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  • #521
  • Edited 10:05am Feb 27, 2008 8:18am | Edited 10:05am
Hi haniam,

I discovered your thread a few days ago. I really appreciate the way you look at the markets and think people may find profitable trades from it. I would like to thank you for sharing your vision and ask you to please allow me to try to give a little contribution to your thread.

We (the small fish) are the real stars of this show. Where MUST the sharks (or big dogs) throw their bites on? Exactly on where we are clustered! The bankers' side traders know where the stops are. In this place there is plenty of food. So maybe there is the very best place to enter a trade. Just wait for the greatest heads cut off and decidedly jump in (in the opposite direction of course!).

We are the dead heroes of the market. Maybe through knowing this we can turn into living heroes... .
  • #522
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:28am Feb 27, 2008 10:28am
Quoting Jairo
Hi haniam,

I discovered your thread a few days ago. I really appreciate the way you look at the markets and think people may find profitable trades from it. I would like to thank you for sharing your vision and ask you to please allow me to try to give a little contribution to your thread.

We (the small fish) are the real stars of this show. Where MUST the sharks (or big dogs) throw their bites on? Exactly on where we are clustered! The bankers' side traders know where the stops are. In this place there is plenty of food. So maybe there is the very best place to enter a trade. Just wait for the greatest heads cut off and decidedly jump in (in the opposite direction of course!).

We are the dead heroes of the market. Maybe through knowing this we can turn into living heroes... .
Welcome Jairo to the thread.
Your contribution is appreciated. Don't hesitate to check on whenever you feel you want to.

I believe that most of us are bites for the sharks, and that the 'resistance' still living fishes would become heroes by helping other fishes to fight back.

This will take lot of time, but this may happen slowly, and this would definitely create a crack in the monopole wall of Big Dogs. FF and other related forums are doing great by creating this wonderful trader community.

We need to create a second pole that would 'protect' the fishes from being eaten alive.

Like the 'Linux' operating system that is threatening more and more MS Windows monopole, or the open office, or the new rising European Community that is replacing the falling US-Russia bi-pole. China-India would create a third pole in the coming decades.
  • #523
  • Mar 1, 2008 10:21am Mar 1, 2008 10:21am
Recession? 13 signs it’s here
by SaxoBank

Whether or not a full-scale recession is on the way is the question on everybody's lips in 2008. Saxo Bank's Head of Strategy, David Karsbøl, believes it is already upon us.
Taking 13 key indicators, David Karsbøl, one of MoneyWeek's top 10 tipsters of 2007, explains why 2008 looks certain to bring a recession to the economy.

1. Bank credit is drying up. Banks are becoming more reluctant to issue high-risk mortgages with stories on tighter lending terms now appearing on a regular basis. This is a follow on from the credit crunch, with banks now being more conservative in their lending and appraisal standards. They are tightening their lending policies and it is generally more difficult for homeowners to finance new homes.

2. The number of months of supply of US houses for sale is at 9-10 compared to 4-5 historically. This suggests that prices could continue lower by at least 10-15%, but probably more. This figure shows the estimated amount of time it would take to sell the number of houses currently on the market in the US. At the moment this is double what would normally be expected, something that reflects a significant downward pressure on prices. Added to this is the increase in people owing more on their homes than what they are worth - the number will increase further and more homes will be repossessed by lenders.

3. Household finances are maxed out. Financial obligations as a percentage of disposable income are at all-time highs. This means that income is not being entirely spent, but rather it is increasingly being used to pay back interest on already existing loans. The result of this is that even if rates are low, consumers may not be willing to borrow, hence the expected economic stimulation will not happen as they will have no where to turn to with the new money. There are no new asset bubbles to replace the housing market and so there is no obvious destination for leveraged investments among the general population.

4. US M1 Money Supply Growth Year-on-Year has been below zero since mid-2006. This means that credit creation has apparently stopped or part of it has stopped which is a negative sign after a sustained period of strong money supply growth.

