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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #2,221
  • Edited 8:22am Mar 28, 2008 5:10am | Edited 8:22am
I'm still in the market from yesturday with same trade entered at 1.57857 have my stop loss at 1.57200 wich I moved down from 1.57240 of yesturday. Feeling a strong support at 1.5725 and market is just having alot of noise lately so I'm not moving my stop. Well wichever way it goes, its not going to be a loss that kills me so I'll play this out and will see what happens. If market turns down, there will be a possibility that AH will get me out.

I have moved my s/l to break even to 1.5790

update: closed trade at 1.5790 +4 pips

looking now to see if 1.5750 holds, if it puls up I might enter again. If it does not hold, looking for 1.5600 to enter next.
  • #2,222
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:11am Mar 28, 2008 6:11am
Quoting kaunasny
I'm still in the market from yesturday with same trade entered at 1.57857 have my stop loss at 1.57200 wich I moved down from 1.57240 of yesturday. Feeling a strong support at 1.5725 and market is just having alot of noise lately so I'm not moving my stop. Well wichever way it goes, its not going to be a loss that kills me so I'll play this out and will see what happens. If market turns down, there will be a possibility that AH will get me out.
A lot of indecision in the market. Appears to be ranging, hitting the resistance at 1.5820ish. It might be rolling over as it did a couple of weeks ago.

K8
  • #2,223
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:35am Mar 28, 2008 9:35am
.

I believe that now would be an interesting time to try the Counter Trend Strategy....

Go to blog to confirm details.

But I could be wwwrong !!!


.
  • #2,224
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:39am Mar 28, 2008 9:39am
Lol..cmon have some faith jacko.Even if it's wrong, wont be the end of this world.

Quoting jacko
.

I believe that now would be an interesting time to try the Counter Trend Strategy....

Go to blog to confirm details.

But I could be wwwrong !!!


.
  • #2,225
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:57am Mar 28, 2008 10:57am
As a newbie I'm interested in others opinions of the negative side of useing the trailing stop?

Would just setting a 50 pip stop be better in instances of volatility where your stop gets brought up before you take profit, then then the euro sinks down and you get stopped out prematurely?

Another question I have is if your useing this method with the 50 pip TS what is the goal for takeing your profits? 50, 100 pips?

Thank you for your input and thanks for all the posters makeing this such a wonderful forum.....Blessings to all

John
  • #2,226
  • Mar 28, 2008 11:12am Mar 28, 2008 11:12am
Quoting trader john
As a newbie I'm interested in others opinions of the negative side of useing the trailing stop? You must be prepared to give away some pips!!

Would just setting a 50 pip stop be better in instances of volatility where your stop gets brought up before you take profit, then then the euro sinks down and you get stopped out prematurely? Part of trading, you cant win all trades

Another question I have is if your useing this method with the 50 pip TS what is the goal for takeing your profits? 50, 100 pips? The trailing stop loss will take you out, there is no TP

Thank you for your input and thanks for all the posters makeing this such a wonderful forum.....Blessings to all

John
.
  • #2,227
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:11pm Mar 28, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting yorksh1repud
on the 50 pip s/l jacko recomended the price action had to continue at least another 50 below the s/l before entering the a/h trade.
whith the 100 pip s/l how far below the s/l does price have to drop before we enter the a/h trade.
I think this is an excellent question. I hope a Turtle will weigh in here with their thoughts.

I'm guessing here as I am not privy to the Turtle's private thread, but would think they would try to keep it simple and the trade would need another 100 pips below your dead soldier would be reinstated.

But if that is what the new rule is, I don't know that I would agree with that. Requiring a total of 200 pips of retrace before re-entering may be a bit much. Let it be known the I usually trade on a 1 and 5 minute charts, so I lack a bit of perspective here.

Personally I've decided to follow the Jacko Method completely, with one exception. I'm using 60 pip TSL instead of either the 50 or 100. And yes I will need an additional 60 pip move beyond my Stop Loss-Loss (dead soldier) before that trade is reestablished.

-Sean
  • #2,228
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:27pm Mar 28, 2008 2:27pm
Just let it run past the down soldier by 50 pips then place the AH trade.
Per Jacko in the private blog.

Trade the plan you too will do great. Almost all the info you need for success is in the first 10 or so posts to this forum. The private forum is more about the psychology of trading. Planning your trade; calm and rational thinking; etc...
  • #2,229
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:04pm Mar 28, 2008 3:04pm
Jacko/Anyone

How do i find the blog ? i'd like to read about the counter trend Strategy




Quoting jacko
.

I believe that now would be an interesting time to try the Counter Trend Strategy....

Go to blog to confirm details.

But I could be wwwrong !!!


