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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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  • #141
  • Jul 9, 2005 9:47am Jul 9, 2005 9:47am
Quoting james16
hey scooter, it is tradestation. every bar stands on its own if that answers you question. i usually set my stop right above or below the two bars. i dont like to lose a lot of money, if it breaks the two bars its usually over. profit targets have to be user defined. i trade with enough so that just a small move will make me several hundred dollars sometimes thousands depending on the set up. i cannot say this strongly enough, never let a winner become a loser. winning three hundred and getting out only to watch it go to 3 thousand bothers me much less than watching my 300 profit turn into a 300 loss because i did not lock it in. thats just me we are all different. i take half profit then move my stop to breakeven for the other half. winning is a rush, losing sucks. if a trade goes south on me i can live with it, i cant live with watching a winner go to a loser because i did not use my brain. doing that keeps me up at night. and yes i still do it from time to time.
Amen to that, brother. At one time in my trading career I had to post a message to myself next to my screen. It read something like this:

You lose money many days, but every day there is a point where you have increased your account by at least 10%. What is the lesson here?

It is not about money management, but disclipline and personal psychology. Success breeds overconfidence. Knowing when to hold-em and when to fold-em is not as easy as it sounds.

Patrick
  • #142
  • Jul 9, 2005 10:43am Jul 9, 2005 10:43am
Quoting william5
Hi, James.


I was chatting with a fellow on another forum about time and forex, when he
introduced me to his way of charting using ellipses.

I tried to follow along but I have not been successful at generating a chart that looked close enough to his to do a trade with.

But I watched and listened to him for about two months and it was utterly astounding what and when he could predict with his charts.

Anyway, another fellow ( phydeaux ) put as much information as he could together about his methods.

If you have a chance, You can check this out yourself and maybe you could make it easier to understand for us that are not as advanced at charts.

His comments are a little hard to understand because his's native language is spanish.

http://stoxx.homeip.net/stoxxFiles/

Hope this can help us all as much as it has him.

He claimed 99.5 % accuracy with only one loss in a 6 month period and backed it up with screen shots of his ellipses and trading account statement to prove it..

William
William,

If you have any more web sites with information about elipse analysis, please provide. I have been trading for over 10 years and not heard of this, and it looks interesting.

Patrick
  • #143
  • Jul 9, 2005 1:32pm Jul 9, 2005 1:32pm
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
William,

If you have any more web sites with information about elipse analysis, please provide. I have been trading for over 10 years and not heard of this, and it looks interesting.

Patrick
good to see patrick is following and posting here. i have a new thought for this thread. i would like to see others start posting charts here with thoughts and ideas on how they trade. dont be shy, it can be very simple or very complex. it could be a new person with questions or someone like patrick who has been trading for years. every chart on this thread is based on things i learned from others. cmon everyone lets take this thread to the next level and learn from eachother. this could be the best thread on the best forum on trading ideas on the net, so lets go. i will be presenting some new ideas and charts in the near future. jim
  • #144
  • Jul 9, 2005 8:44pm Jul 9, 2005 8:44pm
Quoting james16
would merlin or fiji please take a look at this and try to tell me what i am looking at. i could swear i saw a pentagram and it scared the hell out of me, no pun intended. i have heard of market geometry and even wave ellipses but nothing like this. i plan to trade full time for the next week or so but i will be around.
I see lots of triangles and elipses. I spent about 10 minutes looking at some of the charts. If this approach appeals to people and they are willing to devote the time to it then cool. It reminds me somewhat of Gann. I think with most discretionary trading approaches if you spend enough time and develop the restraint to stay out of marginal trades you eventually can achieve a higher success ratio than with mechanical systems.

The majority of people cannot trade discretionary systems successfully. Heck the majority cannot trade mechanical ones either because they turn them into discretionary systems.

