Dislikedhey qman..... got your mail..... this is very similar to a 3 line break system, i've coded that long ago......
did a quick read and if i understand the rules correctly, gaps are probably going to whack us around here..... nomask's simple and well defined rules should make turning his thoughts into an ea fairly simple..... with a couple extra options we could compare different entry times, ie sunday's open might not be the best...... hIgnored
Yes, not statistically significant. And, someday, when I finish the analysis, it still won't be statistically significant, until I can look at other years. At the rate I'm going, it will be a long, long time before I can get statistically significant data all compiled. Until then, trade at your own risk.
Having said that, putting on orders to maximize profit prior to Nomask's target points is not too far from the rules, and should make sense as long as one is not getting too many positions set. Taking profit earlier on some should help with your winning percentage some, but you might also lose on some of the moves that go the full 2X. Statistically, that would work against you if it went that distance more often than it didn't. For the first half of 2007, that wasn't the case, but again, small sample. Take profit earlier if you are only comfortable with a high percentage of wins, and can live with leaving some profit on the table... because ultimately, you will.
I am set with two positions on each side. One will go for 1X, the other for 2X. The 2X position will probably have a 100 pip Trailing stop once the 1X hits... though I might change that number because it is too round and subject to a stop hunt. I'm toying with the idea of puting an 85 pip TS on the position running for the 1X. I really hate to see things go from largely positive to a loss.
I'll also be ready to jump on a reversal through the channel. So once 1X is achieved on either side, I'll have a stop set on the near side of the channel to catch the retrace.
The range on this channel is around 232, so by the original rules, the 2X goal is 464 pips. Certainly not unheard of with GBPJPY, but to get there on the short side, we'll be setting some new lows, and that makes it a little longer shot, even in a downtrend. Not saying it is impossible, or improbable, just harder. The carry trade system I work with kind of argues for a bounce here to clear my average position. There is no real technical reason for this(fibs could be a factor, but I'm not going to that detail -- my systems don't require it), or a fundamental reason. But we've been going down for a good while now, and we're possibly due for a retracement. Those tend to eventually close out the carry trade average that appears, which for me right now is above 210. That seems in agreement with the long entry for this system, so I'm liking how that looks.... But the market can do whatever it likes, I'm just trying to ride it wherever it goes. I just hope when it gets going, it goes far enough.
The perfect week for me would actually be, trigger short on this system. Reach 1X, then reverse through the channel (let me capture that move), and continue on to the 1.5X+ area by the end of the week, so I can capture that move with this system, and comfortably close my carry trade average too.
So, now that we know what is perfect for me, you all know one thing the market is NOT likely to do.
Having said that, putting on orders to maximize profit prior to Nomask's target points is not too far from the rules, and should make sense as long as one is not getting too many positions set. Taking profit earlier on some should help with your winning percentage some, but you might also lose on some of the moves that go the full 2X. Statistically, that would work against you if it went that distance more often than it didn't. For the first half of 2007, that wasn't the case, but again, small sample. Take profit earlier if you are only comfortable with a high percentage of wins, and can live with leaving some profit on the table... because ultimately, you will.
I am set with two positions on each side. One will go for 1X, the other for 2X. The 2X position will probably have a 100 pip Trailing stop once the 1X hits... though I might change that number because it is too round and subject to a stop hunt. I'm toying with the idea of puting an 85 pip TS on the position running for the 1X. I really hate to see things go from largely positive to a loss.
I'll also be ready to jump on a reversal through the channel. So once 1X is achieved on either side, I'll have a stop set on the near side of the channel to catch the retrace.
The range on this channel is around 232, so by the original rules, the 2X goal is 464 pips. Certainly not unheard of with GBPJPY, but to get there on the short side, we'll be setting some new lows, and that makes it a little longer shot, even in a downtrend. Not saying it is impossible, or improbable, just harder. The carry trade system I work with kind of argues for a bounce here to clear my average position. There is no real technical reason for this(fibs could be a factor, but I'm not going to that detail -- my systems don't require it), or a fundamental reason. But we've been going down for a good while now, and we're possibly due for a retracement. Those tend to eventually close out the carry trade average that appears, which for me right now is above 210. That seems in agreement with the long entry for this system, so I'm liking how that looks.... But the market can do whatever it likes, I'm just trying to ride it wherever it goes. I just hope when it gets going, it goes far enough.
The perfect week for me would actually be, trigger short on this system. Reach 1X, then reverse through the channel (let me capture that move), and continue on to the 1.5X+ area by the end of the week, so I can capture that move with this system, and comfortably close my carry trade average too.
So, now that we know what is perfect for me, you all know one thing the market is NOT likely to do.