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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,521
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:24am Jan 18, 2007 6:24am
Quoting Leugimp
For now will set a buy order @9657 and another @9633 - will be great levels for price to turn back up and form positive reversals on many timeframes. If bubble indicator coincides will be a very high prob trade, however we are far away. Looking for some more quick plays but everything just seems to suspect right now. Alot of "almost" setups getting negated.
Leugimp,

Do you expect the news to take it down to you buying levels? I'm looking for an entry for a long here - 9670 (61fib 9604-9777) is still likely before the news, but down to 9640s... I don't know...

Either way, if news comes slightly USD-positive, we may see the same as yesterday - panic - ranging - resuming uptrend.... (9680, 9666, 9640 adn 9606 are very strong supports)

That's why I´m still trying to figure out the entry here....
  • #2,522
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:37am Jan 18, 2007 6:37am
Quoting cesarnc
Leugimp,

Do you expect the news to take it down to you buying levels? I'm looking for an entry for a long here - 9670 (61fib 9604-9777) is still likely before the news, but down to 9640s... I don't know...

Either way, if news comes slightly USD-positive, we may see the same as yesterday - panic - ranging - resuming uptrend.... (9680, 9666, 9640 adn 9606 are very strong supports)

That's why I´m still trying to figure out the entry here....
My ideal entry long would only come after confirmation, this can be tricky with the news, especially cpi. For me to initiate a long position going into the news it would have to be with low leverage at a good price meaning 9640(reverse engineer of rsi14 on 1600 tick down to 50 level, which if turns there would be a positive reversal, plus would be a nice max for daily range). nevertheless, the bubble indicator is nearing extreme to the low side so a turn prior to the news may be tempting if enough time to grab 20-40 pips. Of course low leverage at this risky juncture. Even more ideal would be for bubble to hit extreme and keep going down to my entry and then 150 tick turns up - that would enable me to add on so more size.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,523
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:40am Jan 18, 2007 6:40am
I dont know if i updated but i canceled my first entry in the 9650's and only have the entry at 9641 active.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,524
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:48am Jan 18, 2007 6:48am
Closed eurjpy +57
Closed gbpjyp +139
Closed long gbpusd +20
Closed short gbpusd-12
Currently up 36 on a short for gbpusd based on the 4hr pin bar
  • #2,525
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:49am Jan 18, 2007 6:49am
Quoting cesarnc
Leugimp,

Do you expect the news to take it down to you buying levels? I'm looking for an entry for a long here - 9670 (61fib 9604-9777) is still likely before the news, but down to 9640s... I don't know...

Either way, if news comes slightly USD-positive, we may see the same as yesterday - panic - ranging - resuming uptrend.... (9680, 9666, 9640 adn 9606 are very strong supports)

That's why I´m still trying to figure out the entry here....
Dear cesarnc

I only agree with 1.9605 for strong support .... we should wait and see what happend after CPI result .
  • #2,526
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:52am Jan 18, 2007 6:52am
That entry(thick white line) would serve me well although if price hit 9604(38.2 fib from just under 9400) I will most likely add on and set my stop behind the fib cluster @9576-9580(where the blue and red fib line are on top of each other).
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,527
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:54am Jan 18, 2007 6:54am
whats the white line
Quoting Leugimp
That entry(thick white line) would serve me well although if price hit 9604(38.2 fib from just under 9400) I will most likely add on and set my stop behind the fib cluster @9576-9580(where the blue and red fib line are on top of each other).
  • #2,528
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:55am Jan 18, 2007 6:55am
Quoting turbokaos
I'm short from 1.9741 stop 1.9790 target 1.9550 running a little hedge
plan to buy on break of 1.9770 stop 1.9730 target 1.9850
well see how the data treats me the high looks to be 1.9777 to trigger my long... but so far my hedge is looking alright
  • #2,529
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:56am Jan 18, 2007 6:56am
there is alot more downside here
  • #2,530
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:56am Jan 18, 2007 6:56am
Quoting goodthings
whats the white line
reverse engineer of rsi giving me price at this point in time that would yield an rsi on close of 50(or whatever i want to set it to)
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,531
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:57am Jan 18, 2007 6:57am
Quoting viking
Dear cesarnc

I only agree with 1.9605 for strong support .... we should wait and see what happend after CPI result .
Thanks Viking,

What I meant is that even with USD-positive news, if the market is willing another attempt high OR close high today, those levels are likely to buffer the downward move, without exposing 9606. A break below 9606 would mean 9460 next stop, imho.

