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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,001
  • Edited 9:39am Mar 19, 2008 9:06am | Edited 9:39am
i put an order on usdchf
edit:it missed my order with 4 pips, this is 3'rd order missing today for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,002
  • Edited 10:14am Mar 19, 2008 9:55am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting 4newbie
....just combinated with 5min strategy, moced SL to 65 then entered with second lot and now got total closed 1st entery +30 pips second +20.............
I said that comment for your chart (you have so many oscillators on it) but don't mind.
  • #13,003
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:13am Mar 19, 2008 10:13am
Quoting luckytiger
I wanted to post my reply early but I was busy. I took that trade on the E/U because on the 11th of March I was looking at a similar trade but then I didn't take it because it scared me the huge red candle and now when I saw the same thing I took it. On my chart the price closed above the 21EMA just like on the 11th March. The same thing happened on the U/J on 11th of March and now. To me it look like similar setups. I have attached the chart.
As for the rule most of the time is the market rythm and emotion that determine you to take or not take a TC.
This is just my opinion and I am quite new to this system.
I understand what you say. A TC is a continuation of a previous trend, so some of the setups will look the same. Sjoei never looked at it that way. Thanx for the direction.
  • #13,004
  • Edited 11:41am Mar 19, 2008 10:31am | Edited 11:41am
I missed the GbpUsd zerobreak 04:00 candle but 89 was to close

MACD TC/Zero Bounce short signal. Price went up and test the top TL finding resistance then came down with TC signal
Entry1.5701
SL 1.5738
TP 1.5623 and if it runs then bott TL Will take 50% after 25pips

Edit 1
50% closes after +25pips. SL to BE

Edit 2
Moved stoploss to 1.5650 when price neared 1.5600 level.

Edit 3
1.5600 level seems to be strong support. Remainder closed out at 1.5650

Total gain 25+51=76/2 +38pips
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  • #13,005
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:32am Mar 19, 2008 10:32am
Hello, here is the written copy for March 18th Daily wrap up, please refer to post #12953 for mp3 & charts, thankyou.
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File Type: doc daily wrap up March 18th 2008.doc   7 KB | 466 downloads
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,006
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:55am Mar 19, 2008 10:55am
Info
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 19 March2008.zip   822 KB | 932 downloads
  • #13,007
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:58am Mar 19, 2008 10:58am
Quoting Palmer
luckytiger:

You will see from the past charts that when the rhythm is strong and if something has happened in the past and the same set-up is happening now, the result has a good chance of being the same. This is all contingent upon the rhythm being 'there'. I've taken a lot of 1hr trades based on the 4hr rhythm with the 1hr being in a channel, support/resistance area and the same thing happened over and over because of the 4hr rhythm. It's key to pick up on this like you have mentioned.

EU looks 'tricky' right now, might have a re-test below the 21....
Thank you very much for your reply. It all makes sense especially since I am in the process of learning. Before I read this thread I had no idea about the market rhythm. For the moment I only use the 4 hour. When I feel I know it I will look at 1 hour (I looked at 1 hour a few times but it confused me and I prefer to wait the 4 hour candle before entering a trade).
  • #13,008
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:27am Mar 19, 2008 11:27am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I missed the GbpUsd zerobreak 04:00 candle but 89 was to close

MACD TC/Zero Bounce short signal. Price went up and test the top TL finding resistance then came down with TC signal
Entry1.5701
SL 1.5738
TP 1.5623 and if it runs then bott TL Will take 50% after 25pips

Edit 1
50% closes after +25pips. SL to BE
Hello Phillip, nice trade on the euro. I have a question please, i see on your chart that price had closed just above the 21, were you concerned that price might find support here, because i have skipped trades before bec of that reason which is price closing just above a moving average.Today on my chart it closed above the 21.

But if i look at the entire motion and set up i can see that there were more signs indicating a short move raher than supposrt and move up. such as price forming a 3rd lower high
price going back above the 21 but failing ot make a higher high,. the move was perfect according to the rules except that i wait for the candle to close below the 21 which is the next candle. But that closed right on a trend line,.I understand the candle emotion is too obvious to favor a short move,.
Then i waited for a retrace since that is a 100 pips candle.

i am not triying to look for reasons not to trade but weighing every possibility before pulling the trigger.i am passing on this trade because now it is too late to enter but would like to hear from you. i would appreciate a reply . i hope you understand my question, thankyou.

nadia.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,009
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:36am Mar 19, 2008 11:36am
Quoting BIL2205
Hello Phillip, nice trade on the euro. I have a question please, i see on your chart that price had closed just above the 21, were you concerned that price might find support here, because i have skipped trades before bec of that reason which is price closing just above a moving average.Today on my chart it closed above the 21.

