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  • #21
  • Mar 24, 2008 8:17am Mar 24, 2008 8:17am
One more question do you only take the bounce of the 89 ema most of the time...or any ema bounce...
  • #22
  • Mar 24, 2008 9:20am Mar 24, 2008 9:20am
Euro trade was up 60 pips. Moved stop to Break Even + 10.
There was housing data being released today and the market went up before the announcement and tumbled on the announcement.

Strategy was sound.
What did I do well? - entered in direction of trend. Protected my equity by quickly moving my stop to B.E. I entered after a deep retracement (my draw down was very small- only about 5 pips).

What could I do better? This was a sound trade; so I am happy with how I behaved. Perhaps I could have taken some profit knowing that a news event (housing numbers) were coming out today. But overall - this was a solid trade.
  • #23
  • Mar 24, 2008 9:24am Mar 24, 2008 9:24am
I like a bounce off the emas. But I dont have a 'rule' for entry. I use the ema to define a trend. If the 21 55 and 89 are all in agreement on direction, then I have a trend.

Then I wait for a pull back. (I like the stoch to help define how far it should pull back). I dont need the EMAs to be touched to trigger an entry.

Thanks for stopping by my journal.
Best wishes
StewartR

Quoting jets211990
One more question do you only take the bounce of the 89 ema most of the time...or any ema bounce...
  • #24
  • Mar 25, 2008 12:10am Mar 25, 2008 12:10am
4 hour trend in place
pull back to MAs.
stoch confirms that pull back may have finished.
4 hour bearish outside bar helps too
short
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  • #25
  • Mar 25, 2008 3:44pm Mar 25, 2008 3:44pm
went to bed - woke up to +17 pips
I closed the trade because it had been up 72 pips and the stoch now looked like oversold.

what did I do well - followed the trend and entered on a big pull-back. I protected my capital and did not let a winner turn into a loss.

what could I have done better - I woke up and made a decision to close the trade right away - perhaps I should have waited until I had fully woken up.
  • #26
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:13pm Mar 25, 2008 5:13pm
Sick stuff...what your prefence of time frame....i see you hav 4 hour charts and 1 hour charts...
  • #27
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:14pm Mar 25, 2008 5:14pm
This thread is top of the line stuff...really enjoying it...
  • #28
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:52pm Mar 25, 2008 5:52pm
doing well stewart, resist the temptation to complicate to avoid the losses.

question for you to think about - if moving averages werent invented - would it make a difference .....?
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #29
  • Mar 25, 2008 11:21pm Mar 25, 2008 11:21pm
Hi SoulTrader,
"if moving averages weren't invented, would it make a difference".

I love your thought provoking questions.
Let me ask (and reply) to a slightly different question.

What do the moving averages do for me?

Nothing more than help me define a trend. Everyone says its easy to see a trend. "If the price on the left of screen is lower than the price on the right, then the trend is up". But I have often struggled with that idea because the the trend changes depending on the length of time (number of bars) you have on your screen.

So - the moving averages are my crutch to mathematically define the direction of the trend. (Which means I am not confident in my ability to look a chart and determine the trend.....fear poking its head through?). I am making no judgement about how right or wrong that is. For example, I have used the 21, 55 and 89 ema - but I have no evidence to say they are any better than 5 8 13 emas or the 200 ema, or if a simple trend line would do.

I think people poo-poo the moving averages as being "historical" and therefore irrelevant. But the same people will then draw a trend line.....from historical numbers......to define the trend. :-)

In a nutshell - the moving averages are used because I am not confident that I can look at a screen and tell the future direction as accurately as I can interpret 3 lines being in the same direction and above or beneath each other.

That's my rambling for the moment - SoulTrader, thanks for stopping by.
  • #30
  • Mar 25, 2008 11:31pm Mar 25, 2008 11:31pm
Hi Jets,
Thanks again for stopping by.

