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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,961
  • Mar 18, 2008 9:22am Mar 18, 2008 9:22am
Quoting Jaco V Nel
I think a good setup is forming on the 1 HR & 4 HR EU charts with the lower highs for a move back to 21 and even 89. I am short at 65. Any words of guideance.
Hi Jaco, --As time gets closer to the FOMC announcement, it's difficult to trade because price action can become erratic as some people enter trades based on how they feel the market is going to react to the announcement, while others are exiting trades to avoid possible spikes during that time. Also, price action can sometimes slow to a standstill and leave you trapped in your trade, fearful that those same spikes are going to take your stop out, even if you are ultimately right. --Tony
  • #12,962
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:08am Mar 18, 2008 10:08am
Quoting OldDog
Hi Jaco, --As time gets closer to the FOMC announcement, it's difficult to trade because price action can become erratic as some people enter trades based on how they feel the market is going to react to the announcement, while others are exiting trades to avoid possible spikes during that time. Also, price action can sometimes slow to a standstill and leave you trapped in your trade, fearful that those same spikes are going to take your stop out, even if you are ultimately right. --Tony
Thanx for advice, always learning. I Always try to force someting that is not on. Rather to wait for price action to find its rythm. Either TC or breakout to 21 or 89
  • #12,963
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:22am Mar 18, 2008 10:22am
Hello, Phillip and other friends

I think I have the same chart timeframe as the second one you included in today's wrapup. The problem is the MACD indcator, as it marked by circle, the MACD signal of the first bullish candle is not green. The verison of my MACD is MACDcoloredv102. Is that out of date?

Thanks a lot!
Macalmd
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  • #12,964
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:23pm Mar 18, 2008 12:23pm
Macalmd,
I have the same thing on my chart. The MACD indicator is correct different feeds are going to be slightly different and 1 or 2 pips could mean the difference between red or green. Don't feel bad the same thing happened to me. I saw the trade coming and thought that it would be a good time to enter then I waited to confirm it with the MACD signal and by the time my chart gave a signal the move was already gone and I got stopped out. I need to trust my instincts more.
  • #12,965
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:25pm Mar 18, 2008 12:25pm
My Chart
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  • #12,966
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:26pm Mar 18, 2008 12:26pm
EU at the 21 buuuuut how low will it go???? Watching....
  • #12,967
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:31pm Mar 18, 2008 12:31pm
I guess most everyone was expecting the US Fed to cut interest rates a full point, but instead they only cut .75.

Interesting.
  • #12,968
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:47pm Mar 18, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting macalmd
Hello, Phillip and other friends

I think I have the same chart timeframe as the second one you included in today's wrapup. The problem is the MACD indcator, as it marked by circle, the MACD signal of the first bullish candle is not green. The verison of my MACD is MACDcoloredv102. Is that out of date?

Thanks a lot!
Macalmd
I use IBFX charts also and mine differ from yours because of a short 20:00 candle on 3-14. I wonder what that's about, something to do with the price feed I suppose. Anyway it caused the last swing up on my MACD to have 4 bars and yours has 3 which caused the difference. I don't know why my chart has the extra candle there.
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  • #12,969
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:49pm Mar 18, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting Palmer
EU at the 21 buuuuut how low will it go???? Watching....
It has not been there for a while.
Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #12,970
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:56pm Mar 18, 2008 12:56pm
I could not trade tonight. Only came back now. I would have taken the GbpUsd due to that Tail.
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  • #12,971
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:01pm Mar 18, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting vette1974
Macalmd,
I have the same thing on my chart. The MACD indicator is correct different feeds are going to be slightly different and 1 or 2 pips could mean the difference between red or green. Don't feel bad the same thing happened to me. I saw the trade coming and thought that it would be a good time to enter then I waited to confirm it with the MACD signal and by the time my chart gave a signal the move was already gone and I got stopped out. I need to trust my instincts more.
Thanks for the reply. Your are right that we should pay more attention to the price motion instead of replying solely on the MACD signal.
All the best!
Macalmd
  • #12,972
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:11pm Mar 18, 2008 1:11pm
I'm just thinking out loud here...

