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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #68,521
  • Mar 15, 2008 6:38am Mar 15, 2008 6:38am
and a chart without any comments. i already posted this in another thread, but i think all of you will find it useful.
oh... and about holding longs... i don't know. they might turn out profitable within the next few years, but until then i'm short again at that last check sign.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjd.gif Size: 20 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #68,522
  • Mar 15, 2008 6:39am Mar 15, 2008 6:39am
Quoting naatha
---------------------
CCI is a MOMENTUM based indicator, but CCI is a LEADING indi, not lagging.
27.02.08
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...2292008114.png
11.03.08
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...1520086137.png
CCI indicator can predict the market for 2weeks, now it is a fact, - so there is no any Lagging.
cci measures the variation of a security's price from it's statistical mean. It is calculated using price. Therefore the last tick needs to end before it can be calculated, It is lagging. lol

CCI is good I used to use it but find the rapid rsi better.

One has to remember that indicators just show what the future price movements might be, If i get a buy or sell signal from rsi I add or deduct pips from the high or low of the trigger bar to make sure they are not false triggers. It keeps me in a lot of positions that I would otehr wise have sold.

I swing trade audusd, Here is my 2 hour chart .. sweet waves with minimal draw down.
I had a buy triger on march 03 , but the trigger did not get filled , it enabled me to stay in the trade for a 100 more pips.

Not as exciting as gbpjpy but less risk . This is a pair where I like to compound my profits.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 261 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #68,523
  • Mar 15, 2008 6:43am Mar 15, 2008 6:43am
Quoting Scrat
except that at the current pace, i see that monthly support line hit at 184 area, not 189 .
Even better ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #68,524
  • Edited 7:01am Mar 15, 2008 6:46am | Edited 7:01am
perfect explanation. when you use an indicator you MUST KNOW WHAT IT SHOWS YOU. when i was a newbie, i used to deal with it like this: OS = buy, OB = sell. after i blew a demo account (lucky me it was just demo), i realized that it's not as simple as that and it would take me quite some time to become a millionaire just by using this. so i found out there are divergences, and then multiple timeframes... trend lines... waves... fibo patterns...
CCI works perfect for me (yes... it's leading and lagging at the same time if i can say so...), as i only enter a trade after the current candle closes. also, it's much better than RSI at spotting divergences.
but it really doesn't matter. what it matters is if you know what your indicator is showing, how to interpret it and if you can make profit based on its signals.
each trader has its own trading style.

Quoting malcolmb14
cci measures the variation of a security's price from it's statistical mean. It is calculated using price. Therefore the last tick needs to end before it can be calculated, It is lagging. lol

CCI is good I used to use it but find the rapid rsi better.

One has to remember that indicators just show what the future price movements might be, If i get a buy or sell signal from rsi I add or deduct pips from the high or low of the trigger bar to make sure they are not false triggers. It keeps me in a lot of positions that I would otehr wise have sold.

I swing trade audusd, Here is my 2 hour chart .. sweet waves with minimal draw down.
I had a buy triger on march 03 , but the trigger did not get filled , it enabled me to stay in the trade for a 100 more pips.

Not as exciting as gbpjpy but less risk . This is a pair where I like to compound my profits.

Attachment
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #68,525
  • Mar 15, 2008 7:00am Mar 15, 2008 7:00am
good morning all
Q hows u today?
  • #68,526
  • Mar 15, 2008 7:16am Mar 15, 2008 7:16am
Quoting mktjong
Ok, thanks a lot Spanishfly. It's good to hear it's working for you.
The reason I raised up the "repaints" issue as because if by looking at the history chart, it has distorted the credibility of the "real performance".
Nevertheless, I have my own strategy using a commersial price pressure chart. But will start to pay attention to this indicator as well.
Thanks again
Here's the indicator you need if you want to do a historical check and here's the quote from the coder:
---------
This indicator was developed as an analysis tool to go with Auslanco's Momentum strategies. Because Auslanco pays a lot of attention to what the momentum indicator is pointing to at the beginning of a new bar, this indicator captures the momentum reading at that time and displays it to the user.

The display is a series of alternating colored short line segments. Each segment spans just 2 bars. Each individual line segment is showing what the momentum reading was at the beginning of the most recent bar of the two.

A standard momentum line is drawn in a light colored dotted line so you can see the actual momentum readings when they differ.

I wouldn't expect people to have this indicator on the charts all the time, but it can be used as an analysis tool to verify the validity of momentum readings and to remember what it said at the beginning of various bars.

