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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #9,521
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:56am Mar 12, 2008 7:56am
Anyone else short euro/usd?

There was large size on the offer as it hit 1.5500 and it came off 20 pips or so. Then it had another go and there was, once again, a lot of size defending the level.

I'm short 2 lots at 1.5489.

There was a nice pin bar on the 15m that I saw after the event...
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  • #9,522
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:33am Mar 12, 2008 8:33am
Quoting the_wizard
Anyone else short euro/usd?

There was large size on the offer as it hit 1.5500 and it came off 20 pips or so. Then it had another go and there was, once again, a lot of size defending the level.

I'm short 2 lots at 1.5489.

There was a nice pin bar on the 15m that I saw after the event...
...pin bars just been taken out! How high can it go?!
  • #9,523
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:37am Mar 12, 2008 8:37am
Quoting the_wizard
Anyone else short euro/usd?

There was large size on the offer as it hit 1.5500 and it came off 20 pips or so. Then it had another go and there was, once again, a lot of size defending the level.

I'm short 2 lots at 1.5489.

There was a nice pin bar on the 15m that I saw after the event...
If EURUSD moves up 1000+ pips(1.4440-1.5500) and comes off a handful at each resistance/round number, why take the handfuls instead of the hundreds/thousands?

I don't understand that approach at all.

I also don't feel USD weakness is over if next week is to see another 50-75 bps cut and the market tends to pre-empt / anticipate rather than react, so I bet as long as that is still on the plate(and further cuts are not by official statement ruled out) then I suspect everyone will not be overly eager to buy USD.

I remember the time well when I'd had shorted a run up on cable early in my trading "career", several times over, always at the top, for almost 1000 pips progression upwards as well.
I kept getting screwed on my trades as price simply pushed on and on and on.
In the end I had lost a bundle, looked at the chart again, saw an almost linear rise and asked myself: "good god, why didn't I just BUY?" and felt rather stupid for quite a while.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #9,524
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:41am Mar 12, 2008 8:41am
Quoting eltrot1979
...pin bars just been taken out! How high can it go?!
put it this way, people said the same thing when it hit 1.3......

Just let the charts guide you


Wiz good to see you around bud


Mike
  • #9,525
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:43am Mar 12, 2008 8:43am
Quoting eltrot1979
...pin bars just been taken out! How high can it go?!
LOL no idea but it's a pretty wild ride. I scratched that 2 lot for breakeven and have sold another 2 at 155.00.
  • #9,526
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:48am Mar 12, 2008 8:48am
Quoting SeekingLight
If EURUSD moves up 1000+ pips(1.4440-1.5500) and comes off a handful at each resistance/round number, why take the handfuls instead of the hundreds/thousands?

I don't understand that approach at all.
I'm with you Seeking - I much prefer playing for the large move but when you trade for a firm you have to have tight stops to cut risk to a minimum. That makes 1hr and daily pin bars a no go.

So I trade a compromise. I can go short at a round number or a key S/R pivot and if I am wrong and it goes through I can get out immediately. At the same time, if the level holds and my position goes onside then I can have the patience to hold it and see if it develops into a longer move. Take euro/usd. I have sold it now at 1.5500. It has moved down to 154.90. I can put in a stop at breakeven. All I lose is a minimal amount of commission if I am wrong. If I am right and it falls further and forms an hourly pin then I can use my knowledge of J16's excellent strategy to stay short and hold it for a possible longer term move.
  • #9,527
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:50am Mar 12, 2008 8:50am
Quoting mbqb11
put it this way, people said the same thing when it hit 1.3......

Just let the charts guide you


Wiz good to see you around bud


Mike
Hey dude - good to be back!
  • #9,528
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:01am Mar 12, 2008 9:01am
That is the thing about seeing the bids and offers it is very useful when you come into one of J16's key pivot levels.

Before I worked for a firm I had no idea that the level would hold until I saw a pin bar off it and then I knew it had a higher probability of reversing at that price. But now I can see how all the market players are positioning themselves.

On average you have around 80 contracts on the bid or offer for the euro so if I see 250 suddenly offered at 1.5500 I know that the market might come off because there is size coming in that will take out a few of the bids and push it down a few pips.

This, combined with the 1 pip stop, gives those in the direct market an edge. It's not 100% reliable because people spoof their size - much like bluffing in poker - but it is a good indicator.

Anyway, I know this thread is about price action but it is a good thing to know a little bit about market mechanisms.

I can see now how easy it is to do things like hunt stops. Often you don't even need to buy anything. If you stick some huge size on the bid as it trades into a key level then other traders will get infront of you because they know if your size is hit the market will move up. That way, they do the work for you. They push the market higher and then if you pull your order out they have to cover their longs because suddenly there is no size to sell their positions back too.