There are times when the fundamentals take precedence over whatever trading method you use. We're in a unique situation right now with the markets and I think that needs to be kept in perspective. What I mean in this case is, just because we have a close below the 21 doesn't necessarily mean the price will return and then head south again, it may just keep falling. Or, if it does return to the 21 it may not continue south and instead it might move on up again. All rules are pretty much secondary to what the global economy is doing withe US pairs so just keep that in mind.

At least that's what my humble opinion is thinking and 'doing' right now...just watching.
  • #12,973
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:21pm Mar 18, 2008 1:21pm
Palmer,
What was the final tally on the Euro trade? Or are you still in it?
  • #12,974
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:22pm Mar 18, 2008 1:22pm
Quoting Palmer
I'm just thinking out loud here...

There are times when the fundamentals take precedence over whatever trading method you use. We're in a unique situation right now with the markets and I think that needs to be kept in perspective. What I mean in this case is, just because we have a close below the 21 doesn't necessarily mean the price will return and then head south again, it may just keep falling. Or, if it does return to the 21 it may not continue south and instead it might move on up again. All rules are pretty much secondary to what the global economy is doing withe US pairs so just keep that in mind.

At least that's what my humble opinion is thinking and 'doing' right now...just watching.
Exactly as you said it. If you get into a trade and have to go and sleep you must sleep with one eye open watching. It can do whatever it wants to now. The GbpUsd to me was the one that showed 89sma was the target.
  • #12,975
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:50pm Mar 18, 2008 1:50pm
Current SL is at 5520, just below the mid channel line...about 100 pips south.
  • #12,976
  • Mar 18, 2008 7:38pm Mar 18, 2008 7:38pm
I'm learning more and more thanks to the support group here. I really appreciate all of the helpful posts and the general attitude of this forum is very positive. Not that you haven't heard this before, Phillip and Palmer, but a special thanks to you. I've got a lot of work ahead of me, but I'm looking forwards to it.
Right now the GBPUSD looks like it is in ventricular fibrillations and I don't have any paddles. So good night and thanks again to all
Raymond
  • #12,977
  • Edited 9:30pm Mar 18, 2008 9:09pm | Edited 9:30pm
To me the GBP is a bit unclear so I will wait for clarity.

Here is what I am looking for on EUR - I am anticipating Phillip's thur 21 pullback to 21 then move away rule.

If price action does not behave or do exactly what I want - I won't play. If 1H bar close above 1.5745 I will no longer look to short and will wait for clarity.

dhalsim - yes on my previous post I use 3 pips below the 62% fib (short fib) of the minor swing as SL.
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  • #12,978
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:49pm Mar 18, 2008 10:49pm
Quoting maxster
To me the GBP is a bit unclear so I will wait for clarity.

Here is what I am looking for on EUR - I am anticipating Phillip's thur 21 pullback to 21 then move away rule.

If price action does not behave or do exactly what I want - I won't play. If 1H bar close above 1.5745 I will no longer look to short and will wait for clarity.

dhalsim - yes on my previous post I use 3 pips below the 62% fib (short fib) of the minor swing as SL.
thanks maxster,
it seems that we analysis the market in the same way
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Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #12,979
  • Edited 11:16pm Mar 18, 2008 11:06pm | Edited 11:16pm
Could some instruct me as to how to copy a screen printout onto a post like a lot of members on this thread have done.

Thanks
  • #12,980
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:19pm Mar 18, 2008 11:19pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Hope you took this one

A. 1 Profit already in at 20 pips for 4 minilots
B. Have Set stoploss to 10 below entry for 6 minilots lots with 2 Prof(4 minilots) set at 1.2945


Just want to add that the rule says that when the price goes through the 89SMA it tends to pull back to the 21EMA before proceeding the trend. We have a situation now where the price went down through the 89SMA and has pulled back to the 21 EMA. Be aware of that. I have set my stoploss at 1.2905(10 below entry) to combat the move should the price comes down. The MACD will show me when the trend is continued below the 89SMA and then I will enter short.

I just have a feeling that we are going to see a test of the 89SMA.


Update:
Just closed other 4minilots at 1.2945 and set stop on other 2minilots at 1.2940
Update:
Closed other 2minilots at 1.2960
Update:
Total for the day was .4lots @ 20 pips, .4lots @ 30 pips and .2lots @ 45 pips for a total of 29 pips on a full lot
perfect job Philip, the own thing i haven't understand yet, was where to place my stop loss, thank you very much mate, all good to you
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