FT
  • #145
  • Jul 18, 2005 8:54pm Jul 18, 2005 8:54pm
Hi Jim, I'm still trying to make sure I understand the patterns you have showed us so here's the next question. If you look at the eur/usd on a weekly basis I believe it shows a pinochio formation. That coupled with the double bottom of yesterday seems like a good setup to enter a trade. Would you concur or is there more that needs to be in place for a good trade?
Thanks!
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #146
  • Jul 19, 2005 12:40pm Jul 19, 2005 12:40pm
I Think it is a great idea to post trades and since i am new it would,
definitly benifit me.
  • #147
  • Jul 19, 2005 5:24pm Jul 19, 2005 5:24pm
Quoting pipmonster
Hi Jim, I'm still trying to make sure I understand the patterns you have showed us so here's the next question. If you look at the eur/usd on a weekly basis I believe it shows a pinochio formation. That coupled with the double bottom of yesterday seems like a good setup to enter a trade. Would you concur or is there more that needs to be in place for a good trade?
Thanks!
hello pipmonster, i have not posted much recently due to being out of town on business. this is a crazy time of year for me. i am not currently able to look at charts. i hope to be back full time to this thread and the forum in several weeks. jim
  • #148
  • Jul 22, 2005 3:39pm Jul 22, 2005 3:39pm
new chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: QQQQ.jpg Size: 579 KB
  • #149
  • Edited Jul 23, 2005 1:09am Jul 22, 2005 6:32pm | Edited Jul 23, 2005 1:09am
this may take a few minutes so stick with me. this forum, my first in twenty years, has shown me i have come a long way as a trader. the trials, tribulations, hopes and dreams as a new trader looking for success have long passed from my memory. this forum has changed that. i have discovered something about myself previously unknown, i love to teach. has my ego received a boost from this forum? you damn right it has and i have enjoyed it. merlin has offered me a private location on the forum to teach and trade. actually he offered this a while back and i did not respond. why? it scared the hell out of me. why? because i care about what others think of me. perhaps thats a personality flaw but its the truth. to receive the kind of emails probably received recently by beau justified or not would make my life miserable. so here is what i did. athiests please bear with me. i prayed about it. A LOT. here is what i got out of it. are you doing it for the money? yes and no, my days are spent trading and running my business, nights are spent getting ready for the next day. this endeavor will only be done if i give a 100 percent, so if i give it the required time it will have an impact on my bottom line. i need to at least break even. i have no desire to start a websight i am perfectly happy right here. that should tell you something. can you really help people be succesful? this is the one i really struggled with and without any doubt here is the answer. if you apply yourself and do things correctly, which you will be taught, i can in two or three months have you trading like very very few. i will give you in months for virtually nothing what took me twenty years and tens of thousands of dollars to learn. are you infringing on any ones material? another tough one. i spent two full weeks contacting vendors and people i have " learned" from to make sure i am not. virtually anything being taught was in one form or another learned from someone else anyway. what i do is a compilation of many, many things i have learned. not just one specefic "system". what i will teach you is how to find, screen and take only the best trades. will i enjoy it? yes, because i know what i do works and i will enjoy seeing it work for others. will everyone be succesful? geez, everything in me wants to say yes because once again i know what i do works. but of course i cant say that. there are so many traders that take a winning trade and somehow turn it into a losing one. what do i charge because i have no idea how many people will sign up and if i do my job you wont need me in a couple of months anyway? this is the big one. the options i have considered. 1. charge a flat rate per month, but how much? as i said the idea is for you not to need me after i am finished. do i just make it a course with the forum as a way to discuss potential trades? should i charge a sign up fee and then a monthly fee. should i just charge a nominal monthly fee and hope that you stick around because its so cheap? if i have 50 people paying 20 bucks a month that aint gonna cut it. i am excited about the possibilities for this but i need your opinions and feedback. i want to do it but if i feel it is coming from greed i will drop it like a hot potato. i want to be fairly compensated but i dont want to be like everyone else. my intention is to offer you the best bang for your buck you will ever see in your trading career. this will actually be the easy part. new traders can cut years off the learning curve and intermidiate and advanced traders can take this information and combine it with what they are already doing for enhancement. i know of tradestation programs sold all the time for 5 to 10 thousand dollars that cant touch what i will teach you. there are literaly more than a dozen trade set ups/strategies that i developed and use that i have never seen anyone else use. NO ONE. if you choose to combine them and wait for the absolute best trades they are deadly. seriously folks, i mean that. i want this to be affordable for EVERYONE. your thoughts and suggestions are requested. jim
  • #150
  • Jul 23, 2005 8:32am Jul 23, 2005 8:32am
Quoting james16
good to see patrick is following and posting here. i have a new thought for this thread. i would like to see others start posting charts here with thoughts and ideas on how they trade. dont be shy, it can be very simple or very complex. it could be a new person with questions or someone like patrick who has been trading for years. every chart on this thread is based on things i learned from others. cmon everyone lets take this thread to the next level and learn from eachother. this could be the best thread on the best forum on trading ideas on the net, so lets go. i will be presenting some new ideas and charts in the near future. jim
Jim,

