Simple Trading Diary - Mainly GJ

The time is it GMT+1 or what?

today's fast also target 50 pips hit from 1.9815

oh i forgot about my first post

no longer use that strategy since i had to check the price every 15 minutes or so and i have a dayjob

i'm now using daily strategy

i will fix the first post in a while

USD/JPY, looks like it going up stronger than GBP/USD or EUR/USD

this might lead to somewhat risky USD based investment, with the small interest rate difference between the USD and JPY (now at only less than 2%) i doubt that this conversion will run into safe small yielding investments

not sure yet, but it might a good week for stockmarket going up

> His answer was "Don't know"?


yes

he played commodities but never know major parameters influencing its movement

inflation and USD

> > unless you are an intraday player BUYING
> overvalued
> > commodities while the USD is in big probability
> for a
> > bullish trend is somewhat absurd and that is a
> very
> > risky investment decision IMO
> >
>
> Hmm…gue masih gak liat what's the relation with USD?
> Because
> commodity is a safeheaven when the $ is bear? And
> since the $ is
> bull, the commodity will got down?

not 100%

if USD is bullish chance commodity in medium - long term for making a strong bull is small

>
> Sebenernya main intraday bisa nic…Cuma mungkin mesti
> liat indicator yg
> berbeda….so far kalo gut liat di 60min intraday
> chart, using 5,10 SMA
> proven to be right most of the time. Today I'm
> planning to take some
> profit from financial…it's been up lately and as
> gravity rule
> says…what's goes up will go down…

in your dream huehehehe
dun waste your time trying to find the best indicators that will suit for intraday with high winning percentage chance

you can't just say most of the time, in order to win the impossible task we need to take EVERY sma cross, many people tried to take only limited signals (eg just take the signals 30 minutes after opening) in order to reduce the drawdown but that IMO doesn't help either

ok tentang false signals and how i plan to reduce them...

first we need to locate 8 - 10 pairs (in forex) or you can pick certain stocks which most likely will move in accordance to each other

in forex I choose only carry trade pairs which have similar behavior

then I put the same indicators on each pair, I would only take into consideration if I get the same signals from almost ALL pairs (currently 6 of 8), if I get a BUY from A but a SELL from B that means most likely, a false one or we are in a consolidation period

heheheh this is another secret (i think)

so instead of plugging in 2 - 3 indicators and wait until all are confirmed (and in the process we would get some lagging signals) it's better to use 1 indicator and wait until it is confirmed on all similar charts (I would call them as a family chart)

blue chips charts I believe is a family chart since many mutual fund manager just trade a group of strong companies in their portfolio, quite make sense huh?

i would declare today as my EUREKA day lol

series of bad news but i found something that might be interesting for you to look at

check the attachment and this is how to read it:

you know i've been talking about the family chart
so i tried the 3 cfd charts which i thought must had some correlation i picked HP, Intel and Microsoft

I plugged my indicator

and watch it, we would take only consideration if we have the same direction on all of the charts (3 charts)

so

1. we buy all stocks on the 1st quarter of 2007

the red circle is our entry, since we need to wait until the 3rd signal arised

2. we sell on may 2007
3. we buy during the summer of 2007
4. another sell on July 2007 (this was the subprime thing)
5. buy on august 2007 - oct 07

and this is the amazing finding

check on HP and intel charts and how many false signals you might get there??? there were like 10 of them while the microsoft only gave one clear signal on the way up to the end of october 2007

6. sell at the end of oct 07
7. buy early dec 07
8. sell late dec
9. buy on feb 08

OK this clearly still need a lot of investigation but i think this theory is going somewhere, and tell you what, those signals that were received from the 3 hardware software companies are the same with the major movement for all carry trades pairs, again, coincidence??? i dun think so

now if we have 6, 7, or 8 stocks with similar behavior but different volatility we will have a perfect family with high winning probability

what do you think?

rgds

OK yesterday I have found my way of trading which I believe is the best way of trading in all sense. It is not the 100% stuff or holy grail dream however it is fit my common sense while still give quite high winning chance. I'm quite proud to find this only after 5,5 months on forex trading. I solved the mystery of HYIP 2 years ago in 3 months but unfortunately after Stormpay problem many did withdrew from the arena and so did I.

I will share my process and struggle since eventhough I have been in the FF since November i haven't find any strategy which could be useful and tradeable here, however FF has helped me to see the weaknesses of others' strategy thus help me in my way to find my "holy grail"

so, I will end my thread here by giving you the following arguments and I will write my opinion on various strategy/trading method. I might be continue sending my trading results and write my comment on various threads.