5. The Unemployment Rate has stopped dropping in the US. The figure is now at 4.9% compared to 4.5% at the end of 2006. This is what we believe usually happens when the housing market has topped we feel that the unemployment rate could go as high as 8% over the next two years, which is one indication of a recession to come.

6. S&P500 Earnings Growth Year-on-Year is now negative (-8%) after seeing double-digit growth every single month since 2002. Growth premium in stocks should be smaller now than previously, which is an indication that both businesses and consumers are scaling down on consumption.

7. Eurozone Retail Sales Year-on-Year at the beginning of February was -2%. This figure is the lowest in the measures history, i.e. since 1996. This is an obvious sign of economic slowdown and is further reflected in the poor Consumer confidence figures, of which more later.

8. US Chain Store Sales growth is dropping significantly. The 13-week average is approaching all-time lows. This is a key economic marker and these disappointing figures point squarely at a slowdown.

9. ISM Non-Manufacturing in the US released at the start of February showed a massive contraction. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report is an important economic indicator as it shows the purchasing levels of the US service economy. Clearly when these figures contract, we are looking at a negative outlook for the service sector - another clear sign of recession.

10. UK Consumer Confidence is at the worst level in the measures history, i.e. since 2004. This shows that already consumers are feeling the pain and are not too upbeat about the future of the economy.

11. US ABC Consumer Confidence at -33, the lowest since the early 1990's (the last housing recession). The significance of these points (10 &11) is quite apparent. That they should be so severe historically adds extra gravitas to their importance as an indication of impending recession or slowdown.

12. US Annualized GDP growth for Q4 was out at 0.6%. Although this is not yet negative, we are not far off seeing a contraction. What makes this figure so significant is the drop of over 4% from the Q3 figure, which suggests that the trend is heading towards a negative. Two consecutive months below zero, and we officially have ourselves a recession.

13. The US yield curve has been massively inverted until the spring of 2007 (spread between 3 month rates have been higher than 10 year rates). This is an indication that the fixed income traders believe the Fed has been tightening monetary policy too much, thereby suffocating the recovery and that ultimately both rates and inflation will have to move lower.
  • #524
  • Edited 11:24pm Mar 1, 2008 11:20pm | Edited 11:24pm
These are my trading plans for the week ahead:

  1. Long-Term: Definitely the EU is heading north, With all the speakings about recession. BUT I think, as the daily chart shows (two daily spikes), the bulls need to slow down to the weekly/monthly pivot to push the price again. I think the weekly pivot has a better chance to be the support.
  2. Short-Term: I'm hedging BUT not at a same level, as shown in the picture. BUT at the break of the trend line I will sell too using the AMM strategy. If the price breaks the high of the triangle I will close my sells and I will NOT close my buys (I've hedged). My sell target is the Strong support area.

Dear Haniam, any comments are highly appreciated.

Best Regards,

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Short-term Plan.jpg Size: 131 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Long-term Plan.jpg Size: 133 KB
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #525
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:58am Mar 2, 2008 2:58am
Quoting khanderoo
These are my trading plans for the week ahead:

  1. Long-Term: Definitely the EU is heading north, With all the speakings about recession. BUT I think, as the daily chart shows (two daily spikes), the bulls need to slow down to the weekly/monthly pivot to push the price again. I think the weekly pivot has a better chance to be the support.
  2. Short-Term: I'm hedging BUT not at a same level, as shown in the picture. BUT at the break of the trend line I will sell too using the AMM strategy. If the price breaks the high of the triangle I will close my sells and I will NOT close my buys (I've hedged). My sell target is the Strong support area.

Dear Haniam, any comments are highly appreciated.

