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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,341
  • Apr 1, 2008 9:37pm Apr 1, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting jcminvest
ok so just to get a handle on things and try to narrow my routine... what pairs work best with this system. I know vague, but right now i'm watching around 9 pairs. Just looking for some input. Thanks boys
9 pairs - wow!!

If I were starting I would trade and master 1 pair - EUR or GBP. One pair is all you need to make money.

If you just concentrate on one pair you will develope a 6th sense on what price is doing because your mind is clearly focused and not scattered trying to remember. I now spend 80% of my time with the EUR - but working on adding the GBP. If you notice the long timers here all trade 1 to 3 pairs.
  • #13,342
  • Apr 1, 2008 10:03pm Apr 1, 2008 10:03pm
I trade the Euro, GBP and JPY. I focus my energy on the ones that have good movement, recently the GBP.
There are times when it pays to be flexible though. Last summer the easy money was in the GBPJPY. I haven't traded it for months now though, and not using Phillip's system.
Phillip trades mostly the GBP and EUR. JPY has whipsaws that make it difficult, but when it trends, you can really rack up the pips.
Three currencies is all I can handle.
  • #13,343
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:03pm Apr 1, 2008 11:03pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I just closed this trade remainder for +230 pips. That tail at the place and level it occured was realy a hunter. I see some people getting pips. Good
Nice!!... it seems this pair is going to 200sma... 1.5300/50 is the target in that case. lets see.
  • #13,344
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:15pm Apr 1, 2008 11:15pm
GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD... are already below 200sma.
USDCAD... is above 200sma.
USDJPY is going to 200sma...
EURUSD... going to 200sma? why not?

just be careful on Friday (NFP)

A.
  • #13,345
  • Edited 1:04am Apr 2, 2008 12:48am | Edited 1:04am
Gu's 89sma of weekly chart is a good suport, you can see it from 4h, how accurate. I have considered whether I long gu for HL, but the price has rised already. This is not the 1st time I find 89sma plays a role in weekly chart, that is absolutely a good MA!
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,346
  • Apr 2, 2008 12:58am Apr 2, 2008 12:58am
Quoting saka
Gu's 89sma of weekly chart is a good suport, you can see it from 4h, how accuecy. I have considered whether I long gu for HL, but the price has rised already. This is not the 1st time I find 89sma plays a role in weekly chart, that is absolutely a good MA!
I also considered the long and it has broken out of the price channel on the 1H. But I think the stop is too large and R/R isn't great. I fancy a move back to the 21 and then another possible crack at the support at 9740.
  • #13,347
  • Edited 2:10am Apr 2, 2008 1:44am | Edited 2:10am
dold usdcad on h1
eitd:went BE after 20pips
edit:closed +50pips
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  • #13,348
  • Apr 2, 2008 2:00am Apr 2, 2008 2:00am
There has been an E/U spike on the 4H right on the support line. This also formed a nice RB below the 45 level. This would have been a good CT trade. I didn't take it because in these cases I am often not sure where to place the stop.

Philip, this is one for you to answer for me. In this type of case I previously have been placing the stop just below the low. But in this case that is too much of a stop. So I could just place it an arbitrary 30 pips away and hope for the best but I feel this is more a question of luck than actual analysis of the charts. What is your view on this ????

Anyway going back to the CT trade, if using 30 pips stop and 1/1 R/R then it would have hit the target already, which by the way is the 8 on the 4H.

E/U should be watched closely now for a possible TC and further bearish moves.
  • #13,349
  • Edited Apr 3, 2008 12:32am Apr 2, 2008 2:03am | Edited Apr 3, 2008 12:32am
Quoting bshadroo
dold usdcad on h1
eitd:went BE after 20pips
I also took this one, here is my chart

edit1: move to BE after 25 pips

edit2: close 50% at TP1, hold another 50% sl at BE

edit3: TP2 are hit, 62pips gain
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Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #13,350
  • Apr 2, 2008 2:04am Apr 2, 2008 2:04am
Quoting brettboz
I also considered the long and it has broken out of the price channel on the 1H. But I think the stop is too large and R/R isn't great. I fancy a move back to the 21 and then another possible crack at the support at 9740.
1h would be the chance to long. but the middle horizontal line is 89sma of daily chart and 8ema of 4h as well, I am afraid of resistant here. The tails and HL in 1h is good signal, but we had better pass this for CT is very dangerous, there is not neccessary to enter. Wait for put beck to 21ema to see whether there is a good TC to enter.
http://www.sinaimg.cn/cj/pc/2008-04-...0402171042.gif
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,351
  • Apr 2, 2008 2:37am Apr 2, 2008 2:37am
Does anyone have ZUP indicator?pls post here.thanks
  • #13,352
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:28am Apr 2, 2008 3:28am
Quoting saka
1h would be the chance to long. but the middle horizontal line is 89sma of daily chart and 8ema of 4h as well, I am afraid of resistant here. The tails and HL in 1h is good signal, but we had better pass this for CT is very dangerous, there is not neccessary to enter. Wait for put beck to 21ema to see whether there is a good TC to enter.
http://www.sinaimg.cn/cj/pc/2008-04-...0402171042.gif
We may get an early signal here on 1H. We have a small spinner and the MACD looks to be turning down on the 1H. If 4H closes like this then its a bit of a spike to the 21. Could be short although 1st target is obviously above 9740 where we have strong support.
  • #13,353
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:56am Apr 2, 2008 3:56am
Here is a written copy for the daily wrapup 1st of April.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc wrapup for the 1st of April.doc   28 KB | 456 downloads
  • #13,354
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:34am Apr 2, 2008 4:34am
Quoting Nigel
Hi everyone!