I look at the daily charts (for about 5 seconds).
Then I look at the 4 hourly chart.
I want to see a clear trend (21, 55, 89 ema) each moving in the same general direction.
Then I look to the 4 hour stoch to see 'how far has it pulled back'. (I have no evidence to say that the stoch is any better at judging the depth of a pull back than any other oscillator, price-action-bar or prayer-technique. I also have not paid any attention to the settings on the stoch. I think all that stuff is irrelevant. I think a trading method should be robust (a blunt or general-purpose instrument that works in many circumstances) rather than a finely tuned instrument that relies on the settings of your indicator being perfect.

Ideally, I would then look for a price action bar (on the 4 hour chart). Something like a pin-bar or an outside bar is good.

That's all I need to enter.

BUT - I also have time to look at the 1 hour charts, and sometimes the stoch and price action on the 1 hour chart screams "enter now!".

So I weight them like this.
Daily - always look at it (but only for a few seconds)
4 hourly - this is my everything.
1 hourly - only look at it when convenient.

I would never trade from a 1 hour bar only.

Another note - I like my sleep, so I dont get up and look at the bars in the middle of the night. (I dont think its necessary).


Quoting jets211990
Sick stuff...what your prefence of time frame....i see you hav 4 hour charts and 1 hour charts...
  • #31
  • Mar 26, 2008 4:08am Mar 26, 2008 4:08am
Quoting stewartr
Hi SoulTrader,
"if moving averages weren't invented, would it make a difference".

I love your thought provoking questions.
Let me ask (and reply) to a slightly different question.

What do the moving averages do for me?

Nothing more than help me define a trend. Everyone says its easy to see a trend. "If the price on the left of screen is lower than the price on the right, then the trend is up". But I have often struggled with that idea because the the trend changes depending on the length of time (number of bars) you have on your screen.

So - the moving averages are my crutch to mathematically define the direction of the trend. (Which means I am not confident in my ability to look a chart and determine the trend.....fear poking its head through?). I am making no judgement about how right or wrong that is. For example, I have used the 21, 55 and 89 ema - but I have no evidence to say they are any better than 5 8 13 emas or the 200 ema, or if a simple trend line would do.

I think people poo-poo the moving averages as being "historical" and therefore irrelevant. But the same people will then draw a trend line.....from historical numbers......to define the trend. :-)

In a nutshell - the moving averages are used because I am not confident that I can look at a screen and tell the future direction as accurately as I can interpret 3 lines being in the same direction and above or beneath each other.

That's my rambling for the moment - SoulTrader, thanks for stopping by.
tell ya what Stewart - here's an excercise for you for when you are bored....

Find me a moving average between 1 and 300 that price DOESN'T bounce off

The answer will tell a story for you
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #32
  • Mar 26, 2008 4:35am Mar 26, 2008 4:35am
Yeh I noticed a long time ago that any setting from any indicator will always work 'some' of the time, and nothing works 'all' of the time. So I gave up looking. :-)


Quoting soultrader
tell ya what Stewart - here's an excercise for you for when you are bored....

Find me a moving average between 1 and 300 that price DOESN'T bounce off

The answer will tell a story for you
  • #33
  • Mar 26, 2008 4:41am Mar 26, 2008 4:41am
I have not traded this pair before.
Trend is down (emas)
Pull back is sufficient (stoch way up high).
Took the entry - now its out of my control.
(Interesting that I have little confidence in this trade becuase I know nothing of the fundamentals. I have no 'reason' for this to go down further. But in all reality I have little knowledge of anything fundamental about any of the pairs).
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  • #34
  • Mar 26, 2008 11:09pm Mar 26, 2008 11:09pm
closed the trade at +10 pips
market had moved +67 pips and I moved stop to +10.
Them's the breaks. My backtesting shows that its better to let the profits run than it is to target a 50pip or 100 pip profit. The occasional 200+pip move always catches the profits right up.
  • #35
  • Mar 26, 2008 11:34pm Mar 26, 2008 11:34pm
Quoting stewartr
I have not traded this pair before.
Trend is down (emas)
Pull back is sufficient (stoch way up high).
Took the entry - now its out of my control.
(Interesting that I have little confidence in this trade becuase I know nothing of the fundamentals. I have no 'reason' for this to go down further. But in all reality I have little knowledge of anything fundamental about any of the pairs).

