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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,621
  • Mar 11, 2008 7:26pm Mar 11, 2008 7:26pm
Betterave (or anyone else),

I prefer to trade daily signals. I have been using the Oz system, and I would like to start using the Fozzy system as well.

My question, is this a valid long trade on the USDJPY today?
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  • #2,622
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:10am Mar 12, 2008 5:10am
Hi,

Fugly

Yes, I think I need to clarify my 3375 pips gain for 2007.
I am opening two positions on one pair (for different exit methods) – as far as I know many of you do the same.
The 3% risk I am counting for both of them. So theoretically the risk on one position is 1,5% (of course I need to add this risks because the correlation is 1).
The pips (3375) I am counting for each position (1,5% risk). So the truth is that I have made around 1687 pips (3375 / 2) risking 3% per trade. This is 140 pips per month. I started trading in march 2007 so it was actually around 160 pips per month (with 3% risk).

My goal is around 60 pips per month with 3% risk (or 125 points with 1,5% risk). This will give me around 30% return on a capital for a year. If you are systematic and patient the 30% return year after year means fortune – we all know the magic of compounded interest. I think that 30% rate of return is realistic and it would be great if I will achieve my goal (but to be honest I am hoping for more J).

Regarding the % return for 2007. I was trading from March till November on my initial Forex account and at the end of November I added to it (doubled the initial sum). Till November I was around 30-40% in green on my initial account. After adding to the account I increased my position size in December and I had some great winners. The return for 2007 would be over 100% as to my initial account or around 40-50% as to my doubled account. It depends on the method of calculation. I think that 40-50% is more reliable (significant winners at the end of a year).

I am advocate of DFozzy method but still I think that THIS IS HARD METHOD to trade (at least with my MM configuration). The drawdawns are really painful.
My numbers for 2007 looks promising but so far in the current year it was not that colorful for me. I had some bad trades and I am still below my starting capital for 2008 (I have lost some of my earned pips but I didn’t touch my capital).

Aboutusnow

Yes I took that signal yesterday in the evening (I am in a GMT zone) and also took USD/CHF, and EUR/USD (re-entered). BUT it was really hard decision for me (I was really close to not taking them). I hate taking positions after such a long candles. I think this is one of the toughest elements of DFozzy method. The risk is really big after these long candles. I am still trying to find out how to handle with them.

Good luck to all.

P.s. Yesterday in the evening I was sure that next morning I will be hugely in red or my transactions will be already closed, despite that I took those signals (this is stupidity or discipline – you name it). Next itme.
  • #2,623
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:57am Mar 12, 2008 7:57am
Yesterday most of the pairs gave daily fozzy signals, however, not many of them were successful, since these signals were coming after big moves.

For example, I took the euro short fozzy cross, very confident that it should drop due to 1. Fed Policies, 2. 3 big indecision candles on daily which signal bearish sentiment. And today when I woke up, I saw that I was stopped out and Euro was trading back to its highs. Now this is really frustrating and annoying.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #2,624
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:28am Mar 12, 2008 9:28am
I see what you mean..

After a couple of months I picked up currency trading again yesterday and I traded EUR/USD (short) and Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf long.
These trades were all stopped out this morning.
  • #2,625
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:55am Mar 12, 2008 9:55am
Quoting gagiul
Yesterday most of the pairs gave daily fozzy signals, however, not many of them were successful, since these signals were coming after big moves.

For example, I took the euro short fozzy cross, very confident that it should drop due to 1. Fed Policies, 2. 3 big indecision candles on daily which signal bearish sentiment. And today when I woke up, I saw that I was stopped out and Euro was trading back to its highs. Now this is really frustrating and annoying.
These are very good reasons to keep an eye on the 4 hour chart (if possible) and not rely solely on the Daily. When the RSI is below the MA on the Daily, we should be looking for a "Buy" signal on the 4 hour chart that corresponds to an imminent cross on the Daily.
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  • #2,626
  • Mar 13, 2008 8:11am Mar 13, 2008 8:11am
Thanks BB.
I think this is very good advice. Once more I’ve returned to your 4H Fozzy Method Thread (I have read it before) and I agree that the solution for “long candles” may lie somewhere in getting earlier into trades.
Unfortunately (or fortunately J) I have a full time job and switching to 4H candles is rather impossible for me.
Short digression: My plan is to not resign from my fulltime job until my monthly earnings from Forex will be on a regular basis twice as big as my salary (which is not that bad J ). This is my economical way of thinking J.

