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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,841
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:20am Mar 14, 2008 7:20am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hello Macalmd,

Where is your stop loss? is it at a level that if it gets hit, the amount lost from your account is acceptable to you? is it at a level that allows for normal market volatility in the time frame (4hr) that you are looking at? what is normal volatility?
Rebecca,x.
Hi Rebecca,
I think I am your truly fans. Because I always love reading your post which always give me surprise and special inspiration.
Rebecca, could you tell more thing about the normal volatility of pairs such as eurusd, cable? I would like to hear some expericed traders suggestion. Recently I also think this question about market normal breathe range and rhythm. Do you think the ATR is a good idea? Or you have other thought?
Look forward to your next great post.
Make pips and have a nice weekend.
Cheers
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,842
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:25am Mar 14, 2008 7:25am
Yesterday I took a trade on the JPY and GBP CTs because of evening/morning star (and MACD) signals. I had to put a massive stop because of the size of the previous candles. The trades worked out (+120 on GBP, -50 on JPY), but in reality it was an emotional trade that could have cost me lots of money.
I ignored the 8 EMAs, the huge SL requirement, and most importantly, the TREND.
Even though I made out ok, it feels like a loss because I let emotions, and not the system, influence my decisions.
  • #12,843
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:38am Mar 14, 2008 7:38am
Quoting macalmd
Well, I got so many regrets of "what if" regarding to exiting some trades: what if I exit early? what if I hold that position longer? My friends, do you somewhat have the same feelings, how did you deal with it?

Regards,
Macalmd
Dear Macalmd... You bring up a very important point here, THE WHAT IF'S OF TRADING".... Every trader expeirence it. The most diciplned once might get rid of it completely and trade with an empty mind with nothing coming in between them and the information on the charts ,while others i am sure suffer from it everyonce in a while. It is part of human nature. Are you wrong feeling this way, absolutely not. Should you do something about it ABSOLUTELY YES.

I know we all say one must have a solid plan and stick to the plan. this is said over and over agian so that there is no room for what if's. you have to have a mindset where you are sure of yourself and musk ask

"Am i in this trade for a few pips ( have a trend line, MA or fixed number of pips in mind) OR
" am i going to take partial profit wit a certain amount of my position and let the rest run at BE or a Trailing stop"
Now if some of your position is in the green according to your plan and the rest was taken out at Break even, and after taking your stop out at break even price turns around and moves a 100 pips in the original direction. what do you think. hmmm " WHAT IF i had placed my stop 10 pips below i would still be in the trade.look where the price has gone now, this sucks. is some one actually watching my trade , how did they know where my stop is" and that is usually accompanied by some profanities that one yells at the screen. oh well may be not .
i have made this mistake quite often of moving my stop if i see the trade going against me only to suffer a bigger loss.

The point is that the "What IF" can haunt you in every trade. you must write down your plan eactly how you would execute it. and if market conditions change drastically bec of some surprise news like the fed one recently then write in your plan that " if there is a change of scenario then i will do this" and have an idea in your head what change of scenario is. not just a few pips up and down.Like Rebecca mention about breathing up and down.

So to answer your question shortly. Yes we all go through the What if.. but it should not be part of the trading plan. because it will never let you succeed.
Hope this helps.
Nadia.

P.S. now if only i can follow my own posts i can be much more successful,
but there is a difference between knowing and actually implementing. but i am taking one step at a time and getting closer to my goal every day,
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,844
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:47am Mar 14, 2008 7:47am
Quoting ira
Hi Mike! I think you are going through a difficult stage now, actually you are at the point where some people quit our thread. Maybe I can help? I too had times when I felt anger with myself and the thread. I took nice trades, to my mind of course, but people here always found arguments why I shouldn't have taken it. And I thought to myself too, it's easy to look back and comment. Sometimes I also had an idea that people posting here only winnig trades, while I was posting only losses.
Quoting ira
Looking back I can say, although it was one of the hardest periods I had on Forex, full of pain and frustration, it was the most productive period, and I HAVE LEARNED SO MUCH!!!!!!!!!! It took me 9 month to have a shift in my trading. Since December I started to trade consistently, although it is demo, but for the first time I see a light at the end of the tunnel and very pleased with myself. I still do mistakes, but I feel very, very confident with the system, and that is such a pleasant feeling. I also feel that I become one of those people who pointed to my mistake earlier, I see where and why people make mistakes, and why even good set up, to their mind of course didn't work. So, that was not a trick, that was - EXPERIENCE. After trading Phillip's system for so long, in most of the cases I feel, or I know where is good setup and where is not.
Guy and girls, you really have to pass through this hard period to gain experience, nobody can do that for you. I had a period when it was written in my trading journal - hay stupid maybe it's enough to take CT trades!!! After fifth such sign I stopped taking them, when I was fed up with that pain. Phillip, I or someone else can't help you to learn from your mistakes! Do it yourself.