.
  • #2,230
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:04pm Mar 28, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting trader john
As a newbie I'm interested in others opinions of the negative side of useing the trailing stop?

Would just setting a 50 pip stop be better in instances of volatility where your stop gets brought up before you take profit, then then the euro sinks down and you get stopped out prematurely?

Another question I have is if your useing this method with the 50 pip TS what is the goal for takeing your profits? 50, 100 pips?

Thank you for your input and thanks for all the posters makeing this such a wonderful forum.....Blessings to all

John
The increased volatility is why they increased the 50 pip TSL to 100 pips. It is attempting to address the scenario you've described.

There is no target profit goal. The intent is to let the trend take you where it may. Yes it can be a bit disconcerting. You have to relenquish the idea that you know where the market is going and just let it take you there.

The above answers your question. If you have an hour because I got carried away , you may want to read the rest:

For example, lets say the trend resumes and you buy at 1.5865 (slightly higher than the previous recent high of 1.5858-59) or 1.5920 (slightly higher than the all time high). And I'm sure you've read everyone mentioning the big 1.6000 target coming up. Will we top-out there? Who knows?

So you may have a 100 pip trailing stop and you set the take profit to 1.6000. You are risking 100 pips to make 135 pips or 80 pips depending on your entry. This would be an extremely bad trade. The risk reward ratio blows.

But lets say you allow that no one knows how high is high. So you don't set a target profit. But the longer we remain just below the 1.6000 the more time traders talk among themselves and convince themselves that the resistance at 1.6000 will be significant. These traders focus more and more on the 1.6000 handle and will sell there. Many of the "sophisticated" traders will even go short at that point. The more they will sell that high, the more they will be placing their protective buy stops just above it.

So yes our 1.6000 becomes real resistance. Now what happens? Well there are two scenarios:

1) It holds and you wish you had taken your profit there (or maybe 1.5995 just to be safe), the market retraces to 1.5900, and you are stopped out with a 35 pip gain or a 20 pip loss. Not too bad given that the following may also occur.

2) Some big money funds see the situation much better than you and I and really want to get long. They see the crowd going from long to short here. What do they do? They see all those buy stops above 1.6000 and their mouths begin to water. They buy as much as they can from those shorting the 1.6000 number and those taking profits here. Then they bid at 1.6005 and then they will buy a little more at 1.6010. The buy stops are being triggered, so all those shorts start to cover as quickly as they can putting more buying pressure on. The market jumps to 1.6040 (or higher), More buy stops are being triggered fueling the fire. Then the longs who took their profits at 1.6000 are kicking themselves for not letting their trades run. They decide abit hastily to jump back in, not wanting to miss the boat. The buyers now strongly out-number the sellers and the price begins to spike. The big money begins to sell the position they acquired at 1.6000 to all these scared, panicky, greedy buyers. What will they get for their positions? 1.6100? 1.6200? I don't know nor does anyone else. But aren't you glad you went for the ride with them?

-Sean
  • #2,231
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:13pm Mar 28, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting Student
Jacko/Anyone

How do i find the blog ? i'd like to read about the counter trend Strategy
It's on the private blog for Jacko's students. Really though its like an advanced add-on option for Jacko's strategy, just try to learn the original strategy and if you master that, then try to look for ways to fade the trend if you still feel the need. It goes without saying its not as successful as the with-the-trend strategy (at least so far).
  • #2,232
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:16pm Mar 28, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting seanchicago


-Sean
thats exactly how it happens sometimes - you just need to trail stop at the right moment in time or have EA do it for you.
It could happen in a blink of an eye..


now what are your thoughts at the moment? It seemed like today was "range" trading 100 pips up and down.. and it went up at the closing. in equities it is an indicator of opening higher next day..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,233
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:30pm Mar 28, 2008 3:30pm
Quoting pavlov0032
now what are your thoughts at the moment? It seemed like today was "range" trading 100 pips up and down.. and it went up at the closing. in equities it is an indicator of opening higher next day..
Well I pride myself on not knowing anything! But my gut is saying that we've traded for a several days around the 1.5800 handle and we are only off the alltime high by around a 100 pips. It seems that the sellers and profit-takers are being easily absorbed. That tells me this baby still has legs and wants to move higher. Again I want to emphasize; I don't know anything. It is really my mantra. Whenever I have an opinion, the market normally hits me on the head (sometimes with a baseball bat, but once with a lead pipe, let tell you that hurt.)

That's the beauty of this thread's method. You are better off with no opinion. And that suits me just fine.

-Sean
  • #2,234
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:48pm Mar 28, 2008 3:48pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting seanchicago
The increased volatility is why they increased the 50 pip TSL to 100 pips. It is attempting to address the scenario you've described.

