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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #9,601
  • Mar 18, 2008 2:39pm Mar 18, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting raczekfx
trailing stop was hit and trade reversed to short @ 1.5750...
We've just got a daily PB break few min ago...
...in too.

A couple of little trend lines and MAs to hop over, then I'm adding.

Some easy trades there the past little while. Aaaaaaalways nice to see.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #9,602
  • Mar 18, 2008 2:49pm Mar 18, 2008 2:49pm
I'm also in the eurusd short.
I would appreciate some input on the usd/chf setup. Looks like a great PB setup to me; I was a little leery of the gap, but other feeds didn't have it, so I went ahead and jumped in. What do the experts say?

Tyler
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skype: ststroud. let's talk trading.
  • #9,603
  • Mar 18, 2008 2:53pm Mar 18, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting bundyraider
...in too.

A couple of little trend lines and MAs to hop over, then I'm adding.

Some easy trades there the past little while. Aaaaaaalways nice to see.
what can i say.....
  • #9,604
  • Mar 18, 2008 2:55pm Mar 18, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting tyler812
I'm also in the eurusd short.
I would appreciate some input on the usd/chf setup. Looks like a great PB setup to me; I was a little leery of the gap, but other feeds didn't have it, so I went ahead and jumped in. What do the experts say?

Tyler
i am not an expert....but..........
  • #9,605
  • Mar 18, 2008 3:10pm Mar 18, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting bundyraider
...in too.

A couple of little trend lines and MAs to hop over, then I'm adding.

Some easy trades there the past little while. Aaaaaaalways nice to see.
Yes, indeed... (yen was just awesome...)

I wanted to manually pull the trigger at 1.5780, few min after feds took the stage, but decided to let market show me direction instead..
  • #9,606
  • Mar 18, 2008 3:22pm Mar 18, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting raczekfx
Yes, indeed...

I wanted to manually pull the trigger at 1.5780, few min after feds took the stage, but decided to let market show me direction instead..
I could lie and say the same thing, ....but the truth is, I was asleep.

Woke up about half an hour after the announcement. ....aaaand the rest is history. LOL

That's how I trade the news anyway..... I don't. I just wait to see if it creates a setup. Usually does!
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #9,607
  • Mar 18, 2008 5:43pm Mar 18, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting tyler812
I'm also in the eurusd short.
I would appreciate some input on the usd/chf setup. Looks like a great PB setup to me; I was a little leery of the gap, but other feeds didn't have it, so I went ahead and jumped in. What do the experts say?

Tyler
its not looking like a real pinbar but you got yourself some nice pips anyhow
;-)

the gap looks cool though, they often get filled....

experts??
  • #9,608
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:36am Mar 19, 2008 3:36am
Hi, all,

Shorted this one @ 1.5680.God i'ts been an up and down day with this one thinking of calling a day That euro just don't want to budge pin bar or not.
  • #9,609
  • Mar 19, 2008 6:53am Mar 19, 2008 6:53am
Quoting Siam
Hi, all,

Shorted this one @ 1.5680.God i'ts been an up and down day with this one thinking of calling a day That euro just don't want to budge pin bar or not.
If you sell short on the break of the pin bar and put your stop above it, you expose yourself to a large amount of risk.

You can cut your risk and increase your profit by waiting for the high probability turning points.

Below is an example of confluence:

Daily pin bar triggered last night. Market falls and then rebounds.

On 1hr you have a descending TL that the market rallies into.
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  • #9,610
  • Mar 19, 2008 6:54am Mar 19, 2008 6:54am
An ascending TL connecting the highs intersects with our rising TL.
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  • #9,611
  • Mar 19, 2008 6:56am Mar 19, 2008 6:56am
This TL intersection occurs at the 61 fib retracement from the swing high.

As the market rallies into this point, a trader could sell it short with a stop above the previous swing high.

This CUTS your risk and INCREASES your reward if the daily pin bar triggers.
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  • #9,612
  • Mar 19, 2008 9:18am Mar 19, 2008 9:18am
Watch the aussie if this support breaks..
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  • #9,613
  • Mar 19, 2008 9:34am Mar 19, 2008 9:34am
mmmmmm, & then
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  • #9,614
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:33am Mar 19, 2008 11:33am
another one....
with pressure on commodities.. it just had to give up..
(few lines ... and dozens of indicators...)
oook, back to my cave ...
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  • #9,615
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:39am Mar 19, 2008 11:39am
Quoting the_wizard
If you sell short on the break of the pin bar and put your stop above it, you expose yourself to a large amount of risk.

You can cut your risk and increase your profit by waiting for the high probability turning points.
.
I know what you are trying to get at wiz, but you never expose yourself to large amounts of risk if you are properly position sized.

You expose yourself to the same risk if your stop is 10 pips or 1000 pips if you used a fixed % risk. 1% per trade, is 1% per trade.

So you aren't exposing yourself to more risk, you are simply taking on a smaller position size if you place your stop above the pinbar. Likewise if you can decrease your stop you are increasing your position size, but your risk is still the same.

Just thought I would clarify it b/c the new traders associate stop size with too much risk, because they do not position size right. If you do not have the flexibility in position size(then you need to find a different broker, or not have the constraints put on you, IE by your prop firm lol)

Have a good one

Mike
  • #9,616
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:24pm Mar 19, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting fibbinarchi
Have to comment:

I see both sides here.

