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  • #2,801
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:00am Mar 18, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Tulkas
Hey Folks,

When price retraces before dropping, which high should you use?!

Thanks,
Steve
If you are pulling your Intraday fib then you want the Highest High of the day. If you are drawing a swing fib, you can pull it from which ever one you want to measure at the time. I hope that makes sense.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,802
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:32am Mar 18, 2008 10:32am
Tulkas.
I would draw the fib from the first high to the first swing low point which happened just before the first retracement. from there I see price moved up through the DZ without opening an up candle. from there it plunged down in a strong move whithout taking a breath to the 100% retrace. I would enter there and look for the long move to continue to T1 and maybe even T2.
after that strong move down I would expect a retrace, which it did. I wouldn't move my fib until the next swing low (see the next chart). I don't think it's a good idea to move a fib until there has been a good swing (at least 40 to 50 points).
I hope this helps. I know it helps me to verbalize concepts when I can.
Mike
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  • #2,803
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:41am Mar 18, 2008 10:41am
This would be the way I would have the fibs on this chart. Hope this helps.
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Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,804
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:52am Mar 18, 2008 10:52am
Quoting galaxymom
This would be the way I would have the fibs on this chart. Hope this helps.
Thanks Mom and Mike! Ya'll are "dicing" the chart up a little more than I'm used to... will have to study it some...
TULKAS
  • #2,805
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:42pm Mar 18, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting galaxymom
Here's how would have it set up, hope this helps.
Hi Mom,
How did you pull the black intraday fib here? I would have thought to include some of fridays data back up to around 1.5775?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1205806103


And on the first image on this page?
The white fib here
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1205724917

I would have again pulled that from a few candles behind and ahead. Was it 'walked' from another target? It fits great with the fib zones as skunny said to look for when placing fibs but neither high nor low appear to be major points of SR from anytime frame im looking at from 5m up?

Help please?
Thanks!
  • #2,806
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:54pm Mar 18, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting jicjoc
Hi Mom,
How did you pull the black intraday fib here? I would have thought to include some of fridays data back up to around 1.5775?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1205806103


And on the first image on this page?
The white fib here
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1205724917

I would have again pulled that from a few candles behind and ahead. Was it 'walked' from another target? It fits great with the fib zones as skunny said to look for when placing fibs but neither high nor low appear to be major points of SR from anytime frame im looking at from 5m up?

Help please?
Thanks!
I considered pulling it back further, but with the weekend, and such a large retracement of Sun, I chose to take the true high/low.

On the GJ chart that is a Skunny set up, not where Bo would pull a fib, and those charts are breach and brake examples.

Does that help?
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,807
  • Mar 18, 2008 6:46pm Mar 18, 2008 6:46pm
Thanks mom,
Breech and break eh? i guess im gonna have to dig a lil deeper into skunny's thread cause i didnt see that.
Breech of what exactly? there is a slight blue line across at that point but i cant see what SR it corresponds to?
Ive been struggling with skunnies method/thread for some time now and its not seeping in really. What i did get from it though was an appetite for lots of vhands which is enough in itself. Im coming to my own conclusions which i think is what he wanted. Or is it? lol
  • #2,808
  • Mar 18, 2008 6:49pm Mar 18, 2008 6:49pm
I dont usually trade this late but there could be a nice little 40 pip buy trade overnight
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  • #2,809
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:10pm Mar 18, 2008 11:10pm
Entrie=199.95
Stop=200.48
Limit=199.09



Let me know what you guys think...


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  • #2,810
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:44am Mar 19, 2008 2:44am
great trade man, nice pips
I would've drawn the fibs slightly different though. I cant understand how you pulled those one. lol - too early in the morning for me!
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  • #2,811
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:46am Mar 19, 2008 2:46am
Quoting jicjoc
I dont usually trade this late but there could be a nice little 40 pip buy trade overnight

T1 just taken out on this trade
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  • #2,812
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:39am Mar 19, 2008 3:39am
The question is now which fib to follow from yesterday?
The big up fib from yest morning?
Or the down fib from yest evening?
Does the 4hour make it any clearer?

Personally it looks like its going to go short again. Any ideas?
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  • #2,813
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:43am Mar 19, 2008 3:43am
Quoting jicjoc
The question is now which fib to follow from yesterday?
The big up fib from yest morning?
Or the down fib from yest evening?
Does the 4hour make it any clearer?

Personally it looks like its going to go short again. Any ideas?
Since the Intraday targets have not been met, you still look to it, you also can pull swing fibs on the smaller swings to see the direction.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,814
  • Mar 19, 2008 4:49am Mar 19, 2008 4:49am
Quoting galaxymom
Since the Intraday targets have not been met, you still look to it, you also can pull swing fibs on the smaller swings to see the direction.
Agreed mom, but there were two big moves yesterday, and they didnt overlap. It seemed like they directly conflicted there an hour ago.

