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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #71,201
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:49am Mar 28, 2008 6:49am
Quoting ephisi
done 4 d day, dead market

i see action on GU im long 4rm 200.07, 50pips SL

will close if i see reversal b4 SL
  • #71,202
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:56am Mar 28, 2008 6:56am
i'm still short, still think the only way is down
PIPPED TO THE LINE
  • #71,203
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:00am Mar 28, 2008 7:00am
Quoting trickytrader
i'm still short, still think the only way is down
alrite bro, wrong timing 4 me , should have stayed out od dis dead market

d entry trigger 4 my system is usually, 15min 5ema, 1.9989,4 better risk to reward ratio. i am fund of jumping d gun, need to work on dat. i
  • #71,204
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:17am Mar 28, 2008 7:17am
Quoting FxChi
Seems like everyone is short below 200 and long after 200. Just goes to show what round numbers can do in this market. But look at over 200. The majority of longs there are astounding.

Also just read this from UBS FX Strategy and thought I'd share:

"There was a plethora of comments from Japanese officials this morning, the upshot of which make it seem increasingly unlikely that Japan would consider intervention. BoJ's Suda said that "it's natural that the central bank has an interest rate hike at the back of its mind" although acknowledged that "it's difficult to tighten money when the economy is weakening". BoJ's Nishimura however said that the bank will continue to "adjust rates" if the economic recovery continues with price stability. Nishimura is clearly referring to the need to tightening rates, without actually saying as such - perhaps reflecting a desire to avoid making comments that could attract political criticism. The OIS market however continues to judge the risks as skewed to lower rates, pricing in 15bp of rate cuts over the upcoming 12 months. However, for now the BoJ has not adopted an easing bias, and hence the yen remains supported by monetary policy. More significantly, Finance Minister Nukaga acknowledged that from a long-term perspective a strong yen may have its benefits. This suggests that MoF remains only preoccupied with the speed of movements in the FX markets, and will not be drawing a "line in the sand" for any specific level of USDJPY. Nukaga also commented on FX reserves, saying that losses on Japan's reserves are around Y18.6 tn if USDJPY is at 100 yen. We cannot recall a finance minister commenting explicitly on the returns of reserves before. If Japan was to diversify out of the US dollar they would lose even more money by pushing the US dollar lower, so his message seems consistent with not disrupting reserve allocations for now."

Ok, so my economics accumen is not where it needs to be, but I'm working on it. Anyways, if they're losing 18.6 trillion yen at 100 I'm sure they're going to want get out of this some how and switch to another currency such as Euro. So how would they do that? I figure they'd want to at least break even so we should rally past 100 then they'd be selling off the dollar (in stages) and buy something else like Euro's (I'm just throwing out Euro's)?

Also, I guess the other implication is it's too late for them to do anything b/c they're in the hole, and if this is the case, then what will prevent the Yen from going lower? We are in a downtrend already and supposedly the markets have priced in the expected 15 point cut over the next 12 months. If that's the case the dollar should have rallied already.

Or does BoJ have enough capital to buy dollars up to past the 100 level where they're breaking even and everyone is thinking the uptrend has begun and then they sell off dollars in a bull trap? Hmmmm....Is my thinking on track here or am I way off base?
Pretty good analysis, imo. Whilst the usdjpy is around the 100 mark, the exporters are selling from 101-100, and the importers are buying 99.00-100, so we are pretty much stuck there. There is no chance of boj intervention, and if they intervened on their own, they would have a limited effect both in time and in movement. Most of the hedgers worked on 104-105, so they arent hurting too badly at the moment. The US has no intention of intervening, but perhaps usdyen at 85 would start alarm bells ringing.

