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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,241
  • Mar 29, 2008 3:05pm Mar 29, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting bshadroo
thx for the reply .but i actually dont satisfied why it is a high risk trade?
i think price was in a triangle and now it breaks down the triangle with a TC signal in macd and every thing is looks ready to a down move.if it happend during the week i'd have no doubt to enter but my only concern is that i should enter at the market open and i dont like trade at the early hours of the week .
any way ,your post makes me think more about this setup ,many thanks, and i appreciate others and specially phillip's oponion-sharing about this thing.
If that was a signal during the week I will take it eyes closed. Tails on previous bars as well. I just dont like the take a trade on Monday based on a Friday signal. Not that I am saying that it does not work. Only part of my way.
  • #13,242
  • Mar 29, 2008 3:11pm Mar 29, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
If that was a signal during the week I will take it eyes closed. Tails on previous bars as well. I just dont like the take a trade on Monday based on a Friday signal. Not that I am saying that it does not work. Only part of my way.
thanks for the answer and the monthly wrapup.
i wait for this TC in EUR and CHF samoe days in last week ,but it happends at the last hour of the week . i also dont like to trade monday morning.
thats funny to see the same thing was happend at the start of last week.a nice TC off the 8 and the TL.last week it worked .this week ,who knows ,lets wait and see.
(to be honest i dont like it work ,cause im not going to take it)
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  • #13,243
  • Mar 29, 2008 3:14pm Mar 29, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting bshadroo
thanks for the answer and the monthly wrapup.
i wait for this TC in EUR and CHF all the week ,but it happends at the last hour of the week . i also dont like to trade monday morning.

I know how you feel. Sit and wait and then it happens Friday. Sometimes when you have to go and do some business the markets move just as if they are watching you, knowing you are not in front of your computor. It is unfortuanetly part of the game.
  • #13,244
  • Mar 29, 2008 3:32pm Mar 29, 2008 3:32pm
ok .im drawing lines on my charts to become ready for next week.
phillip showed us a h1 entry (supporting by h4)last friday.could we have another one next week?i think a down move is more possible ,price is in a down h1 channel and resisting by 365,89,200,21 and 8 ma's in h1, but it supports by 200 and 365 in h4.
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  • #13,245
  • Mar 29, 2008 9:45pm Mar 29, 2008 9:45pm
Quoting bshadroo
thx for the reply .but i actually dont satisfied why it is a high risk trade?
I look at the 1H much more than the 4H - and you are correct that the 4H looks very good by itself.

But I am trying to show how I see the 1H price movement as it will help the traders that are already very familiar with the 4H rhythm to pinpoint their entries.

Let me see if I can be more clear. Look at the 1H CHF chart I posted and pretend it is a 4H chart, how would you trade it? If you are a trend trader you would wait for it to move out of this consolidation. But assume you have to trade it, how would you trade it. You would conclude price is ranging and should trade it as per Phillips' range trading teachings - which is taking trades at the extreme of the boundary. If one cannot see that the 1H price action is ranging then one does not have enough price action experience and none of my posts will make sense.

Now if you know the 1H (lower timeframe) is ranging and the 4H timeframe is trending, remember that a pullback on the 4H usually/sometimes result in a lower tmeframe ranging price action - which is what the CHF/EUR is currently doing. This is the exact type of price action I look for in my entries with the 4H trending then pullback resulting in 1H ranging movement.

So the ideal entry on the 1H price action is at the top extreme of the channel range w/ anticipation of a 4H TC forming - as I pointed out on the CHF chart the ideal entry was the doji at the top of the range. I did this exact entry but on the EUR on Friday.

I know this may seem confusion but I hope some will benefit from this info and hope you see why I consider entry here at the low extreme of the channel high risk - one should have already entered at the other extreme, taken half profit and sitting for a risk free potential breakout which may or may not happen from here.

It is also my finding that during these extended 1H price ranging movement that the 4H MACD often give good looking false TC signals and the main reason I replied to your post.

Again hope that makes sense.
  • #13,246
  • Mar 29, 2008 10:40pm Mar 29, 2008 10:40pm
Please tell me what is lower low,lower high,higher low and higher high.
  • #13,247
  • Edited 12:21pm Mar 30, 2008 1:02am | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting boris777
Please tell me what is lower low,lower high,higher low and higher high.
Hello Boris777,

When market is trending between boundaries, the terms HH,HL,LH,LL are used to identify the bottom and top of the channel. Support and resistance areas. In reference to the current 1 hour GBPUSD chart, there are 2 channels. Green uptrend channel and blue downtrend channel. When the market is moving in an uptrend we get higher highs at the top of the channel trend line, and higher lows at the bottom trend line (green channel). At point A, the price failed to go up to the top green trend line. Instead it broke the bottom trend line, became resistance and formed a Lower high. The uptrend failed and changed to a downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows (Blue channel).

