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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,781
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:53am Jan 19, 2007 4:53am
Quoting monarch
This is the area where the decision will be made. Even though 9722 looks to be holding it down, it actually could be holding it back.

We may see a spike if 9722 loses it strentgh, and traders jump into Long again.

9700 and below will be a tough line to break right now.
after 9700 , next point will be 1.9660 ???
  • #2,782
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:58am Jan 19, 2007 4:58am
Quoting cesarnc
Actual 5min candle opened below 9716. I'm waiting for no 9716 touch to short it.

Not a recommendation.
Awaiting hourly to close, instead... same criteria
  • #2,783
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:00am Jan 19, 2007 5:00am
Quoting cesarnc
Awaiting hourly to close, instead... same criteria
Just failed...

it's going to be a loooong day...

Correcting - long waiting... Not long (bullish)..
  • #2,784
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:19am Jan 19, 2007 5:19am
Quoting cesarnc
Just failed...

it's going to be a loooong day...

Correcting - long waiting... Not long (bullish)..

Cesar,

Why are you looking to go long? Don't you follow "Goodthings" statistics? Something about if a pair moves 40/50 pips than it's a small percent chance it moves back above/below the daily hi/lo. Not attacking you, just wondering. Have you found those statistics to work?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
  • #2,785
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:35am Jan 19, 2007 5:35am
Quoting Pickensrulz
Cesar,

Why are you looking to go long? Don't you follow "Goodthings" statistics? Something about if a pair moves 40/50 pips than it's a small percent chance it moves back above/below the daily hi/lo. Not attacking you, just wondering. Have you found those statistics to work?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Statistics based on a daily range can vary in accuracy greatly under differing market conditions. It can help build a case as someone explained earlier, but this is a very small part. Yesterday he told me my long had a 14% chance and still it flew 100 pips. Although they can be slightly useful, these statistics are abnormal not mathematical truths.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,786
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:38am Jan 19, 2007 5:38am
Quoting Pickensrulz
Cesar,

Why are you looking to go long? Don't you follow "Goodthings" statistics? Something about if a pair moves 40/50 pips than it's a small percent chance it moves back above/below the daily hi/lo. Not attacking you, just wondering. Have you found those statistics to work?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Hey Pickens,

I'm not looking to go long, I meant today is going to be a long (duration) day. I was looking to short it.

However, here's my view:

I've seen this market "play by the fibs" BEFORE hitting the 100%. I just realized that after having the high in place, but you can see the movement following this "ghost" fib.

So here's what I did: While we were at 9740s early today (GMT) I've draw a fib from low 9635 as to engulf the strong areas up to then. Guess what? The 100% at 9846 just popped !

Is this a valid method? I don't know. I´m just givingit a try. But this long period at 9716 is exactly at the 61% fib!!! It is still playing by the Low 9635 / high 9846 as if it already existed...

And 9716 is nexto to 9722, that plays mixed support/resistance and we're ranging between them

So the bull is still around here...

The overall trend is up and I don't want to short this market simply because we dropped from 9772. This is one event only, that doesn't match with the general overview, in my opinion....

It is all about the bull buffering NYC open and a possible USD-positive news today, preventing from sinking too deep and we'll see 9SKIES on next week.
  • #2,787
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:38am Jan 19, 2007 5:38am
Can someone please enlighten me. Is the candle made the last hour considered a pin?
  • #2,788
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:40am Jan 19, 2007 5:40am
Quoting Leugimp
Statistics based on a daily range can vary in accuracy greatly under differing market conditions. It can help build a case as someone explained earlier, but this is a very small part. Yesterday he told me my long had a 14% chance and still it flew 100 pips. Although they can be slightly useful, these statistics are abnormal not mathematical truths.
I am not knocking it, but if that statistic is going to keep you from taking a very strong signal against it, well then I guess thats ok too....I'm trying to say that the 90% statistic is only 5% of the puzzle.

Whether cesar is right or wrong it is irrelevant, but for all shorts it is a definite warning signal that price hasn't penetrated 9700 yet.

