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- #12,804
- Edited 8:27am Mar 13, 2008 8:17am | Edited 8:27am
Completely agree with Hookem28 - trying to pick up tops now is a suicide.
Looking back on EUR this week I think about traders flexibility. Not once I read that trader must belive in unbelievable. Personally I missed two good TC signals on EUR this week, I thought that it's oversold, it's at its high, it's time for correction... I guess everyone wants it to come down, but it keeps coming up. That's where professionalism comes into play, who knows maybe we will see EUR 2.0000. Let's not try to fight the trend.
This is a very crucial time for us as novice traders. it is very tempting to go short,OR , get in the trend at this point. but unless there is a clear set up there is no need. just because price touched a trendline does not mean there is a correction, i have listen to the video phillip attatch ( well half of it) and the info on that is price less. it needs to be watched over and over again. there are so many tempting traps in the market when we jump in only to be taken out and getting burned . It is like we wait and wait for price to reverse and then when we get frustrated we decide to finally go with the trend and then what happens price turns around and takes us out, what we need to understand is that there are 100's and thousands of trader sitting infront of the chart with the same info and mind set and experience ( or not much experience). so it is easy to get carried away{ like i am with this post hehehe}. I also miss the long entry on euro but then let it go bec i feel i dont have enough experience to handle the pair in unchartered territory so i settle with phillip;s 5minute for this time and watch the 4 hour from the side lines. Instead of getting frustrated itis better to be proactive and absorb the way price has moved... and watch the video agian... did i mention watch the video again. If you see a round top or double top so does the BIg Boyz ,, is it really time for a reversal or cerrection.... hmmmm ... most will jump the gun and go short but then what price might just consolidate and resume its up trend. that is why phillip streses on being conservative with profit taking and trade management. Also like she said. The odds of trend continuation are more than that of reversal so why fight the trend. i think i lost my own chain of thought here.
.. but bottom line is that it is important to trade what we see not what we want to see. Trade well and pip Plenty
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
- #12,807
- Mar 13, 2008 9:42am Mar 13, 2008 9:42am
Hey Ira, totally agree,
This is a very crucial time for us as novice traders. it is very tempting to go short,OR , get in the trend at this point. but unless there is a clear set up there is no need. just because price touched a trendline does not mean there is a correction, i have listen to the video phillip attatch ( well half of it) and the info on that is price less. it needs to be watched over and over again. there are so many tempting traps in the market when we jump in only to be taken out and getting burned . It is like we wait and wait for price to reverse and then when we get frustrated we decide to finally go with the trend and then what happens price turns around and takes us out, what we need to understand is that there are 100's and thousands of trader sitting infront of the chart with the same info and mind set and experience ( or not much experience). so it is easy to get carried away{ like i am with this post hehehe}. I also miss the long entry on euro but then let it go bec i feel i dont have enough experience to handle the pair in unchartered territory so i settle with phillip;s 5minute for this time and watch the 4 hour from the side lines. Instead of getting frustrated itis better to be proactive and absorb the way price has moved... and watch the video agian... did i mention watch the video again. If you see a round top or double top so does the BIg Boyz ,, is it really time for a reversal or cerrection.... hmmmm ... most will jump the gun and go short but then what price might just consolidate and resume its up trend. that is why phillip streses on being conservative with profit taking and trade management. Also like she said. The odds of trend continuation are more than that of reversal so why fight the trend. i think i lost my own chain of thought here.
Hi Bil,
I agree with you hence my waiting on the sidelines trying to avoid itchy fingers- as for an opportunity to go with the trend which is what I think most of us are looking for at the moment , if I have understood Philip's system it could lead to the suggestion:
1) there is a strong bull trend that is carrying price forward
2) there is a trendline that has held previously
3 market rhythm would suggest a pause in the up trend is going to come at some point
If it carries on up- those already in clap their hands, those on the sidelines wait and dont jump in
If it falls, then again we wait until there is some sign of the fall being broken by a MA.
