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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,221
  • Mar 28, 2008 1:56am Mar 28, 2008 1:56am
Quoting Palmer
I just got a PM from pips4undme 'Donna' and she is settling in to her new digs. I'm hoping she'll be back 'here' sometime next month. For some of the new faces, pips adds a lot to this thread with some of the economic reasons why currencies do what they do along with valuable chart analysis. It'll be good to have her back....
This is a wonderful news!!!! We all miss Pips here!
  • #13,222
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:19am Mar 28, 2008 2:19am
Quoting Palmer
I just got a PM from pips4undme 'Donna' and she is settling in to her new digs. I'm hoping she'll be back 'here' sometime next month. For some of the new faces, pips adds a lot to this thread with some of the economic reasons why currencies do what they do along with valuable chart analysis. It'll be good to have her back....
The famous pips4undme is a girl! Wonderful, I read many her valuable posts in this thread. Why does not she come here long time?
Hope she can share more experience and success with us here.

It seems that the female are great traders such as Rebecca, pips4undme.
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #13,223
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:35am Mar 28, 2008 2:35am
Quoting aihua5
The famous pips4undme is a girl! Wonderful, I read many her valuable posts in this thread. Why does not she come here long time?
Hope she can share more experience and success with us here.

It seems that the female are great traders such as Rebecca, pips4undme.
women are more disciplined than men... around the world is the same... in most of the cases, more responsible as well. Most traders are men, because most men are losing money, making engine working out and giving money to brokers... so, men, be aware that if you are gambling... ask your girlfriend or wife to manage your account...
  • #13,224
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:46am Mar 28, 2008 2:46am
Quoting arodriguez
women are more disciplined than men... around the world is the same... in most of the cases, more responsible as well. Most traders are men, because most men are losing money, making engine working out and giving money to brokers... so, men, be aware that if you are gambling... ask your girlfriend or wife to manage your account...
Yes, they are very disciplined.....I must be married to a man then.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #13,225
  • Edited 3:23am Mar 28, 2008 3:08am | Edited 3:23am
look at my h1entry and loss yesterday.i think my mistake was my entry at the late times of the day but still im waiting for a TC .any comments please?
aftab and arodriguez :my wife hates forex and football,but i think women are more patient if the do forex and men can follow things better ,no different it is a ball or it is a price ,so i think its better to work couple,man follow the price and woman say him dont hurry and manage his account .brokers know this fact and thats why always in ecconomic advertisements there is a woman who is waitnig to go out for shopping when the man is trading.:
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  • #13,226
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:41am Mar 28, 2008 3:41am
Quoting bshadroo
look at my h1entry and loss yesterday.i think my mistake was my entry at the late times of the day but still im waiting for a TC .any comments please?
aftab and arodriguez :my wife hates forex and football,but i think women are more patient if the do forex and men can follow things better ,no different it is a ball or it is a price ,so i think its better to work couple,man follow the price and woman say him dont hurry and manage his account .brokers know this fact and thats why always in ecconomic advertisements there is a woman who is waitnig to go out for shopping when the man is trading.:
I dont see a 4 hour confirmation for that TC. otherwise it looked good, right off the TL and the 8 EMA.
  • #13,227
  • Edited 4:30am Mar 28, 2008 4:16am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting bshadroo
look at my h1entry and loss yesterday.i think my mistake was my entry at the late times of the day but still im waiting for a TC .any comments please?
aftab and arodriguez :my wife hates forex and football,but i think women are more patient if the do forex and men can follow things better ,no different it is a ball or it is a price ,so i think its better to work couple,man follow the price and woman say him dont hurry and manage his account .brokers know this fact and thats why always in ecconomic advertisements there is a woman who is waitnig to go out for shopping when the man is trading.:
When Phillip takes breakouts he puts the stop near the broken trendline and waits for the pullback to enter, it was a risky trade because the price was moving in zigzag around the emas before the entry.
It's better wait till market shows you a clear direction.
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  • #13,228
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:06am Mar 28, 2008 7:06am
Quoting cchoudhu
Hi Merrit, can you pls describe what you mean by the consolidation triangle

many thanks
c

Hi cchoudhu,

A consolidation triangle is simply price consolidating (becoming less volitile or contracting) or (the range of movement narrowing) in a wedge-shaped pattern. It's all part of the natural motion of a trending market. Price moves rapidly for a while, then this movement is followed by consolidation. Then this is followed by movement again.

In these situations you want to wait for a break above or below the triangle before entering a trade.

I'll show what I mean:

Price made a strong run upward after finding support on the 200 SMA, then consolidated in a wedge.

Unfortunately in this example there was a "false breakout" to the downside before the market showed what it really wanted to do. Nothing is perfect in this forex world.