Its a good trade even if you make a pip....good stuff men...

Currently practicing it on demo...
  • #36
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:56am Mar 27, 2008 5:56am
Hi Jets,
Interesting that I closed the euro trade at +10 and then it launched itself 500 pips. Ouch!
But the AUDJPY trade was closed at +10 and would have ended up as a loss.

This system is really designed to give:
a few small losses
a few break evens
lots of small wins
and
a few big wins

Meanwhile.....the bank account keeps going up.
  • #37
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:41am Mar 28, 2008 4:41am
No clear signals for a while now. I am a trend trader and none of the pairs I am following has pulled back enough. I wait.
So my official position just now is "no position".
  • #38
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:53am Mar 28, 2008 6:53am
21 55 and 89 ema on 4 hour are down
same on daily
so trend is down
bearish candle after a pull back
So I'm in (short at 99.84)
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  • #39
  • Edited 10:44am Mar 28, 2008 10:09am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting stewartr
21 55 and 89 ema on 4 hour are down
same on daily
so trend is down
bearish candle after a pull back
So I'm in (short at 99.84)

Nice i have question though...it does not bother your entry knowing that ema 21 crossed 55 to go bullish....?

Another qestion would be what if in the daily you get a cross of the 55 with 21....would that make you look at another currency right
DO you ever take trades of the daily chart even if the ema are now against you in the four hour chart?

And last question...would you show me how you would view the gbp/usd starting from the one hour chart and bringing it down all the way to the daily...?
And whats your stop from start...

Thanks ...sorry for asking so many questions lol
  • #40
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:06pm Mar 28, 2008 10:06pm
Jets -

Quoting jets211990
Nice i have question though...it does not bother your entry knowing that ema 21 crossed 55 to go bullish....?
since I enter on pull backs, the 21 will often be pulled back with the price and sometimes cross the 55. I dont mind though - especially if the daily trend is confirming the 4 hour trend.

Another qestion would be what if in the daily you get a cross of the 55 with 21....would that make you look at another currency right
very likely - yes.
However I will sometimes enter on a 4 hour chart (against the daily trend) if it looks like the daily is at an area of support/resistance or a clear pin bar/outside bar, and the 4 hour conditions are met (ie 21<55<89 and stoch at extreme)

If I trade against the daily trend, I will try to time the entry by looking at the 1 hour chart.
 DO you ever take trades of the daily chart even if the ema are now against you in the four hour chart?
Not very often. If I saw a great pull back on the daily with an excellent pin bar or outside bar and the stoch was at an extreme, then I would happily enter with a stop at the previous swing.

THE ENTIRE REASON THIS METHODOLOGY WORKS IS BECAUSE TRENDS HAVE A TENDENCY TO CONTINUE, AND ENTERING AT AN EXTREME OF A STOCH TENDS TO GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO MOVE TO BREAK EVEN, EVEN IF THE BIGGER TREND HAS REVERSED. So the losses are small and the potential for big wins is always there.
And last question...would you show me how you would view the gbp/usd starting from the one hour chart and bringing it down all the way to the daily...?
yes - in the coming posts
And whats your stop from start...
I am trying to get into a trend - so I put the stop where I think the trend would have reversed. (So I put it at the previous swing h/l which is almost always within 5 few bars of the entry trigger - or I put it at 2x ATR(100) which is twice the distance that currency would move on average over 100 candles)
Thanks ...sorry for asking so many questions lol
Let me know if I havent made myself clear. I'll give you my thoughts on the gbp next
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