Thats the great thing about forex.... the intrigue!!!

shinny
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #71,205
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:18am Mar 28, 2008 7:18am
oh, i 4got news at 8.30. i shouldnt have placed d trade, well, ill move SL b4 d news and turn it into a news prenews casino trade
  • #71,206
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:29am Mar 28, 2008 7:29am
Quoting ephisi
oh, i 4got news at 8.30. i shouldnt have placed d trade, well, ill move SL b4 d news and turn it into a news prenews casino trade
how much time till the news go out?
  • #71,207
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:36am Mar 28, 2008 7:36am
6 minutes ago!
PIPPED TO THE LINE
  • #71,208
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:40am Mar 28, 2008 7:40am
Quoting trickytrader
6 minutes ago!
news came out as expectoed.

LOL, trickytrade, GU has decided not to go your way nor my way,
  • #71,209
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:48am Mar 28, 2008 7:48am
frustrating isnt it?
PIPPED TO THE LINE
  • #71,210
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:50am Mar 28, 2008 7:50am
Quoting trickytrader
frustrating isnt it?
yeah, ill close soon and leave 4 d weekend

closed -22. see ya on monday
  • #71,211
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:52am Mar 28, 2008 7:52am
Quoting ephisi
yeah, ill close soon and leave 4 d weekend
best to do
  • #71,212
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:56am Mar 28, 2008 7:56am
Quoting warta
best to do
  • #71,213
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:23am Mar 28, 2008 8:23am
Future Dow is nicely bounced from the trendline support.
Attached Image
  • #71,214
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:57am Mar 28, 2008 8:57am
Quoting Scrat
i don't believe in HS anymore. just plain trendlines and support/resistance levels on multiple timeframes.
the whole point of this movement is to divert us from the real trend. the next drop will come at the point when nobody will expect it anymore. so, since i didn't buy yesterday's fake breakout, i expect another upward movement.
look now, g-j is usually falling during asia... this time went up 100 + pips.
i'd like to believe we'd see some nice movements tomorrow.
I'm with you there, keeping it simple and efficient.

Quite unexpected, but this Friday turned out to be rather quiet. Price is moving sideway.

I have these 2 easy S/R lines for GJ and I'm looking for a breakout (either way tbh);
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj30m tripple bottom.jpg Size: 84 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #71,215
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:00am Mar 28, 2008 9:00am
Quoting aediaz1
I'm with you there, keeping it simple and efficient.

Quite unexpected, but this Friday turned out to be rather quiet. Price is moving sideway.

I have these 2 easy S/R lines for GJ and I'm looking for a breakout (either way tbh);

yes same here ... and i m also long with 3 lots ... hoping for a up breakout !!
and 1 short that i m holding from long time !

Goodbadmas
  • #71,216
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:07am Mar 28, 2008 9:07am
Quoting goodbadmas
yes same here ... and i m also long with 3 lots ... hoping for a up breakout !!
and 1 short that i m holding from long time !

Goodbadmas
Careful with your 3 lots. Hope is 1 dangerous "ability" in any market.

Notice that GJ struggle with pivot (199.73) right now. As stated, this can turn out either way.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #71,217
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:22am Mar 28, 2008 9:22am
I made a quick analysis of GJ on H4 time frame:

base on my chart and trend lines, we may see 201 area again (H4 R2 and the thick red resistance line) but if it is rejected and the lower trend line (thick green line) is broken, another major fall may begin from there down to :

Target 1 : 192.60 (previous low)
Target 2 : 186.70 (fib %138.2 ext)
Target 3 : 183.10 - 40 (Weekly S3 and fib %161.8 ext)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 ii.gif Size: 14 KB
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #71,218
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:24am Mar 28, 2008 9:24am
closed out all my positions, will probably shoot downwards now!
PIPPED TO THE LINE
  • #71,219
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:36am Mar 28, 2008 9:36am
Yesterdays range: 401 pips

Todays so-far range: 144 pips

If this break through currently support, I expect a large drop. So watch your positions.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #71,220
  • Edited 12:22pm Mar 28, 2008 9:41am | Edited 12:22pm
First SUPPORT area;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h tripple bottom.gif Size: 17 KB
Measure twice, cut once
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