It has one input parameter which is "MomPeriod". This is simply the momentum period you wish to use.
-----------
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Momentum-Start.mq4   8 KB | 351 downloads
  • #68,527
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:37am Mar 15, 2008 9:37am
Quoting GodfreyH
Here's the indicator you need if you want to do a historical check and here's the quote from the coder:
---------
This indicator was developed as an analysis tool to go with Auslanco's Momentum strategies. Because Auslanco pays a lot of attention to what the momentum indicator is pointing to at the beginning of a new bar, this indicator captures the momentum reading at that time and displays it to the user.

The display is a series of alternating colored short line segments. Each segment spans just 2 bars. Each individual line segment is showing what the momentum reading was at the beginning of the most recent bar of the two.

A standard momentum line is drawn in a light colored dotted line so you can see the actual momentum readings when they differ.

I wouldn't expect people to have this indicator on the charts all the time, but it can be used as an analysis tool to verify the validity of momentum readings and to remember what it said at the beginning of various bars.

It has one input parameter which is "MomPeriod". This is simply the momentum period you wish to use.
-----------
Thanks GodfreyH. It really helps to verify the credibility of the indicator .. good job and thanks to the developer as well for the good intention

I can see many false signals generated by the weekly momentum indicator. Even with a strict criteria as how to pull a trigger based on Spanishfly's explanation (See chart).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-jpy.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #68,528
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:39am Mar 15, 2008 9:39am
according to this (which is usually accurate), we are down 100 pips from my brokers close.
http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/
  • #68,529
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:43am Mar 15, 2008 9:43am
Quoting markam
according to this (which is usually accurate), we are down 100 pips from my brokers close.
http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/
This is what I have markam.

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes_crossrates.htm
  • #68,530
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:54am Mar 15, 2008 9:54am
@ ALL Experts in this Forum :
I see on Stoch that Market seems OVERSOLD or NEAR it , Do you expect any Bounce from here , or You guess market will open Lower and Will Remain Lower ?
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #68,531
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:55am Mar 15, 2008 9:55am
Quoting Spanishfly
It repeaints with the price movements. But the most important indicator reading is at the atrt of the candle bar. Thats the actual direction . Most times it repaints when the momentum is weak or the the actual price action is against the momentum.

Just like everyone else I first struggled to learn the strategy.. Blew up 4 accounts(DEMO ) Then I turned a $5000-demo account into $10000 in two months with only 2% risk per trade. WIn ratio was 90% with profit factor over 11.00 on live trading. Now I trade this strategy live ona $25K for the last 2 moths with 12/15 wins. Results are beyond my expectations.
Lucky you. I believe you ...
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #68,532
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:55am Mar 15, 2008 9:55am
Hi Auslanco,

I'm a fan!
It's amazing how many people you have helped.

I have a request and I'm pretty sure that others have asked of this before either at this forum or in your life in general.

I used to trade US equities and emini's for full time years back, but since then have taken another route. Also when I used to trade, markets used to have diff't tendencies, and I was a lot more confident in trading. I now have a "real" job that keeps me busy. I was wondering for people like me, have you ever considered managing money? I believe this venture would be a win win situation, for you would enhance other people's lives and in return you would incur extra income through performance fees.

-If you do manage for others- what type of return are you getting net net per month for your clients?
-what are the deepest drawdowns you've experienced so far peak to bottom?


Currently I have 2 managed accounts, one good, one not so good. I would love to hear your feedback on my proposal.

Thanks in advance and hope to hear from you soon.

P.S.--btw, what area of the world do you reside?

Regards,

Clashman
  • #68,533
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:59am Mar 15, 2008 9:59am
How bout this dagoods....Price hit our 161.8 to the pip and bounced hard. Gotta love the fibs!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP32-20080315-105651.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #68,534
  • Mar 15, 2008 10:01am Mar 15, 2008 10:01am
Quoting markam
according to this (which is usually accurate), we are down 100 pips from my brokers close.
http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/
Did you Every Checked it ? I mean , Are you sure about their Report , When Monday Market Reopens , It will start from what they show ?
I remember , Even CGQ or Bloomberg , Had Difference , For Example , Market Closed on 206.30 on 2008.02.29 and Opened 205.99 while both of them on my Desktop Software they provide and Website was really different !!? Immediately after market opened , they just shifted their price !!!!!
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #68,535
  • Mar 15, 2008 10:04am Mar 15, 2008 10:04am
Quoting Pyramid
Did you Every Checked it ? I mean , Are you sure about their Report , When Monday Market Reopens , It will start from what they show ?
I remember , Even CGQ or Bloomberg , Had Difference , For Example , Market Closed on 206.30 on 2008.02.29 and Opened 205.99 while both of them on my Desktop Software they provide and Website was really different !!? Immediately after market opened , they just shifted their price !!!!!
Most of the time the price gets back to where it closed by mkt open Sunday night.(At least it does on the site I posted but it may be different than Markams.)
  • #68,536
  • Mar 15, 2008 10:14am Mar 15, 2008 10:14am
Check These
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/fxc.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839178/site/14081545/

