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  • #241
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:12am Mar 16, 2008 8:12am
I've posted two charts showing areas of interest. The daily shows possible support at the 50.0% fib retracement (1.5050/1.5000). Also included is another area of support on the 4 hour based on PPZs (1.5250).

Right now I'm on "intervention watch". I also read somewhere that this week financial institutions will be reporting earnings plus we also have the interest rate statement on Tuesday. Based on the calendar, we're most likely going to be in for a lot of volatility on Monday and Tuesday so be very cautious on taking long positions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily50_mar16.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #242
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:21pm Mar 16, 2008 5:21pm
You gotta love this market. Australian session just opened and the EURUSD has straight away taken off to 1.5740. Did anything come out in the news over the weekend to justify this or is it just Aussies that missed out on the Bear Stearns influence on the Friday US session?????

I was looking at trying to get set again at around 1.5550 as I didn't trust the previous round number at 1.5600 and there appeared to be a reasonably strong support level around 1.5530.

Ah well, not going to chase it. In my opinion it is going up way too fast to sustain itself. At some stage soon there will be a pull back from profit taking and once that happens people who were chasing the Euro will panic sell it down a 100 pips or so. I supposee the one problem with this market is it is Blue Sky territory with no historical tops to run off.

Hopefully will come back 150+ pips at some stage. I have put in a buy at 1.5600 and will place a 100 pip stop to put it below the 1.5530 support level. At the moment I think the 50 pip SL is a little too tight.

K8
  • #243
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:42pm Mar 16, 2008 5:42pm
Quoting Khornate8
You gotta love this market. Australian session just opened and the EURUSD has straight away taken off to 1.5740. Did anything come out in the news over the weekend to justify this or is it just Aussies that missed out on the Bear Stearns influence on the Friday US session?????

I was looking at trying to get set again at around 1.5550 as I didn't trust the previous round number at 1.5600 and there appeared to be a reasonably strong support level around 1.5530.

Ah well, not going to chase it. In my opinion it is going up way too fast to sustain itself. At some stage soon there will be a pull back from profit taking and once that happens people who were chasing the Euro will panic sell it down a 100 pips or so. I supposee the one problem with this market is it is Blue Sky territory with no historical tops to run off.

Hopefully will come back 150+ pips at some stage. I have put in a buy at 1.5600 and will place a 100 pip stop to put it below the 1.5530 support level. At the moment I think the 50 pip SL is a little too tight.

K8
No kidding. I was looking at my charts now and there's a pretty big gap. It may close that gap and retreat back down to 1.5700 since that's the closest round number. Or... I may be totally wrong and it goes straight to 1.5800 LOL
  • #244
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:51pm Mar 16, 2008 5:51pm
Quoting zoopy
No kidding. I was looking at my charts now and there's a pretty big gap. It may close that gap and retreat back down to 1.5700 since that's the closest round number. Or... I may be totally wrong and it goes straight to 1.5800 LOL
I've got a 3 sided coin to toss. Heads/tails/......, anyone's guess but I'm not going to chase. Buy on dips Jacko says. 30 - 40 pips right now to 1.5700 is not significant enough a dip IMHO. If it hits 1.5800 then 1.5700 might be a place to set a buy at???

I won;t be too unhappy missing the whole move no matter how high it goes. Shows I am learning patience in trading and not following my usually impulse buying trait which generally gets me into trouble.

Are you able to give a heads up where Jacko has a buy in at???

K8
  • #245
  • Mar 16, 2008 5:57pm Mar 16, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting Khornate8
I've got a 3 sided coin to toss. Heads/tails/......, anyone's guess but I'm not going to chase. Buy on dips Jacko says. 30 - 40 pips right now to 1.5700 is not significant enough a dip IMHO. If it hits 1.5800 then 1.5700 might be a place to set a buy at???

I won;t be too unhappy missing the whole move no matter how high it goes. Shows I am learning patients in trading and not following my usually impulse buying trait which generally gets me into trouble.

Are you able to give a heads up where Jacko has a buy in at???

K8

Oh, I wasn't saying I'm a buyer at 1.5700, I was just saying the gap was likely going to be closed lol.

Right now Jacko is on vacation and I think that was a smart move. Although I know he'll probably read this and gnash his teeth because he could have made a ton on this crazy move up we've had. Just picture this... he leaves when the market is at around 1.5400 and comes back to see it's at 1.6 in less than 10 days LOL

This is not directed to you, but for all those that read my journal. I don't disclose the buying prices that he enters in at or anything related to the private group. Anything listed here is my own personal view and approach.
  • #246
  • Mar 16, 2008 6:48pm Mar 16, 2008 6:48pm
just bounced off 1.5680 and pushed striaght into 1.5750. Lets see if it tests 1.5680 again.
  • #247
  • Mar 16, 2008 7:14pm Mar 16, 2008 7:14pm
If it does come back to 1.5700 again there might be some good range trades today in the Australian session as it may range from 1.5680 to 1.5760 as long as only buying long on the dips...

just a thought

K8
  • #248
  • Mar 16, 2008 9:24pm Mar 16, 2008 9:24pm
this northbound train appears to have lost it's driver. Is currently taking off through 1.5870+. Now 1.5890+ 70 pips in a couple of minutes

1.5900+
  • #249
  • Edited 3:04am Mar 17, 2008 2:49am | Edited 3:04am
looks like the northbound train missed a couple of stops. Is currently coming back at the start of the European sessions. Coming down to 1.5750 levels.