Btw I only take fib trades 'with' the direction of the fib. So thats why the were conflicting for me.

It looks now like the red fib won out and is just now going to its T1, which is also mondays low. what odds on a big retrace back up around there? I dont have any rules to trade a retrace from a T1 though so i'll just have to wait for it to set up a fib for me to ride back up on.

Also need to be mindul that this isnt a genuine break low in which case the green fibs T1 could come into play and thats down at 19821.

Maybe another tactic thats happening here is that the price has spiked 14 pips down below 2.0, which would be a big resistance level for some traders. Maybe some bank pushed the price down these 14 pips as they know lots of traders set sell orders like 10 pips below these physchological levels. And this 14 pip spike take all those orders out, then a big retrace back up.

I think a big retrace back up is likely soon
  • #2,815
  • Mar 19, 2008 5:22am Mar 19, 2008 5:22am
Quoting jicjoc
Agreed mom, but there were two big moves yesterday, and they didnt overlap. It seemed like they directly conflicted there an hour ago.

Btw I only take fib trades 'with' the direction of the fib. So thats why the were conflicting for me.

It looks now like the red fib won out and is just now going to its T1, which is also mondays low. what odds on a big retrace back up around there? I dont have any rules to trade a retrace from a T1 though so i'll just have to wait for it to set up a fib for me to ride back up on.

Also need to be mindul that this isnt a genuine break low in which case the green fibs T1 could come into play and thats down at 19821.

Maybe another tactic thats happening here is that the price has spiked 14 pips down below 2.0, which would be a big resistance level for some traders. Maybe some bank pushed the price down these 14 pips as they know lots of traders set sell orders like 10 pips below these physchological levels. And this 14 pip spike take all those orders out, then a big retrace back up.

I think a big retrace back up is likely soon
We are really being hit with a lot of news, and some of that not planned these past few days, and possibly through the week. There maybe a lot of these crazy moves, and they will be hard to fib, at least that's what some people say, but if you take that long move from the low of Sunday to the High of today, which broke the Downtrend Pivot, then the move down in the NY session and you pull several swing fibs you could anticipate that price was going to go short. The retrace of that earlier short move was just Price pulling back for a whalloping punch though all support to get to the Intraday T1 and then some. It's hard to believe it can, much less will do that sometimes, lol. One thing you have to watch for is the fact that Price had been trying to break low and kept hitting support. The theory, and evidently the fact, is that Events only speed up the process of Price getting to where it is already headed. If you look you can see that the Up move during the Asian session was a retrace to the 61.8% of the Intraday, then it tried 5 times before it finally broke through the Intraday short, and on to TP. The more you watch Price action and get practice using swing fibs to guide you as you trade the Intraday fib, the easier it will be. Remeber to look for 50% retracements of fibs, and note how often price respects it, as in my blue swing fib which came 8 pips from hitting it's Pivot. Something else to watch for is that we had a lot of long wicks reaching short. It's not a 100% thing, but it's usually a good clue. Followed by the doji and cross and spinning tops, be alert to see who wins the battle.

You can expect some retrace, but things aren't reacting normally, be careful.

You will have your AHHA moments. Hope this helps.
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Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,816
  • Mar 19, 2008 6:29am Mar 19, 2008 6:29am
T1 hit, now reverse and hopefully it will give a fibable range for long entry
  • #2,817
  • Mar 19, 2008 12:01pm Mar 19, 2008 12:01pm
Today was a great day. 3 beautiful moves on gj.
1 small move on gu, one huge move.
Nice!
  • #2,818
  • Edited 5:40pm Mar 19, 2008 5:01pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting jicjoc
great trade man, nice pips
I would've drawn the fibs slightly different though. I cant understand how you pulled those one. lol - too early in the morning for me!

Thanks man....well i throw my fibbs a littel different and i have come up with a set of rules of how to place the fibbs...that i feel good with.

So if you whant let me know pm...and ill go in detail in how iam using them myself....

(THIS IS FOR EVERYONE IN THE THREAD)


I will place the trades i find and post before they happened..
LIke this everyone can help each other out and improve.

This can also help me improve...since iam still hav alot to learn
  • #2,819
  • Edited 5:47pm Mar 19, 2008 5:29pm | Edited 5:47pm
My current fibbs for eur/jpy

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Trade was missed...since i had position on on another trade...
  • #2,820
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:02pm Mar 19, 2008 7:02pm
There is a thread dedicated to trading Bo's fib style at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=71089

You might consider posting trades there so we don't clutter the thread.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
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