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Fortunately, although you may get involved in a false breakout occassionally, you must have the strength to realize when you ARE indeed involved in one and exit (possibly reverse) your position. I have been taught, and seen in real life, just as in this example, false breakouts are actually one of the strongest signals there are. I think of it as a slow moving "tail".

Hope this helped.
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #13,229
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:09am Mar 28, 2008 7:09am
Quoting Pip_eater
Hi Merrittb. Thanks for the file, however I am having trouble with it. I pasted the file into Metatrader4/experts/indicators, then in MT4: Insert-Indicators-Custom-BreakEvenExpertv1-10, but nothing happens. Any advice, or maybe a screen shot of what it should look like.
Thanks
Hi Pip_eater,

You don't want to put the file into the indicators folder (as it is not an indicator). Just put it in the EXPERTS folder. Restart, open your navigator, open "expert advisors", and drag it on to the chart. Should work just fine then.

Also make sure your settings allow for an EA to run and trade live.

Best,
Merritt
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #13,230
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:09am Mar 28, 2008 8:09am
Quoting aihua5
The famous pips4undme is a girl! Wonderful, I read many her valuable posts in this thread. Why does not she come here long time?
Hope she can share more experience and success with us here.

It seems that the female are great traders such as Rebecca, pips4undme.
Donna made the big move from California to Arkansas I believe and had to make a stop in Texas through it all. Sounds like they are still getting settled in. This is one of time where trading has to be put on the back burner and life has to be taken care of first. It'll be good to have her back when she's plugged in again...
  • #13,231
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:16am Mar 28, 2008 8:16am
Quoting vette1974
Let me know if this doesn't belong in this thread and I will remove it.

This is something I found on another site. IMO an interesting read.


38 steps to becoming a trader

1. We accumulate information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.
2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
8. We start to listen to 'outside news' and to other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to 'donate'.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.
13. We get 'over-confident' and the market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we anticipated.
MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALIZE WORK IS INVOLVED.
15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow the rules.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and our trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful)and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37. We are making more money than we ever dreamed possible.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.
I've been a victim of #13 and #24 more than once which eventually got me to #31. I'm learning to skip #34 and continue with #35. #36 is an ultimate goal with #37 viewed as still being 'in the works'...#38...life is too short but I'll check things off as I go.

Thanks vette.
  • #13,232
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:46am Mar 28, 2008 8:46am
Quoting aftab
Hi Palmer (and to everbody else),

demo trading this one: Palmer please comment on my analysis here.

Probable LONG: I see two things happening. The first price going straight up (seems to be happening) and on the other hand there is a probability that it would go down and then form a tail. If this happens, I will go down to the 1HR and wait for price to show me the move up - if that is what it is going to do. Similar to your last post.

If not, then look to be going short - right. Will analyse then but right now price is above the 89EMA - so think long.

As with regards to price going straight up, do you think the candles on the 1HR suggest that I should have been long already with a tighter stop loss? What would you have done? I would still like to wait for the 4:00AM candle to close to decide what I should do.

My target profits would be 2.0128 - resistance, I bring the rest of the lots to break even and then look at 2.0183 trendline.

Palmer, lets say you read this after the move, please share with me - and that includes anybody how they would trade this one.

Thank you.

I 'think' I have drawn your last bar of your 4hr chart at the vertical line on the chart here. What I see is a doji right at the 89 with the 8 and 21 almost within that same candle. To be honest with you, I would have not considered a trade here at all because of the convergence of the three lower ma's. Also, I only look at the 1hr charts when there is a high probability set up on the 4hr such as price coming back to the 21 or price is hitting a support/resistance area (trendline or channel) again. I look for those trades that have repeating patterns (hitting a trendline or channel again) or the 21 area either a rebound or a close on the other side of it, and just key on those. It takes a lot of guesswork out of things because these are the patterns or set-ups that are easier to see the history of and how the market played out. When the ma's are converging I let the price action leave that area first, wait for the rhythm to kick in, then wait for an entry (a pause in that trend) , then take action. Basically, I'm waiting for the high probability set-ups. For the most part I have just been looking at the EURUSD only for over a year with this method. I am just now thinking about adding another pair to follow in the event the EURUSD starts to consolidate or not look 'clean' to me. Now, it's a matter of what pair to follow...another task.

Hope some of this helps. For me, it's all about letting the market flow.
Attached Image
  • #13,233
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:21am Mar 28, 2008 10:21am
I had a trade on the GBPUSD an hour ago

Reason: Price broke through the 89 and it comes back to the 21 (standard rule). I started looking at the 1 hr when the price came back to the 21 and entered on the next big candle.

