ADP NFP Leaked | Forex Factory

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ADP NFP Leaked

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 2, 2008 7:27am Apr 2, 2008 7:27am
Check out this 10 seconds EURUSD chart... the market spiked down 30+ pips 2 minute before the announcement.. much more than it actually spiked after the news came out at 14:15 .

Next time it happens I'm buying S&P futures
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  • #2
  • Apr 2, 2008 7:41am Apr 2, 2008 7:41am
Jmho,There were some positive earnings reports announced prematurely which probably prompted some early entries.

fwiw,

a
  • #3
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:22am Apr 2, 2008 8:22am
I use IBFX and noticed the same sell off. I almost went with it figuring it was a leak but did not take it
  • #4
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:27am Apr 2, 2008 8:27am
As I watched Cnbc and Bloomberg, about 15 minutes before the ADP, CNBC had a private think tank on that posted their research about the employment numbers and these were very accurate. I do not believe there was a leak, I think, as has been happening since last April 07, these numbers can be determined from other sources. If one goes back through the data, one can see that the impact of both the ADP and the NFP has been drastically dampened.

I just think people are acting and reacting quicker.
  • #5
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:37am Apr 2, 2008 8:37am
Can anyone recommend me how to listen to the fed chairman bernanke gives his speech now? I mean online radio or something?

How does one determine his speech is useful or not.

Thanks!
  • #6
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:44am Apr 2, 2008 8:44am
The contents of his speech are released before he talks.
  • #7
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:48am Apr 2, 2008 8:48am
Quoting auxesis
The contents of his speech are released before he talks.
And how do i get these contents? Do traders watch closely to this content?
  • #8
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:02am Apr 2, 2008 9:02am
Most all news services will either recap or post them. They are given the speech in advance but are not allowed to release the contents until he gets ready to talk.

As long as the content of the speech is in line with the consensus (current market sentiment) there's usually no or very little fireworks.

It's the old mindset of Buy the rumor and sell the fact, the markets move on the anticipation or pricing in of economic figure, when that figure comes in on target the market takes profit. Which usually goes against what everyone thinks.... it was a good number why did it go down? It's because the market already priced it into that level.

Same thing applies to the speeches.
  • #9
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:14am Apr 2, 2008 9:14am
you can watch the testimony live on bloomberg.com


(I still think it was a leak. 30 pips in 20 second on eurusd must have been a very very large order)
  • #10
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:34am Apr 2, 2008 9:34am
I do also. You can't have such a huge market and no one knows anything except for 1 guy.
  • #11
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:40am Apr 2, 2008 9:40am
Quoting pip thief
I do also. You can't have such a huge market and no one knows anything except for 1 guy.
Yep there's a bunch of people who know in advance........ dont trade the news, trade the charts
  • #12
  • Apr 2, 2008 9:54am Apr 2, 2008 9:54am
Smjones has posted his take on this before and has been using this knowledge to his advantage. He has been saying for a while now that these numbers can be determined from other sources. If you've been watching the the ADP and the NFP for a while you'll notice that the reactions over the past year or so haven't been as explosive as they used to be.

One person didn't move the market, several did.
  • #13
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:43am Apr 2, 2008 10:43am
Quoting billflet
Smjones has posted his take on this before and has been using this knowledge to his advantage. He has been saying for a while now that these numbers can be determined from other sources. If you've been watching the the ADP and the NFP for a while you'll notice that the reactions over the past year or so haven't been as explosive as they used to be.

One person didn't move the market, several did.
Thanks my friend. It always amazes me that people will only hear what they want to hear. Guys, go look up the NFP sweepstakes thread in the Trading Room. I also talked about it in a thread by Drummer486 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=72686 in the Trading Room. Just so you know I have been able to be on the correct side of this and the NFP report since April 2007. I will be trading it sometime between 9:00 and 11:00 GMT Friday. I already know which way I will place my trade. I just don't know the level of price yet. If all goes well I will be in at least a couple of hours before the release Friday. So i have never had to contend with broker spreads or weird fills. I Don't even consider it a News trade, more of a fundie trade.

Believe me I am not an expert on Funndies, but if I can figure it out. Many many more can as well. I am just an average trader. There are lots brighter than me.
  • #14
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:47am Apr 2, 2008 10:47am
I don't trade the news I was just being observant of what was going on and just so happen a comment was made about it
  • #15
  • Apr 2, 2008 11:55am Apr 2, 2008 11:55am
Guys,

I have something to admit...

It was me who moved the market
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  • #16
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:47pm Apr 2, 2008 3:47pm
Guys I don't think it was an ADP leak. At 8:13:19, according to TradeThe News, wires were reporting that the EZ will voice concerns regarding euro strength at April 11 G7 meeting. I believe it was just a kneejerk reaction by the market to your classic mini tape bomb. That's what caused the downmove in EUR/USD.
  • #17
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:53pm Apr 2, 2008 3:53pm
I think it was kharvell dumping 10 yards into the market
  • #18
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:54pm Apr 2, 2008 10:54pm
Quoting auxesis
I think it was kharvell dumping 10 yards into the market
kharvell was in on it with the Duke brothers, Mortimer and Randall. With a little help from Clarence Beeks.


Trading Places 1983
  • #19
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:56pm Apr 2, 2008 10:56pm
Quoting billflet
kharvell was in on it with the Duke brothers, Mortimer and Randall. With a little help from Clarence Beeks.


Trading Places 1983
Lol, and dont forget:

Mr. Valentine set the price.
  • #20
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:54am Apr 3, 2008 1:54am
Quoting kharvell
Guys,

I have something to admit...

It was me who moved the market
Maybe next time you can inform us before actually doing it?
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