Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

I hear ya, I hear ya.. It's just that sometimes I get the feeling the bad guys won.

They do sometimes, no matter what you see in the movies. That's why it's up to people like you and me to VOTE and do our best to keep them in-line.

That and stop buying what they are selling. All hail to the power of the American consumer! Go for their wallets and see how fast they change their tunes!

Ditto bro!!

I'm long @ 199.55 and so in the muck. Not what I expected. Can you say rookie...

I'd like some comments on the RSI in the below 4 hr chart. I'm trying to cut down on indicators and only focus on RSI so still learning how to read it properly. In below chart, I think we have hidden bearish divergence which is then followed up with regular bear divergence.

The pattern we're in looks to be a wedge pattern, but this is typically a continuation pattern of the previous trend, right?

Also read this article: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Br...653915808.html

Which essentially says, " Nationwide, the country’s second largest mortgage lender is planning to turn away business" and "If a mortgage lender announces major losses or even worse, is forced to fold shop, the British pound could easily break 2.0 and slip down to 1.9850."

I'm wondering if the economic data this morning may be the catalyst to push us South with the divergences and the trend continuation wedge pattern. Can someone comment on the RSI observation?

I don't think looking at highs that far away is valid. You have to compare recent highs/lows. But looking at your 2 recent arrows it looks like bearish divergence indeed.
I have alot supporting a down move, I think bearish diamond price pattern is forming.

i don't believe in HS anymore. just plain trendlines and support/resistance levels on multiple timeframes.
the whole point of this movement is to divert us from the real trend. the next drop will come at the point when nobody will expect it anymore. so, since i didn't buy yesterday's fake breakout, i expect another upward movement.
look now, g-j is usually falling during asia... this time went up 100 + pips.
i'd like to believe we'd see some nice movements tomorrow.

It didnt quite get to where I wanted it to, but close enough lol

We had a bullish pin on support now on the 4 hour charts. I'd look to see upside from that.

As of a minute ago... Was down almost a hundred at one point

Need a break-out soon..

Seems like everyone is short below 200 and long after 200. Just goes to show what round numbers can do in this market. But look at over 200. The majority of longs there are astounding.

Also just read this from UBS FX Strategy and thought I'd share:

"There was a plethora of comments from Japanese officials this morning, the upshot of which make it seem increasingly unlikely that Japan would consider intervention. BoJ's Suda said that "it's natural that the central bank has an interest rate hike at the back of its mind" although acknowledged that "it's difficult to tighten money when the economy is weakening". BoJ's Nishimura however said that the bank will continue to "adjust rates" if the economic recovery continues with price stability. Nishimura is clearly referring to the need to tightening rates, without actually saying as such - perhaps reflecting a desire to avoid making comments that could attract political criticism. The OIS market however continues to judge the risks as skewed to lower rates, pricing in 15bp of rate cuts over the upcoming 12 months. However, for now the BoJ has not adopted an easing bias, and hence the yen remains supported by monetary policy. More significantly, Finance Minister Nukaga acknowledged that from a long-term perspective a strong yen may have its benefits. This suggests that MoF remains only preoccupied with the speed of movements in the FX markets, and will not be drawing a "line in the sand" for any specific level of USDJPY. Nukaga also commented on FX reserves, saying that losses on Japan's reserves are around Y18.6 tn if USDJPY is at 100 yen. We cannot recall a finance minister commenting explicitly on the returns of reserves before. If Japan was to diversify out of the US dollar they would lose even more money by pushing the US dollar lower, so his message seems consistent with not disrupting reserve allocations for now."

Ok, so my economics accumen is not where it needs to be, but I'm working on it. Anyways, if they're losing 18.6 trillion yen at 100 I'm sure they're going to want get out of this some how and switch to another currency such as Euro. So how would they do that? I figure they'd want to at least break even so we should rally past 100 then they'd be selling off the dollar (in stages) and buy something else like Euro's (I'm just throwing out Euro's)?

Also, I guess the other implication is it's too late for them to do anything b/c they're in the hole, and if this is the case, then what will prevent the Yen from going lower? We are in a downtrend already and supposedly the markets have priced in the expected 15 point cut over the next 12 months. If that's the case the dollar should have rallied already.

Or does BoJ have enough capital to buy dollars up to past the 100 level where they're breaking even and everyone is thinking the uptrend has begun and then they sell off dollars in a bull trap? Hmmmm....Is my thinking on track here or am I way off base?

GBP/JPY can retest 201.70 and still fall to new Low's IMO

mike W, U here?

Hi Ephisi,

What is your view today. Yesterday your analysis was very good.

Thanks, sharon, i am think of not trading today. i have mixed signals on my chart, we need some strong news to give us directon. d daily gann on UJ and GJ and 4hr trendlines are holding dis strong bull nicely. my 4hr charts are trying to confirm longs but those daily factors are very strong. so i close above d daily gann and trendline to go long. it is much easier to d downside. But i have no shorts signals.

I AM STAYING ON D SIDE LINES TILL I SEE A NEED TO ANALYSE MY CHARTS. LOTS OF TRAERS ARE GOING TO LOOSE MONEY TODAY AND DONT FORGET ITS FREAKY FRIDAY

hopefully 2days news will give us a clear direction.

GU is looking sweet, head and shoulders, and nice channel on d 15min chart.

HEY GJ IS MY TYPE PLS ANY GOOD THING FOR IT

How About That For A Speed Short?




......don't Trade Cos I Did.....wit Aussy Trends:d

made 20pips from my prenews trade based on dis,

At 3:00 a.m we will have UK Nationwide House Prices y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.0%. This indicator has been on a steady slide ever since last summer from over 11% last summer to expected 2% this month. The monthly number is expected to come out at -0.3%. I will trade the monthly number with 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 0% or positive, it would be a good buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would expect a move of about 30 pips and 45-50 pips, respectively. If it comes out at -0.6% or more negative, then I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect about the same targets here.

dis figure has been sliding constantly.



i am shor GJ again 4rm 1.9989. SL 50pips

imout ill be back 4 london open.