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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #2,161
  • Mar 27, 2008 4:56am Mar 27, 2008 4:56am
Quoting acetrader
Over the last 14 hrs I have kept a close eye on price, In the meantime I am keeping a close watch on the PRICE ACTION in the near term.


____________________
AceTrader
When you say you keep close watch on PRICE ACTION, can you enlighten me what you will looking at, i am trying to learn price action. If you think we are diverting from Jackos method, you can PM me, thanks in advance
  • #2,162
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:15am Mar 27, 2008 5:15am
Quoting Khornate8
Just entered long at 1.5750. Had set the trade up 100pips below the top thinking it was a good sized dip. Will have to see. Today marks the first trade using solely jacko's methods after re-reading all the thread and joining the second group last week. So hopefully first trade wont be a fallen soldier.

K8

Wow, nice timing.

I'm in now at 1.58157
  • #2,163
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:30am Mar 27, 2008 5:30am
Thanks. Just set TSL to BE. Free trade.

K8
  • #2,164
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:32am Mar 27, 2008 5:32am
Hi Jacko and other Jacko followers,

I've been following this thread for quite a while prior to being a member of the Forex Factory and although my results are not nearly as good as others posting here, I am convinced the method is good.

My analysis is letting me down at the moment as I have missed some of the better runs of late. So I'm trying to find out where I'm going wrong.

I'm slowly getting less and less on my charts but one thing that I haven't really noted much discussion on is how much this method uses trendlines and horizontal lines. There was a brief discussion a little while ago about trendlines but it didn't seem to get much if any comment from Jacko so not sure if he read those posts or not.

On my 4hr chart I have 4 trendlines. One is for the move down from 1.5902, one is up from the low at 1.4438, another one up from the low at 1.4613 and another up from the low at 1.5363. I also have a few fib's drawn on the chart along with some horizontal lines showing support/resistance areas.

Am I still having too much on the chart?

Are trendlines and horizontal lines used much or is it really a bare chart and using fib's to show 50% retracements?

outapips
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
  • #2,165
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:38am Mar 27, 2008 5:38am
Hello EveryOne,

I have now taken profits on the 4 lots I had from several days ago. Closed all @ 5850.

In response to some about being stopped out. Yes you would have been stopped out if using the 50 pips stop & you would have made some nice pips if you had entered on the last run from the 5400 & 5500 levels. What I would tell everyone is to follow the 50 pip rule especially if you are just learning this method & as you gain some pips leave the 50 pip stop in place, move it to say 80 pips, or tighten it up to say 20-25 pips......it is up to you, but the rules does say 50 pips. I have traded for a long time & I might put somewhat of a different twist on the stops, but it is just what works for me.

Yes, I should have been stopped out sometime back, but I gave the PRICE SOME EXPANSION ROOM. Sometimes PRICE will make a retrace that is outside of the 50 pip stop range & that is what I try & avoid being caught in the more than a 50 pip retrace, but & the same time you do run the risk of losing more than the 50 pips. If are into a trade & you are up 100 pips & your lose 50 you are still to the good 50 pips, so following the rule you are going to do well. I could write a small book on PRICE RETRACEMENT & STOP PLACEMENTS, but thats for later.

The bottom line.........this is a great method if the rules are followed, but I know we all have the tendency to add to & subtract from method rules @ times. The only reason I do what I have stated above & on previous post is I know it works for me & it comes from experience. Following the 50 pip stop rule will no doubt keep you out of trouble, but you have to enter @ the correct time. Timimg your entry is very important to any method & this one is no exception, but if your timing is off the 50 pip stop will surely let you know.

FOLLOW THE RULES & YES I DO FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW THEM, but on this last move I felt so strongly about the strength of the move & the chance it would hit 1.6000 I made some adjustments.

Now do the math I made some very NICE GAINS on that move. What is next? I will look for the 5700, 5750 & 5800 for the next point of entry.

These are just my view, but I could be wrong.