First of all. Thank you Phillip for putting in so much time and effort in educating us. It is indeed a long thread and I have finished reading more than half of it.

At this point of time, i do have an idea how this whole system works. Please advise if im on the right track before proceeding onto the next half of this thread. Attached is the chart on EUR/USD with explanations on the chart. Your help is very much appreciated. Thanks, and sorry if my command of English is not easy to apprehend


on 02/26/08 0800hours candle. There was a TC MACd signal, DO i place a long order at the current candle or on 1200 candle immediately after 0800 candle close?
Phillip or anyone..

Is this how i should trade the 4h MACd strategy?

Please correct me if the way im trading this strategy is not right

*First, wait for a cross over of price and 89sma and the price to retrace to any of the MAS (21 or 8ema) then trade accordingly as per MACd signal (normally TC signal) If no retrace, leave it. (Is this the rhythm that we are supposed to look out for before even thinking of placing a trade?)

And if i missed a TC on a retrace to 21ema, i can only trade a lower high,round top,etc (if up trend counter-trend trades) and take profit will be around 21ema/8ema right?

Advise needed. Thanks again.

Thanks. =)
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  • #13,355
  • Apr 2, 2008 4:53am Apr 2, 2008 4:53am
dear nigel
phillip usually trades at the closing of signal candle (on the other words ,at the opening of the next candle),and he only waits for some pull back if the candle is huge and he cannot put a stoploss smaller that 50 pips.
  • #13,356
  • Apr 2, 2008 5:03am Apr 2, 2008 5:03am
Quoting bshadroo
dear nigel
phillip usually trades at the closing of signal candle (on the other words ,at the opening of the next candle),and he only waits for some pull back if the candle is huge and he cannot put a stoploss smaller that 50 pips.
Thank you for your valuable advise. Look at the explanations i have wrote on the chart and the post itself. Is that how we should trade using 4h Macd strategy?
  • #13,357
  • Apr 2, 2008 5:24am Apr 2, 2008 5:24am
Quoting Nigel
Phillip or anyone..

Is this how i should trade the 4h MACd strategy?

Please correct me if the way im trading this strategy is not right

*First, wait for a cross over of price and 89sma and the price to retrace to any of the MAS (21 or 8ema) then trade accordingly as per MACd signal (normally TC signal) If no retrace, leave it-usually it retraces but we canot say that exact "if no retrace leave it". (Is this the rhythm that we are supposed to look out for before even thinking of placing a trade?rhythm is more important that macd signals ,yes)

And if i missed a TC on a retrace to 21ema, i can only trade a lower high,round top,etc (if up trend counter-trend trades) and take profit will be around 21ema/8ema right yes but better to trade TC's at the beggining?

Advise needed. Thanks again.

Thanks. =)
i looked at your chart and i think nothing wrong in it
  • #13,358
  • Apr 2, 2008 5:41am Apr 2, 2008 5:41am
Quoting BenStevo
Can someone please tell me if the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD) announcement due out today at 1.15pm is a non-trade event for Phillip, or is it just the Nonfarm Employment Change announcement due out on Friday that is the one to stay out of.

Thanks
Ben:

It depends on a few things:

If you are already in a trade it's best just to tighten up your stops or exit altogether. If there is a potential set-up then it's better to let the news come out and let the market digest whatever the news was and then decide what to do. The news events can be so volatile they will either wipe out a good signal, your position, or put a lot of pips into your account very fast. It's really a crap-shoot during news times, more of a guess. I'd let the news play out and then let the charts tell you...
  • #13,359
  • Edited 7:41am Apr 2, 2008 7:38am | Edited 7:41am
When price zaps into the middle of 8 and 21 and then gives TC what is the general consensus as to which EMA is giving the acting as support / resistance.

Take the EU now as a case in point. It looks to be closing (although still 2 hours away from candle close) with a TC and price came off the area between the 8 and 21.

The real reason I ask is to try to decide where the stop should go on the trade.
  • #13,360
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:11am Apr 2, 2008 8:11am
Quoting brettboz
When price zaps into the middle of 8 and 21 and then gives TC what is the general consensus as to which EMA is giving the acting as support / resistance.

Take the EU now as a case in point. It looks to be closing (although still 2 hours away from candle close) with a TC and price came off the area between the 8 and 21.

The real reason I ask is to try to decide where the stop should go on the trade.
This is a very confused chart right now. Price is at the 3 lower ma's and the 1hr is stuck between support and the pivot (inset). But, if the rhythm of the market is strong an the price comes back to the 21, say an uptrend) then the 21 is used as support for a TC, resistance in a downtrend. I just want price to leave the area entirely before doing anything here...

Annd, price is at the Fib 50% number. When this happens price can stall for a while.
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