Historically what would a 25 point rate cut/rise be worth in pips.....
  • #250
  • Edited 7:56am Mar 17, 2008 5:48am | Edited 7:56am
I'm a buyer at 1.5750. I will be giving my explanation to this and an easier solution to entries in the following post.

edit
8:50am NY: Knocked out at breakeven.
  • #251
  • Mar 17, 2008 6:18am Mar 17, 2008 6:18am
This past weekend I was going through my journal and the entry approaches I posted in post#240. Thought to myself even though those charts are clear and simple, there has to be an easier way. Here is a better solution (in my view) which I will be testing over the next few weeks.

Before I get to how I arrived at the solution, I asked myself this question...
"What time frame do most traders tend to use?" The answer: Most likely daily and 1 hour time frame.

Having said that, I decided to just apply the 50.0% fib retracement on the 1 hour and enter at round numbers around that area. If the trade fails I fall back on to the daily chart and be sure to apply the AH.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_1 hour.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #252
  • Mar 17, 2008 6:26am Mar 17, 2008 6:26am
On the 1 hour chart 1.5750 also appears to be acting as a support at the moment. One sharp drop through that didn't last long. Hopefully will go through once more to get your entry then into blue sky territory

K8
  • #253
  • Edited 10:52am Mar 17, 2008 8:42am | Edited 10:52am
Market dropped further so I entered in at 1.5700. Lets see if this level holds...

edit
10:09am NY: Price is at 1.5754. 50 pip trail in place. Free trade.
11:45am NY: Trade knocked out +40 pips
  • #254
  • Mar 17, 2008 8:58am Mar 17, 2008 8:58am
Quoting zoopy
Market dropped further so I entered in at 1.5700. Lets see if this level holds...
yes, let's see....
Attached Image
  • #255
  • Mar 17, 2008 11:05am Mar 17, 2008 11:05am
lol... I'm not sure if this is good or not but everytime this Euro drops back I just keep buying. If it goes up and I cash in again and it again drops... I'll again keep buying.
  • #256
  • Mar 17, 2008 11:59am Mar 17, 2008 11:59am
Quoting zoopy
lol... I'm not sure if this is good or not but everytime this Euro drops back I just keep buying. If it goes up and I cash in again and it again drops... I'll again keep buying.
lol... I'll be too.. if it drops to 4950!... but I'm hoping to retest 5900 again, one more time please...
  • #257
  • Mar 17, 2008 5:31pm Mar 17, 2008 5:31pm
Quoting zoopy
lol... I'm not sure if this is good or not but everytime this Euro drops back I just keep buying. If it goes up and I cash in again and it again drops... I'll again keep buying.

My outlook for eurusd may change later tonight depending on the daily bar. Right now we have what appears to be a pinbar meaning a possibility of a downward move. IF it is a pinbar (I'll know at 8:00pm NY), I'll be re-evaluating my charts and watching new levels of interest.

My previous trade of 1.5750 will remain as is and I'll let that play out win/lose.
  • #258
  • Mar 17, 2008 7:13pm Mar 17, 2008 7:13pm
Ok... so we have a daily pinbar. However, the prior bar is a Sunday bar (on the ibfx feed) so I'm not sure how effective this one will be. In any case if price does decline, the next level I'll be looking at is based on the 1 hour time frame and the level is 1.5600.

I used a more defined valley to draw the swing low at so there's a chance this will be seen by more traders. If price does drop, I'll be watching that area to see how price reacts around there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_1 hour_mar17.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #259
  • Mar 17, 2008 7:31pm Mar 17, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting zoopy
Ok... so we have a daily pinbar. However, the prior bar is a Sunday bar (on the ibfx feed) so I'm not sure how effective this one will be. In any case if price does decline, the next level I'll be looking at is based on the 1 hour time frame and the level is 1.5600.

I used a more defined valley to draw the swing low at so there's a chance this will be seen by more traders. If price does drop, I'll be watching that area to see how price reacts around there.
It's a nice pb regardless with 160pips nose. If it breaks lower, I'd be surprised if we saw 1.59 ever again..
Hey, checkout one of my lousiest broker feed for g/j and e/u.....
Attached Images
  • #260
  • Mar 17, 2008 7:44pm Mar 17, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting raczekfx
It's a nice pb regardless with 160pips nose. If it breaks lower, I'd be surprised if we saw 1.59 ever again..
Hey, checkout one of my lousiest broker feed for g/j and e/u.....
LOL... wthell?

I noticed my euro spread on Oanda has gone up to 1.2/1.6. Usually it's 0.9 I think. Judging from your spreads though, I'm not sure why I would want to trade euro when I could easily make money on gj. All you need to do is follow the huge moves, grab 100 pips then out of the market lol.
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