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Auslanco-GBP/JPY Strength Indicator strategy 345 replies

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Attachments: Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting webstakes
Rumours of Japanese intervention !

Awaiting verbal intervention
I am not sure they can do much besides talk.
Quoting forexpert310
ill stay bearish until i see 200-190s
i have been a bear for a while now

Target was 190.

I think we may hit 175 now if we do not get intervenetion by BOJ
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
my target from the break point is 380 pips that is mean from 205.17 to
201.50
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i will be more confirm when my 4 hr candle broke the 203.40
Quoting Tiger Hunter
Hi Markam, i like your dinasour avatar that eating the cave man...lol
man you are so good in analysis i will love to have your big view of the whole picture, from long time ago and you talk about deppresion . is there any other good scenario or only sure about the global collapse .
There were several good scenarios that might have worked for the US if we had made the right choices after 9/11. Our fearless leaders made absolutely the worst possible choices in every case. At this point, I don't see any outlook for the US except for a major crash.

As for the rest of the world, I can see some countries surviving ok, and others going down harder than the US does. The big unknowns are how quickly oil supplies are going to drop, and whether or not we blunder into a real war.
Quoting nobleolagoke
pls could anyone help me...i subscribed for auslanco's paid signals and iwas not given a place to register my name nor account uptil now i dont know how to log onto his site


thanks
http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/
Email him at [email protected]
Quoting malcolmb14
i have been a bear for a while now

Target was 190.

I think we may hit 175 now if we do not get intervenetion by BOJ
If intervened by BOJ, what is the likely outcome for this pair?
Quoting malcolmb14
i have been a bear for a while now

Target was 190.

I think we may hit 175 now if we do not get intervenetion by BOJ
I think BOJ would give out verbal intervention first before it materializes. I think they know it is very expensive to do it in the current situation, just not like previous times where forex was traded less than 1.8 trillion a day. Now what I have heard it is a lot more..
Well, I don't know..it's only my take.
Quoting razergold
If intervened by BOJ, what is the likely outcome for this pair?
If their interventions are as effective as the Feds are right now, UJ will immediately drop to 90
Oil will begin its MT LT decline in 2 days, myself i think the 9/11 devalue of dollars transfer of power to EU has about ran its course or coming to a close very soon, the only thing left is equities to get the final shake out before to turn around.


Lo volume test on yen dbl bottom gotta be a buyer
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
Quoting markam
There were several good scenarios that might have worked for the US if we had made the right choices after 9/11. Our fearless leaders made absolutely the worst possible choices in every case. At this point, I don't see any outlook for the US except for a major crash.

As for the rest of the world, I can see some countries surviving ok, and others going down harder than the US does. The big unknowns are how quickly oil supplies are going to drop, and whether or not we blunder into a real war.
There isn't a problem with oil supply, never has been.

There is a problem with production!
pls check attachment
Attached Image
Quoting rav700
http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/
Email him at [email protected]

Thanks man
I ll mail him
Quoting cotoho
There isn't a problem with oil supply, never has been.

There is a problem with production!
the problem is that we will produce less of every year for the rest of time.

If you count oil shale, etc., there are trillions of barrels of supply available. We will just never be able to extract it at the rate we have been pumping light sweet crude.
that the cable chart and i need advice from price action pro,
i make a trend line from the fall in my daily chart make a nic down trent and the main point her is 1.9948 that point was the recent peak in that down trend and it is broke so i figured that the trend changed from down trent to up trend but i feel that the last two days make a reversal sighn but i am not sure , can any one here understand in price action stuff pass me confirmation if that reversal pattern...
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Nice chart! Looks like cable got pretty darn close to the 50% retracement. And today it touched the 38%. But I am thinking these two bearish candles are merely "resting" and waiting for some more up. Price is still riding the 5ema up, and the 50ema is close to crossing the 200ema in a few days, which is a big sign of more up. Plus, my stochastics is today crossing the 0 line, so looks to be plenty of room for further up move. I have not traded cable in some months, so this analysis could be way off. Good luck!
Does anyone think this could be a double bottom at 203.50?
Quoting markam
the problem is that we will produce less of every year for the rest of time.

If you count oil shale, etc., there are trillions of barrels of supply available. We will just never be able to extract it at the rate we have been pumping light sweet crude.
Mostly agree.

