Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting webstakes

Disliked

Rumours of Japanese intervention !

Awaiting verbal intervention

Ignored

Quoting forexpert310

Disliked

ill stay bearish until i see 200-190s

Ignored

Quoting Tiger Hunter

Disliked

Hi Markam, i like your dinasour avatar that eating the cave man...lol
man you are so good in analysis i will love to have your big view of the whole picture, from long time ago and you talk about deppresion . is there any other good scenario or only sure about the global collapse .

Ignored

Quoting nobleolagoke

Disliked

pls could anyone help me...i subscribed for auslanco's paid signals and iwas not given a place to register my name nor account uptil now i dont know how to log onto his site


thanks

Ignored

Quoting malcolmb14

Disliked

i have been a bear for a while now

Target was 190.

I think we may hit 175 now if we do not get intervenetion by BOJ

Ignored

Quoting malcolmb14

Disliked

i have been a bear for a while now

Target was 190.

I think we may hit 175 now if we do not get intervenetion by BOJ

Ignored

Quoting razergold

Disliked

If intervened by BOJ, what is the likely outcome for this pair?

Ignored

Quoting markam

Disliked

There were several good scenarios that might have worked for the US if we had made the right choices after 9/11. Our fearless leaders made absolutely the worst possible choices in every case. At this point, I don't see any outlook for the US except for a major crash.

As for the rest of the world, I can see some countries surviving ok, and others going down harder than the US does. The big unknowns are how quickly oil supplies are going to drop, and whether or not we blunder into a real war.

Ignored

Quoting rav700

Disliked

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/
Email him at [email protected]

Ignored

Quoting cotoho

Disliked

There isn't a problem with oil supply, never has been.

There is a problem with production!

Ignored

Quoting markam

Disliked

the problem is that we will produce less of every year for the rest of time.

If you count oil shale, etc., there are trillions of barrels of supply available. We will just never be able to extract it at the rate we have been pumping light sweet crude.

Ignored

Quoting cotoho

Disliked

Mostly agree.

There are new finds all the time. Technology makes more of the good stuff accessible, and accessible much cleaner that in the old days.

If people had the guts to tell the greenies what they can do and go drill anyway we wouldn't have any problems with supply. Oil up in Alaska, waiting to be tapped. Oil in the Gulf of Mexico, waiting to be tapped. Oil in the Arctic Circle, waiting to be tapped. Etc...Etc...

Why don't the greenies get on their boats and cruise around the coast of Cuba and stop the Chinese from drilling for oil there?! Wonder how long until they would suddenly find a Chinese torpedo heading for their little boat...

Ignored

Quote

Disliked

Originally Posted by GodfreyH http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Markam,

On a slightly off-topic note, a few days ago you posted a chart of worldwide oil production peaking, and flatlining. Indications are that demand would soon, perhaps a year or two, outstrip supply.

But don't you think that if oil becomes scarce enough (and expensive enough), USA, will say to environmentalists, enough already, and open up the considerable reserves of Alaska natural habitat to oil exploration? and aren't Canada's oil sands largely untapped?


--------------
That is a very good question. There is no doubt that there are large reserves in the tar sands of venezuela and canada, and there is likely a good bit of oil left in alaska. However, these resources will do nothing but slightly flatten the downward curve of global oil production.

To answer your question properly would take about 50 pages of writing. However the short answer is that the major oil fields are all in decline, and these major fields have been the source of the majority of the oil produced during the petroleum age. As the major fields pass peak, their production begins declining. This decline rate can be from 5%/year to more than 15%/year. We are at the point where we literally have to add millions of barrels/day of production capacity each year just to account for decline rates in the large fields. It is like a treadmill that keeps getting faster and faster. At some point, you can no longer keep up and you fall behind. At that point, no amount of effort can even get you back to where you were to begin with.

The odds of finding another giant or supergiant oil field similar to those discovered in the past is basically zero. The replacements, such as the tar sands in Canada, while large in reserves, can only be exploited at a relatively low rate. There is a big difference between drilling a 1000 foot well and having 50,000 barrels/day come out and having to strip mine millions of tons of rock, haul by truck to a processing plant, separate the tar, use a 1000 cubic feet of natural gas per barrel to add hydrogen to the tar, further process the oil and then clean up the mess to get that same 50,000 barrels/day.

As for Alaska, we could start tomorrow and you would never even notice the impact on global production. If you don't believe me, take a look at US production rates from 1970 to 1980. The US production peaked in 1970, and we scrambled to open up alaska. When the alaska pipeline started flowing, all we succeeded in doing was halt the US production decline for 1 year. Decline rates in the lower 48 states wiped out the alaska production increase almost instantly.

Global oil production peaked in 2005, and we have been scrambling to maintain approximately that level for the past 2 years. By this time next year, it will be obvious that we have passed the peak and we are heading down the backside.

Peak Oil is the main reason that I am so convinced that the US and the world have a very bleak future. We have used the excess energy stored over 200 million years to expand humanity and civilization far beyond what we should have been able to. We will not be able to substitute nearly fast enough to maintain our energy output, and I expect a global collapse.

I hope I am wrong, but I really am afraid that I am not.
__________________
The glass is not half full or half empty. It is about to be destroyed by the collapse of civilization.