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Aspen Trading Group - Let's Talk Charts

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 31, 2008 8:13am Mar 31, 2008 8:13am
All right folks, I thought it might be a good idea to add yet another thread to talk charts, but perhaps with more of a focus on Elliott Wave.

I will kick off the first post with some basic analysis of spot gold and the relationship to AUD/USD. As the days and weeks go by I/we can continue to build upon these themes and have some good dialog.

AUD/USD & Gold

As you can see from this chart of Gold vs. AUD/USD the 2 are closely linked. Combine this with weak equity markets and you can quickly see the potential for lower levels in AUD/USD going forward.

The near-term forecast (next several hours) for gold a bit unclear, but the overall trend remains down.
  • #2
  • Mar 31, 2008 5:08pm Mar 31, 2008 5:08pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
All right folks, I thought it might be a good idea to add yet another thread to talk charts, but perhaps with more of a focus on Elliott Wave.

I will kick off the first post with some basic analysis of spot gold Gold vs. AUD/USD the 2 are closely linked.
Right, I'll donate a chart


The usual "ABC until proven otherwise" start for me, and then let's see where and how we go once we move past A's low.

As for AUD and Gold - the simplest link imho is that a strong USD = weaker AUDUSD and Gold. As for the equity link, that's a bit problematic, since we've had periods of weak equities + weak usd + weak USDJPY for carry unwind = AUDUSD actually higher.
So imho it's no longer as simple as equities weak = AUDUSD weak, but depends on whether or not we're in a strong or weak USD equity slump phase.

Btw - I also count 5 EURUSD waves if you ask me(last upmove, 5 subwaves that form III.5 possibly).
End of a rather big III? IV coming? Now that'd be a rush for the USD.

Anyway, the Gold chart(850$ is such a great number):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_0803_31_abc.gif Size: 10 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3
  • Mar 31, 2008 5:16pm Mar 31, 2008 5:16pm
obviously the AUDUSD and gold both have the dollar in common, so its easy to see why the charts look like that. but is the AUDUSD more correlated than say the EURUSD? and for what reason? my guess would be the high aussie interest rates aka the carry trade.
Relax and be happy.
  • #4
  • Apr 1, 2008 7:57am Apr 1, 2008 7:57am
Hmmm, correction or something bigger developing? Love to hear some thoughts.
Attached Image
  • #5
  • Apr 1, 2008 10:10am Apr 1, 2008 10:10am
Update to Gold - more alphabet soup
First target hit.
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6
  • Apr 1, 2008 11:43am Apr 1, 2008 11:43am
agree there 'seeking' - gold at support, dollar index at resistance - time to 'scalp' eur/usd to long side - just a trade though, not a love affair, out below 1.5560
  • #7
  • Apr 2, 2008 8:03am Apr 2, 2008 8:03am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Hmmm, correction or something bigger developing? Love to hear some thoughts.
I've got a 5 count on the first impulse and oddly enough the retrace was only .382 so far.
So if we move past the low, that'd put me a bit at odds what kind of move that's supposed to be(far too small to be a 1-2-3 that I'm used to at least).
Since that doesn't make sense, something has to be wrong(in my count).

Oh well. Maybe the drop now is just another rather steep retrace for the B or another move higher / second part of the retrace
(it doesn't only read clueless, I AM clueless at the moment.)

Here are the rudimentary counts / projections regardless.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_080402_1h_count.gif Size: 13 KB
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8
  • Apr 2, 2008 1:06pm Apr 2, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting SeekingLight
So if we move past the low, that'd put me a bit at odds what kind of move that's supposed to be(far too small to be a 1-2-3 that I'm used to at least).
Since that doesn't make sense, something has to be wrong(in my count).

Oh well. Maybe the drop now is just another rather steep retrace for the B or another move higher / second part of the retrace
The .382 retrace just got surpassed, eliminating the possibility of it having been II, making it more likely that we're in the process of an ABC=>II IF we are to be right on the I down, II up, III down count(i.e. setting up for a new low to come).
Otherwise we might just take out the high

We'll know what it is once either side's extreme is taken out

EW - always right afterwards ;p
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #9
  • Last Post: Apr 2, 2008 2:31pm Apr 2, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
Hmmm, correction or something bigger developing? Love to hear some thoughts.
I would be interested in your Macro EW outlook in the eurusd...
Check Mate GAME OVER
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