I personally think it will, but needs to rise then fall to pick up steam- an increase in volatility should get us through, however, that is very easy for me to say right now because im not putting money on it, all i have is a little buy order far away from here.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,789
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:43am Jan 19, 2007 5:43am
Quoting Leugimp
Statistics based on a daily range can vary in accuracy greatly under differing market conditions. It can help build a case as someone explained earlier, but this is a very small part. Yesterday he told me my long had a 14% chance and still it flew 100 pips. Although they can be slightly useful, these statistics are abnormal not mathematical truths.
Leugimp,
I've got a background as an actuary so I'm very well acquainted with statistics and how to interpret them. As far as "mathematical truths" go, I'd agree that there are none found in this field. Basically, trading in forex (as well as any game of chance) should come down to probabilities of occurence that yield a positive expected value.
  • #2,790
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:49am Jan 19, 2007 5:49am
Quoting Pickensrulz
Leugimp,
I've got a background as an actuary so I'm very well acquainted with statistics and how to interpret them. As far as "mathematical truths" go, I'd agree that there are none found in this field. Basically, trading in forex (as well as any game of chance) should come down to probabilities of occurence that yield a positive expected value.
I apologize if my words came out arrogantly, didn't mean it as such
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,791
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:51am Jan 19, 2007 5:51am
Quoting Pickensrulz
Leugimp,
I've got a background as an actuary so I'm very well acquainted with statistics and how to interpret them. As far as "mathematical truths" go, I'd agree that there are none found in this field. Basically, trading in forex (as well as any game of chance) should come down to probabilities of occurence that yield a positive expected value.
All of this talking shows exactly that people around the world are in indecision, just like us...

And whether or not we will see 9660 or 9860 is for scalping purposes only. If we were carrying a long position from 9606 we wouldn't be worried as of now, would we?
  • #2,792
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:52am Jan 19, 2007 5:52am
ran up through the thirties lets see if this was the expected spike and comes back down to low twenties or below
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,793
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:52am Jan 19, 2007 5:52am
Quoting cesarnc
So the bull is still around here...

The overall trend is up and I don't want to short this market simply because we dropped from 9772. This is one event only, that doesn't match with the general overview, in my opinion....

It is all about the bull buffering NYC open and a possible USD-positive news today, preventing from sinking too deep and we'll see 9SKIES on next week.

Yea Cesar,
There is still a case to be made for gbp to continue pressing forward...fer shizzle. lol.
  • #2,794
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:57am Jan 19, 2007 5:57am
Quoting cesarnc
All of this talking shows exactly that people around the world are in indecision, just like us...

And whether or not we will see 9660 or 9860 is for scalping purposes only. If we were carrying a long position from 9606 we wouldn't be worried as of now, would we?
Well, we are right in the middle of the daily trading range so lets see which way is decided for now
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,795
  • Jan 19, 2007 5:57am Jan 19, 2007 5:57am
Quoting Leugimp
ran up through the thirties lets see if this was the expected spike and comes back down to low twenties or below
Ok, now this "Ghost" fib has the 50% at 9741, exactly where we sit for some time as of today. We also ranged between this 50% fib and the 38% fib (9765).

And we just bounced from the 61 fib at 9716.

See my point here?
The GHOST FIBONACCI
HIGH 9846
23 - 9796
38 - 9765
50 - 9741
61 - 9716
78 - 9680
LOW 9635.

I don't have money on it. But I'd like to see how this works out during the day... If I have to no-trade today, it's ok. It's gonna be a good learning afterall.
  • #2,796
  • Jan 19, 2007 6:03am Jan 19, 2007 6:03am
50% of 1.9772 to 1.9707 is 1.9740 also, should be mildly restricting
  • #2,797
  • Jan 19, 2007 6:08am Jan 19, 2007 6:08am
Quoting Pickensrulz
50% of 1.9772 to 1.9707 is 1.9740 also, should be mildly restricting
Yeah... New Yorkers will call the shot ... Too bad. I has hoping to see a more structured Europe session this morning...
  • #2,798
  • Jan 19, 2007 6:12am Jan 19, 2007 6:12am
Earlier I mentioned the 1.9772 to 1.9711 Fib on the 1 or 5 min charts. The price had retraced to the 23.6% line of that Fib, now the price has made it to and is respecting the 38.2% line of that Fib. The 50.0% line of this Fib
at 1.9742 and the 61.8% at 1.9749 have even more resistance.
  • #2,799
  • Jan 19, 2007 6:15am Jan 19, 2007 6:15am
Quoting wpbsyn
Earlier I mentioned the 1.9772 to 1.9711 Fib on the 1 or 5 min charts. The price had retraced to the 23.6% line of that Fib, now the price has made it to and is respecting the 38.2% line of that Fib. The 50.0% line of this Fib
at 1.9742 and the 61.8% at 1.9749 have even more resistance.
Exactly...

Now we have a minefield of S&R's here. The good news is that we know where they are...
  • #2,800
  • Jan 19, 2007 6:18am Jan 19, 2007 6:18am
I did not see Monarch's name listed as being logged on but can anyone tell me if he is using the 250 EMA because of personal experience and preference? Just curious. I find it interesting to see which type and period of Moving Averages that different people use and why they choose what they do.
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