I appreciate your hint, but I have been enjoying the continuity of your thread. I think it would be a distraction if we went in several directions and there needs to be only one conductor of a train. Sure, I have learned a few things in my years of trading, but at this point I would only like to add advice which complements your teachings. Much of what you are teaching is what I have already learned, and I just assume most people already know it. But I forget what it is like to be a new trader.

Every teacher has their own area of speciality. That does not mean they deviate from the basics. They just have something of their speciality to add. I will comment occasionally as the need arises.

Patrick
  • #151
  • Jul 23, 2005 8:45am Jul 23, 2005 8:45am
Quoting james16
new chart
What you said in the chart is right on. There are truly "average trades," and then there are "prime trading opportunities." What I have learned is to evaluate risk and bet only small amounts on average trades. When my account is down, I bet only on the "sure thing." This philosophy has kept me alive for years. Since I day trade for a living, I tend to trade more often than I should. But at least I know when I am trading for entertainment verses trading for needed income. This took years to learn.
  • #152
  • Jul 23, 2005 1:53pm Jul 23, 2005 1:53pm
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
What you said in the chart is right on. There are truly "average trades," and then there are "prime trading opportunities." What I have learned is to evaluate risk and bet only small amounts on average trades. When my account is down, I bet only on the "sure thing." This philosophy has kept me alive for years. Since I day trade for a living, I tend to trade more often than I should. But at least I know when I am trading for entertainment verses trading for needed income. This took years to learn.
this is exactly what i do. in fact i have in the past year started the process of training myself to only taking the primo trades. if their is one a day, fine, if their is only 3 or 4 a week then thats fine to. daytrading off a 5 min chart and only taking one trade a day is unusual but i learned a long time ago if i did the usual i would not last long. i blew out more than one account back then trading the " like usual" pattern.
  • #153
  • Jul 23, 2005 1:59pm Jul 23, 2005 1:59pm
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
Jim,

I appreciate your hint, but I have been enjoying the continuity of your thread. I think it would be a distraction if we went in several directions and there needs to be only one conductor of a train. Sure, I have learned a few things in my years of trading, but at this point I would only like to add advice which complements your teachings. Much of what you are teaching is what I have already learned, and I just assume most people already know it. But I forget what it is like to be a new trader.

Every teacher has their own area of speciality. That does not mean they deviate from the basics. They just have something of their speciality to add. I will comment occasionally as the need arises.

