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  • #101
  • Mar 4, 2008 2:04am Mar 4, 2008 2:04am
Thought of buying GBPUSD @ 1.9875 based on my system giving me a signal on the preceding 4hr candle close.Plus bullish MACD Divergence. TP @ 1.9975.
SL @ 1.9799
Left the trade because price is in an area of heavy resistance and could pull back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4hr daily.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #102
  • Mar 4, 2008 2:06am Mar 4, 2008 2:06am
My high probability signals aren't really showing me anything at the moment. Waiting on signals to pull the trigger on all charts.
  • #103
  • Mar 5, 2008 2:03am Mar 5, 2008 2:03am
Quoting Doji Star
Thought of buying GBPUSD @ 1.9875 based on my system giving me a signal on the preceding 4hr candle close.Plus bullish MACD Divergence. TP @ 1.9975.
SL @ 1.9799
Left the trade because price is in an area of heavy resistance and could pull back.
Good thing I left yesterday's buy signal, because there's a strong sell signal forming on GU 4hr.
Trend continuation forming on MACD. Candle will close in 3 hrs time.Wait for confirmation.Support +-70 pips away is a good target.Ideal stop would be 1.984 just above lower trendline.It's an excellent risk:reward ratio.
I'll wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4hr.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #104
  • Mar 5, 2008 2:13am Mar 5, 2008 2:13am
Tweezer bottom indicates movement up. Could be just a slight retracement before going further down. I think market is eyeing the big NFP news on Friday before a significant move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #105
  • Mar 5, 2008 10:06am Mar 5, 2008 10:06am
Quoting Doji Star
Good thing I left yesterday's buy signal, because there's a strong sell signal forming on GU 4hr.
Trend continuation forming on MACD. Candle will close in 3 hrs time.Wait for confirmation.Support +-70 pips away is a good target.Ideal stop would be 1.984 just above lower trendline.It's an excellent risk:reward ratio.
I'll wait and see.
Long tail attached to candle followed by another tail.No short confirmation here. Have to wait it out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #106
  • Mar 5, 2008 10:27pm Mar 5, 2008 10:27pm
Bought Silver Daily @ 20.905.
My system told me to go long after yesterday's candle.
SL =20.345
TP= will wait for today's or tomorrow's candle close.

CHART CONFIRMATION: Bullish engulfment. TC pattern on MACD.

WORRIES: Increased volatility recently could take out stops very quickly.
MACD oversold.
  • #107
  • Mar 6, 2008 1:33am Mar 6, 2008 1:33am
+265 pips up.
I'm locking profit in at 200 pips profit. Will lock it in in increments of 40 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #108
  • Mar 6, 2008 1:41am Mar 6, 2008 1:41am
Locking in profits at 250. Will only readjust it after tomorrow's close, provided its not taken out by then.
  • #109
  • Edited 1:59am Mar 6, 2008 1:47am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting Doji Star
+265 pips up.
I'm locking profit in at 200 pips profit. Will lock it in in increments of 40 pips.
you did a good job!
but how about long EURUSD yestoday?
bullish engulfing and MACD TC.
and how about short USDCAD?
on USDCAD chart bearish engulfing and MACD TC(although you dont trade this pair)
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #110
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:11am Mar 6, 2008 2:11am
Readjusted stop loss hit for 250 pips profit.
Sneaked up on me when I wasn't looking!!
Could've had 350...but...
Woulda, shoulda , coulda...this is all about account preservation, so I won't scoff at 250pips EVER!!
  • #111
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:39am Mar 6, 2008 2:39am
Quoting dhalsim
you did a good job!
but how about long EURUSD yestoday?
bullish engulfing and MACD TC.
and how about short USDCAD?
on USDCAD chart bearish engulfing and MACD TC(although you dont trade this pair)
Hi dhalsim. Thanks.
You're right,I don't trade the USDCAD at all.Concerning my strategy, nearly every daily chart that I follow coughed up something,all except UJ, but like I said in a previous post, I've backtested each of my three signals on each of the charts I follow. I treat them as different mini-strategies if you will.Yesterday's Silver Daily long signal had a higher probability for success than the EU Daily signal.Because of the previous two losses, I'm down to one lot per again, so even if I wanted to I couldn't take the EU yesterday. This is just a self-imposed 'punishment' I use to prevent me from taking revenge on the market after a losing trade.
The EU signal I got yesterday told me that there may not be much room further up,there may be a bit of exhaustion there, wheras Silver's signal was very strong. In recent days I've in fact been looking for a fall in Silver, but I stuck to the strategy and pulled the trigger.
It paid off today.
  • #112
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:55am Mar 6, 2008 2:55am
Quoting Doji Star
Hi dhalsim. Thanks.
You're right,I don't trade the USDCAD at all.Concerning my strategy, nearly every daily chart that I follow coughed up something,all except UJ, but like I said in a previous post, I've backtested each of my three signals on each of the charts I follow. I treat them as different mini-strategies if you will.Yesterday's Silver Daily long signal had a higher probability for success than the EU Daily signal.Because of the previous two losses, I'm down to one lot per again, so even if I wanted to I couldn't take the EU yesterday. This is just a self-imposed 'punishment' I use to prevent me from taking revenge on the market after a losing trade.
The EU signal I got yesterday told me that there may not be much room further up,there may be a bit of exhaustion there, wheras Silver's signal was very strong. In recent days I've in fact been looking for a fall in Silver, but I stuck to the strategy and pulled the trigger.
It paid off today.
good answers,
could you tell me what signal you got from USDCHF chart yestoday?
since you said that all pairs except UJ coughed up something.
and I think "punishment" is nessary for trading
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #113
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:22am Mar 6, 2008 10:22am
Yeah, forgot about swissy.

