My Daily Fozzy Trades

cool..............I'm not exactly sure what you are asking. Currently, I'm using the willf filter to make a decision as soon as I have a cross of the RSI and MA. As you know, I look at every cross without regard for the Bollinger Bands. Now I look at the RSI in relation to the 50 level for additional information because I think this is a very good secondary indicator. But remember, before we starting considering this, we still traded profitably. Now we have an indicator that MAY keep us out of bad trades. As for the opening of the candle; we already know that many good trades will retrace before heading in "our" direction, so late in the day is not necessarily a problem.

I'll repeat something summitfx posted...................forget willf Fozzy and beach Fozzy.................trade "cool Fozzy". Decide on the rules of "your" version of the Fozzy and stick to them faithfully, you'll do splendidly! (Oh by the way........forget summitfx Fozzy too.............lol!!!)

I have posted my updated spreadsheet. It now contains 3 weeks of forwardtesting, comparing 4 exit strategies. Entry technique `Willf Fozzy´plus occasional Poek discretionary (relative position of price vs vegas lines, my Solarwinds/T3CCi check)

Results:
For this week I have booked 420pips for 50% ATR to 580pips for 70%ATR stop.

From %wins point of view the 70%ATR stop is currently showing a 83% for the three weeks (30 trades) and 1 open with 80pips locked profit. Original High/Low StopLoss is at 76% as is using the next Vegas(fib)level as stoploss.

Finally, when risking 1% for each trade, the Vegas(fib) level is
looking at 27% increase of equity, followed by 24% for 50%ATR stop, 19% for 70% ATR stop and 9% using original High/Low.

Intermediate conclusion
It is clear that moneymgt makes the difference. I have noticed that I prefer the steadily growth and the less volatile equity curves better and will now paper trade the 70% ATR stop scenario. I will continue to track the 4 exits for at least another week.

No trades foreseen for today. I have 1 open-AUDPY with 80pips locked. Will not close tonight and wait for monday.

Poek

What are you using for an ATR setting? 10?

Beach-
Great admiration for you're trading of the Fozzy system and making it work. I get cranky late at night-my posts are often misunderstood. I was trying to convey a message to coolshades to think on his feet.

Interesting stuff- I could use you some help on the ATR. I've plotted most indicators presented around here but the ATR leaves me dazed and confused. Judging on your Spreadsheet, I need to get knowledgeable about it. Thanks for any assistance.

[quote=poekmeister;192339]I have posted my updated spreadsheet. It now contains 3 weeks of forwardtesting, comparing 4 exit strategies. Entry technique `Willf Fozzy´plus occasional Poek discretionary (relative position of price vs vegas lines, my Solarwinds/T3CCi check)

summit - i am fine with your posts. no misunderstanding here.

me too............

Cool- I'm glad I'm cool with everybody. Coolshades- you are smart to ask questions. If I can ever assist feel free to ask. Beach has the water and I live within 8 minutes of world-class skiing and winter sports. My goal for this year is to make the transistion to trade the daily fozzy charts and break away from my addiction to the charts and adrenaline rush of making trades. I'm probably the biggest Cockroach on FF- it's a great way to pass time waiting for Fozzy crosses or maybe not.

Enjoy your weekend doing whatever makes you happy~

hi summitfx,

can u check yur PM ?....i have sent to u yesterday.

thanks
cp

summit.......