All the traders with stops just above the level just got screwed over and all from a good bluff.
  • #9,529
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:05am Mar 12, 2008 9:05am
Quoting the_wizard
That is the thing about seeing the bids and offers it is very useful when you come into one of J16's key pivot levels.

Before I worked for a firm I had no idea that the level would hold until I saw a pin bar off it and then I knew it had a higher probability of reversing at that price. But now I can see how all the market players are positioning themselves.

On average you have around 80 contracts on the bid or offer for the euro so if I see 250 suddenly offered at 1.5500 I know that the market might come off because there is size coming in that will take out a few of the bids and push it down a few pips.

This, combined with the 1 pip stop, gives those in the direct market an edge. It's not 100% reliable because people spoof their size - much like bluffing in poker - but it is a good indicator.

Anyway, I know this thread is about price action but it is a good thing to know a little bit about market mechanisms.

I can see now how easy it is to do things like hunt stops. Often you don't even need to buy anything. If you stick some huge size on the bid then other traders will get infront of you because they know if your size is hit the market will move. That way, they do the work for you. They push the market to a key level and then you pull your order out and they have to cover their longs. All the amateurs just got screwed over and all from a good bluff.
- yeah most large orders are iceberged but good information none the less
  • #9,530
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:16am Mar 12, 2008 9:16am
Quoting mbqb11
- yeah most large orders are iceberged but good information none the less
That is true but there are from time to time the traders that just react emotionally and hit the bids or offers so that they can get in and don't miss the move.
  • #9,531
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:58am Mar 12, 2008 9:58am
Great, now the only thing left missing for me is actually being able to see all the stuff that's being talked about

Only thing I know is iceberg salad..
*feels left out*

Can't we just go back to chanting "Dive DJI, dive!"?

I finally want to see a resolution in all this mess..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #9,532
  • Mar 12, 2008 10:21am Mar 12, 2008 10:21am
Quoting SeekingLight

I finally want to see a resolution in all this mess..
There is no resolution my friend, that is the only resolution there is .

How do we get the order flows, or should i say how much do we need to get them?

SS
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #9,533
  • Mar 12, 2008 10:42am Mar 12, 2008 10:42am
Quoting Swami S
..

How do we get the order flows, or should i say how much do we need to get them?

SS
We don't ,... they're only good for sis...s ... and 10pip scalpers .

(4950)
  • #9,534
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:07am Mar 12, 2008 11:07am
Quoting SeekingLight
Only thing I know is iceberg salad..
*feels left out*
An iceburg is just where a single large order has been divided into much smaller orders by the use of an automated program. That way the public only sees the small parts - the "tip of the iceburg" and doesn't know they all come from the same source. As a result the trader gets to effectively hide what they are doing.
  • #9,535
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:11am Mar 12, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Swami S
There is no resolution my friend, that is the only resolution there is .

How do we get the order flows, or should i say how much do we need to get them?

SS
Can't wait to have Level 2 currency information available to me.

LOL.

...well it's not a one way ticket to making money, but it can make some situations easier to decide on and give you access to new strategies.

It can also trap you though if you're expecting ALL offers/bids to be in the system waiting already. But that's not the case.

I've gotten eaten on my trades tonight too! :
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #9,536
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:13am Mar 12, 2008 11:13am
weekly & daily,12 march trendline test ...... what kind af PA you guys expect in this area ?
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  • #9,537
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:15am Mar 12, 2008 11:15am
just got through while i was writing !
  • #9,538
  • Mar 12, 2008 2:25pm Mar 12, 2008 2:25pm
Hi Guisepp,
On the daily chart there is a h&s forming with the left shoulder at about 2.06.
I think it will go to that level and then turn down.
Does anyone else agree.
Rgds
Stew
  • #9,539
  • Mar 12, 2008 2:50pm Mar 12, 2008 2:50pm
hi

The 365 EMA keeps cropping up in this thread, so I'm assuming it is one of the better MAs to use with price action, can someone be kind enough to explain this in a bit more depth?

Thanks
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #9,540
  • Mar 12, 2008 2:58pm Mar 12, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
hi

The 365 EMA keeps cropping up in this thread, so I'm assuming it is one of the better MAs to use with price action, can someone be kind enough to explain this in a bit more depth?

Thanks
This is an EMA james recommends. He said he learned it long ago and he ALWAYS has it on his charts along with the 150 ema.

The idea is to look for PA or pure touches at these EMAs along with other confluence

Mike
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