Best Regards,

Hi Khanderoo,

Nice simple charts there and plans. Like you, I think we have a retracement coming up soon before the continuation of the uptrend. As per my method, I only trade with the main trend. I am now waiting for a dip to buy at 5000. Looking at your charts, I am happy with my analysis to wait for that level. If 5000 fails to hold, then I am looking to buy from 4850. It's good that we are adopting the good habit of having a trading plan before we enter a trade.

Let's see what Haniam has to say. I always look forward to Haniam's analysis and thinking!

Happy Trading !
Bakuli
  • #526
  • Mar 2, 2008 5:25am Mar 2, 2008 5:25am
Quoting haniam
The longs in the support area gave a good move to 1.4885 were we closed and reversed our positions, applying AMM-N and getting an additional 85 pips.

Prices broke overnight the all time highs, setting a new record and closing above 1.4970, which gives the bulls a big advantage.

Scenario 2 is now not any more under our attention.

We have now a range breakout, that would be confirmed by a close today over 1.5xx level. Then we can expect a 500 pips target.

A new factor is in play for the EU pair: The interest rate that has turned from negative to positive when longing it. It is becoming more and more interesting to buy and hold for investors, and this interest will increase in March with a new rate cut, putting more and more pressure on the USD.

Oil breaking 100 level is supporting bulls. The coming weeks will be critcial for the USD to determine a possible bigger recession in the US economy. Watch Bernanke speech today.

For our Level 3 position trades, we are looking to buy a retrace to 1.4890-1.4930 targeting 1.5060, 1.5230, 1.54xx with a SL under 1.4680

Attachment
With the break of 1.5xxx new 'millennium level', the up way to 1.6xxx is now opened. The new factor I introduced previously is a main factor that is favoring a buy and hold behavior.

Things are being bad for the US economy and what used to be the 1rst economy will lose more and more of its strength.

Bernanke speech showed once more that he prefers a weak dollar, and unless we see a cut in the EU interest rates, not likely soon, the dollar main strong direction will be to the high, and we will be buying all retraces unless EU manages to break 1.4790, a level that will make us change positions.
  • #527
  • Mar 2, 2008 5:58am Mar 2, 2008 5:58am
Quoting khanderoo
These are my trading plans for the week ahead:

  1. Long-Term: Definitely the EU is heading north, With all the speakings about recession. BUT I think, as the daily chart shows (two daily spikes), the bulls need to slow down to the weekly/monthly pivot to push the price again. I think the weekly pivot has a better chance to be the support.
  2. Short-Term: I'm hedging BUT not at a same level, as shown in the picture. BUT at the break of the trend line I will sell too using the AMM strategy. If the price breaks the high of the triangle I will close my sells and I will NOT close my buys (I've hedged). My sell target is the Strong support area.

Dear Haniam, any comments are highly appreciated.

Best Regards,

Hedging is fine to be into a position when a breakout happens after a ranging period, letting us close a position and let the other run to the maximum profit.

But use it carefully if combined with AMM, as AMM will let you open a high number of positions (Dozens or more) and maintaining them with the hedge is quiet a story.

Your trendline is good, and if it is not broken, it will give a support to long on a break of 1.5240 targeting 1.5420 area then I would apply here AMM with 40 pips area to sell.

Selling the trendline break may be done but wait first for the down move retracement to be confirmed by a break of 1.5140 targeting 1.5075, 1.5020 and 1.4970 while being always prepared to close and reverse on a bounce of these levels.

Putting the stop loss (which is in fact a buy to close an opened position) at the 50% retracement is not the best place, as at this region we may find an opportunity to buy more than to sell.

Remember that 1.4790-1.4860 was the last resistance area that, once broken, has given way for a very quick break of 1.5xxx level. So now it became a strong support area that will give way for massive buys if reached. I would prefer to put the SL under 1.4790 and even under 1.4750, sacrificing some of my position's size to meet my MM requirements. This applies for long term position trades that will be targeting 1.54xx and higher.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080302-EU-H4-AM.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #528
  • Edited Mar 3, 2008 1:12am Mar 2, 2008 11:53pm | Edited Mar 3, 2008 1:12am
Dear Haniam,

As always thanks for your hints. As you said putting long-term S/L around 1.4740~50 is a better idea.


