Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

I missed the euro train..
but did catch the swissy cross train..
GO MF GO!!!

Can't be bothered with the Yen crap and GU. I'll look at them when the carries are back.

It's ok, buy on the dips. When NY opens, they should push it higher, Imvho unless some MF decides that they want to prop up the $.

German companys feel confident they can cope with a strong Euro, while Belgium, France and Italy are hurting because of a strong Euro.
So the ECB does nothing until Germany feels effected and screw the rest of the E.U.

Isn't pride that get's you killed? We know that but they don't. So, what they don't know is to our advantage. If they are proud, then we should celebrate with them, by going Long in the Euro.

GO GY...216,66....next month!!

Today's movement shows that Tokyo and London are pricing in the US recession again, betting that the new home sales would be awful. Worse than forecast and we might test the bottom again imho.

What ho old beans ?

we are on the verge of a nice push up on cable and Euro one reckons and all that

just riding small waves up and baling out when they falter near 2.0000 - hoping for one of these waves to break out upwards

No faith in the DOW and getting my cash ready for a buying spree when that takes a header

Nothing else to do as it's 50 degrees here in Florida and too cold for the squirrels to come out (I hand feed them their breakfast of peanuts). It's more fun than flying concorde I can tell you.

Taxpayers May Be Liable for Billions From Bear, Mortgage Rescue

By Craig Torres and James Tyson

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Even as the Bush administration insists it won't risk public funds in a bailout, American taxpayers may already be liable for billions of dollars stemming from Federal Reserve and Treasury efforts to quell a financial crisis.

History suggests the Fed may not recover some of the almost $30 billion investment in illiquid mortgage securities it received from Bear Stearns Cos., said Joe Mason, a Drexel University professor who has written on banking crises. Treasury's push to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy more mortgage bonds reduces the capital the government-chartered companies hold in reserve at a time when foreclosures and defaults are surging.

Regulators ``are playing with fire,'' said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. ``With good luck, none of these liabilities will come due. We can't expect that good luck, and we haven't had it.''

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were forced to respond after capital markets seized up and Bear Stearns faced a run by creditors. In an emergency action that jeopardizes the dividend it pays the Treasury, the Fed authorized a $29 billion loan against illiquid mortgage- and asset-backed securities from Bear Stearns that will be held in a Delaware corporation. JPMorgan contributed $1 billion.

Dividend Jeopardized
The Delaware company will liquidate the assets over 10 years, with JPMorgan absorbing the first $1 billion in losses, with the Fed bearing any that remain. Any such losses would hurt the Fed's balance sheet, and ultimately the taxpayer, because they would reduce the stipend the Fed pays to the Treasury from earnings on its portfolio. The dividend was $29 billion in 2006.

``The fact that Treasury and Congress have been unwilling or unable to be proactive and provide a solution that involves putting taxpayer money at risk means that the Fed has had to take more measures itself, also putting taxpayer money at risk,'' said Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor, and now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington.

The Treasury is counting on voluntary loan restructurings and $117 billion in tax rebates to support the economy through the worst housing recession in a quarter century.

Scrutinizing Proposals
Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli referred to remarks Paulson made March 16 that he is ``looking very carefully'' at additional proposals, ``but all the ones I've seen call for much more government intervention.''

Republican presidential candidate John McCain signaled willingness to go further, saying in a speech yesterday that ``when we commit taxpayer dollars as assistance, it should be accompanied by reforms'' to ensure ``transparency and accountability.''

The average recovery on failed bank assets is 40 cents on the dollar over a six-year period, according to Drexel's Mason, a former official at the Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Nobody knows if that historical benchmark will hold for the Fed portfolio because the assets haven't been disclosed, they have already been marked down and the Fed has 10 years to recover value.

``Over 10 years, you might eventually get your money back,'' said Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago.

`Going to Be Lucky'
Still, ``that isn't costless to the Fed, it isn't the same as holding Treasuries,'' she said. On some low-documentation loans, ``you are going to be lucky to get 40 percent.''

Paulson reversed Treasury's stand of the previous three years in approving the decision to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand their $1.5 trillion mortgage assets. Previously, Treasury and the Fed had called for cuts in the portfolios held by the government-chartered companies.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buffer against more risk by raising ``significant'' capital, Fannie Mae Chief Executive Officer Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac Chief Executive Officer Richard Syron said at a press conference with James Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight that regulates the two companies.

The companies reported record fourth-quarter losses totaling $6 billion and warned days before announcing the additional purchases that credit losses will rise this year.

Lockhart dismissed the view that taxpayers could be liable for such losses. ``Certainly not,'' he said. The companies ``have the capital, they support their own'' mortgage-backed securities.

Implicit Guarantee
Yet the Treasury's authority to buy $2.25 billion in each of the companies' securities has created investor expectations that the firms hold an implicit federal guarantee against losses.

Lenders allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to borrow more cheaply than rival companies because they expect Treasury would provide a bailout before letting them default.

Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee about 40 percent of the $11.5 trillion home loan market, the cost of a bailout would be ``in the hundreds of billions of dollars,'' said Andrew Laperriere, managing director at International Strategy & Investment Group in Washington. ``Taxpayers should be increasingly concerned about the contingent liability.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at [color=#0000ff][email="[email protected] JamesTyson"][email protected][/color] JamesTyson[/email][color=#0000ff][email protected] in Washington at [/color] Last Updated: March 26, 2008 00:01 EDT

Well if that's the case, no 215 GY for you : but you can console yourself with 1.65 Euro

LOL.. how come GJ 215 and EU 1.65 come together??
But i dont care GJ 215 or 190.. just give me my pips..

Amen to that.

New family homes falls to 13 year low, a fib number, could go up from here? or will we fall to a 21 year low next month? These markets are just disgusting.

I agree. Just annoying.

I agree. I'm only trading two pairs, move slow as turtles but they give me my pips.

But better than forecast.. so means good news?? DT.. please help to analyze good/bad news again..

We can always go to Oakland and get a degree on growing medical herbs. No seriously.

http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/Depart...tion&GT1=27001

The way things are headed, might as well get a head start.

I have several friends who make around 30k every 3mos or whenever their crop rotates. This message will self destruct in 10 seconds, 9, 8...

I went to look at buying a second hand home the other day here in Florida..

We had to wait two days as so many people were waiting in line to view it

It has been on the market 3 weeks but interest is picking up - a lot

We went to make a bid on another house only to learn it had been sold 2 hours earlier

I have made an appointment to see another house next sunday - we can't get an appointment to see it until then as the houseowner is tired of all the potential buyers waiting in line

You won't get this kind of info from the stats - not until the main movers have capitalised on it