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Lets Talk GBP/JPY "the geppy"

  • #101
  • Edited 8:04pm Mar 16, 2008 7:39pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting smjones
February 06, 2008 LOL, I am no good at prediction. Much better at Postdiction. LOL

BUT, I say 193.74 on or about 02/25/2008

Lets see if I am even close. This is of course just for fun. Please don't trade on my predictions, because I don't.
Well it took a few days longer than I figured, but it was a hell of a run... Wow. It's 193.74 right now. Those would have been some great trades. Now I will have to re think, as the full objectives were met.

Too bad I did not take my analisys seriously... LOL
  • #102
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:09pm Mar 16, 2008 8:09pm
Quoting smjones
Well it took a few days longer than I figured, but it was a hell of a run... Wow. It's 193.74 right now. Those were some great trades. Now I will have to re think, as the full objectives were met.

Great call, would give a finger or two just to be half that good on predictions

Something tells me that fun, joy and happiness wasn't central in this extreme move. Rather a lot of fear, IMO.

Starting to think what memories 2008 will give us.

Anyway here is a monthly chart;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.jpg Size: 103 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #103
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:13pm Mar 16, 2008 8:13pm
Well I shorted it all the way down in small chunks. Just never did a big set from the Feb 06 when I posted the prediction. I did alright with the shorts, but would have made a win fall if I had taken my prediction seriously. Now I think I will follow my own adivse a little closer. LOL
  • #104
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:19pm Mar 16, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting smjones
Well I shorted it all the way down in small chunks. Just never did a big set from the Feb 06 when I posted the prediction. I did alright with the shorts, but would have made a win fall if I had taken my prediction seriously. Now I think I will follow my own adivse a little closer. LOL
At least you made money. Just imagine all those poor fellas hunting bottoms on this pair, not only today.

I will follow closely for your next prediction lol.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #105
  • Mar 16, 2008 9:10pm Mar 16, 2008 9:10pm
Quoting smjones
Well I shorted it all the way down in small chunks. Just never did a big set from the Feb 06 when I posted the prediction. I did alright with the shorts, but would have made a win fall if I had taken my prediction seriously. Now I think I will follow my own adivse a little closer. LOL
Cheers.
  • #106
  • Mar 18, 2008 3:09am Mar 18, 2008 3:09am
Possible correction to 202.50 or wishful thinking

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/9619/gbpcopymr6.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #107
  • Mar 18, 2008 8:53am Mar 18, 2008 8:53am
I'm having a bad feeling about 188ish... Japan will need a "pimp my economy" show of its own.
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  • #108
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:41pm Mar 20, 2008 6:41pm
Already posted this in another thread but allow me to post it here with an updated version.

Always amaze me how accurate old lines (blue dotted) could be.

Notice how those 3 lowest descending (blue dotted) lines acts like Dr. Andrews Pitchfork with lower and upper part acts like S/R and middle line as magnet;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1h.jpg Size: 136 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #109
  • Mar 21, 2008 1:44am Mar 21, 2008 1:44am
Quoting aediaz1
Already posted this in another thread but allow me to post it here with an updated version.

Always amaze me how accurate old lines (blue dotted) could be.

Notice how those 3 lowest descending (blue dotted) lines acts like Dr. Andrews Pitchfork with lower and upper part acts like S/R and middle line as magnet;
Looks like a good example of "draw enough lines and they'll have to be hit".

I just want the one line that turns price around for good or triggers a fall once lost for good.
What usefullness do "sometimes, sometimes not a reaction" lines have that aren't far enough apart for a setup to form?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #110
  • Edited 6:35am Mar 21, 2008 6:24am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting SeekingLight
Looks like a good example of "draw enough lines and they'll have to be hit".

I just want the one line that turns price around for good or triggers a fall once lost for good.
What usefullness do "sometimes, sometimes not a reaction" lines have that aren't far enough apart for a setup to form?
This is just a continued angel from earlier stage on gbpjpy.

And the lines marked red have been used as pitchfork lines, trading long on lower median line and short on upper median line.