For Hedging:

I read in this forum that, FXtitan, has developed a strategy to use hedge without S/L for losses and only T/P for profits. He didn't told anybody what it is, BUT gave some clues!
His main points are:

  1. Cut your profits & let your losses run!!
  2. Use the compound effect to manage your losses to a 20%~30% of your equity, by adding to the winning side according to a predefined plan.

I thought, for EU with this strong long-term trend, we could make one like this by:

  1. Execute trades according to his main points.
  2. Our main trades should be to only BUY in dips.
  3. We should protect ourselves by SELLING only when the market is going against us, with some predefined targets.
  4. With this method we could accelerate our growth to the maximum margin available & full speed using compound effect.
  5. For sure, we should execute trades with strict money management.
  6. LETS THINK OUT OF THE BOX!

I think if we put some time & effort for this, we could have a valuable strategy. For us, small fishes, I think there is a way to NOT be bitten anymore.

Also I have found some very psychological informant thought for traders. Kindly check the attachment. I hope you will enjoy it!

Looking for your valuable thoughts,
Regards,

PS: Dear Lee, you are also welcomed to join the discussion.
Just to note that: Sold@ 1.5236 as per plan & exited 80% at first support (M15 trend line) @ 1.5214 will enter again on H4 bounce of trend line break.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf CTA_Trading_Psychology.pdf   108 KB | 613 downloads
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #529
  • Mar 4, 2008 5:05am Mar 4, 2008 5:05am
Attached Fileshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gifCTA_Trading_Psychology.pdf

Excellent reading! The best I have ever seen about trading psychology. Direct to the important points. Written by a person that really understands the market. I have read other relatively good psychological stuff before. When referring to trading, these use to talk BS... Not the case here.
  • #530
  • Mar 9, 2008 12:40pm Mar 9, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting haniam
Hedging is fine to be into a position when a breakout happens after a ranging period, letting us close a position and let the other run to the maximum profit.

But use it carefully if combined with AMM, as AMM will let you open a high number of positions (Dozens or more) and maintaining them with the hedge is quiet a story.

Your trendline is good, and if it is not broken, it will give a support to long on a break of 1.5240 targeting 1.5420 area then I would apply here AMM with 40 pips area to sell.

Selling the trendline break may be done but wait first for the down move retracement to be confirmed by a break of 1.5140 targeting 1.5075, 1.5020 and 1.4970 while being always prepared to close and reverse on a bounce of these levels.

Putting the stop loss (which is in fact a buy to close an opened position) at the 50% retracement is not the best place, as at this region we may find an opportunity to buy more than to sell.

Remember that 1.4790-1.4860 was the last resistance area that, once broken, has given way for a very quick break of 1.5xxx level. So now it became a strong support area that will give way for massive buys if reached. I would prefer to put the SL under 1.4790 and even under 1.4750, sacrificing some of my position's size to meet my MM requirements. This applies for long term position trades that will be targeting 1.54xx and higher.

Attachment
I would like to thank all the persons that e-mailed me inquiring on my late post delays. Managing all the accounts I am handling is taking most of my time and posting annotated charts is time consuming.

Since the major basic big points of my 'trading philosophy' has already been posted on this thread, I will be less active during the trading days, but will always be willing to answer inquiries and questions if any.

Last week was great harvesting tons of pips as per the plan. EU did not break 1.5140 for a short, and going long on 1.5240 break gave 180-200 pips per lot.

The expected target was fully reached at 1.5420 and applying AMM with 40 pips area gave tremendous return. Remember that when using AMM, stops should always be outside the open position area by a ratio of 1.5 (Here 60 pips). Calculate your trade size based on this data.

