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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,761
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:09am Jan 19, 2007 4:09am
Quoting Ghostpipper
wow u have balls to short gbp at top of great retail sales? yer fricken nuts man, what was yer reasoning for that exactly?
Becasue i know that USD now try to push down GBP and all positive news for US economic make it powerful , then retail sales cann't breake 1.9777 ....

now

Jan 19, 14:45 GMT ---United States ---Michigan Consumer Sentiment ---91.70 % -----92.00 %
Jan 22, 15:00 GMT ---United States ---Leading Indicator Index ----------0.10 % -------0.20 %
Jan 24, 15:30 GMT ---United States ---Crude Oil Inventories -------------6768.00 K
Jan 25, 13:30 GMT ---United States ---Initial Jobless Claims -------------290.00 K
  • #2,762
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:10am Jan 19, 2007 4:10am
Quoting Leugimp
I think a retrace to 9732 is due befor another daily range expansion.

to build more steam that is
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,763
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:10am Jan 19, 2007 4:10am
Quoting Leugimp
I think a retrace to 9732 is due befor another daily range expansion.
1.9730 was my expectation.
  • #2,764
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:14am Jan 19, 2007 4:14am
i am not in the habit of picking tops 9730-9780 GU seems to have trouble penetrating this area. does anyone else see this???
  • #2,765
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:14am Jan 19, 2007 4:14am
Don't you just love the 1.9722 number, it almost reminds me of the 1.9622 that we have been working with for this whole week.

1.9722 was a resistance turned support, now is trying to convert once again.

I remember this number in December also.
  • #2,766
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:15am Jan 19, 2007 4:15am
supports resistances
S1 - 1,9720 R1 - 1,9780
S2 - 1,9660 R2 - 1,9840
S3 - 1,9580 R3 - 1,9900
  • #2,767
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:16am Jan 19, 2007 4:16am
Quoting monarch
Don't you just love the 1.9722 number, it almost reminds me of the 1.9622 that we have been working with for this whole week.

1.9722 was a resistance turned support, now is trying to convert once again.

I remember this number in December also.
Yes a do. Made very good pips out of it when playing resistance a couple of days ago...
  • #2,768
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:16am Jan 19, 2007 4:16am
Quoting obeewon
i am not in the habit of picking tops 9730-9780 GU seems to have trouble penetrating this area. does anyone else see this???
only a matter of time
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,769
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:17am Jan 19, 2007 4:17am
Quoting cesarnc
to which direction? sorry, I'm still slow to understand such terms
Good Morning Everyone, Cesarnc, an example of divergence is when you have a momentum indicator such as the MACD (12,26,9 calibration) and it would turn south but the price is still heading north. This is called a divergence, because the indicator is showing a move south but the price is still moving north. Imagine a rubber band connecting the price as it continue to rise, to the indicator as it falls. At some point the price submits to what the indicator is predicting and we see moves such as the one that just occured after the news event.
  • #2,770
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:23am Jan 19, 2007 4:23am
Quoting wpbsyn
Good Morning Everyone, Cesarnc, an example of divergence is when you have a momentum indicator such as the MACD (12,26,9 calibration) and it would turn south but the price is still heading north. This is called a divergence, because the indicator is showing a move south but the price is still moving north. Imagine a rubber band connecting the price as it continue to rise, to the indicator as it falls. At some point the price submits to what the indicator is predicting and we see moves such as the one that just occured after the news event.
Thanks buddy...

I'm on the fibo you mentioned, too...
  • #2,771
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:24am Jan 19, 2007 4:24am
Quoting wpbsyn
Good Morning Everyone, Cesarnc, an example of divergence is when you have a momentum indicator such as the MACD (12,26,9 calibration) and it would turn south but the price is still heading north. This is called a divergence, because the indicator is showing a move south but the price is still moving north. Imagine a rubber band connecting the price as it continue to rise, to the indicator as it falls. At some point the price submits to what the indicator is predicting and we see moves such as the one that just occured after the news event.
Or a positive reversal forms making the indicator snap to the upside to follow price. It is a tricky set with divergence, especially timing.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,772
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:27am Jan 19, 2007 4:27am
macd on 4hr is showing diverence also.. price is showing higher highs but macd is leveling/ declining
  • #2,773
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:28am Jan 19, 2007 4:28am
Quoting viking
Becasue i know that USD now try to push down GBP and all positive news for US economic make it powerful , then retail sales cann't breake 1.9777 ....