In response to your query about ATR, I want to share some thoughts I have on this and why I introduced it to the original Fozzy method. My apologies in advance if this seems basic or I'm repeating myself. (advanced age does at times cause me to repeat myself...........can't imagine how bad it will be when I get to be as old as smjones......... )

ATR first got my attention about a year ago when I was developing ways to trade with Vantage Point software. I still trade daily charts with VP along with the Fozzy method; the timing is great for both, right after the NY close at 5PM EST. My initial observation was that price would retrace "away" from my trade direction after the NY close, then move "in" my direction as per the VP signals I was using. The amount of retrace was something I looked at and documented carefully. After a while, I came to the conclusion that winning trades would retrace as much as 50% or 60% of the ATR. More than this usually meant my trade was a looser. So I came up with a general "rule of thumb" formula that could initially be used with most currency pairs to establish an appropriate and effective S/L. It was ATR(20) times 0.7. Further back and forward testing allowed me to establish a more well defined S/L for each pair, but the general pattern remained: 70% ATR(20) was a useable S/L. At the same time I was looking more closely at Daily charts and formulating in my mind how daily price movement could be used as a basis for trading (I believe some of my thinking was similar to what OR is doing with his SRDC method; not sure because I have only skimmed some of his threads). Regardless, it just seemed that ATR was an important value to consider when trading the Daily chart. Therefore, when Fozzy first posted his method, it just "clicked"; ATR would be a very useful tool for what initially appeared to be a very solid trading method. And I think it has and continues to be such. The value of every currency pair moves through a price range each day. With VP, I was trying to capture the "heart" of that range everyday. Buy near the bottom and sell near the top, and vice-versa. VP has helped me to do that, but has also taught me much more about "Daily Range", and that number is reflected in the ATR, whether you want to use the ATR for the last week, month or year. While trading the Daily Fozzy method, I have spent some time backtesting and closely exaiming the "retrace" for successful trades and how this number compares to the ATR and establishing a useable S/L for a particular currency pair. Interestingly I keep coming back to, or close to, 70% ATR. Anyone who wants to seriously trade Fozzy with daily charts should spend the time with each pair they want to trade doing the backtest for a year and learning for themselves what constitutes a useable (and profitable) S/L. Chart the retrace for successful trades, compare it to the ATR and set the rules for your trading method; then stick to the rules! HTH someone, somewhere!

As a side note: you posted something about getting away from "chart watching". I used to be addicted to that as well as "scalp" trading. I've gotten away from that, although I have the occasional relapse. However, the Daily Fozzy method has really helped me to give up that lifestyle; it's been like "Forex rehab"......lol!

Did you not recieve them? I'll post them here!

BB-
Thanks for that excellent summary. I'm sure it's posted all over the Fozzy threads but thanks for taking the time to explain again. I'll spend some time with it this weekend.



[quote=BeachBum;192759]summit.......

.........can't imagine how bad it will be when I get to be as old as smjones......... )

ATR- Defined, it is the high minus the low for a given period of time. That period can be a day, a one hour bar, a one minute bar, or even a week. It's averaged over a period of time (i.e., 14 days) to smooth out that number.

Has anyone found a better way to plot it? Plotted as single line on my chart- it just doesn't do much for me. Maybe if I look hard enough I'll see something.

Poeky has presented some compelling evidence so I'll keep looking.

summit..............tell me why you are plotting on a chart? I've always just used it as a number: ie, raw data.

Duh? I don't have a good answer to that other than to say I continue to debunk the theory, along with smjones, that you get smarter and wiser with age.

Here's my results for last week :

DATE PAIR BUY/SELL PRICE TP1 TP2 PIPS
10-Jan CADJPY BUY 101.93 102.83 90
14-Jan GBPUSD BUY 1.9596 1.9625 1.9596 29
15-Jan AUDUSD BUY 0.7840
15-Jan NZDUSD BUY 0.6970 0.6913 0.6913 -114
15-Jan EURJPY BUY 155.80 156.32 157.3300 205
19-Jan EURCAD BUY 1.5225 1.5264 1.5225 39

First TP on CADJPY was closed last week so only this weeks second TP is shown.

Total = 249 + 2x55 on AUDUSD = 359

Seemed a little sluggish this week. Probably due to the holiday in the US on Monday and the anticipated JPY interest rate statement on Thursday.

i averaged 50 pips this week too.

Great post, BB. What this tells us is the MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) of our winning trades, which is about the most useful thing to know when setting stops....