What do you think about the news tomorrow? Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment claims???
I have heard that the history is 40 pipes for this news.
I have heard that the history is 40 pipes for this news.
- #6
- Edited 2:28am Aug 24, 2006 12:43am | Edited 2:28am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,924 Posts
July 27 Result came out 3.1 vs 1.9 expectation - a deviation of 1.2. The move was significant with a 25+ pips down. On this day, I lost 17 pips; my entries were too far (perhaps 20 pips away?).
June 23 result came out -0.3 vs 0.4 expectation - a deviation of 1.1. The move was very insignificant with a 10+ pips spike on the first minute, retraced back to +2 then forwarded to +20 by 4th minute.
May 24 result came out -4.8 vs -0.5 expectation - a deviation of 4.3. The move was significant with a 25+ pips up.
We know that the more the result deviates from consensus, the more movement we'd see on the money. However, compare July and June's result; the deviation is almost the same and yet, the movement for June was small followed by a complete reversal on the 5th minute.
April 26 result came out 6.1 vs 1.7 expectation - a deviation of 4.4. The move was a significant 50+ pips down.
March 25 result came out 2.6 vs 1.2 expectation - a deviation of 1.4. The move was initially precarious but totalled 40+ after 15 minutes.
5 Historic data shows that there was 1 small movememnt, 2 strong movements, and 2 average movements.
Suggested Strategy: Pray that the figure is off by at least 2.0!
Conservative TP (10 perhaps), Conservative Lots (1/2 to 1/4 of your normal lot sizes)
June 23 result came out -0.3 vs 0.4 expectation - a deviation of 1.1. The move was very insignificant with a 10+ pips spike on the first minute, retraced back to +2 then forwarded to +20 by 4th minute.
May 24 result came out -4.8 vs -0.5 expectation - a deviation of 4.3. The move was significant with a 25+ pips up.
We know that the more the result deviates from consensus, the more movement we'd see on the money. However, compare July and June's result; the deviation is almost the same and yet, the movement for June was small followed by a complete reversal on the 5th minute.
April 26 result came out 6.1 vs 1.7 expectation - a deviation of 4.4. The move was a significant 50+ pips down.
March 25 result came out 2.6 vs 1.2 expectation - a deviation of 1.4. The move was initially precarious but totalled 40+ after 15 minutes.
5 Historic data shows that there was 1 small movememnt, 2 strong movements, and 2 average movements.
Suggested Strategy: Pray that the figure is off by at least 2.0!
Conservative TP (10 perhaps), Conservative Lots (1/2 to 1/4 of your normal lot sizes)
What do you think about the news tomorrow? Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment claims???
I have heard that the history is 40 pipes for this news.
Don't get me wrong.....I love to straddle news, but I've paired it down to just a few biggies per month............I need T/A to keep me active and putting $$ in my pocket.
You might consider mixing in some straightforward, simple chart systems while you are figuring out which releases are worthwhile to straddle, plus it will help you understand the market better in general.
Just my opinion.......
