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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,321
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:31pm Jan 17, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting 59fender
not so fast
59fender, are you referring to the price should
not move so fast? I sent the message out after
the price hit the 38.2% Fib line.
  • #2,322
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:31pm Jan 17, 2007 1:31pm
bid at 9680 or the 50 fib.... still looking short.
  • #2,323
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:32pm Jan 17, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting ghitz
so far, and with 30 minutes to go before (at least my 4 hour bar) closes, it needs to jump up 50 pips from current price 9682, to suggest break is not rejected.

g
one more wave up
  • #2,324
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:33pm Jan 17, 2007 1:33pm
My 1 hour chart says enter a long last night at 96.06 (59er) and exit this morning. Nothing fancy
Attached Image
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #2,325
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:35pm Jan 17, 2007 1:35pm
Quoting wpbsyn
59fender, are you referring to the price should
not move so fast? I sent the message out after
the price hit the 38.2% Fib line.
just be careful that's all
  • #2,326
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:36pm Jan 17, 2007 1:36pm
Quoting ghitz
Not that I disagree with what you are saying, but attached is a file on pitchforks.

article is good, but the best part is price action at trendlines. have a look, see action, and decide if the trend is broken. starts on page 15.

IMHO, you need a daily close and open above that daily trendline to say it is broken, then again, its only an opinion.

g
Thanks for that ghitz. The CBOT website is an excellent resource for traders. What pivots would you use to draw a pitchfork on the current cable charts? With the ones I drew the upper line has already been broken.
Attached Image
  • #2,327
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:39pm Jan 17, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting notouch
Thanks for that ghitz. The CBOT website is an excellent resource for traders. What pivots would you use to draw a pitchfork on the current cable charts? With the ones I drew the upper line has already been broken.
the live pitchfork is an uptrend

low 9265, next 9450, next 9315.

draw trendline from 9265 to 9315. that is a trigger line. when that is broken, you have an invalid fork

have to go, will post chart later.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #2,328
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:40pm Jan 17, 2007 1:40pm
Quoting ghitz
so far, and with 30 minutes to go before (at least my 4 hour bar) closes, it needs to jump up 50 pips from current price 9682, to suggest break is not rejected.

g
Agreed ghitz... I dumped lots at 23 fib and 38 fib. Let one for the ride now.

Fibs on today's moves are
9694 - reached
9677 - touched
9663 - long time no see - former resistance

Getting down to 9460s will demand breaking 9606. And we're now at the center of 9750 - 9606.

Tomorrow is all about a second assault to 9720s (or not) or negotiations with supports below....

But I agree that the overall trend is up. Trading downwards to 9460 became "scalping"
  • #2,329
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:40pm Jan 17, 2007 1:40pm
beige book says growth, which means no rate cut, maybe a hike with data today out on inflation. my guess, dollar stronger which means downward movement, but hwere is the first stop??
  • #2,330
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:41pm Jan 17, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting summitfx
My 1 hour chart says enter a long last night at 96.06 (59er) and exit this morning. Nothing fancy
looks like we're setting up for a short to 1.9483 from that chart, you heard it here first
  • #2,331
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:45pm Jan 17, 2007 1:45pm
One thing I feel fairly confident about is that the GU will most likely visit the Pivot Line at 96.32 sometime during the next 12 hours but I'm not betting on it.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #2,332
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:46pm Jan 17, 2007 1:46pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
That's it.... 9460 is the target Cesarnc sees and I think he may be right. Each time cable hit that upper trend line on your chart, notice how it fell like 200 pips. That's the same trendline hit and briefly broken today.
U r right. always fell.

MM, I add 11.8 and 81 in my fib is that okey ? and suddenly i realise that 11.8 is on 9726, strong point i think.

btw 11.8 is 50% from 0 to 23.6.
81 is 50% from 61.8 to 100. ( should 80.9)
is that okey to place number like that... , i just love 50%.

oh my target is 9295, long way to go....oh crap again.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,333
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:49pm Jan 17, 2007 1:49pm
Huh?

Quoting notme32
U r right. always fell.

MM, I add 11.8 and 81 in my fib is that okey ? and suddenly i realise that 11.8 is on 9726, strong point i think.

btw 11.8 is 50% from 0 to 23.6.
81 is 50% from 61.8 to 100. ( should 80.9)
is that okey to place number like that... , i just love 50%.

oh my target is 9295, long way to go....oh crap again.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #2,334
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:51pm Jan 17, 2007 1:51pm
Monarch's in the building.... Comments are welcome...

But i gotta go to the f$*@* supermarket or my wife will rip my lungs off...
  • #2,335
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:51pm Jan 17, 2007 1:51pm
most of USD events result were positive and i think soon we should waiting for great fall
  • #2,336
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:53pm Jan 17, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting mtrmth
beige book says growth, which means no rate cut, maybe a hike with data today out on inflation. my guess, dollar stronger which means downward movement, but hwere is the first stop??
Mid-term, over the next several days, I'm sticking with the 38 fib target, price 9460. Everyone now seems to think cable will continue long and it may do so overnight. I see it bouncing off the trendline (breached earlier) and going short, just as it did on Jan 3, 2007 when prices hit 9750 and retreated to 9300 by Jan 5th.
  • #2,337
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:55pm Jan 17, 2007 1:55pm
Quoting ghitz
the live pitchfork is an uptrend

low 9265, next 9450, next 9315.

draw trendline from 9265 to 9315. that is a trigger line. when that is broken, you have an invalid fork

have to go, will post chart later.

g
Looks clearer on the hourlies. I see your point but the theory is that the median line will be tested 80% of the time - which what we're seeing right now. From here it could go down to the lower line or up to the upper line.
Attached Image
  • #2,338
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:57pm Jan 17, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting notouch
Thanks for that ghitz. The CBOT website is an excellent resource for traders. What pivots would you use to draw a pitchfork on the current cable charts? With the ones I drew the upper line has already been broken.
no worries,

i dont see a pitchfork where you want to draw yours.

see this chart. current pitfchfork at work against trendline. this will be a waiting game.

there is no reversal yet, as ther is no reversal pattern yet. then again, you still dont know if the trendline is broken or not. wait.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #2,339
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:58pm Jan 17, 2007 1:58pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Mid-term, over the next several days, I'm sticking with the 38 fib target, price 9460. Everyone now seems to think cable will continue long and it may do so overnight. I see it bouncing off the trendline (breached earlier) and going short, just as it did on Jan 3, 2007 when prices hit 9750 and retreated to 9300 by Jan 5th.
You may be right because in the past I've noticed that London follows New York's reaction to the Beige Book. New York clearly thought it was good for the dollar so when London wakes up they could push it lower.
  • #2,340
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:58pm Jan 17, 2007 1:58pm
Quoting notouch
Looks clearer on the hourlies. I see your point but the theory is that the median line will be tested 80% of the time - which what we're seeing right now. From here it could go down to the lower line or up to the upper line.
you beat me

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
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