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Gamblers 5 and 15 minute trading system

  • #41
  • Mar 14, 2008 8:50am Mar 14, 2008 8:50am
Quoting Gambler180
Here is the system rules that I have used for the past few weeks.
Buy when a candle close above the last down bar in a downtrend
Sell when a candle close below the last up bar in an uptrend
Take profit when you have earned a few pips or when you get a signal to make an order in the opposite direction.
I have tested the system on EUR/USD 15 minute charts and it worked well. If the market is moving much up and down I recommend that you use a 5 minute chart instead
Below are some of the recent trades you could have made if you used this system.
Hello, How do you define direction of trend and predict it just for next 15 minuts? I dont no how does professional trader trade forex but I think there is no indicator that can analyse the market and clearly answer what we do for next and in my idea forex market is a game, too. there is lots of factor that move the market that nobody know it, perhaps I dont know. Do you know?
  • #42
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:02am Mar 14, 2008 9:02am
farid I think your question is valid but I would ask you this. have you ever noticed that there is usually a flurry of activity towards in the 1st 15min period after the hour and the last 15 min period in the hour? in addition, in each 15 min period beginning on the hour there is often a floury of activity towards the end of each period? It may be that a 'system' like this one effectively takes advantage of short term moves as a consequence of normal routine price action. off the cuff I would say that in strong trends and the extremes of the channel in a side ways market this system could well come into its own though as with most back tests the results can look dazzlingly effective retrospectively.
Quoting faridfx
Hello, How do you define direction of trend and predict it just for next 15 minuts? I dont no how does professional trader trade forex but I think there is no indicator that can analyse the market and clearly answer what we do for next and in my idea forex market is a game, too. there is lots of factor that move the market that nobody know it, perhaps I dont know. Do you know?
  • #43
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:28am Mar 14, 2008 9:28am
Gambler180,

I forward tested this om my demo account on the 4H TF.

I routinely watch 8 currency pairs. I had 4 pairs show entrance opportunities. I went long on the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and USD/JPY. I shorted the EUR/USD. The results are posted below.

Currency Entrance Exit Pips
EUR/JPY 156.76 157.60 84
GBP/JPY 204.38 205.19 81
USD/JPY 100.70 101.03 33
EUR/USD 155.62 155.38 24

Total Pips 222
  • #44
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:37am Mar 14, 2008 9:37am
Quoting rocwell
farid I think your question is valid but I would ask you this. have you ever noticed that there is usually a flurry of activity towards in the 1st 15min period after the hour and the last 15 min period in the hour? in addition, in each 15 min period beginning on the hour there is often a floury of activity towards the end of each period? .....
Hi, yes I do, but what do you want to say? how can we use previous key points of open, close, high & low for future? market is spot and when you study historical chart with emas that is nice to see wave movement crossing every thing is fantastic but WHAT CAN WE DO NOW? Is it correct time to entery or not?!! I wait to read your tips that it is in your mind..
  • #45
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:38am Mar 14, 2008 9:38am
Quoting Clansman
Gambler180,

I forward tested this om my demo account on the 4H TF.

I routinely watch 8 currency pairs. I had 4 pairs show entrance opportunities. I went long on the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and USD/JPY. I shorted the EUR/USD. The results are posted below.

Currency Entrance Exit Pips
EUR/JPY 156.76 157.60 84
GBP/JPY 204.38 205.19 81
USD/JPY 100.70 101.03 33
EUR/USD 155.62 155.38 24

Total Pips 222
Hey Clansman;keep us posted on your 4H tests please
  • #46
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:51am Mar 14, 2008 9:51am
why were none of these classed as trades

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/6...ivetiq7xo3.jpg
  • #47
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:56am Mar 14, 2008 9:56am
Quoting faridfx
Hello, How do you define direction of trend and predict it just for next 15 minuts? I dont no how does professional trader trade forex but I think there is no indicator that can analyse the market and clearly answer what we do for next and in my idea forex market is a game, too. there is lots of factor that move the market that nobody know it, perhaps I dont know. Do you know?
I use the entry rules to define a trend. If the entry rules say buy I consider the market to be trending up and if the entry rules say sell I consider the market to be trending down. I don't care about what the long term trend is.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #48
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:08am Mar 14, 2008 10:08am
Quoting Gambler180
I use the entry rules to define a trend. If the entry rules say buy I consider the market to be trending up and if the entry rules say sell I consider the market to be trending down. I don't care about what the long term trend is.
Some of them were valid entry signals but I just took the most recent. The three first are not signals according to my system because I don't trade the continuation signals which they are. I only trade when the trend reverse from buy to sell or the other way around. After the second line that you have drawn there is a little downtrend but I don't consider that as a trend because the prize is ranging within the body of that long up candle.

Edit: And the third red line you have drawn is not a valid entry because the prize is not moving enough. This system needs volatility to work.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #49
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:20am Mar 14, 2008 10:20am
This trade is a perfect example that the only indicator you need is candlesticks. If you had waited for the EMA and SMA to cross you would have missed this trade. Instead of missing ot I earned 13 pips

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2...vngivetib2.jpg
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #50
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:46am Mar 14, 2008 10:46am
Quoting Clansman
Gambler180,

I forward tested this om my demo account on the 4H TF.