Go through this period in a positive way, put hard work, think positivly and you will be well rewarded!


Great post Ira, Learning this great strategy by Master Phillip is half of the battle. and handling yourself as a trader is the second half,,,, which i am still going through now.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,845
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:56am Mar 14, 2008 7:56am
luckytiger, ira, Bag Lady: Nice posts.

About posting live trades:

I had a long talk with pips4uandme about this and I think luckytiger just mentioned the same theme. When someone else posts a live trade it's very easy to get influenced by that post and follow along and just blindly pull the trigger. You can get really complacent if you just follow others posts for trades and just do what they do without any work on your part. Posting trades is strictly voluntary, on anyone's part, even on the forum here or on the TradeBlog. Nobody is obligated to post anything really. But, if you had 50 people blindly follow one person's trade post my guess is you might have 50 different trade results. There are rules for profits targets and stops with this method per entry but some of us might be a little more generous or strict with both of those so where someone might have gotten stopped out by 10 pips, someone else might still be in positive because they used a larger stop.

I don't know where/why the negativity comes from about posting live trades but for some reason there is always someone, in every trade method posted here on the FF, that just had to be negative about it all. They either have not put the time in to learning the method, or any method for that matter, or that's just the type of person they are. So, I just chose to ignore all those posts and PM's.

My trading/posts this week has been minimal. Many many busy at work and because I thought the Fed was meeting this week about the interest rate decision, my mindset over the past weekend was to keep trading on the back burner. I forgot who corrected me on that one but once I have my plan for the week in place, it's hard to go back on that one. Especially if I'm ripping up carpet and installing new flooring during the week also Yes, doing it myself, kinda stubborn about that sort of stuff. If I can do it, why pay someone else? Anyway, I'll have to regroup for next week.

For saka:

For the EU that I'm long from 2/20 and how I'm playing this one:

I have an up-channel drawn with three lines. Top/Middle/Bottom that all hit significant points along this bull trend. I'm moving the stop up below the middle uptrend line that is below the 21. My mentality is to let the rhythm of the market take me out. If we close below the 21 (a few times in a row), which has not happened in a long time, I'll see this as a significant event. I'll give price room to breathe in the event that the market returns back to the 21 (but closes above it and returns to the 4hr uptrend) so I'll still be in long. If the market returns to the 21, and is rejected by the 21 and slides down (per the method), that middle trendline is my exit area. When the party is over, the party is over. My current stop is at 5307 so that 650 pips locked in. I'll move the stop up later today closer to the middle trendline but still below it.

In a nutshell, that's about it...
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  • #12,846
  • Edited 8:25am Mar 14, 2008 8:06am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting BIL2205
So to answer your question shortly. Yes we all go through the What if.. but it should not be part of the trading plan. because it will never let you succeed.
Hope this helps.
Nadia.

P.S. now if only i can follow my own posts i can be much more successful,
but there is a difference between knowing and actually implementing. but i am taking one step at a time and getting closer to my goal every day,
Hi Nadia,
Great post about the importance of the trade plan. What you and Rebecca said is what I am confusing sometimes.
From now, I will write down my every trade plan and stick to it. Because I understand them are the required to the consistent success.
Thank you. Have a nice weekend.
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,847
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:26am Mar 14, 2008 9:26am
Hi,

the word "thread" doesnt do this particular part of the forum justice- not only is the strategy first rate but the sense of mutual support and community is fantastic

Forex trading is an arena- and I for one could do with all the help I can get!