We may apply AMM-S to buy if prices reaches 1.5145-1.5170 with 25 pips area. Illustrating on the following chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080307-EU-M30-AM-AMM.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #531
  • Edited 3:04pm Mar 9, 2008 3:01pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting khanderoo
Dear Haniam,

As always thanks for your hints. As you said putting long-term S/L around 1.4740~50 is a better idea.


For Hedging:

I read in this forum that, FXtitan, has developed a strategy to use hedge without S/L for losses and only T/P for profits. He didn't told anybody what it is, BUT gave some clues!
His main points are:

  1. Cut your profits & let your losses run!!
  2. Use the compound effect to manage your losses to a 20%~30% of your equity, by adding to the winning side according to a predefined plan.

I thought, for EU with this strong long-term trend, we could make one like this by:

  1. Execute trades according to his main points.
  2. Our main trades should be to only BUY in dips.
  3. We should protect ourselves by SELLING only when the market is going against us, with some predefined targets.
  4. With this method we could accelerate our growth to the maximum margin available & full speed using compound effect.
  5. For sure, we should execute trades with strict money management.
  6. LETS THINK OUT OF THE BOX!

I think if we put some time & effort for this, we could have a valuable strategy. For us, small fishes, I think there is a way to NOT be bitten anymore.

Also I have found some very psychological informant thought for traders. Kindly check the attachment. I hope you will enjoy it!

Looking for your valuable thoughts,
Regards,

PS: Dear Lee, you are also welcomed to join the discussion.
Just to note that: Sold@ 1.5236 as per plan & exited 80% at first support (M15 trend line) @ 1.5214 will enter again on H4 bounce of trend line break.

I noticed lot of misunderstanding of hedging and its purpose on the forum and I thought that beginning with some definition and basic knowledge and discussion about it would be helpful.

First, let's clarify this: Buying and selling the same currency is definitely not hedging. It's practically the same as closing your position while paying a double spread. An important discussion started about this 'Big Dog' misleading capabilities on some brokers platforms can be found in 'whats with this "hedging" thing??.' thread started by Merlin. A must absolute read.

FX titan thread mentioned by khanderoo can be found here. Interesting to read, but can lead to a costy experience if you don't know exactly what you are doing. And still, this is not hedging.

Bear in mind that having two opposite positions for the same currency, as buying one on dips as a long term trade while selling some others on rallies for short term quick profits is not hedging.

Another thread related to this is Steviet's Live Trades! It is still not hedging, but buying/selling a pair for long term while selling it when it is going against you.

So what is hedging? I will not invent the wheel.
You may read some good information about this:
A Beginner's Guide To Hedging
Hedge (finance)

Thank you khanderoo for bringing this subject to discussion, and avoiding lot of misconception about hedging.
  • #532
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:54am Mar 12, 2008 8:54am
Beware BD in play!
If you son't know what you are doing stay aside.
Stop orders are being hunted.
Possible break of 1.55xx

Safe trading
  • #533
  • Mar 15, 2008 6:02am Mar 15, 2008 6:02am
Dear Haniam,
Nowadays the E/$ pair is in very high levels. What I am looking for is, as a trend trader, for what FUNDAMENTAL reasons should we look at SO that we should be able to determine the continuation of the trend. Kindly specify your reasons in detail.


Thanks for your help & support.
Best Regards,
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #534
  • Mar 15, 2008 11:50am Mar 15, 2008 11:50am
Quoting khanderoo
Dear Haniam,
Nowadays the E/$ pair is in very high levels. What I am looking for is, as a trend trader, for what FUNDAMENTAL reasons should we look at SO that we should be able to determine the continuation of the trend. Kindly specify your reasons in detail.


Thanks for your help & support.
Best Regards,
Check Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien free report:
Five Key Factors that Move the Forex Markets

I think EU will not reverse soon.

Watch interest rate price reaction on march 18 to determine the next few days move.

Only a strong central bank intervention may reverse the strong up move.