I'm out during the news, too.
  • #2,532
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:01am Jan 18, 2007 7:01am
Quoting 59fender
there is alot more downside here
not doubting you - there is divergence on 4 hr slow stochastic - the question will be, will there be enough move to downside based on this to negate the positive reversal that is still in effect off of the same indicator. That is why I have given myself enough space and used the appropriate leverage so that I may build into this position and we can both be correct. I do understand that is not for everyone though(wide stops), also I have to get filled first.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,533
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:04am Jan 18, 2007 7:04am
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks Viking,

What I meant is that even with USD-positive news, if the market is willing another attempt high OR close high today, those levels are likely to buffer the downward move, without exposing 9606. A break below 9606 would mean 9460 next stop, imho.

I'm out during the news, too.
It will be difficult in the immediate term to penetrate through 9575(on close that is) without a retest of the high. Just an opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,534
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:06am Jan 18, 2007 7:06am
I will admit I did not catch that. I know were busy maybe I will following up more with you if it works for you. Seems you bring a lot of flexibility to the table. Appreciate it.

Quoting Leugimp
reverse engineer of rsi giving me price at this point in time that would yield an rsi on close of 50(or whatever i want to set it to)
  • #2,535
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:06am Jan 18, 2007 7:06am
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks Viking,

What I meant is that even with USD-positive news, if the market is willing another attempt high OR close high today, those levels are likely to buffer the downward move, without exposing 9606. A break below 9606 would mean 9460 next stop, imho.

I'm out during the news, too.
yes + positive CPI will effect on USD Interest Rate , and if USD Interest rate not change then maybe we will touch 1.9260 again ....
  • #2,536
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:11am Jan 18, 2007 7:11am
the sellers are in control
  • #2,537
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:18am Jan 18, 2007 7:18am
Quoting viking
yes + positive CPI will effect on USD Interest Rate , and if USD Interest rate not change then maybe we will touch 1.9260 again ....
Good point... What I'm trying to figure out is when are we going to sink. Straight shot or 97HIGH trip first...
  • #2,538
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:29am Jan 18, 2007 7:29am
Cable is consolidating one cent losses from early Europe six-week highs just shy
of 1.9780, as the market awaits the looming 13:30GMT disclosure of a batch of US
data. The most important release is December inflation figures. Headline CPI is
forecast +0.4% m/m, with core CPI forecast +0.2% m/m.
December housing starts are also due at 13:30GMT, alongside weekly jobless
claims. Housing starts are forecast at 1565k. Jobless claims are forecast at
314k.
The triggering of touted stops below 1.9680 could spur fresh downward
pressure towards 1.9660--where further stops are reportedly pegged. 1.9645 was
yesterday"s NY session low. 1.9692 (today"s Asian session base) is now a minor
resistance level. [email protected]
  • #2,539
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:33am Jan 18, 2007 7:33am
CPI 0.5% as expected

Core CPI -0.2% - is that correct? Isn't that USD-negative?
  • #2,540
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:34am Jan 18, 2007 7:34am
US Dec. housing starts 1642k vs. 1565k cons., 1572k last; permits 1596k vs. 1505k cons., 1513k last. At release EUR$1.2927 - 14:31
US Dec core CPI +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2, last unch. Headline +0.5 vs consensus +0.5, last unch. At release EUR$ 1.2927 - 14:30
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