Patrick
patrick, what i was hoping was for you or other advanced traders to do just that. add some specialties to what i am doing. not go in another direction but add some of thier ideas and specialties to fine tune. i hope you and others will do this.
  • #154
  • Jul 24, 2005 12:07am Jul 24, 2005 12:07am
Quoting james16
this may take a few minutes so stick with me. this forum, my first in twenty years, has shown me i have come a long way as a trader. the trials, tribulations, hopes and dreams as a new trader looking for success have long passed from my memory. this forum has changed that. i have discovered something about myself previously unknown, i love to teach. has my ego received a boost from this forum? you damn right it has and i have enjoyed it. merlin has offered me a private location on the forum to teach and trade. actually he offered this a while back and i did not respond. why? it scared the hell out of me. why? because i care about what others think of me. perhaps thats a personality flaw but its the truth. to receive the kind of emails probably received recently by beau justified or not would make my life miserable. so here is what i did. athiests please bear with me. i prayed about it. A LOT. here is what i got out of it. are you doing it for the money? yes and no, my days are spent trading and running my business, nights are spent getting ready for the next day. this endeavor will only be done if i give a 100 percent, so if i give it the required time it will have an impact on my bottom line. i need to at least break even. i have no desire to start a websight i am perfectly happy right here. that should tell you something. can you really help people be succesful? this is the one i really struggled with and without any doubt here is the answer. if you apply yourself and do things correctly, which you will be taught, i can in two or three months have you trading like very very few. i will give you in months for virtually nothing what took me twenty years and tens of thousands of dollars to learn. are you infringing on any ones material? another tough one. i spent two full weeks contacting vendors and people i have " learned" from to make sure i am not. virtually anything being taught was in one form or another learned from someone else anyway. what i do is a compilation of many, many things i have learned. not just one specefic "system". what i will teach you is how to find, screen and take only the best trades. will i enjoy it? yes, because i know what i do works and i will enjoy seeing it work for others. will everyone be succesful? geez, everything in me wants to say yes because once again i know what i do works. but of course i cant say that. there are so many traders that take a winning trade and somehow turn it into a losing one. what do i charge because i have no idea how many people will sign up and if i do my job you wont need me in a couple of months anyway? this is the big one. the options i have considered. 1. charge a flat rate per month, but how much? as i said the idea is for you not to need me after i am finished. do i just make it a course with the forum as a way to discuss potential trades? should i charge a sign up fee and then a monthly fee. should i just charge a nominal monthly fee and hope that you stick around because its so cheap? if i have 50 people paying 20 bucks a month that aint gonna cut it. i am excited about the possibilities for this but i need your opinions and feedback. i want to do it but if i feel it is coming from greed i will drop it like a hot potato. i want to be fairly compensated but i dont want to be like everyone else. my intention is to offer you the best bang for your buck you will ever see in your trading career. this will actually be the easy part. new traders can cut years off the learning curve and intermidiate and advanced traders can take this information and combine it with what they are already doing for enhancement. i know of tradestation programs sold all the time for 5 to 10 thousand dollars that cant touch what i will teach you. there are literaly more than a dozen trade set ups/strategies that i developed and use that i have never seen anyone else use. NO ONE. if you choose to combine them and wait for the absolute best trades they are deadly. seriously folks, i mean that. i want this to be affordable for EVERYONE. your thoughts and suggestions are requested. jim
Jim,

That's exciting news - you will make a great teacher!

Here are a couple of thoughts based on your comments:

- You need to consider capping the number of students you have at any one time. You enjoy teaching and value student feedback and want to go 100% on this project. You also sound very motivated to have your students succeed. I could be way off, but I'm willing to bet that you would enjoy mentoring 10 or 15 students at one time more than you would enjoy teaching 100 (pulling these numbers out of the air, but you see the idea.) How many students do you truly think you can handle at one time at the depth that you want to teach and given the number of hours in the day? At some level adding additional students would mean shortchanging the ones you have because of sheer quantity of people to deal with ... what do you think that level is for you?

- On how much to charge ... I think you should calculate what you currently make on average in your trading activities. Then compare that to the amount of time you teaching will take, and charge compensation at the same rate (spread equally among your students, assuming a "full" class.) This would be a very fair way to do it, in my opinion.

For example, let's say that you make $10,000 each month on average from your trading. Let's also say that you spend 60 hours each week on trading activities (including prep, etc.). That's roughly 240 hours per month. Based on these (completely made up) figures, you currently pay yourself $41.67 / hour for your trading activities.

Then you need to estimate how many hours you will have to devote to this teaching project. Let's say that it would take five hours per day, six days per week. That's 30 hours per week, or roughly 120 hours per month. Based on these figures your compensation would need to be $5,000 per month.

So if your max is 10 students, you should charge $500 per month. If your max is 100 students, you should charge $50 per month.

Again, this seems a very fair way to do it to me, because your trading time (based on the above made up numbers) has a demonstrated value of $41.67 per hour.

Hope that helps. Good luck!

James
  • #155
  • Jul 24, 2005 12:30am Jul 24, 2005 12:30am
Quoting Redleg
Jim,

That's exciting news - you will make a great teacher!

Here are a couple of thoughts based on your comments:

- You need to consider capping the number of students you have at any one time. You enjoy teaching and value student feedback and want to go 100% on this project. You also sound very motivated to have your students succeed. I could be way off, but I'm willing to bet that you would enjoy mentoring 10 or 15 students at one time more than you would enjoy teaching 100 (pulling these numbers out of the air, but you see the idea.) How many students do you truly think you can handle at one time at the depth that you want to teach and given the number of hours in the day? At some level adding additional students would mean shortchanging the ones you have because of sheer quantity of people to deal with ... what do you think that level is for you?