But if i look at the entire motion and set up i can see that there were more signs indicating a short move raher than supposrt and move up. such as price forming a 3rd lower high
price going back above the 21 but failing ot make a higher high,. the move was perfect according to the rules except that i wait for the candle to close below the 21 which is the next candle. But that closed right on a trend line,.I understand the candle emotion is too obvious to favor a short move,.
Then i waited for a retrace since that is a 100 pips candle.

i am not triying to look for reasons not to trade but weighing every possibility before pulling the trigger.i am passing on this trade because now it is too late to enter but would like to hear from you. i would appreciate a reply . i hope you understand my question, thankyou.

nadia.
That tail and the fact that the news of a rate cut indicated a down move more than an upmove. The odds was more in my favour to go short then long and the fact that the tail tested previous support trendline. That was my reasons. In an uptrend with no real news it is good to wait for the price to close below 21 unless their is strong emotion(candle and patterns) that show possible direction. Then take the odds on.
Phillip
  • #13,010
  • Mar 19, 2008 12:04pm Mar 19, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
That tail and the fact that the news of a rate cut indicated a down move more than an upmove. The odds was more in my favour to go short then long and the fact that the tail tested previous support trendline. That was my reasons. In an uptrend with no real news it is good to wait for the price to close below 21 unless their is strong emotion(candle and patterns) that show possible direction. Then take the odds on.
Phillip
Thankyou,
That is what i thought it was about as well, Weighing the odds and if they favour a certain direction more than the other then take it on,. Thanks again for answer.
Naida.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,011
  • Edited 2:51pm Mar 19, 2008 12:20pm | Edited 2:51pm
sold eurchf base on h1
edit:BE after 20pips
edit:BE stoploss hitted
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  • #13,012
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:21pm Mar 19, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting BIL2205
Thankyou,
That is what i thought it was about as well, Weighing the odds and if they favour a certain direction more than the other then take it on,. Thanks again for answer.
Naida.
Looks like three little sisters. I wonder will we have a pull to the 21 or it will go straight to the 89. I personally wait for a pullback.
  • #13,013
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:31pm Mar 19, 2008 1:31pm
Took G/U short today, based on the close below 89 and MACD TC, but was closed at breakeven by the tail (look at the 1 hour chart). Maybe should have re-entered, but didn't want to chase the market.
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  • #13,014
  • Edited 2:13pm Mar 19, 2008 1:58pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting ira
Looks like three little sisters. I wonder will we have a pull to the 21 or it will go straight to the 89. I personally wait for a pullback.

I normally trade a breakout of the 3sisters on shorter timeframes but decided to do it on 4H. Here is the trade I did after the 3sisters was formed and the motion and movement was confirmed on shorter timeframe. The 4H setup made me go to shorter timeframe to time my entry.

Entered 1.5619.
SL 1.5640
TP 1.5570

Allready 25pips closed and remainder on BE.
Remainder on 25trailing stop

Remainder closed at 1.5707

Total gain 25+12=37/2 = +18,5pips

This was a quick move down before the 20:00 candle close.
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  • #13,015
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:04pm Mar 19, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting ira
Took G/U short today, based on the close below 89 and MACD TC, but was closed at breakeven by the tail (look at the 1 hour chart). Maybe should have re-entered, but didn't want to chase the market.
You made the right trade. Stop just could have been above 89 but it would have been to much. The pullback to the 89 and that tail on the 1H was the reentry. But to chase the market I dont like either. But see this as a positive trade.
Phillip
  • #13,016
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:32pm Mar 19, 2008 2:32pm
Our rule says-
1) After the price crosses the 89sma it tends to pull back to the 21ema before it carry on its direction if it is a trend direction change.

2) Otherwise it tend to test the 89sma again and then it runs over and across the 89sma till it finds direction

3) And then it pulls back to the 21ema before proceeding on its path.

Looking at this gbp/usd chart, it looks like it has full filled the conditions 1 and 2. Now are we expecting the condition 3 to be happend?

I know this has been discussed over and over, but this is the most important part of the system and we need to understand very clearly.

Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd319.gif Size: 26 KB
Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #13,017
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:43pm Mar 19, 2008 2:43pm
I made the right choices today but trailed my stops to close to the price action to really give it a chance to mature and got closed out only for few pips. I havent had much time to trade lately and wanted to pocket some pips.

It is in times like these when it goes that one must hjave guts to let the profits run. I am still in the habit of taking profits early due to the fact that I cannot watch my trades live. Even the trade I just did off the 3sisters I managed as if I was not live. Will have to work on that. Just show what habbits or a certain way of trade can get stuck.
  • #13,018
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:56pm Mar 19, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting rc2008
Our rule says-
1) After the price crosses the 89sma it tends to pull back to the 21ema before it carry on its direction if it is a trend direction change.

2) Otherwise it tend to test the 89sma again and then it runs over and across the 89sma till it finds direction

3) And then it pulls back to the 21ema before proceeding on its path.

Looking at this gbp/usd chart, it looks like it has full filled the conditions 1 and 2. Now are we expecting the condition 3 to be happend?

I know this has been discussed over and over, but this is the most important part of the system and we need to understand very clearly.

Thanks.
Lets wait for the pair to show what it is doing. Look at No1 and No2 what has happened in the past on a similar situation. The price can bounce right up from the 200 to the 89/21 or it can go through the 200 and pull back and then continue. It can sit on the 200 for some time before making a move. If you have missed the down move be carefull not to jump in to take the possible move back up. Wait for the pair to show and confirm that it is safe to enter.
Attached Image
  • #13,019
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:05pm Mar 19, 2008 3:05pm
Ira,

Nice chart. There was a support resistance line around 1.9950. That's probably why the market bounced higher there. That 1hr pb (1400) was a great entry on break below that s/r line.... Maybe we'll get a another shot, well see what happens at the 200, may pause and give us a TC....



Quoting ira
Took G/U short today, based on the close below 89 and MACD TC, but was closed at breakeven by the tail (look at the 1 hour chart). Maybe should have re-entered, but didn't want to chase the market.
  • #13,020
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:07pm Mar 19, 2008 3:07pm
Written copy of 3/19/07 Daily Wrap up
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily Wrapup 19March Written Copy.doc   24 KB | 559 downloads
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