"sometimes, sometimes not a reaction" Well, as long as those lines provide me with decent successful scenarios I don't concern if others see them as "random".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1h.jpg Size: 147 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #111
  • Mar 21, 2008 7:59am Mar 21, 2008 7:59am
Quoting aediaz1
... as long as those lines provide me with decent successful scenarios I don't concern if others see them as "random".
Hey aediaz1, Did you take those {dotted} Trades in Real Time? Quite frankly, they look like hindsight to me.

Also, are those Lines Calculated or Hand Drawn?
  • #112
  • Mar 21, 2008 8:14am Mar 21, 2008 8:14am
Quoting Bemac
Hey aediaz1, Did you take those {dotted} Trades in Real Time? Quite frankly, they look like hindsight to me.

Also, are those Lines Calculated or Hand Drawn?
Hi Bemac. Yes I did take does 4 "last" trades marked with blue circles. Would you explain more from your point of view how those lines might be wrongly drawn/not intact ? I'm here as (almost) everyone else to learn and improve.

I only posted those lines to share how old lines could come into play again. If the opposite is proved I'm not afraid saying "hey, I was dead wrong".

They are hand drawn.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #113
  • Mar 21, 2008 9:22am Mar 21, 2008 9:22am
Quoting aediaz1
Hi Bemac. Yes I did take does 4 "last" trades marked with blue circles. Would you explain more from your point of view how those lines might be wrongly drawn/not intact ? I'm here as (almost) everyone else to learn and improve.
I see some reasoning for the "Lower Red Line" at it's origins but unless the "Upper Red Line" is simply plotted as 'Parallel' and hung on the previous High {dangerous btw} I see no validity to that line. ie. You are currently taking Short Positions based on One Old Spike High.
Quoting aediaz1
I only posted those lines to share how old lines could come into play again. If the opposite is proved I'm not afraid saying "hey, I was dead wrong".
Cool, then we can start an open minded discussion on this and, hopefully, both learn something.


Quoting aediaz1
They are hand drawn.
OK. Notice that they are Not Brick Walls {more like hay bales} and therefore Price only Respects them if it doesn't feel like Fighting. Very Important, when Trading TL to know if it is Holding or Broken. This involves looking at recent {guess what, Price Action} to determin potential Risk Before taking the Trade.
Notice that, although the Price Appears to be following your Upper Red, it is in fact up against Horizontal Resistance {ie. reluctance to be Valued Higher} from back at your "Magnet"

This would probably be more visable without the lines in the way.


  • #114
  • Mar 21, 2008 10:04am Mar 21, 2008 10:04am
Quoting Bemac
I see some reasoning for the "Lower Red Line" at it's origins but unless the "Upper Red Line" is simply plotted as 'Parallel' and hung on the previous High {dangerous btw} I see no validity to that line. ie. You are currently taking Short Positions based on One Old Spike High.
Cool, then we can start an open minded discussion on this and, hopefully, both learn something.


OK. Notice that they are Not Brick Walls {more like hay bales} and therefore Price only Respects them if it doesn't feel like Fighting. Very Important, when Trading TL to know if it is Holding or Broken. This involves looking at recent {guess what, Price Action} to determin potential Risk Before taking the Trade.
Notice that, although the Price Appears to be following your Upper Red, it is in fact up against Horizontal Resistance {ie. reluctance to be Valued Higher} from back at your "Magnet"

This would probably be more visable without the lines in the way.


Thank you for your detailed explanation. Looks like I have a lot to learn from you. Few have spoken with so much experience behind their words when it comes to this field (correct me if I'm wrong, might just be a simple explanation for you). Enough butt-kissing !

By saying "horizontal" resistance did you mean it literally ? From my point of view, a descending line would make more sense to me, or do I misunderstand you ? See attached chart.

Seems like I have to be way more critical about my own lines when drawn from "historical" events as keep it simple is "always" the winner

Glad you (guys) pointed it out, losing critical judgment over own analyzes is one big step backward.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1h.jpg Size: 99 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #115
  • Mar 21, 2008 11:14am Mar 21, 2008 11:14am
In this instance we are looking at the Pound/Yen but it could be Any Traded Vehicle.

1: Mar 13th - 14th The Pound is not worth More than 205 Yen but It Is worth More than 203 Yen.

2: Mar 16th - 18th Pennant. The epitome of a Market Begging for a Reason to Trade.

