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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,301
  • Mar 31, 2008 10:37pm Mar 31, 2008 10:37pm
Quoting jcminvest
Thanks Palmer for the help great to see that you experienced guys look out for the newbs. I love it and can't thank you enough. So now that the Euro is flowing around 0 would we be best to wait and stay out untill we see which way the market will go? Would we say go long if the markey bounces off of zero again because the market in general is a Bullish market? It looks like the Eur has broken it's uptrend around march 18. Just wondering what you expeirenced guys do in a situation like this. Also I have found that some of my trades have gone bad due to weird spikes.... how do I stay away from them or is it just tough luck? Thanks again


J
The EU is looking like it wants t make that zero bounce in addition to forming a TC off the 21 so I have a bias to the long side right now (but with very little room up there) but price is having trouble on the upside. This has been a very boring pair on the 4hr for this method. But, if you play the range trades, buy at support and sell at resistance it's been working well on the lower timeframes...different methodolgy there though. We're just stuck in this range so I would give this some time for the market to start moving again. This is the patience part of trading that is just as important as all the other rules.

As far as the price spike...which pair? There was one today on the EU that ended up being a false breakout. I follow this pair 95% of the time. As for dealing with them, I think the best thing to do is to wait for the candle to close before entering or be aware of news events that may cause these and tighten stops or make sure you enter 'post news'...
  • #13,302
  • Mar 31, 2008 10:43pm Mar 31, 2008 10:43pm
Hi dhalsim,

Thanks for your reply. I'm not sure that I totally agree with your reasoning at this point (basically, what I'm trying to say is that faced with these two trades as they happen, and without the benefit of hindsight, I don't know that I could quite as easily choose the G/U over E/U trade - to me, its still unclear as to why one worked out over the other).

Even if you look at the E/U chart again, you could just as easily draw a support TL touching 24 and 26 March lows. The tail of that pin bar entry touches that TL perfectly also. And it seems that Stop losses are often placed below the body of the candle (in this case, maybe 10pips beneath the left 'eye' of the pin bar). This leaves a R:R of 1:1

Quoting dhalsim
GBPUSD blue square is a pullback to the breakout level,
and after that candle close, H1 chart give a TC signal,
so I think that is the entry.

EURUSD chart I think there is no good reason to enter,
also GBPUSD RR ratio is better than EURUSD at that time.

dhalsim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,303
  • Mar 31, 2008 11:12pm Mar 31, 2008 11:12pm
Quoting BenStevo
Hi dhalsim,

Thanks for your reply. I'm not sure that I totally agree with your reasoning at this point (basically, what I'm trying to say is that faced with these two trades as they happen, and without the benefit of hindsight, I don't know that I could quite as easily choose the G/U over E/U trade - to me, its still unclear as to why one worked out over the other).

Even if you look at the E/U chart again, you could just as easily draw a support TL touching 24 and 26 March lows. The tail of that pin bar entry touches that TL perfectly also. And it seems that Stop losses are often placed below the body of the candle (in this case, maybe 10pips beneath the left 'eye' of the pin bar). This leaves a R:R of 1:1
for Stoploss level, I usually use previous high or low or below that trendline,
so for me, RR is not good on EURUSD.
besides, there is no MACD TC signal on H4 chart,
and if you turn to H1 chart, If you have entered, that should be a hour early before the 4H candle close, If you enter there, maybe you could got some pips.

and GBP Chart, there is a breakout trade, you could find some mp3 on breakout trade, you could do it according to the rules.

basically, I only trade according to the rules that Phillip taught
hope this helps.

Dhalsim
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #13,304
  • Apr 1, 2008 12:45am Apr 1, 2008 12:45am
Quoting ejiexe
Buy @ 1.5761
SL @ 1.5720
TP1 @ top of the range (1.5820 there about) and second lot for free ride in case it breaks upward. i will watch closely and move to BE as soon as possible.

