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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,601
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:48am Jan 18, 2007 11:48am
Oil price = $50.64 / Barrel

if oil price continue to downward ... will positive effect on usd ....
  • #2,602
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:48am Jan 18, 2007 11:48am
[quote=cesarnc;191018]Thoughts wbpsyn?

Hello Cesarnc, Sorry, I have been in and out of the office. Overnight the price ran 30 pips past our last resistance area of 1.9747 to 1.9749, but could not sustain that area. I'm sure there was a real conflux of orders in that area. The price fell back to just 10 pips below the 78.6% line of the 1.9749 to 1.9261 Fib on the 4 hour chart. The current relevant Fib is from 1.9777 to 1.9635 on the 15 or 30 min chart. The price has retraced back to the 61.8% area of that Fib. If you look to the left of this Fib along that 61.8% line you will see a line of what is now resistance. I apologize if this information is redundant, I have not had time to catch up on the last few pages.
  • #2,603
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:49am Jan 18, 2007 11:49am
Quoting cesarnc
What you guys thinking on this 9720 area? I'm long at it... But oozing confidence by the seconds....

Maybe 9770s has been the top, afterall...
I made a sell limit on 1.9765 T.P : 1.9710
  • #2,604
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:50am Jan 18, 2007 11:50am
look like is still going up till friday.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,605
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:56am Jan 18, 2007 11:56am
Quoting viking
Oil price = $50.64 / Barrel

if oil price continue to downward ... will positive effect on usd ....
; u mean if oil price down so its negative for GBP ? and oil price up is positive for GBP ? i dont think so.....

for me oil price down will positive to both(pair)
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,606
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:57am Jan 18, 2007 11:57am
[quote=cesarnc;191018]Thoughts wbpsyn?

Cesarnc, The 61.8% line of the 1.9777 to 1.9635 Fib is 1.9723. On the last post I forgot to mention, but just as a reminder from yesterday that the 78.6% line of the Daily Fib from 1.9846 to 1.9261 is 1.9721. This is just a 2 pip difference, but adds more weight to the resistance area.
  • #2,607
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:58am Jan 18, 2007 11:58am
Quoting notme32
; u mean if oil price down so its negative for GBP ? and oil price up is positive for GBP ? i dont think so.....

for me oil price down will positive to both(pair)
If oil price decreases, it's good for the dollar (USD)
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,608
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:01pm Jan 18, 2007 12:01pm
I´m on this fib, too. But I have a confusing set of indicators here. Today's top at 9777 is above last peaks, but below 9846 and yet a pin-bar in the 4hr.

And Daily chart stoch %K is reaching the overbought area, although its RSI peaks are downtrending...

But the refusal to sink on very USD-positive news points a new trial upwards....


[quote=wpbsyn;191095]
Quoting cesarnc
Thoughts wbpsyn?

Hello Cesarnc, Sorry, I have been in and out of the office. Overnight the price ran 30 pips past our last resistance area of 1.9747 to 1.9749, but could not sustain that area. I'm sure there was a real conflux of orders in that area. The price fell back to just 10 pips below the 78.6% line of the 1.9749 to 1.9261 Fib on the 4 hour chart. The current relevant Fib is from 1.9777 to 1.9635 on the 15 or 30 min chart. The price has retraced back to the 61.8% area of that Fib. If you look to the left of this Fib along that 61.8% line you will see a line of what is now resistance. I apologize if this information is redundant, I have not had time to catch up on the last few pages.
  • #2,609
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:04pm Jan 18, 2007 12:04pm
Quoting notme32
; u mean if oil price down so its negative for GBP ? and oil price up is positive for GBP ? i dont think so.....

for me oil price down will positive to both(pair)

Dear Friend,

In oil market USD is main currency
  • #2,610
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:08pm Jan 18, 2007 12:08pm
Oil dives towards 50 usd as US energy inventories swell UPDATE