Two Different Price
http://api.cnbc.com/api/chart/chart....hideExchange=0

Sorry to say but ,
USA FLAG has been Changed NEW FLAG
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...it_crunch2.jpg
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #68,537
  • Mar 15, 2008 10:21am Mar 15, 2008 10:21am
Quoting mktjong
Thanks GodfreyH. It really helps to verify the credibility of the indicator .. good job and thanks to the developer as well for the good intention

I can see many false signals generated by the weekly momentum indicator. Even with a strict criteria as how to pull a trigger based on Spanishfly's explanation (See chart).
After a more careful observation, even from the last week chart, the momemtum 10C & 14C indicator tells to go long, but see what it ended up :
Have to be very careful to use whatever kind of indicators. It only gives you a more odds on your side, never a leading. Some traders combine it with other confirmations to add another odds on their side, that's all.
I think we should never ever claim any kind of indicator as a leading price direction of the future. If it is, everybody is a winner.
  • #68,538
  • Edited 11:36am Mar 15, 2008 10:36am | Edited 11:36am
Okay, many people on this thread have been asking me about the ZL Stoch and how it can be best used for trading.

Well like many have stated, using Aus. 1hr/4hr system with a bit of ingenuity makes for a great trading system - simple at best.

Below is a 4hr chart that I use as a trading road map for GJ but I also use a 15 min chart to determine when a move has been exhausted.

The way I use Aus. system for buy/sell opportunity is with hi/lo Gann (blue line), 5 SMA close (white line), ZL Stoch. indicator, s/r line (yellow lines) and simple trend lines (magenta lines).

When 5 SMA close has crossed hi/lo Gann and ZL Stoch has confirmed it with a cross then I put in my entry buy/sell. . . Typically on a 4hr chart this move is good for at least 150-300 pips as can be seen from the chart.

However, one has to have an idea of his or her TP target. . . This will vary depending on your trading style and capital investment. I typically use intraday, daily, weekly and monthly pivots for this as I have explained before. The reason for the variation is, it depends on if I'm scalping, trading short or long term which is dictated by the trend and my position. . .

Also notice support and resistance levels. . . As can be seen price has either been supported or rejected at certain levels. This is where one could have bought or sold with reasonable stops (above or below) with minimal risk using ZL Stoch, 5 SMA and hi/lo Gann as a guide. . .

I'm not going to go into detail regarding this chart as I think it is very self evident what's going here. . . I have pointed out a few things on this simple chart that can be studied to give you a clear view how I trade the GJ pair. . .

Many wonder why I always post in this thread the following: if price breaks a level then the next target is this, a break of this target will see next target at XXXX. Well I'm using intraday/daily pivots as my guide/road map in addition to these very simple methods.

I also talk about price closing above/below intraday/daily pivots. . . This is a good method to use to determine where price could go next which is either the next support or resistance level. . . If price closes lower than it opened this should be telling u something and vise versa within reason!

That's why it is essential to look at the whole picture and not rely on just one indicator or trend lines or hocu pocus or whatever.

I'll say it once and I'll say it again -
It's Always Good To See The Glass Half Full And Half Empty!

Forex is not a guessing game! Successful traders try to reduce risk and protect profits.

Gamblers focus mainly on maximizing profits which leads to over leveraging and losing huge amounts of capital. . .

Keep in mind this is just one method I use and continue to explore other methods in my toolbox depending if the market is trending sideways, up/down/ranging etc. . .

It's always good to have many tools in the toolbox to adjust for a volatile market. For example, sometimes I will use chart pattern to determine where price could go, other times I might use a volume indicator to give clues on a specific move. Lastly I may use Trend Traffic to help eliminate fake-out trend reversals. These are just a few examples of using other tools in the toolbox in addition to what works to help see a clearer picture regarding where price could go next. (And I stress could, nothing is certain)

Lastly, I won't get into the fundamentals aspect of trading but I will say this - it does play a part where the market will go. I'm not saying trade on this type of news however it will give you a good idea where price will go next based on market sentiments. . .

At the end of the day Forex is based on one simple thing and that is:

The Law of Supply and Demand! Which comes from Business 101!