What I am considering now is putting BUY/SELL STOP orders few ticks above/below the recent HI/LO (at the end of a day) when the signal on dailies is forming (very close to cross). In recent situation (USD/CHF, USD/JPY) this would prevent me from getting into trades too late (there was a large reversal move next day so with my exit methods these trades would not be much profitable but at least they would be BE trades instead of loosing trades - and this makes a huge difference J).
It is well known that in theory BUY/SELL STOP orders should be generally activated when our predictions regarding the direction of a move are confirmed. So, I am wondering if in some situations this B/S STOP order method could be even more advantageous then getting into moves on 4H basis. For example when at the beginning of the next they the move is going in the “wrong direction” (the B/S STOP order is not activated and we are not in a losing trade). Of course there might be some nasty situations when the B/S STOP order is activated and the trade is reversing and going anyway in the wrong direction. Generally we would be also later in the move than using 4H method.
I am not suggesting anything (everyone should have its own preferences). This is just my loud thinking…

Good luck to all.

p.s. I need to spend more time on this and I think I will forward test it (I prefer it much more than back testing).
  • #2,627
  • Mar 13, 2008 8:54am Mar 13, 2008 8:54am
Hi All,

I have recently been playing with several systems and developing my own daily system that has some similarities to the Fozzy daily. However I was looking at the daily system using the EURJPY as a model.

If you look to just take the trades as set out by Fozzy just when the 8MA/RSI cross occurs OUTSIDE the Bollinger bands you will end up with a very high probability trade. Unfortunately this occurs fairly infrequently, approximately 8 times a year. However it is a nice signal to have running in the background to give occasional pips. I have been looking to get at least 100 pips per trade with a fixed 85 pip SL

I am going to see how things look with other pairs but wondered if any else had noticed this.

Mister ED
  • #2,628
  • Mar 18, 2008 2:54pm Mar 18, 2008 2:54pm
Hello, I think the fozzy system is very effective. but I would just like to know if there is anyone with MT4 that has over 30+ pairs, and how I could get it? Your help would be greatly appreciated.

marcosean
  • #2,629
  • Mar 18, 2008 5:50pm Mar 18, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting marcosean
Hello, I think the fozzy system is very effective. but I would just like to know if there is anyone with MT4 that has over 30+ pairs, and how I could get it? Your help would be greatly appreciated.

marcosean
AleccohFx
  • #2,630
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:54am Mar 19, 2008 10:54am
Quoting BeachBum
AleccohFx
Thank you very much for your timely response, I will check it out now..
  • #2,631
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:03am Mar 19, 2008 11:03am
Quoting marcosean
Thank you very much for your timely response, I will check it out now..
this is exactly what I was looking for, thanks again. happy pipping!!
  • #2,632
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:03am Mar 19, 2008 11:03am
Quoting marcosean
Thank you very much for your timely response, I will check it out now..
You're welcome.......................
  • #2,633
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:16am Mar 19, 2008 11:16am
Quoting BeachBum
AleccohFx

Quoting marcosean
Thank you very much for your timely response, I will check it out now..
Not a good advice. Run away from that broker. All clients have their accounts freezed and can't withdraw...
  • #2,634
  • Mar 19, 2008 5:08pm Mar 19, 2008 5:08pm
Quoting Miguel
Not a good advice. Run away from that broker. All clients have their accounts freezed and can't withdraw...
I was NOT recommending this broker for trading, only as a useful source for MT data feed.
  • #2,635
  • Mar 19, 2008 5:31pm Mar 19, 2008 5:31pm
Quoting BeachBum
I was NOT recommending this broker for trading, only as a useful source for MT data feed.
Not good for that either. They had price manipulation on several accounts too.
  • #2,636
  • Mar 19, 2008 5:42pm Mar 19, 2008 5:42pm
Quoting Miguel
Not good for that either. They had price manipulation on several accounts too.
I am not interested in debating the pros and cons of this broker; but for the sake of discussion, this broker's feed is useful when trading Daily and 4 hour charts along with Fozzy-style trading. That is just my opinion as it relates to how I Fozzy trade..............
  • #2,637
  • Mar 22, 2008 11:54am Mar 22, 2008 11:54am
Hi,

Can anyone let me know the name of the Fozzy EA/Settings or others that have been produced for this system.

thanks in advance.

nightpipper.

Quoting BeachBum
I am not interested in debating the pros and cons of this broker; but for the sake of discussion, this broker's feed is useful when trading Daily and 4 hour charts along with Fozzy-style trading. That is just my opinion as it relates to how I Fozzy trade..............
  • #2,638
  • Mar 24, 2008 7:16am Mar 24, 2008 7:16am
I'm currently testing out the Fozzy indicator along with Spuds StochThreads...
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  • #2,639
  • Apr 9, 2008 3:24pm Apr 9, 2008 3:24pm
..
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  • #2,640
  • Apr 9, 2008 4:29pm Apr 9, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting ShadyChars
..
What ema's/sma's are you using on your chart?...
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