4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 628 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,541
  • Edited Mar 6, 2008 6:08am Mar 5, 2008 9:32pm | Edited Mar 6, 2008 6:08am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I only stay out completely on interest and NFP news. If the rhythm and MACD gives a signal like today with that tail it tells me they were prepared to take it down and then something happened(news might have leaked out) that turned it around to the upside like that engulfing candle. I allways will trade the turnaround after a false breakout if it is confirmed by candle emotion.

I also entered on a retracement strategy as dicussed several times on the thread. If one has to stay out when the rhythm and MACD confirms direction just because there is news coming out then trading oppertunities will be few. My backtesting for 2 years up to Jan2007 showed +300pips per month without taking news in account. The MACD movement and signal supports the news more then not.
Hi Phillip,
I have learned a lot from you and my AHA moment was coming from this thread if I have.
But I find that I can learn new thing from your posts continually. Now I know on what news I should stand out, on what news I can enter. your explanation is very helpful.
Now I have another 3 questions, could you help to answer? Thanks.

1, Now which currency pairs do you trade by 4h strategy? I remembered that you traded eurusd and gbpusd firstly, then you added usdchf and eurjpy to your watch list. But in recent mp3, I found that you usually mentioned usdjpy, usdcad, audusd but not eurjpy in my memory. Do you also trade usdjpy, usdcad and audusd? Do you not trade eurjpy any longer?

2, In your 5m stragety description, you mentioned that trader should take maximum 3 deals per day to avoid the bad overtrade emotion. Do you have similar rule to the 4h strategy?

3, I am not sure whether you missed the little question on post #12363 last week. Could you help answer it here?

In present I only trade on the eurusd, gpbusd and usdchf pairs. Because I have done all 7 years' historical H4 charts homework for this 3 pairs and now I am familiar with them.
I only take maximum 1 deal per day by 4h strategy because I only have several hours to do the trade on evening. Somtimes there is no chance to do the trade on the 3 pairs. So I also think whether I should add usdjpy and audusd pairs to my watch list for increasing some trade chances?
Could you give me some suggestion?
You always give me surprise.
Cheers
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,542
  • Mar 6, 2008 12:21am Mar 6, 2008 12:21am
Quoting aihua5
Hi James,
Your time and price indicators are very beautiful. I like them very much.
Could you please share them?
Thanks a lot.
Cheers
Aihua
我们能在这里使用汉语交谈吗？哈哈哈哈
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #12,543
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:19am Mar 6, 2008 2:19am
Quoting saka
我们能在这里使用汉语交谈吗？哈哈哈哈
maybe someone would like to translate your Chinese into English
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #12,544
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:56am Mar 6, 2008 2:56am
eurchf breaked the monthly TL to down and now making a triangle to go south
where r u ryan???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #12,545
  • Mar 6, 2008 3:25am Mar 6, 2008 3:25am
Quoting unlv_tj
USDCAD?

I considered, but I passed because this pair has been sporatic this week, and the 8 and 21 EMA's are all crossed up.

I am temped to take it after this 4 hour bar closes, if it stays in the negative MACD (Zero Cross), but I would only expect 20 to 25 pips max.
well,lets look at the bigger picture maybe u agree with me
we are in a down channel in daily and price breaked TL#1 and went south and then pulled back and see TL#1 again
now... we have 2 senarios 1 and 2 wich i show on picture.i think 1 in more possible
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #12,546
  • Edited 11:24pm Mar 6, 2008 5:20am | Edited 11:24pm
Buy usdchf @ 1.0323, BE 20, TP @1.0376, SL @ 1.0277.
Reason: far away from 8ema, long tail, 1H bullish emotion.

Edit1: Go to sleep. Will see the result tommrow. Till now I still believe in the SL is not easy to hit. But who knows...

Edit2: Stoped out. -46 pips.
Loss is the part of this game. Never risk more than 5%(equity < 10,000$) is enough.