Regards,
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  • #13,248
  • Mar 30, 2008 3:32am Mar 30, 2008 3:32am
Quoting maxster
I look at the 1H much more than the 4H - and you are correct that the 4H looks very good by itself.

But I am trying to show how I see the 1H price movement as it will help the traders that are already very familiar with the 4H rhythm to pinpoint their entries.

Let me see if I can be more clear. Look at the 1H CHF chart I posted and pretend it is a 4H chart, how would you trade it? If you are a trend trader you would wait for it to move out of this consolidation. But assume you have to trade it, how would you trade it. You would conclude price is ranging and should trade it as per Phillips' range trading teachings - which is taking trades at the extreme of the boundary. If one cannot see that the 1H price action is ranging then one does not have enough price action experience and none of my posts will make sense.

Now if you know the 1H (lower timeframe) is ranging and the 4H timeframe is trending, remember that a pullback on the 4H usually/sometimes result in a lower tmeframe ranging price action - which is what the CHF/EUR is currently doing. This is the exact type of price action I look for in my entries with the 4H trending then pullback resulting in 1H ranging movement.

So the ideal entry on the 1H price action is at the top extreme of the channel range w/ anticipation of a 4H TC forming - as I pointed out on the CHF chart the ideal entry was the doji at the top of the range. I did this exact entry but on the EUR on Friday.

I know this may seem confusion but I hope some will benefit from this info and hope you see why I consider entry here at the low extreme of the channel high risk - one should have already entered at the other extreme, taken half profit and sitting for a risk free potential breakout which may or may not happen from here.

It is also my finding that during these extended 1H price ranging movement that the 4H MACD often give good looking false TC signals and the main reason I replied to your post.

Again hope that makes sense.
dear maxter,i appreciate ur patient to answering me.i remember befor i was confusing with palmer's trades and now im going to learn his trading style in H1 enteries and tring them in my demo account.now i think u r combining h4 and h1 to enter the trade and waiting for possible pullbacks in h4 because of the price action in lower TFs.
but in this case i think price breaks the lower TL/boundary and ready to go south and MAY never comeback to the upper boundary so if i wanna trade this setup i can wait for a pull back to the broken TL maximum.
another important thing is i think trading in upper boundaries could be more risky that a breakout trade (forexample in a triangle like this usdchf) ,specially in this case we have a clear tc signal and phillip said he would enter if it was during the week with closing eyes.
anyway , i really wanna ask u please post ur trades (specially h1 trades), i think there could be alot of interesting things.
thx
  • #13,249
  • Mar 30, 2008 4:15am Mar 30, 2008 4:15am
Hi , I have a question about H4 Timeframe

as you know , there are some brokers that work on GMT , some other work on CET and so on !
so the H4 candles that we can see may deffer from others , in this case indicators may be wrong on this timeframe , because we have another Open , close , high and low prices .
please help me on this problem
regards
Mohammad reza
  • #13,250
  • Mar 30, 2008 5:58am Mar 30, 2008 5:58am
Quoting mohamadreza
Hi , I have a question about H4 Timeframe

as you know , there are some brokers that work on GMT , some other work on CET and so on !
so the H4 candles that we can see may deffer from others , in this case indicators may be wrong on this timeframe , because we have another Open , close , high and low prices .
please help me on this problem
regards
Mohammad reza
dear mohammad reza
this thing has beed discussed many times in this thread .if i wanna answer short, i'd say u can trust on ur platform's time, maybe u enter earlier/later than others but everybody will be in same direction or u can enter the trade based on H1 to avoid big SL .
my platform in GMT+1 but i usually check the GMT platform also and if there is a signal then i comeback to mine and see wheter i can enter on h1 or not.
for more informations u can go back pages and look for many posts about this thing.
hope it helps u
  • #13,251
  • Mar 30, 2008 8:22am Mar 30, 2008 8:22am
Hello all, march is almost gone with alots of ups and downs, again we hear a lot of cry about euro crossing 1.6 as we did bfr fed decisions to cut rates on 18. So as we see now on the charts the market seems confused and people are predicting either it will go up or down. I have done some analysis keeping in view technicals and previous experience. I was trading very well on Phillips system till 18 march when I got away with the news and the hype and took a position against the system. My mistake and I had to suffer quite much, but I learned my lesson not to get carried away with predictions on the news that other make. Now I want to present my opinion that where the market will move next week, as most ppl think euro will cross 1.6 next week, I have some different opinion, you see the MACD, its showing a down trend, and its peak has also crossed 45 by mile clearly indicating the market has to go down for a while. Now when we look back on 18 march we again see the same situation, the news was fed will cut rates by 100% or 75% and he euro will shoot up to 1.6, but look wat happened, just after the news the dollar got stronger and it came all the way till 1.53, thts the same thing happening here now, though I am not saying history repeats it self its just the believe in the system, as Phillips said in his lessons that fundamentals make the technical’s and we should follow them not the news.
Looking at the chart I would predict a stronger dollar for a while and euro may go down to 1.55 before going up again.
This is just my analysis on my experience and I would like Mr Phillips to comment on this
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  • #13,252
  • Mar 30, 2008 9:43am Mar 30, 2008 9:43am
I agree with u thou. It seems like double top is formed n $hit might be down... at lease a while...
  • #13,253
  • Mar 30, 2008 11:57am Mar 30, 2008 11:57am
i cannot say that .it can goes either way.up or down .(even up is more possible)
(just my oponion and could be wrong)
  • #13,254
  • Mar 30, 2008 1:19pm Mar 30, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting Nipper
Hello Boris777,