Thu, Jan 18 2007, 17:30 GMT

Oil prices sank near 50 usd a day after hitting 20 month low points, as US inventory data showed a much larger than expected rise in crude stocks last week as well as an increase in fuel supplies.
At 4.58 pm in London, Brent North Sea crude contracts for March delivery plunged 1.49 usd to 51.29 usd a barrel, after hitting an intra-day low earlier of 50.91 - nearing yesterday's 20 month low of 50.75 usd.
Meanwhile, New York light sweet crude contracts for February delivery sank 1.91 usd to 50.33 usd a barrel, after diving down to 50.05 usd earlier - surpassing yesterday's 20 month low of 50.28 usd.
US government data released earlier showed crude stocks rose by a much larger than expected 6.8 mln barrels last week, while distillates, which include heating oil, rose by 0.9 mln barrels last week, slightly below market forecasts.
The data also showed a larger than forecast rise of 3.5 mln barrels in gasoline stocks, while pointing to a counter-seasonal 3.6 pct decline in demand for distillates over the past 4 weeks.
"Obviously it was very a bearish inventory report," said Fimat analyst John Kilduff.
He noted the data showed yet another strong rise in crude oil imports - which have helped keep overall stockpiles at above average levels - saying the data has worked to further the case for even lower prices.
"This inventory (data) is exactly the catalyst we thought it might be in terms of renewing the bearish sentiment and obviating supply fears about the upcoming driving season," he said.
Oil prices plummeted yesterday after key OPEC member Saudi Arabia said there was no reason to fret over the 18 pct dive in oil prices this year, but they later recovered as cold weather moved into the US Northeast.
"Yesterday's price action would seem to imply there is considerable psychological support at the 50 usd a barrel level, with (NY crude) prices falling to 50.28 usd before dramatically rebounding. However, it was not a question of if, but when, the market will test that mark," said Kilduff.
Although the latest US weather forecasts point to continued cold temperatures in the Northeast -- the world's largest heating oil region -- over the next two weeks, Kilduff said the cold snap was "too little, too late".
The past week aside, winter temperatures in the US have been extremely mild this year and this, in large part, is what has driven energy inventories higher and oil prices lower.
  • #2,611
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:09pm Jan 18, 2007 12:09pm
Quoting karmostaji
If oil price decreases, it's good for the dollar (USD)
sometimes i also agree with that. thanks karmostaji.
its ok...many ppl say that , maybe right, but i prefer watch Gold price than oil price ( because is about gbp/usd) . just opinion.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,612
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:13pm Jan 18, 2007 12:13pm
And also, take the news-candles out and this FIB never existed in the first place...

I don't know if this is a valid method, but the market clearly skipped the news in my opinion...

Thus, we may be seeing 9722 playing support here
  • #2,613
  • Edited 12:27pm Jan 18, 2007 12:16pm | Edited 12:27pm
A doji forming on the daily chart maybe?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,614
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:21pm Jan 18, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting cesarnc
And also, take the news-candles out and this FIB never existed in the first place...

I don't know if this is a valid method, but the market clearly skipped the news in my opinion...

Thus, we may be seeing 9722 playing support here
cesarnc..... will u consider price about testing 9840 tomorrow, did u have something in ur chart that point to. just ask for other opinion because i like too see it happend.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,615
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:38pm Jan 18, 2007 12:38pm
so just came along (also) to ask a question hope thats ok and there wont be more perhaps stupid questions...
i have a "small" problem i`m in short 1.9606 just believing it gets there and deeper again perhaps next week but here it comes i`m long 1.9705 now what should i do wait till tommorow or close one (the long--)

thanks kind regards Pedjolino
  • #2,616
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:43pm Jan 18, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting notme32
cesarnc..... will u consider price about testing 9840 tomorrow, did u have something in ur chart that point to. just ask for other opinion because i like too see it happend.
Hi notme32,

This bouncing surrounding the news messed with my charts, what may lead to wrong interpretations... For instance, this doji forming on today's candle (daily) would never be a doji wasn't the news skip. Same on the 4hr's.

1hr-and-less' indicators are showing a valley by the news time that would never take place either...

That plus the refusal to sink on USD-news smells "bull still in the vicinities".

Well, my position now is 1 lot long at 9724, SL at 9680 (this is for safety only, I may revise it until Asia open). TP at 9770, also to be revisited afterwards...

As long as the market stays above 9689 with consistency, I´m long

If we're seeing 98XX? I have nooooo idea...
  • #2,617
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:54pm Jan 18, 2007 12:54pm
THANKS for answering

Pedjolino
  • #2,618
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:57pm Jan 18, 2007 12:57pm
This picture talks for my sentiment here...

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...l_dec_19_2.jpg
  • #2,619
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:58pm Jan 18, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting Pedolino
so just came along (also) to ask a question hope thats ok and there wont be more perhaps stupid questions...
i have a "small" problem i`m in short 1.9606 just believing it gets there and deeper again perhaps next week but here it comes i`m long 1.9705 now what should i do wait till tommorow or close one (the long--)

thanks kind regards Pedjolino
In doubt, stay out.
  • #2,620
  • Jan 18, 2007 1:12pm Jan 18, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
Hi notme32,

This bouncing surrounding the news messed with my charts, what may lead to wrong interpretations... For instance, this doji forming on today's candle (daily) would never be a doji wasn't the news skip. Same on the 4hr's.

1hr-and-less' indicators are showing a valley by the news time that would never take place either...

That plus the refusal to sink on USD-news smells "bull still in the vicinities".

Well, my position now is 1 lot long at 9724, SL at 9680 (this is for safety only, I may revise it until Asia open). TP at 9770, also to be revisited afterwards...

As long as the market stays above 9689 with consistency, I´m long

If we're seeing 98XX? I have nooooo idea...


Cesarnc, I can understand your sentiment but I would encourage you to stay with the charts as they are. The only exception would be data errors.
Secondly, we have an Inverted Head and Shoulders, visible on the 15 or 30 minute chart. If it is valid, the calculated target for this IHS, would be 1.9831. It is questionable if the pattern will complete as we are entering the afternoon hours. No buy, sell or hold recommendations.
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