UJ and Swissy followed slightly similar retracement,like hussin calls it "stopping for sushi", so no indication on Swissy either.
  • #114
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:28am Mar 6, 2008 10:28am
Quoting Doji Star
Although I prefer "with the trend" trades, Silver is one instrument I don't mind placing "in and out" counter-trend trades on.
My reasons for this:
1) Silver is far more volatile than currency instruments. It can drop 1000 pips in a few days and still be in a raging bull market (as it clearly currently is).It's Average True Range is approximately 450 pips on the daily chart. This suits my trading strategy. My trades rarely last longer than 4-7 days.
This was taken from an earlier post.Today's Silver trade was with the trend ,but there is the danger of exhaustion. Silver is in unchartered territory, all-time record highs at the moment. Today's trade lasted all of three and a half hours even though it was off the daily chart.Shows just how profitable silver can be because of the current average daily range of 450 pips.
  • #115
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:37am Mar 6, 2008 10:37am
Trade #1 = 17 Feb GBPUSD +100 pips
Trade #2 = 19 Feb USDCHF -121 pips
Trade #3 = 25 Feb USDJPY -122 pips
Trade #4 = 6 March SILVER +250 pips
Total thus far: +107 pips
  • #116
  • Mar 6, 2008 1:33pm Mar 6, 2008 1:33pm
dear doji star buy AUDNZD and sell CADYEN and buy usdcad
  • #117
  • Mar 7, 2008 12:09am Mar 7, 2008 12:09am
Quoting Doji Star
Hi dhalsim. Thanks.
I've backtested each of my three signals on each of the charts I follow. I treat them as different mini-strategies if you will.
I think I got a signal that is MACD TC plus engulfing and morning/evening stars
but I still dont know how you exit your trade,
there are few examples up to now,
but I would like to see your perfect performance here step by step
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #118
  • Mar 7, 2008 12:19am Mar 7, 2008 12:19am
Quoting hussin naiji
dear doji star buy AUDNZD and sell CADYEN and buy usdcad
Thanks for the heads-up,hussin.
The only problem is my broker doesn't offer these pairs,only the majors,commodities,indices,bonds and US,European,Asian and South African stocks. Therefore I can only take one of the trades, the buy usdcad.
I use Water House Capital and North Finance MT4 demo account for it's charts only.They offer silver charts.
  • #119
  • Mar 7, 2008 12:48am Mar 7, 2008 12:48am
Quoting dhalsim
I think I got a signal that is MACD TC plus engulfing and morning/evening stars
but I still dont know how you exit your trade,
there are few examples up to now,
but I would like to see your perfect performance here step by step
The ideal exit points would be a risk:reward ratio of 1:1 or better.
1) I may adopt Phillip's exit point strategy of employing the MACD strategy moving averages as support/resistance exits.I'll do this if I got the MACD strategy signal.
2) I may use DeMark's trendlines or obvious longer-term trendlines as exit points.This applies to my own strategy.
3)I may use previous highs or lows as exit points.This applies to both mine and Phillip's strategy.
4)Sometimes, I'll get a signal on my strategy with a +90% win record and the various exits are lower than 1:1 r:r ratio and I'll still take it based purely on the signal's track record.In this case I'll look at the average drawdown for that signal on that particular chart over backtesting period and set the SL based on that.Backtesting shows that should the trade go against me and fall below that average drawdown, it was a false signal.
For example, on EU daily the average drawdown for the three signals on EU daily chart are as follows:
Signal 1 (83% win record) 95 pip drawdown
Signal 2 (89% win record) 69 pip drawdown
Signal 3 (93% win record) 75 pip drawdown
#As for targets, in this case, I would never let 40 pips turn into a loss, so this would be my 1st target and I'd lock profits accordingly, like I did yesterday with Silver.
#I'd adjust my targets by increments of 40 pips. I get 40 pips from one third of the daily ATR(20).
#If the trade goes against me initially,I will also lock in the profit at the close of the next maribozu candle.This usually takes one to three candles.

Hope this helps.
  • #120
  • Mar 7, 2008 12:51am Mar 7, 2008 12:51am
Quoting dhalsim
I think I got a signal that is MACD TC plus engulfing and morning/evening stars
but I still dont know how you exit your trade,
there are few examples up to now,
but I would like to see your perfect performance here step by step
Forgot to add, the MACD strategy and mine only ever overlap (sometimes) with the trend continuation signal. Here, if all else fails I'll employ the average drawdown gained over backtesting and 33% of ATR(20) as targets exit strategy.
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