________________________
AceTrader
  • #2,166
  • Mar 27, 2008 5:50am Mar 27, 2008 5:50am
FxTrader,

Looking for signs such as trendline breaks & candlestick patterns indicating a chance in direction, but maybe not in the trend direction. Candlestick patterns will give clues to a pending rectracement. That is the type of price action clues I would look for.
____________
AceTrader
  • #2,167
  • Mar 27, 2008 6:05am Mar 27, 2008 6:05am
Quoting acetrader
FxTrader,

Looking for signs such as trendline breaks & candlestick patterns indicating a chance in direction, but maybe not in the trend direction. Candlestick patterns will give clues to a pending rectracement. That is the type of price action clues I would look for.
____________
AceTrader
If you would be kind enaugh to tell us what made you decide to liquidate at 1.5850 ? Since you thought this is going for 1.6000 and that's only 8 pips below the high of yesturday. This would be a phenominal exit. And since you trail sometimes by more than 50 pips, and sometimes you tighter your stops closer when you feel that market is loosing strength. But in this case, you couldn't tighten your stop to 7 pips because that's just as good as closing position right away, probably wich you did. We had some slight pullbacks along this trade going up, but why this one to liquidate at?
I'm just amazed of how others enter at exact bottoms and exit at exact tops. Would you mind sharing all? How do you do it?
  • #2,168
  • Mar 27, 2008 6:25am Mar 27, 2008 6:25am
Quoting outapips
Hi Jacko and other Jacko followers,

I've been following this thread for quite a while prior to being a member of the Forex Factory and although my results are not nearly as good as others posting here, I am convinced the method is good.

My analysis is letting me down at the moment as I have missed some of the better runs of late. So I'm trying to find out where I'm going wrong.

I'm slowly getting less and less on my charts but one thing that I haven't really noted much discussion on is how much this method uses trendlines and horizontal lines. There was a brief discussion a little while ago about trendlines but it didn't seem to get much if any comment from Jacko so not sure if he read those posts or not.

On my 4hr chart I have 4 trendlines. One is for the move down from 1.5902, one is up from the low at 1.4438, another one up from the low at 1.4613 and another up from the low at 1.5363. I also have a few fib's drawn on the chart along with some horizontal lines showing support/resistance areas.

Am I still having too much on the chart?

Are trendlines and horizontal lines used much or is it really a bare chart and using fib's to show 50% retracements?

outapips
Outapips

Don't worry about missed runs. At least you didn't lose, plus you're learning to be patient which is very important. I think traders who take first glance at this method think that there aren't many opportunities because it's just one currency pair but believe me, there are plenty of them.

Judging from what you have on your charts, I think you may still have too many lines.

1. Focus on the bottom trendline and watch to see if price bounces off there (both on the 4 hour and daily)
2. On another chart have your 50.0% daily fib retracement

As for horizontal lines... I typically only use daily support levels based on the line chart (you can see how I do this in my journal). The only support level that I have based off this is way down at 1.4850 area which is too far down to even have on my charts right now lol.


Hope this helps.
  • #2,169
  • Mar 27, 2008 8:05am Mar 27, 2008 8:05am
Quoting kaunasny
Wow, nice timing.

I'm in now at 1.58157
Great place to pick a top , market moved up so fast yesturday, I quess I was expecting same on this move and didn't wait for retrace. I think it's better to be patient and wait for that retrace or if it never turns back leave it, there will be other oportunities to take. Lesson learned there, it cost me 46 pips, its free for you
  • #2,170
  • Mar 27, 2008 8:26am Mar 27, 2008 8:26am
Quoting kaunasny
Great place to pick a top , market moved up so fast yesturday, I quess I was expecting same on this move and didn't wait for retrace. I think it's better to be patient and wait for that retrace or if it never turns back leave it, there will be other oportunities to take. Lesson learned there, it cost me 46 pips, its free for you
One thing you must be careful of is when price shoots up too fast within a short period. If you look at yesterday's daily bar, it tends to be pretty long in length in comparison to the bars around it. When this happens, look at the 50.0% retracement level of that bar as a possible entry.
  • #2,171
  • Mar 27, 2008 9:49am Mar 27, 2008 9:49am
I have been following this thread for quite a while now and have to say I am impressed at how many people offer useful contributions. It is great to read and learn from many people in such a positive thread.

So thanks to all contributors and keep up the good work.

One thing which would be great is if ppl posted charts along with their comments as the visual aspect is easier to understand.

As for the method I am captivated by its simplicity and the following quotes on simplicity below seem appropriate:

Hans Hofmann
The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak.

 E. F. Schumacker
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius—and a lot of courage—to move in the opposite direction.

 Charles Mingus
Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that's creativity.