- On how much to charge ... I think you should calculate what you currently make on average in your trading activities. Then compare that to the amount of time you teaching will take, and charge compensation at the same rate (spread equally among your students, assuming a "full" class.) This would be a very fair way to do it, in my opinion.

For example, let's say that you make $10,000 each month on average from your trading. Let's also say that you spend 60 hours each week on trading activities (including prep, etc.). That's roughly 240 hours per month. Based on these (completely made up) figures, you currently pay yourself $41.67 / hour for your trading activities.

Then you need to estimate how many hours you will have to devote to this teaching project. Let's say that it would take five hours per day, six days per week. That's 30 hours per week, or roughly 120 hours per month. Based on these figures your compensation would need to be $5,000 per month.

So if your max is 10 students, you should charge $500 per month. If your max is 100 students, you should charge $50 per month.

Again, this seems a very fair way to do it to me, because your trading time (based on the above made up numbers) has a demonstrated value of $41.67 per hour.

Hope that helps. Good luck!

James
thanks redleg, i had not thought of it like this. you have given me more to think about. thanks. i need this kind of feedback.
  • #156
  • Jul 25, 2005 4:41am Jul 25, 2005 4:41am
Quoting james16
this may take a few minutes so stick with me. this forum, my first in twenty years, has shown me i have come a long way as a trader. the trials, tribulations, hopes and dreams as a new trader looking for success have long passed from my memory. this forum has changed that. i have discovered something about myself previously unknown, i love to teach. has my ego received a boost from this forum? you damn right it has and i have enjoyed it. merlin has offered me a private location on the forum to teach and trade. actually he offered this a while back and i did not respond. why? it scared the hell out of me. why? because i care about what others think of me. perhaps thats a personality flaw but its the truth. to receive the kind of emails probably received recently by beau justified or not would make my life miserable. so here is what i did. athiests please bear with me. i prayed about it. A LOT. here is what i got out of it. are you doing it for the money? yes and no, my days are spent trading and running my business, nights are spent getting ready for the next day. this endeavor will only be done if i give a 100 percent, so if i give it the required time it will have an impact on my bottom line. i need to at least break even. i have no desire to start a websight i am perfectly happy right here. that should tell you something. can you really help people be succesful? this is the one i really struggled with and without any doubt here is the answer. if you apply yourself and do things correctly, which you will be taught, i can in two or three months have you trading like very very few. i will give you in months for virtually nothing what took me twenty years and tens of thousands of dollars to learn. are you infringing on any ones material? another tough one. i spent two full weeks contacting vendors and people i have " learned" from to make sure i am not. virtually anything being taught was in one form or another learned from someone else anyway. what i do is a compilation of many, many things i have learned. not just one specefic "system". what i will teach you is how to find, screen and take only the best trades. will i enjoy it? yes, because i know what i do works and i will enjoy seeing it work for others. will everyone be succesful? geez, everything in me wants to say yes because once again i know what i do works. but of course i cant say that. there are so many traders that take a winning trade and somehow turn it into a losing one. what do i charge because i have no idea how many people will sign up and if i do my job you wont need me in a couple of months anyway? this is the big one. the options i have considered. 1. charge a flat rate per month, but how much? as i said the idea is for you not to need me after i am finished. do i just make it a course with the forum as a way to discuss potential trades? should i charge a sign up fee and then a monthly fee. should i just charge a nominal monthly fee and hope that you stick around because its so cheap? if i have 50 people paying 20 bucks a month that aint gonna cut it. i am excited about the possibilities for this but i need your opinions and feedback. i want to do it but if i feel it is coming from greed i will drop it like a hot potato. i want to be fairly compensated but i dont want to be like everyone else. my intention is to offer you the best bang for your buck you will ever see in your trading career. this will actually be the easy part. new traders can cut years off the learning curve and intermidiate and advanced traders can take this information and combine it with what they are already doing for enhancement. i know of tradestation programs sold all the time for 5 to 10 thousand dollars that cant touch what i will teach you. there are literaly more than a dozen trade set ups/strategies that i developed and use that i have never seen anyone else use. NO ONE. if you choose to combine them and wait for the absolute best trades they are deadly. seriously folks, i mean that. i want this to be affordable for EVERYONE. your thoughts and suggestions are requested. jim
OK, here is my 2 cents.

