Attachments: Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

#6,061
Mar 7, 2008 2:56am Mar 7, 2008 2:56am

Turtle
| Joined May 2007 | Status: Trader | 4,716 Posts

Quoting DutchTrader

Disliked

UJ looks headed for sub 100

Ignored

Sure does...Asia is getting creamed, and we haven't gotten to NFP yet.

HOLLA

#6,062
Mar 7, 2008 3:14am Mar 7, 2008 3:14am

DutchTrader
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

Quoting Turtle

Disliked

Sure does...Asia is getting creamed, and we haven't gotten to NFP yet.

HOLLA

Ignored

Oh and you know once the blokes get a hold of things it's a wrap.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

#6,063
Mar 7, 2008 3:23am Mar 7, 2008 3:23am

MPP
Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts

just caught this - any views on effects?

09:18 GBP/USD: Consolidating Gains Above 2.0100, Fed Rumour Underpins London, March 7. Cable is consolidating gains to an early Europe 11-week peak of 2.0160, with a rumour that the Fed might deliver an emergency Fed Funds rate cut after today"s 13:30GMT US February employment release helping underpin. The market is understandably nervous about the risk of another emergency FF cut, in the light of the unscheduled 75bp cut delivered on January 22.
There is conjecture that if the Fed does deliver an emergency FF cut today, then it is most likely to be a 50bp reduction to 2.5%--and that this could be followed by a 25bp cut to 2.25% at the next scheduled FOMC meeting on March 18 (the FOMC followed up the 75bp Jan 22 cut with a 50bp cut on Jan 30).
Some option-related supply might emerge ahead of 2.0200 if cable extends north towards the level. There is speculation that an exotic option barrier might reside at 2.0200. Confirmed exotic option exposure is located at 2.0250 and 2.0300. Sterling support points include 2.0100 (former option barrier level) and 2.0082 (today"s Asian session base). [email protected]

#6,064
Mar 7, 2008 3:29am Mar 7, 2008 3:29am

DutchTrader
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

Market rumours are circulating of an [EMERGENCY RATE CUT] by the Fed on Frid mrg, soon after the release of the US jobs rpt, following Thurs night's heightened turmoil in the credit mkts. The credit crunch is now said to be turning into a new and more dangerous phase, with news that mortgage lender Thornburg and invt firm Carlyle Capital had both missed margin calls, stoking fears over a wave of hedge fund liquidations and fire sales of assets. With both having significant holdings of mortgage backed securities, the latter mkt has literally collapsed, with sprds widening out to record wide lvls. Libor spreads are also back out, whilst a frenzy of safe haven Tsy buying say the 2yr note dip below 1.5% to its lowest since March 2004. US s/t rate futures otherwise rallied to new highs after the Wall St close, boosting the implied chances of an aggressive 75bps cut by the Fed this mth to 88% vs 54% on Wed 22:12 GMT - [FED DISCOUNT WINDOW BORROWING] Primary credit borrowing at the Fed's Discount Window rose $186 mln on a weekly avg basis to $355 mln in the week ending Mar 5. However, borrowing on Wed was only $34 mln, down $649 mln from the prior Wed. The biggest reductions in borrowing were $331 mln in the San Francisco Federal Reserve District, $184 mln in NY, and $119 mln in the Cleveland District.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

#6,065
Mar 7, 2008 3:48am Mar 7, 2008 3:48am

MPP
Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts

Attached Image

#6,066
Mar 7, 2008 4:06am Mar 7, 2008 4:06am

fsiltd
| Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Fudōshin | 739 Posts

Quoting fsiltd

Disliked

Dang!...
Hang Seng 22,610.22; -732.51; -3.14%

Ignored

I thought that was bad...

-841.40 -3.60%

Carpe Divitiae

#6,067
Mar 7, 2008 4:50am Mar 7, 2008 4:50am

Ash
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Never Give In | 2,518 Posts

Quoting DutchTrader

Disliked

Market rumours are circulating of an [EMERGENCY RATE CUT] by the Fed on Frid mrg, soon after the release of the US jobs rpt, following Thurs night's heightened turmoil in the credit mkts. The credit crunch is now said to be turning into a new and more dangerous phase, with news that mortgage lender Thornburg and invt firm Carlyle Capital had both missed margin calls, stoking fears over a wave of hedge fund liquidations and fire sales of assets. With both having significant holdings of mortgage backed securities, the latter mkt has literally collapsed, with sprds widening out to record wide lvls. Libor spreads are also back out, whilst a frenzy of safe haven Tsy buying say the 2yr note dip below 1.5% to its lowest since March 2004. US s/t rate futures otherwise rallied to new highs after the Wall St close, boosting the implied chances of an aggressive 75bps cut by the Fed this mth to 88% vs 54% on Wed 22:12 GMT - [FED DISCOUNT WINDOW BORROWING] Primary credit borrowing at the Fed's Discount Window rose $186 mln on a weekly avg basis to $355 mln in the week ending Mar 5. However, borrowing on Wed was only $34 mln, down $649 mln from the prior Wed. The biggest reductions in borrowing were $331 mln in the San Francisco Federal Reserve District, $184 mln in NY, and $119 mln in the Cleveland District.

Ignored

If that is the case ( I hope not as we need the markets to keep on heading down to around 10.5-11.5 on the Dow to find a bottom).

Branco, I would recommend that you keep your S/L's tight because if there is a rate cut, expect some violent movement with the equity markets.

Sell the $!

Humble Lifetime Member

#6,068
Mar 7, 2008 4:55am Mar 7, 2008 4:55am

DutchTrader
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

Quoting Ash

Disliked

If that is the case ( I hope not as we need the markets to keep on heading down to around 10.5-11.5 on the Dow to find a bottom).

Branco, I would recommend that you keep your S/L's tight because if there is a rate cut, expect some violent movement with the equity markets.

Sell the $!

Ignored

I doubt that will happen, but who knows the fact its out there guarantees some tight shorts on Wall St this AM. Time for a nap, I'll be back for NFP.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

#6,069
Mar 7, 2008 4:58am Mar 7, 2008 4:58am

Ash
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Never Give In | 2,518 Posts

Quoting DutchTrader

Disliked

I doubt that will happen, but who knows the fact its out there guarantees some tight shorts on Wall St this AM. Time for a nap, I'll be back for NFP.

Ignored

I doubt it too but anything can happen with the FED and Wall Street.

Humble Lifetime Member

#6,070
Mar 7, 2008 6:12am Mar 7, 2008 6:12am

DutchTrader
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

http://www.doversherborn.org/doverel...les/Canada.jpg

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

#6,071
Mar 7, 2008 7:01am Mar 7, 2008 7:01am

Big Wave Rider
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: C.E.O of BWR Investment firm | 4,736 Posts

Look at that gap

Just Trade It

#6,072
Mar 7, 2008 7:04am Mar 7, 2008 7:04am

branco
| Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 236 Posts

That Fed rate cut is just wishful thinking because we are getting close to the area where the Fed did one emergency cut.

Boys... this is going to burn. Maybe jobs report puts some water but otherwise... Dow 10.5 and DAX 5.8 are my targets