I routinely watch 8 currency pairs. I had 4 pairs show entrance opportunities. I went long on the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and USD/JPY. I shorted the EUR/USD. The results are posted below.

Currency Entrance Exit Pips
EUR/JPY 156.76 157.60 84
GBP/JPY 204.38 205.19 81
USD/JPY 100.70 101.03 33
EUR/USD 155.62 155.38 24

Total Pips 222

good results!!!
when did you start??? is this just from today or the week??
  • #51
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:52am Mar 14, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Gambler180
Some of them were valid entry signals but I just took the most recent. The three first are not signals according to my system because I don't trade the continuation signals which they are. I only trade when the trend reverse from buy to sell or the other way around. After the second line that you have drawn there is a little downtrend but I don't consider that as a trend because the prize is ranging within the body of that long up candle.

Edit: And the third red line you have drawn is not a valid entry because the prize is not moving enough. This system needs volatility to work.
Gambler,
I've been following your system with great interest.
This answer muddies things up for me. It seems that your decision to enter or not enter a trade is subjective rather than based on a definite set of rules.
Whatever the case, good luck with it.
Thanks
  • #52
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:58am Mar 14, 2008 10:58am
Quoting billbss
Gambler,
I've been following your system with great interest.
This answer muddies things up for me. It seems that your decision to enter or not enter a trade is subjective rather than based on a definite set of rules.
Whatever the case, good luck with it.
Thanks
It is not subjective. I use the rules from post 1 but I only trade if there is some sort of volatility, it's for example not a good idea to trade the EUR/USD when both The European and the US session is closed. And I don't trade the small trends inside a big previous up or down candle.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #53
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:10am Mar 14, 2008 11:10am
HOWEVER - that being said, Gambler, when you say you don't pay attention to candle wicks you might want to take a serious look at changing from the usual candles and using Heiken Ashi Smooth candles instead.

Comparing candle charts it looks like the Heiken Ashi Smooth Candles gives a lot better indication of entry and exit points, giving you (and keeping) more pips per trade based on your strategy criteria.

There's a lot of info out there on Heiken Ashi Candles. I've used them exclusively for the past year with much better results in my trading.

I'm attaching an M4 Indicator to download in case anyone wants to check it out for further testing.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Heiken_Ashi_Smoothed.mq4   4 KB | 748 downloads
  • #54
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:19am Mar 14, 2008 11:19am
This shows both the regular candle patterns, and the same time period using Heiken Ashi Smooth.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: heik.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: heik2.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #55
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:31am Mar 14, 2008 11:31am
Quote
why were none of these classed as trades

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/6...ivetiq7xo3.jpg

I saw this thread this morning and wot really fascinate me about it is that i can scalp 30pips or thereabout when am waiting for my trade setup.

really, it involves some discretion and no system without one, I believe that trading has to suit your personality.

While i was eye balling GY and GU charts on five minutes(My prfer choice of currencies for this system bcos they move very well) when i enter a trade, i only get out when i see reversal candle.

there's something we should bear in mind, we can't achieve the same result.... for me 20sl is good for scalping
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #56
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:36am Mar 14, 2008 11:36am
Quoting Ksailer
good results!!!
when did you start??? is this just from today or the week??
The first three were entered yesterday at a little after noon EST, and I closed them within a couple of hours after opening. The last was this morning at a little after 0800 EST. It became apparent very quickly that the EUR was going to reverse after entering the trade this morning, so I grabbed what pips I could and got out.
  • #57
  • Mar 14, 2008 12:18pm Mar 14, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting Gambler180
This trade is a perfect example that the only indicator you need is candlesticks. If you had waited for the EMA and SMA to cross you would have missed this trade. Instead of missing ot I earned 13 pips

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/2...vngivetib2.jpg
Well it whipsawed 30 Pips against you after the sell signal occured. Risking 30 pips for getting 13 is not a good deal imho.
  • #58
  • Mar 14, 2008 12:26pm Mar 14, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting Tjpld
Well it whipsawed 30 Pips against you after the sell signal occured. Risking 30 pips for getting 13 is not a good deal imho.
But the candle didn't close above the opening prize of the candle that gave the signal.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #59
  • Mar 15, 2008 3:20am Mar 15, 2008 3:20am
i think with james16 thread candle formations this should work. i'll try.
  • #60
  • Mar 15, 2008 4:19am Mar 15, 2008 4:19am
Hi gambler!

I tried to develop a system similar to yours a couple of months ago, but on the daily and 4H timeframes.

I backtested different currencies for year 07 and 06. Some months were really nice and some were disaster. When the prices goes into sideways action, my demo bankaccount really dived . I started to look for different filters and tried all kinds of SL and TP, but couldn't really find the ultimate ratio.

Then my mind really asked me, wtf are you doing? Why complicate things? So I went back to what works for me, priceaction around obvious support and resistance lines.

But I really wish you good look with your system, and I'm going to be lurking in this thread to see your progress.

Dennis
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