I took this trade base on the doji formed on 38.2 fib which confluence with the bottom of the range. 89 on 1h and 21 on 4hr.
Only thing that scares me is that big tail.
  • #13,305
  • Apr 1, 2008 1:51am Apr 1, 2008 1:51am
Quoting maxster
Only thing that scares me is that big tail.
Quoting maxster
Only thing that scares me is that big tail.
You are right there. I took a short after the tail when i saw that price closed back in the triangle. Meanwhile, I closed all my position when the price stuck at 38.2 fib at 21 on 4hr.

Anyway, I was stoped -41 I sleep off and could not wakeup on time to manage the trade.

IS ANYBODY USING THE BREAKEVEN EXPERT POSTED BY MERIT? I WAS ABLE TO ATTACH IT TO CHART BUT DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE IT. THIS COULD HAVE SAFE THIS TRADE AS I PLANED TO MOVE TO BREAK EVEN AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #13,306
  • Edited 2:47am Apr 1, 2008 2:10am | Edited 2:47am
Look at the daily chart, a good pin bar has been formed, accompanied with a CT signal. I am waiting for chance to short it from 4h, and I find a LH(even though the MACD is not a green one, the blue candle can be considered as a retracement).

Enter @ 1.5730
SL @ 1.5771, 8ema of 4h
1TP @ 1.5667, week PP (55ema of 4h as well!)
2TP @ 1.5628, 89sma of 4h
R:R is very good

I set so large a TP since the pin bar of daily chart and there is also a divergence. I think this is the time of correct of eu. That would be a huge trend. This is why I don't follow what Philip has mostly done, which is taking profit of 25 pips of 1 lot.

1TP has reach, set remainder at BE.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,307
  • Apr 1, 2008 2:58am Apr 1, 2008 2:58am
E/U Shot out of its range too early for me to have taken and when I saw it the move had already been made. I guess a retrace is a possibility but Im not 100% sure I like it.

G/U is also now at an interesting level. Its still in its down channel but is touching a triple / quadruple bottom. It could find support here but it also broke through the supporting trendline so its a very mixed signal as to what could happen. The 1H looks like it will doji but I would want some sort of sign on the 4H before taking the long.
  • #13,308
  • Apr 1, 2008 3:05am Apr 1, 2008 3:05am
Nice TC in U/J
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #13,309
  • Apr 1, 2008 4:50am Apr 1, 2008 4:50am
It seems that week pp is a strong surport, colse my last lots @ 1.5675
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #13,310
  • Apr 1, 2008 6:01am Apr 1, 2008 6:01am
Hi ejiexe

The same thing happened to me. Have a look at post 13230 on page 882, where merrittb explained how to use it and where to paste the file.
Merittb " You don't want to put the file into the indicators folder (as it is not an indicator). Just put it in the EXPERTS folder. Restart, open your navigator, open "expert advisors", and drag it on to the chart. Should work just fine then. Also make sure your settings allow for an EA to run and trade live."

Hope this helps

Hello Phillip.
DANKIE vir die Monthly review en daily wrapup.
Jy is my hero.
Groete, en laat die pips groei
  • #13,311
  • Apr 1, 2008 6:30am Apr 1, 2008 6:30am
Hello all,

Have been demo trading for 2 months, just spending some time analysing my results.

Had a brief crack at going live a few weeks ago. Only had one trade, and even though it was closed out for a profit, I didn't feel that I had done enough demo trading. However I am considering going live now.

Trades = 33
profit = 19
loss = 14
s/r = 58%

Risking approx 4% of account with each trade.

Total account up 17% for the 2 month period.
+212 pips profit for the 2 month period.

ave profit = 36 pips.
ave loss = 33 pips.

Any comments? Should I be looking at going live or is there some tweaking to do?
  • #13,312
  • Apr 1, 2008 6:33am Apr 1, 2008 6:33am
Quoting Pipsquek
Hello all,

Have been demo trading for 2 months, just spending some time analysing my results.

