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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,641
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:44pm Jan 18, 2007 5:44pm
the pound /yen is @ a important level- 240 yen this may be the key deciding factor for the GBP/Dollar if it fails at this level it could keep pound dollar from making an advance
  • #2,642
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:49pm Jan 18, 2007 5:49pm
This may have already been brought up but the 100 fib expansion from previous days high and low was 9777 and todays high was 9777. Which the previous days high was 9707 and the average pip gain on a bull run from previous days high and days is 69 pips.The probability of it moving 70 pips are more from high to high is 41%.
Attached Image
  • #2,643
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:53pm Jan 18, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting 59fender
the pound /yen is @ a important level- 240 yen this may be the key deciding factor for the GBP/Dollar if it fails at this level it could keep pound dollar from making an advance
it won't seem like it a month from now when there's like ten million yen to the pound, but for now its a pretty important level
  • #2,644
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:55pm Jan 18, 2007 5:55pm
Quoting cesarnc
Another interesting thing - Leugim, help me out here:

Looking at the Daily chart, on Nov 24, Slow Stoch was entering the overbought area, while RSI was trending upwards at 70. The price closed at 9332 and soared another 500 pips (!!!) with just two days downwards. 4hr carried overbought RSI for days. Some Bull, wasn't it?

We have the same configuration starting right now. And we need only 100+ pips to see 9840s....
For me oscilators at these immense extremes are pretty useless, it really can go either way. However RSI isn't at that extreme on the dailys, currently it is up around 60, a key overbought area for downtrend, which can be signal of trend change or just continued ranging price action. Not saying 60 is the key level, but lets say 55-65(Draw horizontal lines at these levels and go back in time to see in downtrend or ranging action how this level respected - overbought). Also on 1/2/07 rsi hit near 62 level, 1/18/07 RSI @ around 60.5 level even with higher high and higher close so a turn down on 1/19/07 could very well signal a divergence at a key RSI level on the dailys and send us back down. Just one of many possibilities.

On the flip side the weeklys do not look as promising to the downside, at least not yet, and if supported by a daily close tomorrow above 9780, this window of time for a reversal in trend may be closing for some time.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,645
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:57pm Jan 18, 2007 5:57pm
Quoting goodthings
This may have already been brought up but the 100 fib expansion from previous days high and low was 9777 and todays high was 9777. Which the previous days high was 9707 and the average pip gain on a bull run from previous days high and days is 69 pips.The probability of it moving 70 pips are more from high to high is 41%.
could you print a4hr chart with fibs? thanks
  • #2,646
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:00pm Jan 18, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
Another interesting thing - Leugim, help me out here:

Looking at the Daily chart, on Nov 24, Slow Stoch was entering the overbought area, while RSI was trending upwards at 70. The price closed at 9332 and soared another 500 pips (!!!) with just two days downwards. 4hr carried overbought RSI for days. Some Bull, wasn't it?

We have the same configuration starting right now. And we need only 100+ pips to see 9840s....

Hi Cesar,

How's trading been mate? Things turning around for you? I wish you FX profit in the future. A simple indicator, which is far from foolproof, is the ADX. It's a good place to start to determine if oscillators are going to be a useful tool.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #2,647
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:03pm Jan 18, 2007 6:03pm
Fib expansions for the day 61.8 is .9794 and 100.0 is 9848 two pips higher then Dec. 1 of 9846 which that is the first time since Sept of 1992.
  • #2,648
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:06pm Jan 18, 2007 6:06pm
Hi guys! I want to talk with traders about cuurent GBPUSD
  • #2,649
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:09pm Jan 18, 2007 6:09pm
I buy forecasts and I'll post there too, because I buy intra day forecasts, ok?
  • #2,650
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:10pm Jan 18, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting goodthings
This may have already been brought up but the 100 fib expansion from previous days high and low was 9777 and todays high was 9777. Which the previous days high was 9707 and the average pip gain on a bull run from previous days high and days is 69 pips.The probability of it moving 70 pips are more from high to high is 41%.
Is this a historical probability or a mathematical one? Abnormal statistics should in my opinion be treated differently(have some kind of constant factored in for the force of gravity or something). Today someone told me, or perhaps yesterday, that chances of GBP coming back up was 14%. I didn't see it as such. Where some will base probability on daily range, others on some other method, which is really true.