now

Jan 19, 14:45 GMT ---United States ---Michigan Consumer Sentiment ---91.70 % -----92.00 %
Jan 22, 15:00 GMT ---United States ---Leading Indicator Index ----------0.10 % -------0.20 %
Jan 24, 15:30 GMT ---United States ---Crude Oil Inventories -------------6768.00 K
Jan 25, 13:30 GMT ---United States ---Initial Jobless Claims -------------290.00 K

That's a great point Viking. don't forget about philly manufacturing and housing data. They rocked too! Everyone was ready to throw the USD under the bus. It has taken solid data to keep it from happening. With only U of M sentiment out later focus might be on this string on positive data.

Good trades....
  • #2,774
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:35am Jan 19, 2007 4:35am
back to 9722 ... Don't even know if it is support or resistance right now
  • #2,775
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:36am Jan 19, 2007 4:36am
Fib on the 1 min or 5 min chart from 1.9772 to 1.9711. The price just bounced off of the 23.6% line and is now heading south.

Along with many other "pieces of the puzzle" (a number of indicators), I use the depth of the Fib retraces as a "barometer" of the strength of the move of the price. If we see the price starting a major run north, if it is very strong, the retraces could be almost non-existent. The price may just go horizontal and allow the indicators to "catch their breath" or reset for another move north, but as the retraces become deeper such as 23.6% then the next may be 38.2%%, then 61.8% etc., that is a heads up that the move is losing steam. At that point be ready to start drawing Fibs high to low, as the market may soon accelerate the move south. This is just an
example.
  • #2,776
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:40am Jan 19, 2007 4:40am
Quoting wpbsyn
Fib on the 1 min or 5 min chart from 1.9772 to 1.9711. The price just bounced off of the 23.6% line and is now heading south.

Along with many other "pieces of the puzzle" (a number of indicators), I use the depth of the Fib retraces as a "barometer" of the strength of the move of the price. If we see the price starting a major run north, if it is very strong, the retraces could be almost non-existent. The price may just go horizontal and allow the indicators to "catch their breath" or reset for another move north, but as the retraces become deeper such as 23.6% then the next may be 38.2%%, then 61.8% etc., that is a heads up that the move is losing steam. At that point be ready to start drawing Fibs high to low, as the market may soon accelerate the move south. This is just an
example.
This is the area where the decision will be made. Even though 9722 looks to be holding it down, it actually could be holding it back.

We may see a spike if 9722 loses it strentgh, and traders jump into Long again.

9700 and below will be a tough line to break right now.
  • #2,777
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:40am Jan 19, 2007 4:40am
Quoting wpbsyn
Fib on the 1 min or 5 min chart from 1.9772 to 1.9711. The price just bounced off of the 23.6% line and is now heading south.

Along with many other "pieces of the puzzle" (a number of indicators), I use the depth of the Fib retraces as a "barometer" of the strength of the move of the price. If we see the price starting a major run north, if it is very strong, the retraces could be almost non-existent. The price may just go horizontal and allow the indicators to "catch their breath" or reset for another move north, but as the retraces become deeper such as 23.6% then the next may be 38.2%%, then 61.8% etc., that is a heads up that the move is losing steam. At that point be ready to start drawing Fibs high to low, as the market may soon accelerate the move south. This is just an
example.

diver on 1hr and 4hr macd agree with this statement
  • #2,778
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:43am Jan 19, 2007 4:43am
Quoting Leugimp
Or a positive reversal forms making the indicator snap to the upside to follow price. It is a tricky set with divergence, especially timing.
I totally agree, Leugimp. That's the importance of using multiple indicators. Just as an attorney builds a case we have to look for evidence to build our case to enter each trade. If we rely on just a couple of indicators it will cost us, but the more "evidence" that we can assemble, the stronger the trade.
Thank you for pointing that out so people didn't take that example as Gospel.
  • #2,779
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:49am Jan 19, 2007 4:49am
Quoting Leugimp
Or a positive reversal forms making the indicator snap to the upside to follow price. It is a tricky set with divergence, especially timing.
That's what I'm afraid of here. Price must sink in the next 1hr candle to catch up with the indicators, otherwise we will have oversoldish indicators with low price movement
  • #2,780
  • Jan 19, 2007 4:53am Jan 19, 2007 4:53am
Actual 5min candle opened below 9716. I'm waiting for no 9716 touch to short it.

Not a recommendation.
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