Leonardo da Vinci
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
  • #2,172
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:01pm Mar 27, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting kaunasny
If you would be kind enaugh to tell us what made you decide to liquidate at 1.5850 ? Since you thought this is going for 1.6000 and that's only 8 pips below the high of yesturday. This would be a phenominal exit. And since you trail sometimes by more than 50 pips, and sometimes you tighter your stops closer when you feel that market is loosing strength. But in this case, you couldn't tighten your stop to 7 pips because that's just as good as closing position right away, probably wich you did. We had some slight pullbacks along this trade going up, but why this one to liquidate at?
I'm just amazed of how others enter at exact bottoms and exit at exact tops. Would you mind sharing all? How do you do it?
Kaunasny,

Don't worry Ace never got out at "5850". I doubt he was still in from "5410" & "5434" anyway. How do I know? Well look at when we went over "5850" it was between 16:00 and 16:45 Eastern Standard Time yesterday. Yesterday at 18:20 EST Ace posted he was still in. We have not gone over "5850" since he posted.

If he could read price action as well as he's posting here he wouldn't need Jacko. Ace feels the need to be a big man while being dishonest to himself; not really a good recipe for succeeding in trading. You must be honest with yourself in order to improve.

You may have noticed my skeptism from my earlier posts. Having people post about their exits the don't follow Jacko's rules (especially when they are making them up) is no different than clogging up the thread with talk of different systems which utilize trailing indicators. When others aren't following the rules and supposedly making a great deal more in pips, it encourages those trying to learn and follow this method to second guess it, leave the rules behind because they are not good enough, and basically go back to trading without a plan.

As I pointed out before this method is very strong. I don't see that taking profits of 350 pips on the recent run up as anything to scoff at. Jacko's method to exit couldn't be more clear. What the better traders on this thread need to do is explain (which I believe they are trying to do) is where the entries are. Especially the re-entries after being stopped out at a profit.

Trading is all about learning to think critically and carefully, and yes keep it simple.

-Sean
  • #2,173
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:05pm Mar 27, 2008 12:05pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting seanchicago
If you started with a 100 pip stop and reduced it, that makes sense. I thought you were starting with the 50 pip and reduced it from there. I do think a 100 pip stop is rather risky, as I don't know that Jacko and his turtles tested it.

Although you really don't need to feel you have to explain it to me, I do appreciate your response.

Good luck and be careful,
Sean

Hi Sean
I noticed you were having issues with TSL, so here's how to decide

MONEY MANAGEMANT RULES

first decide how much you are prepaired to lose, possibly forever - this may be 1% until you get confident with the rules.

You have quite clearly noticed that 50pips is only generating small profits and closing you out early (in your opinion, don't forget when price runs it also keeps you near the top)

so you decide how many pips you the market will drop in the smaller waves (50, 60, 70, 100, 200pips and so on)

so we think that 67pips is a good point based on past experience (this is not a recommendation only a random number)

so our 1% = $500 and each pip has a value of $1, this means that price can move 500pips on one unit before we lose our 1% (hope your all keeping up with me on this - i can do it in my head but it's harder to put on paper)

now devide the 500 pips by the prefered SL of 67 and this give us the total number of lots that we can by with to remain within our 1% (7.5 lots with a 67pipTSL for a 1% risk)

so now all you need to do is decide the SL you wish to use and the risk you are prpaired to place and trade it that way.


where i think the problem comes for most people is the need to make large sums of money quickly, remember this is about %%%%%% all the way, once you get confident in the system you can always increase your capital to start earning larger sums, this method provides the opertunity to grow wealth steadily and calmly allowing you to enjoy life - yes you can make more money faster trading other systems, but i'm sure others will verify that you have no life that way.

hope this helps and is not to confusing. MM controls it all.
  • #2,174
  • Edited 12:16pm Mar 27, 2008 12:13pm | Edited 12:16pm
I understand the MM rules already (but sincerely thanks as the newbies on this thread will benefit from what you've written). I was really just trying to understand how some (one in particular) on the thread kept claiming to hold their positions through 75 pip drawdowns and then always close the positions within 20 pips of the tops. As I just posted above, I understand now; they aren't.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

-Sean
  • #2,175
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:19pm Mar 27, 2008 12:19pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting seanchicago
Kaunasny,

Don't worry Ace never got out at "5850". I doubt he was still in from "5410" & "5434" anyway. How do I know? Well look at when we went over "5850" it was between 16:00 and 16:45 Eastern Standard Time yesterday. Yesterday at 18:20 EST Ace posted he was still in. We have not gone over "5850" since he posted.

If he could read price action as well as he's posting here he wouldn't need Jacko. Ace feels the need to be a big man while being dishonest to himself; not really a good recipe for succeeding in trading. You must be honest with yourself in order to improve.