If the fall is broken by a MA then we look at everything else for confirmation - the candlesticks/fib levels and finally the MACD to see if the set up is right to get in, only then do we pull the trigger.
If the MAs dont break the fall and it carries on falling then perhaps we conclude the market is out of rhythm and we wait until such time that we see it resume.
I hope this makes some sense
regards
Mark
- #12,808
- Edited 10:15am Mar 13, 2008 10:07am | Edited 10:15am
Hi, well pretty much it depends on how price is acting around the moving averages,
If one wants to do a counter trend first target is 8 ema. that is high risk and should be done if R;R is begging you to take it. A pause or corection at some point is inevitible. like in the video she said that time needs to catch up with the price , if price had moved up too fast. hence the consolidation phase. how do we recognize it.. we see the price winding around the 8 and 21 ema not sure where to go . making it look like it is time for the correction or continuation,... may be or maybe not. the clear indication that price might be ready to take a correction down to 89 is when it clearly comes below the 21 pulls back to it( or smewhat above it ) and then moves away down to 89. at that point you look at the MACD and most of the time you will see a zero break, pull back to zero line, ( round bottom) and then a TC down.
that is a good set up but again at that point candle formation is important. did the price take smooth baby steps or huge tails with indecision.or a big candle which was a result of a temporary news break. so basically everything has to fall into place. before you can pull the trigger.
I really like the fact that you put into consideration all the important factors. i dont know how long you have been trading but you are on the right track. it can get frustrating because you think you are making it too complicated but in realty with time these will be second nature to you and you will be able to tell if the market is smooth or in turmoil just by looking at the chart right away.Complication for me is to have 10 diff indicators on a chart and waiting for them to fall into place to pull the trigger. what you are learning is price action, market rhythm and candle emotion. which are the main arteries of the heart of this system.
I THINK I HAD TOO MUCH COFFEE TODAY.
:!!!
anyways, i hope you guys dont mind my long post , they are always open for critisism, putting thoughts into words helps me put things in perspective as well. thank you agian.
Nadia.
If one wants to do a counter trend first target is 8 ema. that is high risk and should be done if R;R is begging you to take it. A pause or corection at some point is inevitible. like in the video she said that time needs to catch up with the price , if price had moved up too fast. hence the consolidation phase. how do we recognize it.. we see the price winding around the 8 and 21 ema not sure where to go . making it look like it is time for the correction or continuation,... may be or maybe not. the clear indication that price might be ready to take a correction down to 89 is when it clearly comes below the 21 pulls back to it( or smewhat above it ) and then moves away down to 89. at that point you look at the MACD and most of the time you will see a zero break, pull back to zero line, ( round bottom) and then a TC down.
that is a good set up but again at that point candle formation is important. did the price take smooth baby steps or huge tails with indecision.or a big candle which was a result of a temporary news break. so basically everything has to fall into place. before you can pull the trigger.
I really like the fact that you put into consideration all the important factors. i dont know how long you have been trading but you are on the right track. it can get frustrating because you think you are making it too complicated but in realty with time these will be second nature to you and you will be able to tell if the market is smooth or in turmoil just by looking at the chart right away.Complication for me is to have 10 diff indicators on a chart and waiting for them to fall into place to pull the trigger. what you are learning is price action, market rhythm and candle emotion. which are the main arteries of the heart of this system.
I THINK I HAD TOO MUCH COFFEE TODAY.
:!!!anyways, i hope you guys dont mind my long post , they are always open for critisism, putting thoughts into words helps me put things in perspective as well. thank you agian.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
- #12,815
- Mar 13, 2008 11:33am Mar 13, 2008 11:33am
Yeah it is no fun watching the dollar go down like this,& whats hurting the most is rising Gas prices which in turn effects everything to be more expensive. Hopefully there will be some stability in the economy soon.
