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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,041
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:11am Mar 20, 2008 10:11am
Quoting Phillip Nel
When price is in an uptrend and it goes below 21 it tends to pull back to it and then may go down to 89. That has been tought from the beginning and so many times. So it is nothing new. Just prove that it works. Even if someone is posting it after the time just confirm something that has been taught many times and it proves that it works but some people just dont believe it. Unfortuantly they lose out.

Thankyou Phillip.. i appreciate it. i wanted to answer but was sticking to the rules of ignoring annoying posts !!! i think we have not seen the last of it.

Thankyou for the Rhythm Cycle post . it is great to refresh ones minds even if they think they know the rhythm...
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,042
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:27am Mar 20, 2008 10:27am
Quoting Phillip Nel
When price is in an uptrend and it goes below 21 it tends to pull back to it and then may go down to 89. That has been tought from the beginning and so many times. So it is nothing new. Just prove that it works. Even if someone is posting it after the time just confirm something that has been taught many times and it proves that it works but some people just dont believe it. Unfortuantly they lose out.

no posting after the time makes you filter bad trades,
look at usdjpy 4H chart using fxdd timezone, price broke 21 on 3/18 and then tested back 21 and then broke up again today on the 8:00 bar to close @99.55 so according to what you say we should have bought it because it will most probably move to the 89, but it didn't and it is down now 70 pips ,
this is just one example, posting after the move the success trades isn't good because there also many other failed trades with the same rules which are not posted
  • #13,043
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:43am Mar 20, 2008 10:43am
Quoting mike_dg
no posting after the time makes you filter bad trades,
look at usdjpy 4H chart using fxdd timezone, price broke 21 on 3/18 and then tested back 21 and then broke up again today on the 8:00 bar to close @99.55 so according to what you say we should have bought it because it will most probably move to the 89, but it didn't and it is down now 70 pips ,
this is just one example, posting after the move the success trades isn't good because there also many other failed trades with the same rules which are not posted
Mike,

We dont see you posting any of your trades/charts! Why be negative to others that are helping others & trying to get a better understanding for themselves?

You seem very negative towards this system so why not leave the thread? You have a choice like everyone else!!
  • #13,044
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:58am Mar 20, 2008 10:58am
Quoting mike_dg
no posting after the time makes you filter bad trades,
look at usdjpy 4H chart using fxdd timezone, price broke 21 on 3/18 and then tested back 21 and then broke up again today on the 8:00 bar to close @99.55 so according to what you say we should have bought it because it will most probably move to the 89, but it didn't and it is down now 70 pips ,
this is just one example, posting after the move the success trades isn't good because there also many other failed trades with the same rules which are not posted
Hey Mike,
I trade Yen pairs too.I remember once I asked Phillip about applying rules on these pairs and he answered me I should back test it by myself.He usually trade Eur/us and Pound/us

My backtest on G/J shows this rule you are talking about mostly don't work on G/j and may be U/j.

I send you a pic of G/J which happened recently.As you see price broke the 21 ,Came back to it but it didn't go to 89 and I didn't expect it!!

I like your posts because it brings up questions and make me think more.I don't care if you chalenge the system but I think it would be better if you try to make it better with your suggestions.

As it easy to analyse the market afterward also it's easy to peak on a system too.

I haven't seen any system perfect and if you check my posts you see I've been reading at least 5-7 different systems only in forexfactory.

I am not going to ignore you but I expect being positive.

We are all here to make money not to proof each other we can't make money.

Today is our new year (First day of spring) so I wish all a happy new year with lots of pips

Best Wishes
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #13,045
  • Mar 20, 2008 11:28am Mar 20, 2008 11:28am
Hi Mike, Happy New year, and thanks for such a great post.

I totally agree with you. we are all here to learn . Criticism and challange is always welcome.. i always encourage members to critisize or challange my posts as well. we also have to keep in mind the nature of the critism and challange. Life is not a bed of roses and it is good to have posts that keep us in line and not get carried away with unreal positivity . Think of this way. some one who is learning and getting to know the rhythm of the market combined with candle emotion, support resistance , break outs, fibs retrace and so much more,. people are asking questions, sharing their wins and losses . other member helping them why it was a loss . was it wrong entry, did they read the market wrong or was it because of poor money management. some one who is having a hard time understanding is taught over and over agian until they get it or decide this is not for them. We are all here to learn , not to judge someone, But it is also important to understand the nature and motive of a post and someones willingness to learn or to disrupt .
Enjoy your new year. and i wish you plenty of pips.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,046
  • Mar 20, 2008 11:58am Mar 20, 2008 11:58am
hi all
its the first day of iranian new year and i was not in the market today and maybe for few days.
i hope a good year ,full of peace,full of pips and,full of friendship for all.
happy new year
  • #13,047
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:09pm Mar 20, 2008 12:09pm
VHands Trading Simulator
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

Has anyone here tried this for practice. It's not exactly the same as live trading but it does help you recognize PA and S&R (it helps me anyway)

It also helps me build confidence which is something I'm lacking this month for some reason

So I'll be using it over the weekend and go backtest some more and study Phillip's Rhythm Cycles again and again. Thanks Phillip for posting that, hopefully it will help get my confidence back and lose the fear that I'm currently in. It usually does
  • #13,048
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:12pm Mar 20, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting mike1349
Hey Mike,
I trade Yen pairs too.I remember once I asked Phillip about applying rules on these pairs and he answered me I should back test it by myself.He usually trade Eur/us and Pound/us

My backtest on G/J shows this rule you are talking about mostly don't work on G/j and may be U/j.