You may have noticed my skeptism from my earlier posts. Having people post about their exits the don't follow Jacko's rules (especially when they are making them up) is no different than clogging up the thread with talk of different systems which utilize trailing indicators. When others aren't following the rules and supposedly making a great deal more in pips, it encourages those trying to learn and follow this method to second guess it, leave the rules behind because they are not good enough, and basically go back to trading without a plan.

As I pointed out before this method is very strong. I don't see that taking profits of 350 pips on the recent run up as anything to scoff at. Jacko's method to exit couldn't be more clear. What the better traders on this thread need to do is explain (which I believe they are trying to do) is where the entries are. Especially the re-entries after being stopped out at a profit.

Trading is all about learning to think critically and carefully, and yes keep it simple.

-Sean
Hi sean
please think calm happy thoughts, your views on trading this method are good ones and you feel that you are trading strickly according to Jacko's rules, this is good and in the long run will pay dividens for your patience.

PM Jacko if you are having issues, you could also see if he has space for you in his group, well worth the small amount of funds, look at it like a college payment or something like that.

most importantly stick around, discuss your trades and views and ignor thoughs you don't like, tweaking the TSL is not that much of an issue, it's more about the overall approach to trading that wins through in the end.

best of pips

MPP

AH's collected at 1.5650 and 1.5680 (previous agresive trading) both out at 1.5750 all pips recovered, out of the market looking for better entry now.
  • #2,176
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:29pm Mar 27, 2008 12:29pm
Hi folks!

Currently out of the market. I've drawn a fib from the most recent retracement's low of 5341 on 3/23 to yesterdays high of 5859. The 50% level is right at 5600 so that is what I'm looking for in my next entry...but I suppose this could change.

~Cathy
Do or do not. There is no try. -- Yoda
  • #2,177
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:37pm Mar 27, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting MPP
Hi sean
please think calm happy thoughts, your views on trading this method are good ones and you feel that you are trading strickly according to Jacko's rules, this is good and in the long run will pay dividens for your patience.

PM Jacko if you are having issues, you could also see if he has space for you in his group, well worth the small amount of funds, look at it like a college payment or something like that.

most importantly stick around, discuss your trades and views and ignor thoughs you don't like, tweaking the TSL is not that much of an issue, it's more about the overall approach to trading that wins through in the end.

best of pips

MPP

AH's collected at 1.5650 and 1.5680 (previous agresive trading) both out at 1.5750 all pips recovered, out of the market looking for better entry now.
Believe me I'm calm, I just have a strong BS meter .

Not to complicate things but perhaps the 50 pips should expand. When we were trading 1.3000 the 50 pips was a .38% move, now at 1.5800 50 pips is .32%. As you may have seen in my earlier post there were two retracements out of the four most recent where a slightly larger TSL would have kept you in the trade. Perhaps we should be looking at a 60 pip (.38% of 1.5800) stop now? I would love to hear Jacko's views on this.

I'm flat right now as well. Looking to get back in at 1.5865 (new recent high) or much lower if we ever get a real retracement. This is the hardest part, the waiting.

Thanks for responding,

Sean
  • #2,178
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:38pm Mar 27, 2008 12:38pm
Please don't turn this thread into a pissing match again.... I can pee farther than all of you -want to know why? Anyway, if you don't beleive someone, just ignore them, calling them out over the internet is rediculous. I think it really bugged me before when poeple were calling BS on Jackos trades and he felt compelled to justify time stamps. Again - if you don't like it, don't listen. This thread has been so constructive lately. Thanks to everyone that contributes.
  • #2,179
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:44pm Mar 27, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting Forexian1
Please don't turn this thread into a pissing match again.... I can pee farther than all of you -want to know why? Anyway, if you don't beleive someone, just ignore them, calling them out over the internet is rediculous. This thread has been so constructive lately. Thanks to everyone that contributes.
I stand by my post. As I said If someone started pushing a moving average indicator, people would shut them down quickly (as they should). Posting about the results of other systems doesn't belong here. Expanding and contracting TSL is a completely different system and the results should be posted elsewhere.

This is no "pissing match" as I just want the thread to stay honest to Jacko's method.

-Sean
  • #2,180
  • Mar 27, 2008 2:08pm Mar 27, 2008 2:08pm
I'm in at 1.57857

Hourly chart shows strong trend wich has just been touched. I think market is strong and we will visit 1.5900 soon, or by the end of the week. Will see how this works out.
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