But remember,
1- Bernanke does not care about a weak dollar.
2- Trichet does not like excessive volatility, but is 'just' watching for now.

As of technical view, it is continuously making new all time high record in this no man's land region and the only important resistance will be in the 1.59xx region.

We will probably see some resistance in the 1.57xx region, and it may eventually retrace, but traders will profit to buy on dips.

Regards,

Hani
  • #535
  • Mar 15, 2008 12:30pm Mar 15, 2008 12:30pm
Hello haniam

Your journal is great and much appreciated, please keep posting when you have time.

- Peke5
  • #536
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:28am Mar 16, 2008 5:28am
haniam i am not posting in this period 'couse i am very busy with school but i continue to follow you and ....i have to say, thank you! You are doing a great and useful work..

have a nice time...and "safe trading"

  • #537
  • Mar 17, 2008 11:28am Mar 17, 2008 11:28am
Quoting Peke5
Hello haniam

Your journal is great and much appreciated, please keep posting when you have time.

- Peke5
Welcome Peke5 to the thread.
Glad you can profit from the content.

Feel free to ask any question you want to develop.

Regards,

Hani
  • #538
  • Mar 17, 2008 12:23pm Mar 17, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting john15689
haniam i am not posting in this period 'couse i am very busy with school but i continue to follow you and ....i have to say, thank you! You are doing a great and useful work..

have a nice time...and "safe trading"

Hi John,

Are you a Sstudent or a teacher?
Now that Easter is here, I suppose you'll have more time to trade.

A safe trading is really what all traders should do. We do have excessive volatility, and R/S are not yet really defined with EU in this no man's land region.

I am expecting a soon break of 1.6 if we do not see an intervention of Central banks.

So, safe trading to all!

Regards,

Hani
  • #539
  • Mar 17, 2008 12:42pm Mar 17, 2008 12:42pm
Tomorrow is a very volatile day, mainly during interest time release and its following statement. Try to stay aside or trade very small amount.

Did you notice the 75 pips M1 candle we witnessed in the EU in less than few seconds? We may witness same and more tomorrow. Lot of speculation to expect...

So trade safely and be very cautious.

Regards,

Hani

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080317-EU-M1-75 pips.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #540
  • Mar 18, 2008 3:05am Mar 18, 2008 3:05am
Today is a very volatile day and you should be very careful as a small error will cost a lot. Do not overtrade big risk. I suggest you use even 1/2 or 1/4 of your usual risk.

For EU, we have a major support at 1.5680, and a fair resistance @1.5815.
The pressure is UP unless 1.5680 is broken.

So a good plan may be to:
1- Buy around 1.5725 eventually using AMM-S with 40 pips area.

a- If the platform allows opening positions in the opposite side, sell the break of 1.5680 with same amount of already opened position using AMM-S in opposite way but with 30 pips area. This would be equivalent to close and reverse for your positions, as the break of this support would open a major sell pressure targeting 1.5650 first, then 1.5600 and lower to 1.5525 if 1.5575 is broken.
Try to close long positions at BE if possible, or at worst they will close on SL.

b- If the platform does not allow double side positions, you may close and reverse positions by using double size sell positions instead of SL, so the bought positions @1.5725 would close and reverse @1.5665 automatically if not given the opportunity to C/R at better prices.

2- Buy the break of 1.5815 targeting 1.5850, 1.5880 and on the eventual break of 1.5906, target 1.5970-90 region.

GU has some nice opportunities:
1- Sell @1.9990 break targeting 1.9955 and to sell again on 1.9940 break targeting the levels 1.9900, 1.9850, 1.9800 and 1.9750 where we have a major support.
2- Buy the break of 2.0120 targeting 2.0150 and 2.0200

Be extra careful today starting 17:00 GMT and wait few minutes after interest rate release to determine market direction. Support/Resistance can break very quick after the release and prices can go up or down without looking back.

Safe trade to all.

Hani
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