I send you a pic of G/J which happened recently.As you see price broke the 21 ,Came back to it but it didn't go to 89 and I didn't expect it!!

I like your posts because it brings up questions and make me think more.I don't care if you chalenge the system but I think it would be better if you try to make it better with your suggestions.

As it easy to analyse the market afterward also it's easy to peak on a system too.

I haven't seen any system perfect and if you check my posts you see I've been reading at least 5-7 different systems only in forexfactory.

I am not going to ignore you but I expect being positive.

We are all here to make money not to proof each other we can't make money.

Today is our new year (First day of spring) so I wish all a happy new year with lots of pips

Best Wishes
Mike
Very interestng, thank you for sharing!

I thought about taking the USDJPY long on the close of a very bullish 4hour candle on a possible move to the 89 EMA. But I chickened out, something didn't feel right. I would have been stopped out by now.

It sounds like we really should focus this method on the EURUSD and the GBPUSD, unless we see low hanging fruit (easy) trades on the other pairs.
  • #13,049
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:29pm Mar 20, 2008 12:29pm
Hi Nadia,
Thank very much for your reply. It is very helpful and wise. The hardest thing you need to manage in forex for me has proved to be the mind. But in time I hope to learn more the market and control more the mind.
  • #13,050
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:39pm Mar 20, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting mike_dg
no posting after the time makes you filter bad trades,
look at usdjpy 4H chart using fxdd timezone, price broke 21 on 3/18 and then tested back 21 and then broke up again today on the 8:00 bar to close @99.55 so according to what you say we should have bought it because it will most probably move to the 89, but it didn't and it is down now 70 pips ,
this is just one example, posting after the move the success trades isn't good because there also many other failed trades with the same rules which are not posted
***
Deal with it or just move on.
***

The EU might be finding support at the 89 for a move back up, lots of time left. I've had broker issues all morning, not too happy with any of it...
  • #13,051
  • Mar 20, 2008 1:32pm Mar 20, 2008 1:32pm
Roy:

The basis of the 89 is: If price is above the 89 = bullish, price below = bearish. When you say 'direction' do you mean the slope or the angle? There are times when the price can be above the 89 but below the 21. This is still a bullish area but it also may signal weakness. Take a look at the EU the last few weeks and see how the close was rarely below the 8, that was strong rhythm, very bullish. We then had a close below the 21, a few times, still bullish but things are getting weak. The direction of the 89 was still up (angled up) but things may have been slowing down with the close below the 21.

One thing to note: I think we are in a situation where the fundamentals have control of things right now. The US economy along with the commodity markets are pretty much in control right now. So, this can take precedence over any method that is traded right now.

Back to the rhythm, there are those times when the price is above the 89 and above the 8 but all the three lower moving averages can be withing 20, 30, 40 pips of each other. This is market congestion or a ranging area. By definition the rhythm strength is +2 but it's best to let the market break out of this area and then wait for another 'cleaner' entry.


Thanks Palmer,

One more question. Consider the following scenario. Price is above the 89 therefore it is bullish and +1. But price is below the 8ema which makes it a -1. So is the resulting rhythm strength = 0. Bullish rhythm strength of 0??

I apologize if this question may seem trivial and annoying. I'm trying to figure out where I may have missed something in the material.

Thanks again for your response.

roy
  • #13,052
  • Mar 20, 2008 1:36pm Mar 20, 2008 1:36pm
This is my first post on this forum , eventhaugh i am a member since over a year now.

I am trading since around 2 years , however i always felt short of confidence while pulling the trigger and i have missed many many good trades that were in front of me on the chart and were begging me to pull the trigger .

However since the day i discovered this thread , i can say , i am becoming more and more confident with myself , especially when i read the posts of many of you (especially the seniors) and find out that my analysis of the market is similar to yours.

I can say and without any hesitation that this thread is more valuable than any forex book in the market or any seminars , since it is a live continuous practical interactive learning ; and it is really a shame that some members criticize this thread in a negative way .

Hopefully in the future i will participate in posting in this thread .


nb: can someone explain to me why the 55 ema is not used in this system? because from my experience it serves as a support or resistence in many cases on both the 1h & 4h?
  • #13,053
  • Mar 20, 2008 1:54pm Mar 20, 2008 1:54pm
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English. The accompanying chart and the original mp3 are on page 870, post 13038.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel 4Hr Rhythm Cycle 20Mar2008.doc   13 KB | 838 downloads
  • #13,054
  • Edited 3:49pm Mar 20, 2008 2:17pm | Edited 3:49pm
there is a nice CT in usdcad.but stoploss is a little big
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,055
  • Edited 3:41pm Mar 20, 2008 3:02pm | Edited 3:41pm
I have done 2005,2007 and 2008 showing the rule that if price was in an up or downtrend that the price at the end of the run closed on the otherside of the 21ema, then pull back to it or to the otherside and then goes to the 89sma.
The circles indicates wrong deals. Now you decide for yourself if this rule works more than it fails. It is exactly the same rule people apply as to the price making lower high and lower low in an uptrend before a POSSIBLE trend change. No signal can work 100% but if it works 70% I can manage the other 30% and if I can cut my losses short on that I WILL make money.

