Daily Cable Analysis | Page 146 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

CABLE Centurion 16 replies

Cable: Measuring Fibonacci From Where ? 29 replies

Attachments: Daily Cable Analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,901
  • Jan 19, 2007 11:36am Jan 19, 2007 11:36am
Quoting koohyar
buy gbp/usd @ 1.9738
tp:1.9783
sl: 1.9722
It's Friday- folk taking profits for the weekend. You'll probably be needing to carry that until next week.
Is your SL my TP?
  • #2,902
  • Jan 19, 2007 11:36am Jan 19, 2007 11:36am
Watch your SL. It is sitting right @ 61.8 fibo of todays upward movement frm 9695 to 9763.
Quoting koohyar
buy gbp/usd @ 1.9738
tp:1.9783
sl: 1.9722
  • #2,903
  • Jan 19, 2007 11:38am Jan 19, 2007 11:38am
Quoting forexnovice
Rest well. See ya on Monday
Interesting...

The idea behind the fibo @ 9846 came to my mind this morning (GMT) while watching the market at about 9740s.

I thought that there was going to be another fibo to be run, and if I was able to predict its high from the low 9635 (Thu's low) it would be nice. And I was noticing, by monarch studies, that important fibs marks happened to repeat in another fibo afterwards, but there wasn't any important fibo above 9740s...

Then I started drawing this fibo in such a way to engulf the movement after this mark and to let important fibos exactly where the price was finding S&Rs. It was surprising to see that the 100% was right at 9846, then it hit me: THERE WAS an important fibo above 9740 - the 9846 itself!

Then it was very impressive how the market went on playing by this fibo - specially the range between 9741 - 9765, the following repetitive rest at 9741, a support at 9716 and the retracement to 9741 after the news - and where we are now.

The 9722 was already an expected support today and the mix with 9716 fibo (daily pivot - 9717) provided a huge defense line during the news.

There were simply no gas left when we started droping to 9695. This movement was rapidly absorbed back to the 9740s...

That's the Ghost Fibo
HIGH 9846
23 - 9796
38 - 9765
50 - 9741
61 - 9716
78 - 9680
LOW - 9635

The only important mark that is not engulfed as a fibo line is the 9772/9777 area... We will figure out why sometime soon...

César
  • #2,904
  • Jan 19, 2007 11:56am Jan 19, 2007 11:56am
Only reason I could find frm daily charts was that price was above & around this level for 4 days. Maybe Monarch has the answer...
Quoting cesarnc
Interesting...

The only important mark that is not engulfed as a fibo line is the 9772/9777 area... We will figure out why sometime soon...

César
  • #2,905
  • Jan 19, 2007 12:02pm Jan 19, 2007 12:02pm
i got 11.8 fibo, and work well for yesterday and tomorrow. , ups i mean today.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,906
  • Jan 19, 2007 12:39pm Jan 19, 2007 12:39pm
Here's our rocket... If we stay 97HIGH / 98LOW until Wed, we will spend the rest of the month at the International Space Station:

Another relatively key [UK AGENDA NEXT WEEK] with the [BOE/MPC"S JAN] [MEETING MINUTES] (Wed) no doubt dominating. We look for an 8-1 vote split for higher rates with Blanchflower probably the lone dissenter and opting for a steady hand. There is a risk of a 7-2 outcome with perhaps Lomax, Barker or Bean joining Blanchflower, though recent comments from the latter suggest he may have backed another 25 bp hike. The [CBI"S] [JAN INDUSTRIAL TRENDS SURVEY] (Tue) should show a fall in the headline orders balance, while [PRELIM Q4 GDP] (Wed) is expected to reveal another 0.7% q/q rise with the y/y rate up to 2.9% from 2.7%. No breakdown will be available on the expenditure side, though the sector counterpart is likely to show further services strength. Overall, the releases should keep the door open for another rate hike and perhaps in Q1
  • #2,907
  • Jan 19, 2007 12:46pm Jan 19, 2007 12:46pm
Wow!...where did u get all that info. I mostly read just fxstreet's articles?
Quoting cesarnc
Here's our rocket... If we stay 97HIGH / 98LOW until Wed, we will spend the rest of the month at the International Space Station:

Another relatively key [UK AGENDA NEXT WEEK] with the [BOE/MPC"S JAN] [MEETING MINUTES] (Wed) no doubt dominating. We look for an 8-1 vote split for higher rates with Blanchflower probably the lone dissenter and opting for a steady hand. There is a risk of a 7-2 outcome with perhaps Lomax, Barker or Bean joining Blanchflower, though recent comments from the latter suggest he may have backed another 25 bp hike. The [CBI"S] [JAN INDUSTRIAL TRENDS SURVEY] (Tue) should show a fall in the headline orders balance, while [PRELIM Q4 GDP] (Wed) is expected to reveal another 0.7% q/q rise with the y/y rate up to 2.9% from 2.7%. No breakdown will be available on the expenditure side, though the sector counterpart is likely to show further services strength. Overall, the releases should keep the door open for another rate hike and perhaps in Q1
  • #2,908
  • Jan 19, 2007 12:55pm Jan 19, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting forexnovice
Wow!...where did u get all that info. I mostly read just fxstreet's articles?
I receive at my GFT system here... It's good for reference, only.

Sometimes market makes erratic moves and 30 min later I receive the news, talking about selloffs here and there and I go "ohhhhh, I got it". Too bad they don't anticipate that stuff.
  • #2,909
  • Jan 19, 2007 1:01pm Jan 19, 2007 1:01pm
I also stopped trading on such reports. Prior to rate hike, every1 anticipated it 2 remain same. Blew up 50% of my real account ....Now recovering it pip by pip...
Quoting cesarnc
I receive at my GFT system here... It's good for reference, only.

Sometimes market makes erratic moves and 30 min later I receive the news, talking about selloffs here and there and I go "ohhhhh, I got it". Too bad they don't anticipate that stuff.
  • #2,910
  • Jan 19, 2007 1:29pm Jan 19, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting forexnovice
I also stopped trading on such reports. Prior to rate hike, every1 anticipated it 2 remain same. Blew up 50% of my real account ....Now recovering it pip by pip...
I see... I also suffered some heavy losses here at the beginning. But it's part of the learning. I´m now managing to breakeven. Profits still to come...

I just cannot go on demo. I get way too bold with demo, what sometimes generates huge profits that don't turn out to be true with real money, when "fear of loss" takes place...

All I´m doing now is trading 1 or 2 lots tops as to "feel" the adrenaline of drawdowns, recoveries, so forth.

And also to improve myself in the techniques I've learned here because I find AWESOME how monarch use to know where we are / we are we going every single time! I've seen him making some unbelievable calls here. Like 30 pips here and there, but at the pip, at the time he projected.

Same for Leugimp.

There is where the profit lives....
  • #2,911
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:02pm Jan 19, 2007 2:02pm
Its unfortunate Monarch has stopped frequenting the thread. I got 2 learn a lot frm him. Demo trading...tried it but blew up the accounts. Real trading teaches a lot more than demo....Leugimp's TA & FA r really good..right up2 the mark

Cheers....Good Night Everyone...See all ya Bulls & Bears on Monday morning
  • #2,912
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:48pm Jan 19, 2007 3:48pm
Am I mistaken or did today's candle form a doji that indicates a possible reversal? Take a look at these dates in the last four months and see if they weren't all dojis that signaled and were followed by reversals:

9/4/06
9//11/06
10/11/06
11/16/06

Guess we'll find out next week!

Griff
  • #2,913
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:52pm Jan 19, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting gjgriff1960
Am I mistaken or did today's candle form a doji that indicates a possible reversal? Take a look at these dates in the last four months and see if they weren't all dojis that signaled and were followed by reversals:

9/4/06
9//11/06
10/11/06
11/16/06

Guess we'll find out next week!