Thanks to all- have a great weekend

regards

Mark
  • #12,848
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:37am Mar 14, 2008 9:37am
Did anyone take the long TC on the 1H?? I didnt I didnt think it was clear enough we were going to get support here and so didn't take it. Both would have been good although G/U would have had a large stop so I probably would have not taken that anyway.
  • #12,849
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:43am Mar 14, 2008 9:43am
Quoting Hookem28
Yesterday I took a trade on the JPY and GBP CTs because of evening/morning star (and MACD) signals. I had to put a massive stop because of the size of the previous candles. The trades worked out (+120 on GBP, -50 on JPY), but in reality it was an emotional trade that could have cost me lots of money.
I ignored the 8 EMAs, the huge SL requirement, and most importantly, the TREND.
Even though I made out ok, it feels like a loss because I let emotions, and not the system, influence my decisions.
Hookem: thanks for posting your feelings about your trades. I think we've all been victims of the shiny 'come & get me' impulse trades!! If all that got burned was your conscience, then there was no real damage done because the lesson has still been learned. Emotion is the hardest thing to conquer, that's why I write a plan first. It's harder to do an impulse trade when your plan is staring up at you from the desk! If the market moves before the plan is finished, let it go. There'll be another chance another time.

Aihua: I shall work out an answer to your question about normal volatility over the weekend. Probably post it as an attachment in a word doc as it may be too long for the thread. I know I always seem to ramble on, but an answer to that question would be even too much for my normal post size!! In the meantime, Palmer's post about his Euro trade covers normal volatility really well. He's far, far more experienced than me and his strategy of using the 21ema to gauge price action is 'breathing' in practice. Quite beautiful to see his charts and how he moves with the rhythm.

Ira: it's been said several times already, great post!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,850
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:50am Mar 14, 2008 9:50am
Quoting brettboz
Did anyone take the long TC on the 1H?? I didnt I didnt think it was clear enough we were going to get support here and so didn't take it. Both would have been good although G/U would have had a large stop so I probably would have not taken that anyway.
Are you referring to the EU here?

I've go the 1hr trying to get out of the channel and the 4hr at the top of the uptrend line. A break/close to the upside might be more room to the upside. What concerns me is that it's Friday and the major players might take some off the top before the weekend and this could bring price back down. I might just sit back....
Attached Image
  • #12,851
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:56am Mar 14, 2008 9:56am
Quoting brettboz
Did anyone take the long TC on the 1H?? I didnt I didnt think it was clear enough we were going to get support here and so didn't take it. Both would have been good although G/U would have had a large stop so I probably would have not taken that anyway.
I am out until next week. Have a great weekend, never regret trades missed, plenty more where they came from!

See you next week,
Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,852
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:57am Mar 14, 2008 9:57am
Quoting Palmer
Are you referring to the EU here?

I've go the 1hr trying to get out of the channel and the 4hr at the top of the uptrend line. A break/close to the upside might be more room to the upside. What concerns me is that it's Friday and the major players might take some off the top before the weekend and this could bring price back down. I might just sit back....
Yes I didnt get in either, but there was hammer followed by a doji and the MACD gave a nice rounded bottom. This move caused the 4H to create a TC but its not really off the 8 or 21 its kind of in the middle. I did manage to draw a trendline back and make some sense of the support level but just lately I seem to be able to invent supporting trend lines all over the place...

I would have got out already had I taken it, which as I say I didnt and yes Friday afternoon dangerous time to be getting in.
  • #12,853
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:02am Mar 14, 2008 10:02am
Quoting brettboz
Yes I didnt get in either, but there was hammer followed by a doji and the MACD gave a nice rounded bottom. This move caused the 4H to create a TC but its not really off the 8 or 21 its kind of in the middle. I did manage to draw a trendline back and make some sense of the support level but just lately I seem to be able to invent supporting trend lines all over the place...

I would have got out already had I taken it, which as I say I didnt and yes Friday afternoon dangerous time to be getting in.
Sorry I meant a hammer then a spinner on 1H not doji...
  • #12,854
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:15am Mar 14, 2008 10:15am
Quoting brettboz
Yes I didnt get in either, but there was hammer followed by a doji and the MACD gave a nice rounded bottom. This move caused the 4H to create a TC but its not really off the 8 or 21 its kind of in the middle. I did manage to draw a trendline back and make some sense of the support level but just lately I seem to be able to invent supporting trend lines all over the place...

I would have got out already had I taken it, which as I say I didnt and yes Friday afternoon dangerous time to be getting in.
Yes, too many trendlines can blur you vision.