Lesson: The tail is only 44, the body is 33, and this is a red hammer. The emotion is not enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfh4.jpg Size: 172 KB
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,547
  • Edited 12:20pm Mar 6, 2008 5:26am | Edited 12:20pm
Sell JPYUSD 103.45
SL 104.05

Closed half my position at 103.08 (+37)
Set the rest to BE with a TP at 102.68.

Set to BE at 102.20.

Closed remainder at 102.95 (+50), average 43.5 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy 306.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #12,548
  • Mar 6, 2008 5:31am Mar 6, 2008 5:31am
Quoting Morelands
Coulld you explain to a me why you didn't take the break out to the down side on the pound, do a fib retracement off the large candle and then go short. I did and got burned. What am i missing?

Hi there Morelands,

I know you asked the question to Nadia, and I hope she doesn't mind me wading in with my thoughts!

We need a bit more detail on your trade to fully answer your question, but what I think you did was enter short after the close of the large bear candle, believing the break of the triangle to be a true break. Phillip also anticipated a move down and also lost a few pips, so there's certainly no shame there!!

I think what may have happened is simply the difference between experience and inexperience; to go short on the pound at that time would have been a counter trend trade. Remember that price was still above the 89sma. Our basic rules are that activity above the 89sma is said to be in a bull trend and below is bearish. Any short trades taken whilst price is still above the 89sma will be counter trend (CT).

CT trades can look really beguiling and tempt you with promise of riches, but they are so often just teasing you!

At the beginning of your fx career, only take trades in the direction of the trend, no matter how tempting CT trades may look. The experienced fx traders can, and do, make money counter trending, but they have the rules in their heart and the instinct in their gut to know when to get out of a false move.

My one tip for all new traders is this: Practise only going with the trend for now, only on the 4hr charts, and only one one pair. That is how you can learn and fully understand about rhythm and motion and emotion, without getting sidetracked by false moves and flurries of activity in lots of other places.You will see posts of people getting trades where you are not, but so what? Be happy for them and happy that you are learning and will sooner or later be one of the experienced ones!

You have posted some great questions Morelands, so we know you are keen to soak up all the knowledge you can. I wish you all the best in your quest for your own personal AHA moment, stick with this thread and it'll be with you sooner than you know!

Also, don't forget money management is crucial to survive this game. If you get burned on one trade, make sure you still have reserves to get burned several more times and still be able to trade. I lost 5 or 6 times in a row and am now slowly making it back towards the black. My mistakes were novice, emotional ones but boy, did I learn! I still had over 90% of my account intact, despite the losses, because I never trade more than I can afford to lose - not just at any one time, but if I mess up several times in a row. Burning hurts, but blowing yourself up would be far worse!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,549
  • Edited 6:03am Mar 6, 2008 5:42am | Edited 6:03am
Buy GBPUSD 1.9941
Stop: 1.9895
TP1: 1.9966

SL was large, but it bounced off intersecting TLs.

TP1 hit. SL moved to BE. Let's see if it reaches the big 2.00.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp 306.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #12,550
  • Mar 6, 2008 5:49am Mar 6, 2008 5:49am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi there Morelands,

I know you asked the question to Nadia, and I hope she doesn't mind me wading in with my thoughts!

We need a bit more detail on your trade to fully answer your question, but what I think you did was enter short after the close of the large bear candle, believing the break of the triangle to be a true break. Phillip also anticipated a move down and also lost a few pips, so there's certainly no shame there!!

I think what may have happened is simply the difference between experience and inexperience; to go short on the pound at that time would have been a counter trend trade. Remember that price was still above the 89sma. Our basic rules are that activity above the 89sma is said to be in a bull trend and below is bearish. Any short trades taken whilst price is still above the 89sma will be counter trend (CT).

CT trades can look really beguiling and tempt you with promise of riches, but they are so often just teasing you!