Although on your factors, this % makes sense, as you are correct x out of y days, the same conditions may not be relevant today and perhaps you could find other conditions that would have let you know 80% of the time the 14% of the time that you would be wrong. I'm not trying to criticize and I do it myself sometimes too, but in this tricky game, it is important not to look at any one thing too blindly, as there are many forces in play that affect outcomes. Reliance on any one statistic is a very dangerous practice in the long term(LTCM).
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,651
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:11pm Jan 18, 2007 6:11pm
Fib expansion 4hrs
Attached Image
  • #2,652
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:13pm Jan 18, 2007 6:13pm
01.18.2007 for Friday 19 ((ET) GMT-5)
(super intraday)
- 03:30 a.m. - 09:00 a.m.(01.19.2007) - buy +++
"+++" - pluses - means without trade-risk.
---------------------------------------------------
(intraday)
- Up trend
- buy zone 1.9743-1.9687
- stop 1.9647
- target 1.9810
---------------------------------------------------
5 days trade - 30.00 wmz
expiration date: 01.24.2007 (mm.dd.yy)
---------------------------------------------------
IDT online_group
Regards

(c) IntradayDreamTrading.com All Rights Reserved
  • #2,653
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:14pm Jan 18, 2007 6:14pm
Quoting LindaKellins
Hi guys! I want to talk with traders about cuurent GBPUSD
Why not talk about past and future, current is too easy and difficult at the same time.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,654
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:15pm Jan 18, 2007 6:15pm
For me statistics don't replace price action only give an idea of probability. I will take them to another thread.

Quoting Leugimp
Is this a historical probability or a mathematical one? Abnormal statistics should in my opinion be treated differently(have some kind of constant factored in for the force of gravity or something). Today someone told me, or perhaps yesterday, that chances of GBP coming back up was 14%. I didn't see it as such. Where some will base probability on daily range, others on some other method, which is really true.

Although on your factors, this % makes sense, as you are correct x out of y days, the same conditions may not be relevant today and perhaps you could find other conditions that would have let you know 80% of the time the 14% of the time that you would be wrong. I'm not trying to criticize and I do it myself sometimes too, but in this tricky game, it is important not to look at any one thing too blindly, as there are many forces in play that affect outcomes. Reliance on any one statistic is a very dangerous practice in the long term(LTCM).
  • #2,655
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:17pm Jan 18, 2007 6:17pm
Still learning, Pickens, but making better calls day-by-day . Hope you're doing fine with Yen as well...

Leugimp, thanks for the input. RSI may be in a decisive area (60) to reverse. What I mean is, the overall daily look is not denying further up AND is looking like Nov when another 500 pips were made out of overbought indicators... So 9800s is not that far away. All other charts showing room for upward move.

Now I´m just loving this 9730-9740 season... The longer the better
  • #2,656
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:22pm Jan 18, 2007 6:22pm
Quoting LindaKellins
01.18.2007 for Friday 19 ((ET) GMT-5)
(super intraday)
- 03:30 a.m. - 09:00 a.m.(01.19.2007) - buy +++
"+++" - pluses - means without trade-risk.
---------------------------------------------------
(intraday)
- Up trend
- buy zone 1.9743-1.9687
- stop 1.9647
- target 1.9810
---------------------------------------------------
5 days trade - 30.00 wmz
expiration date: 01.24.2007 (mm.dd.yy)
---------------------------------------------------
IDT online_group
Regards

(c) IntradayDreamTrading.com All Rights Reserved
Just curious but why oh why would you put a stop right above yesterdays spike down? Why not a stop at 1.9625/30? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
  • #2,657
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:35pm Jan 18, 2007 6:35pm
Quoting goodthings
Fib expansion 4hrs
Quite often it's best to step back and take a look at the big picture, but often a shallow narrow minded view can be most effective! thanks for the chart
  • #2,658
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:41pm Jan 18, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
Just curious but why oh why would you put a stop right above yesterdays spike down? Why not a stop at 1.9625/30? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
01.18.2007 for Friday 19 ((ET) GMT-5)
(super intraday)
- 03:30 a.m. - 09:00 a.m.(01.19.2007) - buy +++
"+++" - pluses - means without trade-risk.
---------------------------------------------------
(intraday)
- Up trend
- buy zone 1.9743-1.9687
- stop 1.9647
- target 1.9810
---------------------------------------------------
5 days trade - 30.00 wmz
expiration date: 01.24.2007 (mm.dd.yy)
---------------------------------------------------
IDT online_group
Regards

(c) IntradayDreamTrading.com All Rights Reserved


That forecast not mine, it's IDT's forecast, I buy their forecast.
  • #2,659
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:42pm Jan 18, 2007 6:42pm
Quoting goodthings
Fib expansion 4hrs
I'm sure it not technically correct but I would ignore the spike and bring the fib line down to the close of the next lower candle just a thought
  • #2,660
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:47pm Jan 18, 2007 6:47pm
For the records: "Linda" in Portuguese means "Beautiful".

Gonna grab a nap here until FRA / LON open...

Cya
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