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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #2,161
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:11pm Jan 16, 2007 2:11pm
Cheers bundy, much appreciated
For the higher fibo i either see 76.4 or 78.6, which is the correct fibo %?

H

Quoting bundyraider
OK. Not a major player, but I'll enter wherever there's a good sign of a reversal. If, when zooming down on the timeframes I get, for example, a really good pin off of of the 38.2% (Or 50 or whatever) on the 1 hour chart I'll get in straight away. On the 4 huor chart is even stronger and I'll be even more confident. Especially if that pin is broken in the right direction as well. Much better again.

My favourite entry is at the higher fibs though (61.8, 76.4 area) I'll quite often get in on the any good sign that things aren't going any further. You get a tight stop anyway. Your often risking such a small amount of pips for a very much larger possible gain. SeekingLight likes this area too.

Entry for me can also depend on what the chart looks like when zoomed out.
If the daily pin came along in , say, a funny spot on the long term chart, I am a lot more cautious and will even wait for a further BUB or BEB to confirm the retracement is over.

But that's just me.

Cheers
,Bundy
  • #2,162
  • Jan 16, 2007 3:49pm Jan 16, 2007 3:49pm
Us Dollar


Getting Stronger ? ................Will price eventually touch 2500 ?
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  • #2,163
  • Jan 16, 2007 3:51pm Jan 16, 2007 3:51pm
Look here also ......

Us Dollar has internals !..............
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  • #2,164
  • Jan 16, 2007 3:56pm Jan 16, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting H103EFA
I have been wondering the same thing myself. I would guess that most ppl enter on a 50% retrace but views from the major players on this thread would be much appreciated.
Hi.
Like Bundy already said I also would rather use the .618 and the .786 fibs.
I noticed that a lot of the time almost the exact middle is pivotal as well.
When trading a pin bar per orders I would use the 61.8% retracement plus or minus the spread.
There are some of the more bigger timeframe pins that will only retrace to the level of the left eye, i.e. the high of the prior bar, but I would ONLY enter at that price if price action itself indicated that it would most likely indeed be a kicking off point.

As with all entries on BEOB/BUOB/DBLHC/DBHLC etc pp I advise you look a bit to the left where a high is at that's near the middle of the setup that you just took, or a low of a prior range etc.
Usually things retrace quite a bit before heading out for good, although sometimes you miss seeing the retrace if it happened on a smaller timeframe. Entering on break is always tricky and a risky business as the market just loves fakeouts. So do this at your own peril.

They're a bit counterintuitive and take a bit of practice, but they can save a lot of pips. If you look over the last 100 posts you will find a LOT of examples for retrace entries (quite a few should be from me) and I should mention how I handle / think about Pins, too.

And btw, I used to chart for months on candles, switching to bars was no problem at all, you transition within 2-3 weeks and suddenly it's like you never used anything else


On another note, to requote a Playwright: Is this a Pin Bar which I see before me, it's lying nose pointed toward the hills?
Come, let me trade thee!



Best regards,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,165
  • Jan 16, 2007 7:30pm Jan 16, 2007 7:30pm
Looks like there are wuite a few PB's on the Daily's today. Well see how they play.

A quick question aboutt he retrace you guys are talking about. I assume you mean a ratrace of the PA bar. E.G in the following chart there is a PB I have drawn a Fib Ret on. Is this correct or have I drawn the Fib Ret upside down?
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  • #2,166
  • Jan 16, 2007 7:42pm Jan 16, 2007 7:42pm
squash make sure you draw ur fib on that bar the other way. If you notice the left eye lines up exactly on the 61.8%. I think this is what you meant to do.
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  • #2,167
  • Jan 16, 2007 7:51pm Jan 16, 2007 7:51pm
Yep thats what I was talking about. Thanks Mike.
  • #2,168
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:10pm Jan 16, 2007 8:10pm
It's important to look for more then just a PA bar. For those who decide to play this bar short look back for more reasons. Here is what i mean. This bar is not at a great swing high, but could be though as a retracement. It is the 23.6 retracement off the current move. Not show on my chart.