Furthermore, Price is based on market conditions and peoples emotions. If this wasn't the case there would be no market! So what does this equate to, glad u asked. . .
1) Price
2) Volume
3) Timing
There is no magic trick here, this is what moves a market!

We must always adjust accordingly so:
Never get married to a position, always be prepared to adjust with an adjusting market!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr chart.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #68,539
  • Mar 15, 2008 11:08am Mar 15, 2008 11:08am
Quoting quecee5
Okay, many people on this thread have been asking me about the ZL Stoch and how it can be best used for trading.

Well like many have stated, using Aus. 1hr/4hr system with a bit of ingenuity makes for a great trading system - simple at best.

Below is a 4hr chart that I use as a trading road map for GJ but I also use a 15 min chart to determine when a move has been exhausted.

The way I use Aus. system for buy/sell opportunity is with hi/lo Gann (blue line), 5 SMA close (white line), ZL Stoch. indicator, s/r line (yellow lines) and simple trend lines (magenta lines).

When 5 SMA close has crossed hi/lo Gann and ZL Stoch has confirmed it with a cross then I put in my entry buy/sell. . . Typically on a 4hr chart this move is good for at least 150-300 pips as can be seen from the chart.

However, one has to have an idea of his or hers TP target. . . This will vary depending on your trading style and capital investment. I typically use intraday, daily, weekly and monthly pivots for this as I have explained before. The reason for the variation is, it depends on if I'm scalping, trading short or long term which is dictated by the trend and my position. . .

Also notice support and resistance levels. . . As can be seen price has either been supported or rejected at certain levels. This is where one could have bought or sold with reasonable stops (above or below) with minimal risk using ZL Stoch, 5 SMA and hi/lo Gann as a guide. . .

I'm not going to go into detail regarding this chart as I think it is very self evident what's going here. . . I have pointed out a few things on this simple chart that can be studied to give you a clear view how I trade the GJ pair. . .

Many wonder why I always post inthis thread the following: if price breaks a level then the next target is this, a break of this target will see next target at XXXX. Well I'm using intraday/daily pivots as my guide in addition to these very simple methods.

I also talk about price closing above/below intraday/daily pivots. . . This is a good method to use to determine where price could go next which is either the next support or resistance level. . . If price closes lower than it opened this should be telling u something and vise versa within reason!

That's why it is essential to look at the whole picture and not rely on just one indicator or trend lines or hocu pocus or whatever.

I'll say it once and I'll say it again -
It's Always Good To See The Glass Half Full And Half Empty!

Forex is not a guessing game! Successful traders try to reduce risk and protect profits.

Gamblers focus mainly on maximizing profits which leads to over leveraging and losing huge amounts of capital. . .

Keep in mind this is just one method I use and continue to explore other methods in my toolbox depending if the market is trending sideways, up/down/ranging etc. . .

It's always good to have many tools in the toolbox to adjust for a volatile market. For example sometimes I will use chart pattern to determine where price could go, other times I might use a volume indicator to give clues on a specific move and lastly Trend Traffic to help eliminate fake-out trend reversals. These are just a few examples of using other tools in the toolbox in addition to what works to help see a clearer picture regarding where price could go next. (And I stress could, nothing is certain)

Lastly, I won't get into the fundamentals aspect of trading but I will say this - it does play a part where the market will go. I'm not saying trade on this type of news however it will give you a good idea where price will go next based on market sentiments. . .

At the end of the day Forex is based on the base on one thing and that is:

The Law of Supply and Demand! Which comes from Business 101!

Furthermore, Price is based on market conditions and peoples emotions. If this wasn't the case there would be no market! We must always adjust accordingly so:

Never get married to a position, always be prepared to adjust with an adjusting market!

Thanks for the awesome post.

You bought up alot of good points in that posting and it must have taken you some time to put together.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #68,540
  • Mar 15, 2008 11:17am Mar 15, 2008 11:17am
Quoting malcolmb14
Thanks for the awesome post.

You bought up alot of good points in that posting and it must have taken you some time to put together.
I was still editing as you responded. . .lol! =

But nevertheless, I think people will get the point. Hopefully we all can continue to share our successful trading ideas and failures on this thread so we all can become better traders and take $$$'s out the market.

I like several traders style on this thread including yours and it opens up a world of new ways of trading whether incorporating it into your own system or taking on some other trading style. At the end of the day if it helps us to become better traders who cares. . .

This thread is one of the best trading threads out there because of Aus. but it has evolved into a plethora of new ways of trading which is PRICELESS!

Keep up the good work my friend as I read all your post and they make a lot of sense in my mind!
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