When market is trending between boundaries, the terms HH,HL,LH,LL are used to identify the bottom and top of the channel. Support and resistance areas. In reference to the current 1 hour GBPUSD chart, there are 2 channels. Green uptrend channel and blue downtrend channel. When the market is moving in an uptrend we get higher highs at the top of the channel trend line, and higher lows at the bottom trend line (green channel). At point A, the price failed to go up to the top green trend line. Instead it broke the bottom trend line, became resistance and formed a Lower high. The uptrend failed and changed to a downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows (Blue channel).

Regards,
Thank you very much for your explanation of the terms. Before I read your post I had an idea about them but I wasn't able to make a clear distinction between them. Now it is easier to recognize them.
  • #13,255
  • Mar 30, 2008 1:42pm Mar 30, 2008 1:42pm
Here is a written copy of the daily wrapup for the 28th of March.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc wrapup for the 28th of March.doc   28 KB | 478 downloads
  • #13,256
  • Mar 30, 2008 5:06pm Mar 30, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting clparks
Hello, I am still reading the posts, so I have a long way to go. But I have noticed folks asking about trading brokers. I am currently using Primiere Trade program and FXDD as the broker. After more reading, I am trying to locate a broker that I won't need a program to use. Any potential ideas? I will read up on any suggestions before I lock in and also run a demo with them for a bit, but I am just trying to check out a few suggestions from the more experienced and wiser traders out there. Any input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks

Still Learning
clparks
Not sure what you mean by "I am trying to locate a broker that I won't need a program to use."
  • #13,257
  • Mar 30, 2008 8:40pm Mar 30, 2008 8:40pm
With the exception of the cable, all of the other three major pairs are consolidating right now per the ma's. Cable in the process of forming a short TC but my guess is I'll be fast asleep per the move. Note: the 200 and the 365 are close and could hold price here so it might be a very good idea to use those as profit targets if the R:R is there...
  • #13,258
  • Mar 30, 2008 8:41pm Mar 30, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting bshadroo
but in this case i think price breaks the lower TL/boundary and ready to go south and MAY never comeback to the upper boundary so if i wanna trade this setup i can wait for a pull back to the broken TL maximum.
First I would like to say there are a million ways to trade and you need something that suits you that is the most important.

However when I look at the current CHF price action I define the ranging boundary at around high 1.0000 and low at 0.9900 - I value raw S/R levels way more than trendline levels so to me there was no downside break. But that is just how I like to see consolidation areas.

The important point to take note is that the 4H had a strong price move - its pullback sometimes result in ranging action at lower timeframe. So the high proability trades are at the range boundaries in direction of 4H trend.
  • #13,259
  • Edited Mar 31, 2008 3:02am Mar 30, 2008 9:43pm | Edited Mar 31, 2008 3:02am
Reading thru some of the old posts and reread this..
"When the playing field is between two major MA's, price may ignore the smaller MA's"
Thought it might be helpful to some considering the GBPUSD is between the 89MA and the 200MA
Raymond

Edit: Well, there goes the ranging idea. Going to wait til it retraces back to the 200MA and then begin to move away on the 1 hour to go short
  • #13,260
  • Edited 3:42am Mar 31, 2008 3:00am | Edited 3:42am
anybody use MIG here? the H1 candles closes 5minutes earlier in my platform ?
do u have same problem
edit : i chat with them and they said the will fix it soon
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