US Durable Goods Jan 26 | Forex Factory

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US Durable Goods Jan 26

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 20, 2007 3:21am Jan 20, 2007 3:21am
Last month, due to low volume, DGO produced a quick reversal.

This month, DGO is estimated to come at 1.0%, but (hold your breath) briefing.com is projecting a 7.0% increase!!!!!

Is December the month for Manufacturing Industries to Re-Tool?
Did Boeing had their very own "slashed down" discounted Planes December sales too? Or perhaps Santa Clause orders 500 of them to deliver the xmas goodies?
If the numbers came out really strong, will that defunct the Slowdown scenario?
  • #2
  • Jan 20, 2007 8:30pm Jan 20, 2007 8:30pm
No.!!
I'm only a bird in a gilded cage
  • #3
  • Jan 24, 2007 7:09am Jan 24, 2007 7:09am
USD has been gaining ground against GBP and EUR lately.
GBPUSD even climbed to another record 1.99 before reversing hard.

A strong Durable Goods will add fuel to the downtrend. BUT a bad number may be limited in movement or even a whipsaw.
  • #4
  • Jan 24, 2007 8:15am Jan 24, 2007 8:15am
Quoting BurgerKing
USD has been gaining ground against GBP and EUR lately.
GBPUSD even climbed to another record 1.99 before reversing hard.

A strong Durable Goods will add fuel to the downtrend. BUT a bad number may be limited in movement or even a whipsaw.
With the BoE being at the end of the rate hiking cycle, Cable should drop further especially after those meeting minutes.

Durable goods may come in strong due to big ticket items but however the number we should look at is the ex transport number. Seriously, who cares if an airline buys somany planes, it is not really adding to the GDP since the raw materials need to be purchased as well

just my 2 € Cent
  • #5
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:08am Jan 25, 2007 7:08am
As expected, GBPUSD broke above previous high resistance at 1.9846, further rise towards 2.0000 to reach the next cycle top on daily chart is still possible in the next several days. Near term support is at 1.9630, only break below this level may delay the resumption of the up trend. For long term analysis, GBPUSD will rise above 2.0000 to reach the next cycle top on weekly chart, and the next cycle top will appear next month
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #6
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:09pm Jan 25, 2007 7:09pm
if there will be a 7% increase it will be huge. I have some EA's running with shorts in usd/chf. might get stopped out real quick.
  • #7
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:15pm Jan 25, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting bmwboyee
if there will be a 7% increase it will be huge. I have some EA's running with shorts in usd/chf. might get stopped out real quick.
I trade the USD/CHF. What type of correction do you see if any from the bull run that started back in Dec? I am short too and am hoping for a correction to at least 1.2350. 1.2250 would be even better. Any thoughts?
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #8
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:16pm Jan 25, 2007 7:16pm
Quoting athalon7
I trade the USD/CHF. What type of correction do you see if any from the bull run that started back in Dec? I am short too and am hoping for a correction to at least 1.2350. 1.2250 would be even better. Any thoughts?

hey athalon, i won't pretend that i know but the pipboxer EA opened the trades. I sure hope we see those corrections for they would be GREAT!!
  • #9
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:21pm Jan 25, 2007 7:21pm
Quoting bmwboyee
hey athalon, i won't pretend that i know but the pipboxer EA opened the trades. I sure hope we see those corrections for they would be GREAT!!
What does the pipboxer look at? I am not familiar. And when did it open the trades? That huge upswing today did not take out the high from yesterday so I am still bearish. My trades are short too. But like you said, who knows?
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #10
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:31pm Jan 25, 2007 7:31pm
Companies may have ramped down to improve their balance sheets for the end of the year, hurting core durable goods numbers. New home sales might be decent as builders threw tones of buying incentives at consumers, but then again with people spending so much at the mall, I don't think they were busying themselves with buying homes. With any luck the numbers will at best be luekwarm and the market will throw some support behind the GBP to push it above 1.97, and push the EUR back up to 1.30 over the dollar.
I am Canadian!
  • #11
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:28pm Jan 25, 2007 9:28pm
Remember: A good estimate does not necessarily mean the actually will come just as good.

What I prefer are either: an exagerated estimate and a lower actual, or a lame estimate with a strong actual.

These should give us a big movement!
  • #12
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:50pm Jan 25, 2007 9:50pm
finally we have a decent report coming out tomorrow. the only action we got this week was uk gdp and the star wars episode. LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #13
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:52pm Jan 25, 2007 9:52pm
Quoting BurgerKing
briefing.com is projecting a 7.0% increase!!!!!
ive seen a few high estimates this week, definetely feels like the market expects something big tomorrow. so you know i will be looking to short dollars on a bad number

btw, the new home sales release is going to be a huge one, so that may effect market reaction to durable goods. the housing market seems to be the hot topic this week so traders might use durable goods report to position themselves for housing report.
Relax and be happy.
  • #14
  • Jan 25, 2007 10:36pm Jan 25, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting merlin
ive seen a few high estimates this week, definetely feels like the market expects something big tomorrow. so you know i will be looking to short dollars on a bad number

btw, the new home sales release is going to be a huge one, so that may effect market reaction to durable goods. the housing market seems to be the hot topic this week so traders might use durable goods report to position themselves for housing report.
Why is housing a hot topic this week, the only thing to talk about or something? Thought everyone seemed to think we are getting a bit better in the housing market? Wheres this hot topic talked about anyhow?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #15
  • Jan 26, 2007 6:39am Jan 26, 2007 6:39am
Estimates from various sources:

dailyfx
Durable Goods: 3.5%
ex Transportation: 0.5%

briefings.com
Durable Goods: 7.0%
ex Transportation: 0.0%

FF
Durable Goods: 3.2%
ex Transportation: 0.5%

FXCM's IFR
All USD news REMOVED! Translation: "Dont trade US news with FXCM".

Market consensus for ex transportation is 0.5%, therefore if Actual is Higher = long USD; if Actual is Lower = short USD.

Remember, USD is bullish based on Grep Ip's comments. a short USD may be muted.
  • #16
  • Jan 26, 2007 6:50am Jan 26, 2007 6:50am
Who here is hoping for a just slightly crappier Durrable Goods core so we can fade it and hold position going dollar long as the house market gets a nice upswing to carry us in further profits
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #17
  • Jan 26, 2007 6:56am Jan 26, 2007 6:56am
I expect cable to reach 2.0000 the next weeks, so what I wish today is a strong US Durable Goods to go long at 1.9515 (62% fibo). Maybe a buy right now would be a good strategy too at 50% fibo.
  • #18
  • Jan 26, 2007 7:39am Jan 26, 2007 7:39am
Deviation +1.8
Revision: +0.1
  • #19
  • Jan 26, 2007 7:52am Jan 26, 2007 7:52am
went short at 8:29.50am +21 then went long +24 now holding long again at 1.9585 s/l 15
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #20
  • Jan 26, 2007 8:00am Jan 26, 2007 8:00am
everything is long pound
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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