Some of us who are more experienced would just like the basic set ups. Perhaps if you made a small (but powerful) booklet titled "my 12 favorite trades." Give two or maybe 3 examples of each trade. Sell it for whatever you think is fair. Then, people who need more detail or help could subscribe to a tutoring service. This service could be step rate, based on need. For example, up to 2 hours per month, $50 per month. Up to 5 hours per month, costing $100 per month. Etc.

You are going to use these 12 trades and examples any way in your course, so why not just publish them in a booklet. That is what I would be interested in, and I am guessing I already know most of them.
  • #157
  • Jul 25, 2005 11:41am Jul 25, 2005 11:41am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
OK, here is my 2 cents.

Some of us who are more experienced would just like the basic set ups. Perhaps if you made a small (but powerful) booklet titled "my 12 favorite trades." Give two or maybe 3 examples of each trade. Sell it for whatever you think is fair. Then, people who need more detail or help could subscribe to a tutoring service. This service could be step rate, based on need. For example, up to 2 hours per month, $50 per month. Up to 5 hours per month, costing $100 per month. Etc.

You are going to use these 12 trades and examples any way in your course, so why not just publish them in a booklet. That is what I would be interested in, and I am guessing I already know most of them.
patrick you are kind of a mystery to me and i think to some others. i keep thinking i may be dealing with a real pro but of course i cant be sure. your post made me smile because unless you know exactly what i am doing with all those ma's and the keltner channel conbined with the price action you dont have a clue as to what i am doing. however you have me wondering. if you think you do shoot me a private email. i am also curious do you use price action analysis to confirm your own trades? you sound like the real deal so why not throw in a couple of chart examples on how you confirm your trades on this thread. you are not going to ruin the continuity in fact i was hoping that this would happen and have been a bit dissapointed no one has. anyway thanks for your input a booklet is one of the things i have considered. jim
  • #158
  • Jul 26, 2005 12:21am Jul 26, 2005 12:21am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
OK, here is my 2 cents.

Some of us who are more experienced would just like the basic set ups. Perhaps if you made a small (but powerful) booklet titled "my 12 favorite trades." Give two or maybe 3 examples of each trade. Sell it for whatever you think is fair. Then, people who need more detail or help could subscribe to a tutoring service. This service could be step rate, based on need. For example, up to 2 hours per month, $50 per month. Up to 5 hours per month, costing $100 per month. Etc.

You are going to use these 12 trades and examples any way in your course, so why not just publish them in a booklet. That is what I would be interested in, and I am guessing I already know most of them.
the core of my trading which anyone following this thread would know is price action analysis. i have been hoping someone would have caught the triple bar low with a higher close on 7/12,13,14 on the daily cad. did anyone catch it? what i should do is forget about all this course talk and just go ahead and put my butt on the line and start making calls. i will make the calls and we will let fij teach the money management and psychology and will all just get frickin rich together. i am feeling a bit jiggy tonight so forgive me.
  • #159
  • Jul 26, 2005 12:31am Jul 26, 2005 12:31am
look at the perfect inside bars developing on the daily cad. its winding up tight. i dont know which way its going to break. playing a break of inside bars is sometimes tough because the first break is sometimes a fake out. i will bet pretty soon it breaks hard one way or the other, i will wait patiently and see if it shows its hand. i am already long from the triple bar low, i sure hope it breaks up. jim
  • #160
  • Edited 12:34pm Jul 26, 2005 12:23pm | Edited 12:34pm
Quoting james16
look at the perfect inside bars developing on the daily cad. its winding up tight. i dont know which way its going to break. playing a break of inside bars is sometimes tough because the first break is sometimes a fake out. i will bet pretty soon it breaks hard one way or the other, i will wait patiently and see if it shows its hand. i am already long from the triple bar low, i sure hope it breaks up. jim
go take a look at the cad now. it broke up like a rocket, i have personally purchased courses for several thousand dollars that cant touch what i have provided here. in at the close of the tblhc at 1.2120, currently at 1.2298, up about 180 pips now, trailing my stop. jim
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