Daily Cable Analysis

Hi
Hope your trading going on well . Could you please let us know you trading system, if you have time please
Thankx in advance
Banda

I am in the process of perfecting a method for day trading which uses 3 elements, one of which is not mine to share since it is a custom indicator designed by someone else, the other 2 elements are Bollinger Bands (standard MA20 and 2 standard deviations) and slow stochastic (5,3,3). These are used at either 2 or 3 different timeframes for each pair, although the timeframes differ for the different pairs and seem to be related to volatility (ie. the shortest timeframe is for poundyen for which I use 15M and 30M charts only), most pairs use 15M, 30M and 1H charts, and entry signal has to be generated on ALL of the charts used for the pair at the same time.

There is a huge downside to the system and that is that it is totally useless when a pair is trending, even if it is a only mini trend, because it will generate false entry signals under those circumstances. One of the biggest problems is to avoid trades under these circumstances and predicting when trending is to begin because that makes a trade fail.

What is bothering me at present about cable is that the 15M and 30M charts are showing evidence of trending, which if it continues, will make the trade fail.

So far, the system has a very high success rate, pip gains are limited, being usually around 20 to 30 per trade, but sometimes over 50 pips. Stop losses are 25 to 30 for most pairs except cable which is 35 and poundyen which is 40. Duration of trades is usually 2 to 6 hours.

At present I have a long signal on UJ and a short signal on poundyen. Those are higher probability trades than cable.

Stalling at the 1 hour H&S left shoulder level....4 now.

guys please remember this thread is for CABLE ANALYSIS ONLY. Lets respect what Monarch started by honoring his wish to keep this cable anaylsis, and not trading system analysis.

@ Monarch, your wisdom has encouraged me to learn more so i went out and bought a book on technical analysis. I am hoping someday to become a great trader like you.

Also anyone have any idea on what the PPI report for USD is going to do for us cable goers?

Failing at 9666, an important resistance yesterday...

Do you think it'll drop?

On the 15M i think we have a DBHLC 1 pip apart, if there is 1 more try at 1.9666 and fails, my trade would be short on next candle formation.

No. Not till 1.9680. Because the 20/80 levels are important pound levels

Ive noticed that pound usually reacts to a higher degree around ##20 and ##80. And beside its inbetween daily pivots. Making 80 more likely.

This is about probability so that not certain

On the 4 hr chart there is a significant divergence forming between price and slow stochastic in the significant range for downtrend. The positive reversal has already virtually played out as minimum target of 9672 was virtually reached. Granted one more thrust would be nice but a turn when stoch between 55 and 65 would be very significant in terms of the move down, perhaps GBP news will give price this final thrust up and US news will be catalyst for downtrend. For now I will wait and see, but planning for this move down as it has the potential to be large.

Yesterday GBP completed 112 pips, making a high of 1.9706 & low of 1.9592. Today, as per GMT time, the low has been @ 1.9605.

Cable has often retraced to 78.6 fibo of the previous days high or low b4 turning in the other direction.

The 78.6 fibo 4 yesterday's downward movement stands @ 1.9682.

Taking todays low @ 1.9605 + 78.6[upwards movement]=1.9684

Based on this HYPOTHESIS, I am looking 2 go short IF the 9682-85 area provides good resistance 4 todays upwards movement. The technicals taken into consideration r just fibos & trendlines. No trade advice....Just an opinion

Here is the 15 min chart...

Lets see what news brings us at 4:30am EST and then the 8:30am EST...

A

Yeah... Yesterday no 1hr-candle closed above 9680s....

Thanks forexnovice and leugimp, well said. Good entry is always not my forte. When will i truly learn.

Keep us posted... I like your calls.

its an area between 50 and 80.

look at november monthly bar. close 60
december open 60
no daily bar that closed above has been able to sustain it.

I'm watching the strength of the move. It looks like it has some left to go. 15 minute chart with only 1 bear candle so far

D1 chart has a nice retracement on a pin bar which lines up nicely with the left eye just as a head and shoulders pattern...
A

Hi all
Is it o.k to short GBP/USD now?
Thankx
Banda

Fibs...
Low 9606 - (started this move up)
High 9667 - (few moments ago)

38% = 9643 (we're on it)
61.8% = 9629

All depend on PPI result and TIC report...

today's high already?

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/664/scalppo6.gif