Griff
It was also an "inside day" candle. A really tight range for such a volatile pair. I believe this signifies a lot of indecision in the market. As you said, we'll find out next week!
  • #2,914
  • Edited 10:09pm Jan 19, 2007 6:07pm | Edited 10:09pm
I don't post here much but have been lurking a lot lately.
Here is a screen shot of the Cable Monthly as of this evening. I don't know if its my imagination but if you look at how the price action has reacted in the past to the trendlines on this chart it would seem we could be in for another big leg up.

Each time a monthly bar closed above/below the median trendline it continued in the same direction for a lot of pips.
Now compare these last three months bars with the previous times the trendline was breached.......... interesting!

Opinions please.
Attached Image
  • #2,915
  • Jan 19, 2007 8:36pm Jan 19, 2007 8:36pm
the daily chart still shows no sign of going down... frommy calculations we are still in a wave 5. There is more room to go up to take out the high of 9846. price is still above all fibos on my charts.
trading on demo is not trading
  • #2,916
  • Jan 20, 2007 1:23am Jan 20, 2007 1:23am
Hey, lowell, nice chart... Good to see other's point-of-view in such I way I've never imagined.

We started this week in the waiting for a new down move to the 92XX. I woudn't be surprised if we had seen only 94high or 95ers. But closing the week at 9730s? In a week with news that we not only dollar-positive, some were unbelivably dollar-positive with virtually no response from the market.

This got to mean something.

This Friday a huge load of money was put in to defend the 9722-9616 support area and it worked.

There is this anxiety around here about when is it finally going to drop, although every day during this week showed we are not going to drop. At least not to the 92area. I´m to go along studying here whether or not the price would need another retracement down before going up.

With next Wed's BOE Metting to vote another rate hike - forecast is 8:1 (maybe 7:2) PRO-HIKE, we will still see some heavy fight on Mon and Tue, possibly with a touch in the 98s. If the market holds price around 97high / 98 low untill Wed, we will kiss 1.9 goodbye in the following 2 weeks.

With this pressure to the upside, I´m not trading heavily on the down move unless we break 9680s down. But an opening candle above 9777 .....
  • #2,917
  • Jan 20, 2007 2:34am Jan 20, 2007 2:34am
Check out this chart,

http://img41.imagevenue.com/img.php?..._122_306lo.JPG
  • #2,918
  • Jan 20, 2007 4:21am Jan 20, 2007 4:21am
Quoting henrycarol
Check out this chart,

http://img41.imagevenue.com/img.php?..._122_306lo.JPG
Hey henrycarol,

I´m not that confident on 1hr indicators, because they are still highly influenced by both Jan 18 (HUGE) and Jan 19 down moves during the news, when the market seemed to skip those news. Therefore a big valley (on Jan 18) on RSI and Stoch may have never existed for practical purposes...

It's quite easy to see the price action taking those events out. But I don't know if there's a way to see how the indicators would look without that particular price action.
  • #2,919
  • Jan 20, 2007 4:41am Jan 20, 2007 4:41am
the brokers and banks know what we are think...
Then they will be make us loss, that to win....
so by any way by any analysis the GBP/USD must go down, but they are not do that , because they are know we are know that..
there is no any reasone to go up , by fib , or by news.....
  • #2,920
  • Jan 20, 2007 6:38am Jan 20, 2007 6:38am
Quoting khaled22
the brokers and banks know what we are think...
Then they will be make us loss, that to win....
so by any way by any analysis the GBP/USD must go down, but they are not do that , because they are know we are know that..
there is no any reasone to go up , by fib , or by news.....
I'm not sure, but I don't think we're all that important to the banks. I think they have another agenda besides taking pips from us "wee folk".

I think the main goal is to divest of the dollar and dollar-backed assets. It can't be done all at once, so as to collapse everything, but it has to be done and I believe it will be. Not that sterling or any other fiat currency is any better, but I think the dollar has been "marked for a hit".

The good news for us, is that we can come out on top, whatever they do. Just wait for the waves and surf 'em.
Is your SL my TP?
1 trader viewing now