At the beginning of your fx career, only take trades in the direction of the trend, no matter how tempting CT trades may look. The experienced fx traders can, and do, make money counter trending, but they have the rules in their heart and the instinct in their gut to know when to get out of a false move.

My one tip for all new traders is this: Practise only going with the trend for now, only on the 4hr charts, and only one one pair. That is how you can learn and fully understand about rhythm and motion and emotion, without getting sidetracked by false moves and flurries of activity in lots of other places.You will see posts of people getting trades where you are not, but so what? Be happy for them and happy that you are learning and will sooner or later be one of the experienced ones!

You have posted some great questions Morelands, so we know you are keen to soak up all the knowledge you can. I wish you all the best in your quest for your own personal AHA moment, stick with this thread and it'll be with you sooner than you know!

Also, don't forget money management is crucial to survive this game. If you get burned on one trade, make sure you still have reserves to get burned several more times and still be able to trade. I lost 5 or 6 times in a row and am now slowly making it back towards the black. My mistakes were novice, emotional ones but boy, did I learn! I still had over 90% of my account intact, despite the losses, because I never trade more than I can afford to lose - not just at any one time, but if I mess up several times in a row. Burning hurts, but blowing yourself up would be far worse!
Thank you for taking the time to explain. I still just trading a demo account and keep my losses small, but I just hate it when things don't go right. I know my trading will improve especially with all the help I'm receiving from this thread. Many thanks again
Raymond
  • #12,551
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:29am Mar 6, 2008 6:29am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi there Morelands,

I know you asked the question to Nadia, and I hope she doesn't mind me wading in with my thoughts!

We need a bit more detail on your trade to fully answer your question, but what I think you did was enter short after the close of the large bear candle, believing the break of the triangle to be a true break. Phillip also anticipated a move down and also lost a few pips, so there's certainly no shame there!!

I think what may have happened is simply the difference between experience and inexperience; to go short on the pound at that time would have been a counter trend trade. Remember that price was still above the 89sma. Our basic rules are that activity above the 89sma is said to be in a bull trend and below is bearish. Any short trades taken whilst price is still above the 89sma will be counter trend (CT).

CT trades can look really beguiling and tempt you with promise of riches, but they are so often just teasing you!

At the beginning of your fx career, only take trades in the direction of the trend, no matter how tempting CT trades may look. The experienced fx traders can, and do, make money counter trending, but they have the rules in their heart and the instinct in their gut to know when to get out of a false move.

My one tip for all new traders is this: Practise only going with the trend for now, only on the 4hr charts, and only one one pair. That is how you can learn and fully understand about rhythm and motion and emotion, without getting sidetracked by false moves and flurries of activity in lots of other places.You will see posts of people getting trades where you are not, but so what? Be happy for them and happy that you are learning and will sooner or later be one of the experienced ones!

You have posted some great questions Morelands, so we know you are keen to soak up all the knowledge you can. I wish you all the best in your quest for your own personal AHA moment, stick with this thread and it'll be with you sooner than you know!

Also, don't forget money management is crucial to survive this game. If you get burned on one trade, make sure you still have reserves to get burned several more times and still be able to trade. I lost 5 or 6 times in a row and am now slowly making it back towards the black. My mistakes were novice, emotional ones but boy, did I learn! I still had over 90% of my account intact, despite the losses, because I never trade more than I can afford to lose - not just at any one time, but if I mess up several times in a row. Burning hurts, but blowing yourself up would be far worse!
Rebecca,
I really love reading your article. You English sentence is very graceful even though I am not a native English speaker.
I can not agree your money management more. I remembered what Kathy Lien said "Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade". I will never risk more than 5% per trade now even I think one trade have 100%(impossible) high probablility.
Look forward to your more pretty English posts and insightful thought about trading.
Cheers
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,552
  • Mar 6, 2008 7:28am Mar 6, 2008 7:28am
Quoting Morelands
Coulld you explain to a me why you didn't take the break out to the down side on the pound, do a fib retracement off the large candle and then go short. I did and got burned. What am i missing?
hello there, i see Rebecca has already answered the question in detail (ThankYOU)...
here is how i see the GU motion.