1. What do you think is the characteristic of a good strategy?

IMO, the good strategy should has the following characteristics:

A. Logical - it should have a sound logic and would be easily followed by many people, otherwise your strategy is crippled just due to the fact only YOU can understand it

B. Easy to follow - I'm a thoughtful person, I think about everything everyday, however when it comes to trading I would just need to simplify everything.

C. Universal - it should be applicable to anything tradeable on Earth (or well ... 90% of them), my strategy works well in all forex pairs, stock charts, commidity charts, etc.

2. Why do you think 95% of traders failed?

the reason is simply due to MISSFOCUS

I have said many times in this forum DON'T focus on the DIRECTION focus on the PATTERN

many people fall to the wrong assumption that in order to master the trading arena one needs to be extremely good predictors of market direction

WRONG!!!

this assumption leads many traders to believe that they need to focus on only one pair and infact many seniors advised the same method for beginner. this training method will only push you down and perhaps get you into a deeper level of disappointment

my best advise is to stop trying for market direction prediction

quit wasting your time trying to figure out what is the best indicator, what is the best time to enter the market, what is the best money management etc etc

if you have find your trading EDGE then you will get the opposite flow.

this is the 95% failed traders flow of thoughts:

1. searching for others' holy grail
2. finding the best indicator or combination of them
3. figuring out how to reduce drawdown (and really put the best effort on this impossible task)
4. then backtesting, EA, backtesting, EA

some even tried to go live after step 2 (including me with my first live trading account)

this is what the 5% think:

1. it start by asking the following questions:

A. Who moved the market?
B. Do I move the market?
C. Oh, so the big boys moved the market afterall, otherwise all of us small traders should be rich by now. Would there be any way for me to predict the big boys actions?
D. Who are the real big boys? Hedge fund manager, mutual fund man, institutional traders, bankers?
E. Oh so this is actually a war between us and those big boys, it is a war between the 5% of population who hold the 95% of the money vs 95% of us small traders who control only 5% of the money. Without a proper strategy you will lose all of your money.
F. Where would the big boys invest their money? In stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities?
G. Would mastering the macro economics help me?
H. Would reading 20 business journals and news every day help me in anyway?
I. What is the news afterall, are they predictors or just followers and offering reason to the lay people of the fact that already happened?
J. If I'm a hedge fund manager what would I do?
K. What would I do to increase my money faster? Would I coordinate with a broker and help them to make money by welcoming newcomers and fresh blood to the arena?
M. If I hold $10 billion would I invest them all in Hang Seng and Shanghai? Or would I diversify?
N. How would I diversify my portfolio?

and the question list would go on and on until you finally grasp the most logical answer to all of those questions. perhaps we would never get the real answers to those question but we can speculate on them. afterall traders equal speculators rite?

2. then one would start to look for pattern and correlation since we would never be able to extract the big boys information. when this pattern match your speculative theory you get the EDGE

3. the 5% will use indicators only to confirm the pattern
however the good strategy should still be applicable no matter what indicator or strategy being implemented

i'm running my strategy using MACD but my fellow stock trader use Support and Resistance lines using the same theory as I do and it also works well

so it doesn't matter what indicator you are using it is how you interpret them that I believe is the right way of using indicators in trading

4. you start thinking of the money management

you are not someone who holds $100 billion right? so don't expect to have a 100% winning trades, loss and sometime consecutive losses might come even with the BEST trading strategy simply because you are human

I've done it many times, buy the wrong pair, buy when I intended to go for short, forget putting S/L or T/P etc.

So good luck in your trading career and keep believing that there is one good reliable strategy for you.

For those who search for the best indicator I advised you to stop looking and wasting your time.

A good indicator-based strategy should be able to answer the following questions:

1. When to enter
2. when to exit

sounds simple?

NO!!! because 100% of indicators are repainting themselves so they all look good when you backtested them

but in live cases that will not be necessarily tradable

actually I was quite surprise (and now I'm more surprise after figuring out my trading strat) that some 1KT members of this forum are indicator-based traders, and here is the 3rd requirement of a good indicator-based strategy

3. you should be able to tell whether the market is trending or sideway

anyone has any long term history of success on this?

indicators are just MA, period.
it is basically saying that you are currently above or below a certain moving averages. it doesn't imply in anyway that if you are above the x MA the market is going up and if you are below the x the market is going down. if you have sideway market the indicators will shout BUY, SELL, BUY, SELL every couple minutes (if you are scalpers)

and this 3rd question is the impossible task. nobody can tell when a market is about to trend or when a market find its bottom and rebounce

no offense at all to indicator traders

I, too was a fanatic indicator trader but after finding its biggest fallacy I move on to pattern