Best
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  • #2,169
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:47pm Jan 16, 2007 9:47pm
Hi all. I am having such bad days recently. Is that because the end and the beginning of the year? or simply ME? It just happens every time I start to follow a method then about 2 month later, I start to fail so bad. I will try to go back to basics and do all over again. So I don't mean to crowd this thread with repeated questions, but anyone care to help me?
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  • #2,170
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:57pm Jan 16, 2007 9:57pm
Quoting sch305ny
Hi all. I am having such bad days recently. Is that because the end and the beginning of the year? or simply ME? It just happens every time I start to follow a method then about 2 month later, I start to fail so bad. I will try to go back to basics and do all over again. So I don't mean to crowd this thread with repeated questions, but anyone care to help me?
Don't get discouraged. The worst thing is to move from method to method without giving it long enough of a chance to master and make your own. The chart you posted is a pin bar and it is at resistance. Some notes. I notice a LOT of people love to play the retrace of these bars to minimize stops. I am all for that, but everyone needs to remember that just because a pin bar shows up doesn't mean its vaild. Not until price breaks the low(in this case). Yes you will have smaller stops, but you will also be in more trades that don't work out. It's just the nature of playing it this way.

Don't be discouraged and keep at it!

chart on diff ways to enter and aggresiveness of the play

Best,
Mike
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  • #2,171
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:12pm Jan 16, 2007 10:12pm
Just getting ready to post this. Repeat
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  • #2,172
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:28pm Jan 16, 2007 10:28pm
Moving from method to method, system to system is definately a killer. I did this when I first started and went no where for all the effort I put in. Thankfully I found this thread and decided it was worth a read, it suited me style well and so far I'm sticking with it and it's working for me. What sucks now is I'm gogin backpacking for 6 weeks in Europe and I'm scared I may forget it all.

RE PB's. So far I only play breaks of PB's as in no 2 in Mike's example. I find this the safest way to play. All this talk of retracement has got me doing some demo testing though.
  • #2,173
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:29pm Jan 16, 2007 10:29pm
Thanks Mike! That is exactly what I did, one method to the other. I started with all the Vegas methods, Sidus, Mouteki, etc... This time around, the PA is the only one give me the confidence when I trade. Of course, some doesn't work out, but good mm with PA. I love the fact that I know how much I will loose in the worst case scenario. But recently I have been loosing every trade because I don't know when to get out. I don't mean that I am greedy on every trade. I try move s/l to BE after +30 and close the half of the trade, what do I do with the other half? I haven't done anything because it usually turn around on me and hit s/l. Rest of the trades I've made didn't hit +30 anyways. Most of my TP is set with vegas daily lines. Is there any better way to set TP? (knowing you guys are going to say it depends how comfortable I am).....

By the way, with your chart Mike, I put the entry on 50 ret on the pin bar. I know that would be another aggressive trade, but since I am loosing most of the trade, I needed to have less s/l. Am I making mistake thinking that way?

Sawa
  • #2,174
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:40pm Jan 16, 2007 10:40pm
Quoting sch305ny
Thanks Mike! That is exactly what I did, one method to the other. I started with all the Vegas methods, Sidus, Mouteki, etc... This time around, the PA is the only one give me the confidence when I trade. Of course, some doesn't work out, but good mm with PA. I love the fact that I know how much I will loose in the worst case scenario. But recently I have been loosing every trade because I don't know when to get out. I don't mean that I am greedy on every trade. I try move s/l to BE after +30 and close the half of the trade, what do I do with the other half? I haven't done anything because it usually turn around on me and hit s/l. Rest of the trades I've made didn't hit +30 anyways. Most of my TP is set with vegas daily lines. Is there any better way to set TP? (knowing you guys are going to say it depends how comfortable I am).....

By the way, with your chart Mike, I put the entry on 50 ret on the pin bar. I know that would be another aggressive trade, but since I am loosing most of the trade, I needed to have less s/l. Am I making mistake thinking that way?

Sawa
I know how your feeling Sawa. I haven't tried all the methods here on the forum, but I am sure if you use PA with them they could be that much better. I know for a fact using PA with vegas helps immensly(and is needed for the VWB).

As for take profits. This is the question that kept me up the most nights. Firstly I will say, it is somehting you have to just practice over and over. I am still getting the hang of it and probably will be for a long time. If I make a trade on the smaller timeframes I get my stops to b/e ASAP. No reason to let a winner turn to a loser on the smaller timeframes. As for targets, using PA, S/R Fib extensions, Pivot levels. All are good targets, especially when they line up. For the closing partial and letting the other partial run. I did this for a long time and was very uncomfortable with this method. For the simple math fact if you are closing half at +30 and letting the last half run and hits your b/e most times. And then your stop is 60, your already fighting an uphill battle depending on your win/loss ratio. I went back over ALL my old trades and simply took full profit at the first level I exited at, and my bottom line greatly increased. I was profitable both ways, but much more so taking full profit. Others are more comfortable with letting partial run for psychological/emotional purposes and have better results that way.