How quickly things can change....
Attached Image
  • #12,855
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:21am Mar 14, 2008 10:21am
Quoting BIL2205
you have to have a mindset where you are sure of yourself and musk ask

"Am i in this trade for a few pips ( have a trend line, MA or fixed number of pips in mind) OR
" am i going to take partial profit wit a certain amount of my position and let the rest run at BE or a Trailing stop"

The point is that the "What IF" can haunt you in every trade. you must write down your plan eactly how you would execute it. and if market conditions change drastically bec of some surprise news like the fed one recently then write in your plan that " if there is a change of scenario then i will do this" and have an idea in your head what change of scenario is. not just a few pips up and down.Like Rebecca mention about breathing up and down.

So to answer your question shortly. Yes we all go through the What if.. but it should not be part of the trading plan. because it will never let you succeed.
Hope this helps.
Nadia.

P.S. now if only i can follow my own posts i can be much more successful,
but there is a difference between knowing and actually implementing. but i am taking one step at a time and getting closer to my goal every day,

That is the most interesting point applying to every business
Hi, Nadia, Thanks for the thorough analysis and explanation. I pay a little price to the market, but I got more valuable advices here.
Yes, to have enough reasons to make a trade and keep disciplined is very important. I guess most of the novices like me are day-traders, who tend to over trade and can not resist the tempting CT trade, but market does not give us as many chances as we want. If I can write down the reasons for every trade, I think I can cut off at least half of my orders, and leave the ones with the high probability to win. Within a good trade and clear profitting target, I may spend more time to watch the rythem of the market instead of couting the money we lose and win and getting nervous.

Thank you again, have a nice weekend.
Macalmd

"what if I can write down a trade plan in detail"
  • #12,856
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:28am Mar 14, 2008 10:28am
the murrey math +1/8 line on EURUSD 1H is 1.5686
the murrey math -1/8 line on USDJPY 1H is 99.60

it is interesting that both currencies reversed exactly at these levels
  • #12,857
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:30am Mar 14, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Palmer
For saka:

For the EU that I'm long from 2/20 and how I'm playing this one:

I have an up-channel drawn with three lines. Top/Middle/Bottom that all hit significant points along this bull trend. I'm moving the stop up below the middle uptrend line that is below the 21. My mentality is to let the rhythm of the market take me out. If we close below the 21 (a few times in a row), which has not happened in a long time, I'll see this as a significant event. I'll give price room to breathe in the event that the market returns back to the 21 (but closes above it and returns to the 4hr uptrend) so I'll still be in long. If the market returns to the 21, and is rejected by the 21 and slides down (per the method), that middle trendline is my exit area. When the party is over, the party is over. My current stop is at 5307 so that 650 pips locked in. I'll move the stop up later today closer to the middle trendline but still below it.

In a nutshell, that's about it...
Good job Palmer, I have something to say, hope Philip come to see the chart below

See that 55ema? I think lots of people forget about it. This is Philip's a new ma which is used as a track sl. I find that ma is equal to your mid-line, it is a little below the 21ema, give price room to pierce 21ema but go back quickly. So you still can hold your position

But see that 55ema is nearly 250 pips to the price right now. It means that your postion must got sl with nealy more than 200 pips, this is really a waste. It is absolutely good to cut some lots at high. We have a good tool to make as much profit as possible, but still not perfect.

During my trade experience, I think that there are two purposes when trade FX, one is do not lose, the other is take as much profit in a good trade as possible! Plamer, you are my example!
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #12,858
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:36am Mar 14, 2008 10:36am
Quoting brettboz
Where did you put your stop initially? I saw this trade but didn't take it because I couldn't decide where I wanted to put my stop and the only place that seemed good to me gave too much risk.
I put my stop in relation with the previous one HR candle and that is round about 605. I took partial profit at 20 pips and let the rest at BE. Did you see what the price did then whent long along way. I like to take profit if it is for the taking,because the price can turn around aggressively as we have seen. And the trend is your frend so we can only go down to the 21 4HR.
  • #12,859
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:32am Mar 14, 2008 11:32am
Thanks to everyone for your posts, I feel myself in company of very good friends who will always support me. Have a wonderful weekend!

Good luck, Ira
  • #12,860
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:37am Mar 14, 2008 11:37am
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