I have never ran a trade w/o MACD confirmation my emotions are a little wacked out

Edit:First TP hit moved SL to break even
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  • #13,234
  • Mar 28, 2008 12:26pm Mar 28, 2008 12:26pm
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 28 March2008.zip   799 KB | 1,286 downloads
  • #13,235
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:03pm Mar 28, 2008 10:03pm
Instead of posting my EUR trade of Friday morning I elected to post this chart to help answer the question "When has price found support on a pullback".

Again I mainly trade Phillip's TC pullback to 4H 8-21 EMA after price has made a nice trending move - after the strong move I monitor the pullback swings with fibs and look for low risk entry anticapting a TC resuming the previous strong price movement.

This chart was from a couple of weeks ago - The blue fib levels are 38 - 62% fibs of a previous strong price movement - I normally just use 1H but this chart is 15M to give a better view of the swings.

Instead of waiting for the 4H MACD to give me a TC signal - I wait for price to find a strong support base along with momentum shifting back to the previous trend direction. During these pullbacks or corrective cycles once price has found a support base it will usually either resume the previous trend or range.

If it ranges I take a low risk entry at the extreme of the range with supporting price action (doji) & take 50% profit as price goes to the other extreme of the channel and position myself for a risk free breakout.

If it resumes the trend I enter on a minor swing pullback.

One of the greatest things that have helped my trading is my ability to objectively detect that price is ranging. The next greatest thing is applying the same analysis on the higher timeframe and lower timeframe.
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  • #13,236
  • Mar 29, 2008 8:36am Mar 29, 2008 8:36am
Hello, I am still reading the posts, so I have a long way to go. But I have noticed folks asking about trading brokers. I am currently using Primiere Trade program and FXDD as the broker. After more reading, I am trying to locate a broker that I won't need a program to use. Any potential ideas? I will read up on any suggestions before I lock in and also run a demo with them for a bit, but I am just trying to check out a few suggestions from the more experienced and wiser traders out there. Any input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks

Still Learning
clparks
  • #13,237
  • Edited 8:49am Mar 29, 2008 8:38am | Edited 8:49am
i have a tc on my chart(also there is a tc in eurusd but i think this one is more beautifull) but it happends at the market close friday.
now the question is can i sell(trust this signal) at the market opening?
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  • #13,238
  • Mar 29, 2008 12:53pm Mar 29, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting bshadroo
i have a tc on my chart(also there is a tc in eurusd but i think this one is more beautifull) but it happends at the market close friday.
now the question is can i sell(trust this signal) at the market opening?
I don't follow the CHF but yes very similiar to EUR. I took a long on the EUR at the range extreme Friday morning trade is already closed.

On the EUR I am going to wait to see how price acts with the last 1H swing before entering another, similiar with the CHF. Price may continue to range in this corrective cycle - no one knows for sure when it will break - especially not the MACD 4H TC indicator - so if you enter a trade right here I would consider it high risk because you are trading against current 1H market conditions.

But if you understand what price is doing right now (ranging) and position your trade entry at the correct place anticipating that price will resume a previous higher timeframe trend - you increase the proability of your trade. Because you are trading according to current lower timeframe conditions in direction of a higher timeframe trend.

Hope that makes sense.
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  • #13,239
  • Mar 29, 2008 1:45pm Mar 29, 2008 1:45pm
EurUsd
GbpUsd
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf GbpUsd Trades for March2008.pdf   169 KB | 1,170 downloads
File Type: pdf EurUsd Trades for March2008.pdf   253 KB | 1,222 downloads
File Type: zip 2008 -March2008 MACD 4Hour.zip   820 KB | 1,520 downloads
  • #13,240
  • Edited 3:06pm Mar 29, 2008 2:51pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting maxster
I don't follow the CHF but yes very similiar to EUR. I took a long on the EUR at the range extreme Friday morning trade is already closed.

On the EUR I am going to wait to see how price acts with the last 1H swing before entering another, similiar with the CHF. Price may continue to range in this corrective cycle - no one knows for sure when it will break - especially not the MACD 4H TC indicator - so if you enter a trade right here I would consider it high risk because you are trading against current 1H market conditions.

But if you understand what price is doing right now (ranging) and position your trade entry at the correct place anticipating that price will resume a previous higher timeframe trend - you increase the proability of your trade. Because you are trading according to current lower timeframe conditions in direction of a higher timeframe trend.

Hope that makes sense.
thx for the reply .but i actually dont satisfied why it is a high risk trade?
i think price was in a triangle and now it breaks down the triangle with a TC signal in macd and every thing is looks ready to a down move.if it happend during the week i'd have no doubt to enter but my only concern is that i should enter at the market open and i dont like trade at the early hours of the week .
any way ,your post makes me think more about this setup ,many thanks, and i appreciate others and specially phillip's oponion-sharing about this thing.
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