PA is not a system, so it takes a feeling out process.

I hope this helps,
Mike

Edit*
Another thing I would like to mention. Since I started trading PA, I have gradually taught myself to take the best trades. This way I don't have that urge to move my stops up too soon. It is very easy to want to move your stops up quickly when you see profit because it erks people to lose at this. You have to get that emotional attachment gone from your trading. That was a bump in the road for me. Now I am able to hold trades longer and let my profits run. It's a give and take in the market. One day your up 100 the next only 40. Its like waves in the ocean as the tides come in. The tide is coming in(profits) but the waves are constantly retreating during this process. END RAMBLE lol
  • #2,175
  • Jan 17, 2007 4:58am Jan 17, 2007 4:58am
Guys, I think we're trapped.
Unless we break below those two s/r lines and cable dives back under 1.9600 it's looking very slosh-rangy here :/
Also if EURUSD jumps the TL hurdle it will become support and it might run away..

I've already gotten tricked out by a 1h EJ pin dying only to get a significant bounce from the stop-killing s/r dip after all and cable doesn't seem to want to quit either.
EURGBP dying in small increments, as usual.
So because of all the silly cross action instead of real dollar based moves everythings a bit hard to recognize....

But since Habeeb asked for more fiber I thought I'd send him a big pack of Kellog's Special K, Raisin Bran and a EURUSD chart
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,176
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:19am Jan 17, 2007 5:19am
Btw, rummaging through the old chart collection I found this, was asking back then whether a formation of daily bars on GBPCHF might be a Head&Shoulders, seems it pretty much was....some sort of bullish thing anyway.
There was a good retrace to a s/r level where it found support before blasting off into outer space...bit further than I would have felt comfortable with, but that's crosses for you, they do that. Notice that the right shoulder made a BUOB off 2.3410 that would have made a great entry, even better with the retrace entry at the other s/r line at 2.3484.

Notice how ghastly charts can get with too many things on them

It's a good example for the use of price projection for targets, too.

Also this market is driving me insane and I needed to post SOMETHING :S
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,177
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:32am Jan 17, 2007 5:32am
Quoting SeekingLight
But since Habeeb asked for more fiber I thought I'd send him a big pack of Kellog's Special K, Raisin Bran and a EURUSD chart
Thanx for breakfast SeekingLight:
Since we got Daily Pins on cable and fiber, I'm looking to short. First target for fiber 1.2870, then 1.2650.
Just got a pin on cable 15m chart, which led to a 1hr pin, which could eventually give us a 4hr pin. First target is 1.9585, then 1.9490.
But with red-flag news today, the charts could be messed up again
Keeping it Simple
  • #2,178
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:44am Jan 17, 2007 5:44am
Quoting habeeb
But with red-flag news today, the charts could be messed up again
Too right! :

I'm actually short cable already. LOL ( 1.9668)

Shouldn't be though. With USD/JPY finally making a move (down), I'm wondering if could tip the balance the other way. Yen pairs moving.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #2,179
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:57am Jan 17, 2007 5:57am
Quoting habeeb
Thanx for breakfast SeekingLight:
Since we got Daily Pins on cable and fiber, I'm looking to short. First target for fiber 1.2870, then 1.2650.
Just got a pin on cable 15m chart, which led to a 1hr pin, which could eventually give us a 4hr pin. First target is 1.9585, then 1.9490.
But with red-flag news today, the charts could be messed up again
Wow I must be doing something right as I have very similar first TP's as you Habbeb. Within 10 pips. Gives me some confidence.

Bundy, just wondering if your shorting Cable on the retrace to the first eye? I thought about it with a very small amount but still scared of retrace entries on PB's.
  • #2,180
  • Jan 17, 2007 6:09am Jan 17, 2007 6:09am
well with all you guys shorting the pound and fiber, I like to be different and have been long on our good friend swissy. Guess all these are waiting for all this US news. Also been short eur/aud and eur/cad(my fav pair GOGOGO) up some pips
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