Had a brief crack at going live a few weeks ago. Only had one trade, and even though it was closed out for a profit, I didn't feel that I had done enough demo trading. However I am considering going live now.

Trades = 33
profit = 19
loss = 14
s/r = 58%

Risking approx 4% of account with each trade.

Total account up 17% for the 2 month period.
+212 pips profit for the 2 month period.

ave profit = 36 pips.
ave loss = 33 pips.

Any comments? Should I be looking at going live or is there some tweaking to do?
If you can make 17% in 2 months then you are doing better than most fund managers so you can go live

Personally I risk less per trade than 4% but thats just a personal preference (I know Philip has mentioned 3% but even that is high for me).

Whats your max drawdown ??
  • #13,313
  • Apr 1, 2008 6:54am Apr 1, 2008 6:54am
max drawdown (high to low) is 11% after 4 losses in a row.

Should have mentioned that 4% (50 pips) was the maximum risk, but is usually around 2-3%.

Only 2 of the 14 losses were the max 4%.


Although results are good I still don't feel comfortable. Is there anything else I need to consider? I have come from a stocks/futures background, and have never traded currencies before.

Wish I had of made the move a long time ago though, because tech analysis is clearly more suited to Forex.

Do you guys sit out when news is expected?
If so what news events will stop you from trading?

I know very little when it comes to Fundamental analysis of forex.
  • #13,314
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:00am Apr 1, 2008 7:00am
do u like it palmer?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,315
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:04am Apr 1, 2008 7:04am
saka: Again, nice trade...You're on a roll!

Pipsquek: Welcome, this is a good place to be...

I watched the EU for a little while last night while going through the first 36 pages of Phillip's 5min method thread....The 5min thread was a lot more interesting. I was down and out when the support was broken so congrats to those that took the short. Will watch and see if t he 89 on the 4hr holds as support and if price makes a return to the 21 per the method...
  • #13,316
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:09am Apr 1, 2008 7:09am
Hi everyone!

First of all. Thank you Phillip for putting in so much time and effort in educating us. It is indeed a long thread and I have finished reading more than half of it.

At this point of time, i do have an idea how this whole system works. Please advise if im on the right track before proceeding onto the next half of this thread. Attached is the chart on EUR/USD with explanations on the chart. Your help is very much appreciated. Thanks, and sorry if my command of English is not easy to apprehend


on 02/26/08 0800hours candle. There was a TC MACd signal, DO i place a long order at the current candle or on 1200 candle immediately after 0800 candle close?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,317
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:21am Apr 1, 2008 7:21am
I just took the eurjpy. Any thoughts?

Price: 100.59
TP1: 157.90
Stop: 100.35

Thanks
  • #13,318
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:41am Apr 1, 2008 7:41am
Quoting Pip_eater
Hi ejiexe

The same thing happened to me. Have a look at post 13230 on page 882, where merrittb explained how to use it and where to paste the file.
Merittb " You don't want to put the file into the indicators folder (as it is not an indicator). Just put it in the EXPERTS folder. Restart, open your navigator, open "expert advisors", and drag it on to the chart. Should work just fine then. Also make sure your settings allow for an EA to run and trade live."

Hope this helps

Hello Phillip.
DANKIE vir die Monthly review en daily wrapup.
Jy is my hero.
Groete, en laat die pips groei
I have done that before. The breakeven sign just appear at the right corner of my chat. Where would I specified the no of pip to go BE?
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #13,319
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:56am Apr 1, 2008 7:56am
you Can Open Trade If candle 08.00 closing on 12.00,The best TC on area 8/21 ema .Thanks




"Together More Better Than Alone"
  • #13,320
  • Apr 1, 2008 8:42am Apr 1, 2008 8:42am
I took the long E/U and got stopped. My reasons for the trade were 4H doji off the 89. 1H morning star. The only thing I really had against this trade was the MACD on the 4H did not back this up at all.

I was expecting the price to move back to the 21 which it obviously didnt and just crashed straight down into my stop.
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