There are new finds all the time. Technology makes more of the good stuff accessible, and accessible much cleaner that in the old days.

If people had the guts to tell the greenies what they can do and go drill anyway we wouldn't have any problems with supply. Oil up in Alaska, waiting to be tapped. Oil in the Gulf of Mexico, waiting to be tapped. Oil in the Arctic Circle, waiting to be tapped. Etc...Etc...

Why don't the greenies get on their boats and cruise around the coast of Cuba and stop the Chinese from drilling for oil there?! Wonder how long until they would suddenly find a Chinese torpedo heading for their little boat...
Quoting cotoho
Mostly agree.

There are new finds all the time. Technology makes more of the good stuff accessible, and accessible much cleaner that in the old days.

If people had the guts to tell the greenies what they can do and go drill anyway we wouldn't have any problems with supply. Oil up in Alaska, waiting to be tapped. Oil in the Gulf of Mexico, waiting to be tapped. Oil in the Arctic Circle, waiting to be tapped. Etc...Etc...

Why don't the greenies get on their boats and cruise around the coast of Cuba and stop the Chinese from drilling for oil there?! Wonder how long until they would suddenly find a Chinese torpedo heading for their little boat...

Back in November I had this same discussion with Markam. His in-depth response:

Quote
Originally Posted by GodfreyH http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Markam,

On a slightly off-topic note, a few days ago you posted a chart of worldwide oil production peaking, and flatlining. Indications are that demand would soon, perhaps a year or two, outstrip supply.

But don't you think that if oil becomes scarce enough (and expensive enough), USA, will say to environmentalists, enough already, and open up the considerable reserves of Alaska natural habitat to oil exploration? and aren't Canada's oil sands largely untapped?


--------------
That is a very good question. There is no doubt that there are large reserves in the tar sands of venezuela and canada, and there is likely a good bit of oil left in alaska. However, these resources will do nothing but slightly flatten the downward curve of global oil production.

To answer your question properly would take about 50 pages of writing. However the short answer is that the major oil fields are all in decline, and these major fields have been the source of the majority of the oil produced during the petroleum age. As the major fields pass peak, their production begins declining. This decline rate can be from 5%/year to more than 15%/year. We are at the point where we literally have to add millions of barrels/day of production capacity each year just to account for decline rates in the large fields. It is like a treadmill that keeps getting faster and faster. At some point, you can no longer keep up and you fall behind. At that point, no amount of effort can even get you back to where you were to begin with.

The odds of finding another giant or supergiant oil field similar to those discovered in the past is basically zero. The replacements, such as the tar sands in Canada, while large in reserves, can only be exploited at a relatively low rate. There is a big difference between drilling a 1000 foot well and having 50,000 barrels/day come out and having to strip mine millions of tons of rock, haul by truck to a processing plant, separate the tar, use a 1000 cubic feet of natural gas per barrel to add hydrogen to the tar, further process the oil and then clean up the mess to get that same 50,000 barrels/day.

As for Alaska, we could start tomorrow and you would never even notice the impact on global production. If you don't believe me, take a look at US production rates from 1970 to 1980. The US production peaked in 1970, and we scrambled to open up alaska. When the alaska pipeline started flowing, all we succeeded in doing was halt the US production decline for 1 year. Decline rates in the lower 48 states wiped out the alaska production increase almost instantly.

Global oil production peaked in 2005, and we have been scrambling to maintain approximately that level for the past 2 years. By this time next year, it will be obvious that we have passed the peak and we are heading down the backside.

Peak Oil is the main reason that I am so convinced that the US and the world have a very bleak future. We have used the excess energy stored over 200 million years to expand humanity and civilization far beyond what we should have been able to. We will not be able to substitute nearly fast enough to maintain our energy output, and I expect a global collapse.

I hope I am wrong, but I really am afraid that I am not.
__________________
The glass is not half full or half empty. It is about to be destroyed by the collapse of civilization.
Re Oil:

There's no doubt that the world is going thru MASSIVE changes now and it will probably continue for a while. However, to dismiss the human spirit, the creativity and the will of some people is wrong. People will innovate and move on. New ideas will be forced upon us as the status quo will no longer be the "easy" choice. Ethanol, Solar, hybrids and vegetable oil (yes check it out as a fuel source) will become "accepted". Civilization is not going to crumble, it will just evolve.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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