If you get to the end of an trend and got burn by that rule not working out I ask you the question where were you when the trend was running. Werent you suppose to have benifited from the trend. I will use from the pips made in the trend to pay for my stop in this particular rule. It has proven itself not to be wrong more than twice. And please dont search for a place where it was wrong more than twice(because you will find it someplace)and say the rule does not work just according to that.

If you are still convinced this rule does not work then dont trade against the trend and you will miss this setup. As easy as that. If snakes bites you in the field, stop walking in the field. Is it really that hard to figure out. If other people are walking in the field and claim not to be bitten they most probably know the snakes.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf UsdJpy Trendchange Rule.pdf   594 KB | 1,983 downloads
File Type: zip UsdJpy Trendchange Rule.zip   688 KB | 1,425 downloads
  • #13,056
  • Mar 20, 2008 3:09pm Mar 20, 2008 3:09pm
Been a member of this thread since November and I can probably count on one hand the number of U/J trades Phil has made. Phil's rules are not absolutes on the MA's. Markets will do what ever the $$@#$ they want to. Just b/c a market breaks the 21 comes back/tests it, doesn't mean it HAS to go to the 89... These are expectations and guideline rules, just like the MACD is. All are secondary to Price Action (motion, rhythm and emotion). If you wish to have a mechanical system with set rules with an EA, you're probably in the wrong place. If you're looking for live post of real trades, you're definitely in the wrong place. Personally, I don't see the price action or motion/emotion that would have triggered a long on the U/J, so your point has ZERO meaning to anyone.

PS the only Price action I see this week on the 4HR on the U/J was on 3/17... But that was a very scary time (BearStearns/FMOC Sunday night)....

Quoting mike_dg
no posting after the time makes you filter bad trades,
look at usdjpy 4H chart using fxdd timezone, price broke 21 on 3/18 and then tested back 21 and then broke up again today on the 8:00 bar to close @99.55 so according to what you say we should have bought it because it will most probably move to the 89, but it didn't and it is down now 70 pips ,
this is just one example, posting after the move the success trades isn't good because there also many other failed trades with the same rules which are not posted
  • #13,057
  • Edited 5:00pm Mar 20, 2008 3:35pm | Edited 5:00pm
That tail down and the 2 spinners got me interested. The market is slow at the moment so I will monitor the trade. The 200sma will be my cutting losses short. Will go to BE after 20-25pips.
The EurUsd had a close below the 89 and a pullback to the 89 with a 1H red candle. That could mean further downside move. I will have that in mind as well when monitoring this trade. therefore I will not let this trade go below 200sma by more than 5pips.

MACD has given RB. Most of the noice is hopefully sorted out.

It is holiday as well so the volume will be thin. I wont take to much risk either. Get to BE as soon as possible.



Edit 1
Stoploss set to BE (22:38). 8Ema being tested. Might see some noice around that. Got a free ride with SL allready at BE.

Edit 2
Set 25Trailing stop and is starting to move with the price. (23:09)

Edit 3.
Breakout on 5min triangle/wedge. 365Ema on 4H the target as well as 1.9900. Will see how price reacts there.

Edit 4
Price got stuck. Volume very thin.People taken weekend I think. Closed position for +33pips

Edit 5
23:58 Price has retraced. Most probably people taken profit before the weekend willing to sell higher to get there orders filled. Only my opinion. Yet another correct decision to close the trade. The facts are in front of me therefor I will do this and that.

This was a LIVE trade if you noticed that. See chart on post 13061 to see the progress of the trade.
Phillip
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  • #13,058
  • Edited 3:55pm Mar 20, 2008 3:45pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting mike_dg
reading the market after the 89 had already been touched is so easy.
Hey you!
This is and was a very peaceful thread where people learn from eachother and discuss eachother until you showed up. If you wanted to learn this system, you would have approached it the right way. Don't waste your time trying figure how to give us all stress ecspecially Phillip. Why do you think other members of this thread are sticking with this system for such a long period and they all making pips after pips. They average 300-500 pips a month with this system. Palmer was up over 1000 pips just for one ride. He probably had other trades too. Why do you think they consitently make pips? Because they stick with the system. And you don't have to trust me, because I already know what kind of person you are, but this system definitley works for people who are willing to learn and more importantly for people who have positive mind!
  • #13,059
  • Mar 20, 2008 3:51pm Mar 20, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting OldDog
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English. The accompanying chart and the original mp3 are on page 870, post 13038.
Thanks a million. You will only reap pips and blessings for doing this including all the other doing the typing.
Phillip
  • #13,060
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:44pm Mar 20, 2008 4:44pm
The progress of the GbpUsd trade on a 5min chart
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