1.5341 is the neckline of a pattern known as a double top, which forms when a currency makes two successive peaks of about the same height. The neckline passes through the lowest point of the double top. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.
If this is the case, does this mean that the price will fall farther below 1.5341?
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Live From Los Angeles
  • #2,415
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:50am Apr 3, 2008 1:50am
Hi everyone,just want to say that you guys are doing a great job and i`m really enjoing this thread . I`m here to learn and share ,and following your thoughts is really helpful , thank you. I`m Jackos Disciple ( 1st group ) and he really changed my trading style, isnt he something. Of cource i still have some skeletons in my closet but i know that following Jackos rules is the way to do it.
So lets enjoy our jorney and learn from each other ..

PS.i was short on monday and got stopped out
now looking for another short at about 50% ret.(57200ish)
  • #2,416
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:47am Apr 3, 2008 3:47am
If the 4h trendline breaks heavily, I believe we could go down do 1.5250 in the medium term. My reasoning is based on one of my previous posts (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1927975&postcount=2260). (breaking of a trendline) Plus, 1.5250 was acting as a resistance level at first and then became a support level. I will not risk going long again, before we have a clearer picture.
  • #2,417
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:52am Apr 3, 2008 4:52am
Quoting hendrix
If the 4h trendline breaks heavily, I believe we could go down do 1.5250 in the medium term. My reasoning is based on one of my previous posts (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1927975&postcount=2260). (breaking of a trendline) Plus, 1.5250 was acting as a resistance level at first and then became a support level. I will not risk going long again, before we have a clearer picture.

At what level do you have the 4hr trend line being crossed. On my chart I have it being crossed today @ 1.5585
  • #2,418
  • Apr 3, 2008 5:15am Apr 3, 2008 5:15am
I am still out @ this time, but it now appears the 5700 level would have been the level to get short. If 5550 fails as support those calling for the 5300
area just might see it. I emailed the trader who said several days ago the 5550 COULD be a good level to see a bounce & he said still pay attention to the 5550 level & upcoming data on Friday. (NFP).

I'll play it from the side for now as I am still not sure what is next. What would Jacko do? Whatever he would do, I'm sure he is plus pips @ this time.

panhandler......Nice 4H chart & I'm seeing the same on mine.....below 5341 I
have no idea, but I guess anything is possible.

If not already into a trade I would be most careful @ this point ahead of NFP. As Cecmc stated, some of us are trading TOO MUCH & that includes me. I will most likely stay out for the remainder of this week & just watch & learn from those that post there results. NO FEAR, it has been a productive week for some I'm sure.

Well what do I know. I'll just try & trade what I see.


"It is Better To Light A Candle Than To Curse The Darkness"

_________________
AceTrader
  • #2,419
  • Apr 3, 2008 5:22am Apr 3, 2008 5:22am
Quoting jedsman
At what level do you have the 4hr trend line being crossed. On my chart I have it being crossed today @ 1.5585

My trend line is at 1.5550 on the 4h chart.
  • #2,420
  • Apr 3, 2008 5:23am Apr 3, 2008 5:23am
hey guys, this is my view on the counter trend strategy: Since now Euro is clearly in a short -term or medium term reversal, i would go for some counter trades as well, since its not in my nature to stay too long on the sidelines.

My strategy is to wait until the current 4H candle is closed and if the price will still be deeply under the red trendline, I will take a short with TP 5350. There are 200+ pips available there.

My last trade was a long from 5620, trailed by 50 pips, since I didnt feel confident in the trade, and stopped out at 5651. 30+ pips.
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