2) Some big money funds see the situation much better than you and I and really want to get long. They see the crowd going from long to short here. What do they do? They see all those buy stops above 1.6000 and their mouths begin to water. They buy as much as they can from those shorting the 1.6000 number and those taking profits here. Then they bid at 1.6005 and then they will buy a little more at 1.6010. The buy stops are being triggered, so all those shorts start to cover as quickly as they can putting more buying pressure on. The market jumps to 1.6040 (or higher), More buy stops are being triggered fueling the fire. Then the longs who took their profits at 1.6000 are kicking themselves for not letting their trades run. They decide abit hastily to jump back in, not wanting to miss the boat. The buyers now strongly out-number the sellers and the price begins to spike. The big money begins to sell the position they acquired at 1.6000 to all these scared, panicky, greedy buyers. What will they get for their positions? 1.6100? 1.6200? I don't know nor does anyone else. But aren't you glad you went for the ride with them?

-Sean
History tells the tale - 1.5000, was never meant to be broken but when it went it rocketed.
  • #2,235
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:54pm Mar 28, 2008 3:54pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting pavlov0032
thats exactly how it happens sometimes - you just need to trail stop at the right moment in time or have EA do it for you.
It could happen in a blink of an eye..


now what are your thoughts at the moment? It seemed like today was "range" trading 100 pips up and down.. and it went up at the closing. in equities it is an indicator of opening higher next day..

Here's a 4h, and this is why i stay away from the lower TF, when you look at the movements on the 30m compaired to the failed break and current second attempt on the 4h. will it continue up or drop through the bottom? 50% fib at 1.5600 for the last wave on chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,236
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:57pm Mar 28, 2008 3:57pm
Most of the people who love this thread do so because it is simple and makes sense. For the time being, I would suggest that most of us (even some of us turtles) forget about the counter-trend strategy. It does exist but, it is counter to everything that makes most of us $$$. It is still in it's infancy.
I view it more as gambling than trading. Don't do it unless you are a pro and have a few $$$ to toss away on a 7-2 that happen to be of the same suit.

Jacko describes the trend as an ocean liner. It takes a long time to turn it around. He would be pissed (I think) if most of us took a counter-trend trade. I don't think you want to predict a change of course just because we turn from North-Northeast to Northeast. I get tossed over the rail every time I go against the trend. Plan your trades. Trade your plan.(Using Jacko's AH) and you will be fine.

If Jacko wanted every new reader of his thread to trade the counter-trend strategy he would have posted the technical aspects with the caveat " I could be wrong" . He didn't and I don't think he ever will. But, I could be wrong!
  • #2,237
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:09pm Mar 28, 2008 4:09pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Student
Jacko/Anyone

How do i find the blog ? i'd like to read about the counter trend Strategy

trade the trend - the trend is your friend, espcially if you are new to forex

get the basics down first, a common problem for new traders (not aimed at you student, just a general view) is that they see forex as a get rich quick scheme and want to be on every trade and in the end this kills most.

Now the way round this is to look at forex education in the same way you would if you was attending university - it takes time, but it can be fast tracked or gently strolled through, BUT it must be finished in the correct stages in order to understand the final test.

Jacko has provided the teaching (method) and the subject (EU), now you need to study both - research, read the papers, threads and anything else you can the talks about the EURO and the USD on the same page,
next we apply the method to the chart and review our study material to see which point best fits the bigger picture.

All this takes time and ultimatly is the reason the CT trade method is not on FF, it will only confuse the new traders.

trading with the trend in the end will win through and bring in the pips, as you get confident in the method and start to understand the EU, you can increase the lot size to take home the dollars.

MPP
  • #2,238
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:12pm Mar 28, 2008 4:12pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Archer
Plan your trades. Trade your plan

I could be wrong!

the trend is your friend
Hi archer
I think were both starting to understand Jacko's teachings now, all sound very familiar
  • #2,239
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:00pm Mar 28, 2008 5:00pm
Some really nice post today & I agree the trend is your friend. I'm staying on the sideline for now waiting for a solid support level to be defined before entering again. The 5750 & 5800 levels are what I'm keeping an eye on. As I have stated in a previous post, next week I'll be converted over to Jacko's method fully. I suspect this trend has more steam left in it before it changes, but I could be wrong. Thanks for all the positive post today.

AceTrader
  • #2,240
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:06pm Mar 28, 2008 5:06pm
MPP,
You are wise well beyond your years. I posted a comment to your profile earlier in the day that traders would be well served to read and pay attention to your analysis of trading. Perhaps I will see you in the Fall or Winter of this year when I visit my daughter in France. We can compare notes in person. By then you will be a shark not a turtle!
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