3: Mar 19th - 21st The Pound is not worth More than 198 Yen but It Is worth More than 195 Yen.
Attached Image
  • #116
  • Mar 21, 2008 11:56am Mar 21, 2008 11:56am
Quoting Bemac
In this instance we are looking at the Pound/Yen but it could be Any Traded Vehicle.

1: Mar 13th - 14th The Pound is not worth More than 205 Yen but It Is worth More than 203 Yen.

2: Mar 16th - 18th Pennant. The epitome of a Market Begging for a Reason to Trade.

3: Mar 19th - 21st The Pound is not worth More than 198 Yen but It Is worth More than 195 Yen.
Volumes have pattern (decreasing through whole formation and then increase with higher "peaks" during breakout) but it's rather rare so I understand the skeptic. This is the only way I use volumes, as an extra confirmation when I see a pattern within volumes.

Some of my favorite patterns to trade is pennants. They do an excellent job marking midway moves.

"What are these 3 formations conveying" ?

Well, looking with an simple eye, 1 and 3 provide us with plain S/R and nr 2 with pennant, as you say. Where you diggin for something more ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #117
  • Mar 21, 2008 4:45pm Mar 21, 2008 4:45pm
I'm not diggin for anything. Just trying to open your mind to See Out the Window as opposed to Looking Out the Window.

There is Nothing Wrong with your current Style. You Trade it {diligently} as you see fit. I only interjected because I noticed a 'potential' flaw in your 'Setup'. {apologies for the intrusion on the original thread}

Just trying to save you a few pips.
(Volume) In the current FX Market, ONLY reflects the mentality of all the others that Chose to deposit with your Borker. AND It will change even if the Price does not.

Research Open Interest & keep your discoveries in your pouch.
  • #118
  • Edited 8:43am Mar 22, 2008 4:18am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting aediaz1
And the lines marked red have been used as pitchfork lines, trading long on lower median line and short on upper median line.

"sometimes, sometimes not a reaction" Well, as long as those lines provide me with decent successful scenarios I don't concern if others see them as "random".
Well what I was trying to say was: if there's sometimes a reaction, but sometimes not, there's got to be a defining ruleset which enables you to trade them. I.e. if you post something saying how great it works, do not forget to also add an explanation what it is that you're actually showing.

Personally, this was/is my universe: Yes, price can show reaction at old lines again sometimes, but I've found that there's usually one defining line you want to watch(unless there's a triangle/wedge/pennant like in the later charts, which is always important to watch) and the one reaction I look for is a TL break then retest+confirmation of the loss. There's also channels etc, but that's usually just another TL with a second one that isn't THAT important ;p

If you use pitchforks and re-use broken/violated TLs, then I just need to know why, how it is supposed to work, what it tells me(Bemac) and where to enter, put a stop and where to aim for, and what it is, that gives the entry in the first place(in short: what's the setup, what's the trade).


Just pointing out a brief: "isn't this great" might be nice as an exclamation of happyness, but it does little to help me understand what you're trying to say chartwise and why. The intention of the post is unclear if it's hard for anyone beyond you(who trades it/can trade it) to understand what it is that you are posting(if it's only useful to you - why make it a post?). Or at least it was beyond me. So I nudged a bit ;p

Not trying to start a riot
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #119
  • Edited 12:10pm Mar 22, 2008 7:32am | Edited 12:10pm
Bemac: Again, thank you for sharing your experience and help me resolving potential flaws in how I trade, as I constant trying to improve myself on every trade. Even though I manage to make profits, I'm still a small fish adjusting/improving to this market. As far as I see it, developing/polish own strategy to make me a resilient trader and constantly (i.e years) profitable is a long road (to success) with plenty more years of practice lying ahead of me. And I will dig into open interest.

SeekingLight: I understand you wanted a explanation from my messy chart and apologies for not giving any as it DID seems so "logical" to my dead-tired mind when posting it lol

I'm glad you started this "riot" : or else I wouldn't learn from this trade as I walked away with profit and didn't see anything wrong with it until you stated it. Making profit but missing meaningful wisdom is dangerous, IMO.

As for the pitchforks, allow me to say that those "setups" have proved to be quite profitable events in my trading. But I can count on my hands how many times those perfect setups have occurred. Might improve with my experience
Measure twice, cut once
  • #120
  • Apr 1, 2008 8:15am Apr 1, 2008 8:15am
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