I try to keep it simple and take TC trades according to the Market Rhythm.
Now look at GU. it was winding around the 21 for a few days, and also in a triangle so a break out was on the cards. Now in order for it to go to 89 , price had to break 21 pull back to it and then move away down to 89. Well it did break . pulled back but the move away to 89 candle never formed,. if you enter just on the pull back you are entereing purely on anticipation and not confirmation, i think both are equally important.

Now look at GU today. it broke out of the triangle. pulled back to the trend line and 8 ema.( which is also acceptable ). and moved away with a TC, what a beauty, i would have taken it but there was interest rate announcement, so decided to stay out.

I hope this answered your question. Trade well., and feel free to ask,

Nadia,.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu today tc.jpg Size: 212 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,553
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:15am Mar 6, 2008 8:15am
Quoting Morelands
Coulld you explain to a me why you didn't take the break out to the down side on the pound, do a fib retracement off the large candle and then go short. I did and got burned. What am i missing?
Where was the MACD signal indicating a down move? Check my post : 12497 that will give you a bigger picture of what is going on - hence why you should not have taken a shot to the down side.

Cheers WG
  • #12,554
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:21am Mar 6, 2008 8:21am
Quoting Hookem28
Sell JPYUSD 103.45
SL 104.05
TP1: 102.94

Set to BE at 102.20.
The risk of this deal is too poor mate: Risk - 0.85

With the MACD system you should only take trades which are .90+

Cheers
WG
  • #12,555
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:47am Mar 6, 2008 8:47am
Quoting welshguy2000
The risk of this deal is too poor mate: Risk - 0.85

With the MACD system you should only take trades which are .90+

Cheers
WG
I hear you, but I trade the JPY a little differently because of the large wicks. The SL is an emergency measure. Usually I close the trade based on the market motion, and will close a bad trade long before it hits my SL. Candlestick formations often play a large role in exiting a trade.
I trade the GBP and Euro with more defined SL and TPs, though I'll use candlestick formations to TP on very positive trades (like today's GBP move).
  • #12,556
  • Edited 10:10am Mar 6, 2008 9:40am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting saka
我们能在这里使用汉语交谈吗？哈哈哈哈

Here we can use Chinese conversation?

I will catch you if you talk bad here. Only joking.

尼斯看到一些人的东风，线程以及。希望你的人作出了很多点子。
Hope you can understand this.
Phillip
  • #12,557
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:08am Mar 6, 2008 10:08am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 06 March2008.zip   821 KB | 1,128 downloads
  • #12,558
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:25am Mar 6, 2008 10:25am
Hey, you can do your wrap up in Chinese, and we can read them in "broken" english (translated)....

Quoting Phillip Nel
Here we can use Chinese conversation?

I will catch you if you talk bad here. Only joking.

尼斯看到一些人的东风，线程以及。希望你的人作出了很多点子。
Hope you can understand this.
Phillip
  • #12,559
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:52am Mar 6, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Hi Phillip I just listened to the wrapup and I have a question. The G/U did the false breakout yesterday and then moved up and retraced back. The retrace back was 2 4H red candles both with green MACD. On the 1H there were 2 red bars then a doji (all red MACD) then a huge candle up which would have made R/R not very good on the trade.

So what I wonder about is where/what would have been the place to enter? The 1H doji looks promising but there is no MACD backup on the 1H and the 4H had hit the top trend line so could have looked as if it was simply not going to breakout to the other side.
  • #12,560
  • Mar 6, 2008 11:45am Mar 6, 2008 11:45am
Hi ,
I was wondering what is wrong here.As rule says when price breaks the 21(Candle 1) and then come back to 21(next candle) ,then it goes to 89(which we had green MACD),but it didn't happened.

Am I wrong somewhere with this rule?

Regards
mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 18 KB
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
9 traders viewing now