Maybe wizard means when you are trading with a fixed amount per trade (10 Lots etc ) and if you get in a trade on the retrace, you would have entered at a less risky level in the terms of avaliable future Reward profit and a smaller stop, so you get a better Risk to Reward ratio, and not forgetting that the market has retested a level, accepted that level, and the trend has now changed. Gann entered on a pullback.

As far as trading based on % of your trading account, i couldn't agree more.
Like I said if you are trading a fixed amount per trade, then you are really putting yourself at a disadvantage. Because then you have to adjust your trading to match your fixed amount. Instead of adjusting your position size based on your stop.

That is like people who see a daily pinbar that has a 200 pt stop, enter on the break, but close the trade if it goes -50 pts on them because they don't want to lose more then 50 pts. When in reality you just adjust your position size to your stop size.

It is a whole different topic of looking for a smaller stop size to increase your position size. But it should never be the other way around that you decrease your stop because you can't adjust your position size. With the granularity out there now especially

A lot of what wiz is probably posting has to do with trading at a prop desk. Where they don't allow him to position size up. That is just not the reality for us retail traders, which is what 99.9999% of the people who read this thread are.


Take care and trade safe

Mike
  • #9,617
  • Edited 2:14pm Mar 19, 2008 1:56pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting fibbinarchi
Yes, couldn't agree more, like I said in previous post Mike.

Different styles of trading for different people, as long as the risk is controlled along with a good % accuracy rate trading set up, then alls well. I understand you are here to back James' Trading method, but there are other successful trading methods too which use fixed trading entry levels successfully, don't forget that once the trade is executed there's nothing to stop the trader from scaling in and out, taking partial profits at certain levels etc.
I am not here backing anything but smart Money Mgmt lol

I trade different then James, and everyone inside the Private forum will tell you that. But the idea that you are taking on too much risk based on where your stop is, just isn't true. And a different successful trading method wouldn't be looking at it that way either. Risk is still risk, no matter what your method is. If you want to have a larger stop well then you need to reduce your position size. I don't see any other argument. If you don't ever want to reduce your position size, well then your "system" has constraints on it and now you must trade within those constraints.

Taking partial profits scaling in and out is all fine, I really think you are running off on tangents now as this isn't what the point was. I have a system that has fixed s/l and tp levels. So I understand aspects of different style.

But the most common error I see and receive messages about is. How can I trade that weekly pinbar my stop will be 400 pts. So let's get the right info out there for those that are not familiar with position sizing and MM. If you understand your risk then that is a different story, but based on the amount of emails I get, it is a common problem(understanding position size that is)



Mike
  • #9,618
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:20pm Mar 19, 2008 2:20pm
now the way I actually reduce my risk or exposure once I am in a trade is to trail my stops.

So for example on the euro pinbar, since this is a counter trend trade, I will move my stops quicker then normal.

So my risk for the trade was 1.5% and my original stop was above the pinbar. After todays close I will move my stop as per the picture, which now cuts down my risk. This is how I always exit. I always trail my stops in order to cut my losses and ride my winners. With the trend, I try to ride winners more and against the trend, I am less lenient

There are 1000 ways to skin a cat, as well as trade. Just find what is most comfortable for you as a trader.

Mike
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  • #9,619
  • Edited 4:36pm Mar 19, 2008 2:39pm | Edited 4:36pm
Hi Mike and Fibbinarchi,

Here at my prop firm we deal with risk by having a fixed amount per day at which you have to stop trading. This is great because it not only defines your risk but stops you revenge trading. For the people that are given live accounts in the initial stages they let you trade until you have lost £400. Once you have lost that then you cannot trade again for the rest of the day. That way you can do 1 lot in the EUR/USD and hold it approximately 65 ticks or you can do 10 lots and hold it just 6 ticks before you are finished for the day. It is up to each trader and their style of trading.

So I agree with Mike, forget about ticks - that does not measure your risk at all - what matters is how much money you will lose if you get the trade wrong.

However, since the aim of the game is to make money, it makes sense to try and up your size and cut your risk.

If I see a pin bar with 65 ticks risk from low to high, I know I can only do 1 lot. But I soon figured it would be a better idea to enter the pin bar at the exact same point that J16 would say (on a break of the high/low) but set my stop tighter.

So if you see a great pin bar you can fine tune an entry point - one I particularly like is where the pin bar forms and then the right eye lines up with the left eye to the tick before triggering the pin bar. I take it with a stop above the eyes.

That way my risk is lower if I stick to a 1 lot AND my potential reward is higher.

Also, if I really believe in the pin bar - let's assume it is at a key level and I really feel there will be a good reaction, then I can increase my size because my stop is smaller but still have the same risk as Mike has explained using fixed percentage sizing.

I hope that clears things up
  • #9,620
  • Mar 19, 2008 5:09pm Mar 19, 2008 5:09pm
Hello everybody!

I have been following this thread for quite some time and now decided to participate. Let me just say THANK YOU to all of you who are taking your time to help us here!

Quote
So for example on the euro pinbar, since this is a counter trend trade, I will move my stops quicker then normal.
So my risk for the trade was 1.5% and my original stop was above the pinbar. After todays close I will move my stop as per the picture, which now cuts down my risk. This is how I always exit. I always trail my stops in order to cut my losses and ride my winners.

I prefer this method of trailing stops too. My question is: If a PB on Daily is activated (as in this €$ case) you trail your SL on high/low of the daily bars. What if you entered on activation of weekly PB, would you still trail your SL on daily high/lows ?
Would there be an exception when you would use H4's H/L as stops?
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