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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,021
  • Jan 16, 2007 4:51pm Jan 16, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting monarch
If it does drop downwards, 1.955o area would be my first Target.

There are still a few hurdles to cross, never expect it, just project, and if it turns against you - (that is to say it goes out of the perimeters you have set) - get out and protect your profits.
When it drops (if it confirms dropping), the time will help draw the downward channel for the week - from today's high. The shaper the channel, the faster the move, deeper we'll go...

I'm wondering if Asian session's capable of moving it down to 9550... Guess so, but London open is likely to chew an unprotected profit.
  • #2,022
  • Jan 16, 2007 4:52pm Jan 16, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting obeewon
diverg on 1hr chart went short @ 9678 t/p 9575. also looks like doji forming on 4hr

still waiting for t/p to hit. may hit during asian session
  • #2,023
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:02pm Jan 16, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting monarch
Upon a review of my calculations, we should close this Hourly candle at 1.9605 or below.
Quoting monarch

This would place the price under the 1.9606 mark, and strengthen the confirmation of a drop further to come.

Still waiting for a break below the 1.9590 on the Hourly also.

This is not a trade signal or recommendation, it is for analysis only.


Okay that was stressfull, projecting a price before its time, even though it is a few pips I am talking about, it is an important line to break.

1.9606 still held on the Hourly, I thought 1.9505 would be the new Open on this hour, I will now have to wait, and eat a little crow for making such a bold projection.

This is still the point to break, we will hang on for a while longer to see what happens.
  • #2,024
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:07pm Jan 16, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
When it drops (if it confirms dropping), the time will help draw the downward channel for the week - from today's high. The shaper the channel, the faster the move, deeper we'll go...

I'm wondering if Asian session's capable of moving it down to 9550... Guess so, but London open is likely to chew an unprotected profit.
I have been watching the Weekly channel, and I am seeing us at the top of the lower channel, but with todays downward movement, it is revealing a continual drop to come.

Another point to consider, is the 1.9606 is last weeks High, that is why I am so reluctant to Short until we can press through this point.
  • #2,025
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:13pm Jan 16, 2007 5:13pm
The High this Week so far is 1.9705. (on most platforms - mine was 1.9702)
The High last Week was 1.9606

Distance is 99 pips - times that with .618% = 61 pips
Add 59 to last weeks high 1.9606 = 1.9667
(this weeks high and resistance - until the news pushed it through)

Now we are back to the High from last weeks close at 1.9606 pushing the other way.

Another way to add it all up.
  • #2,026
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:15pm Jan 16, 2007 5:15pm
correction

Quoting monarch
The High this Week so far is 1.9705. (on most platforms - mine was 1.9702)
The High last Week was 1.9606

Distance is 99 pips - times that with .618% = 61 pips
Add 61 to last weeks high 1.9606 = 1.9667
(this weeks high and resistance - until the news pushed it through)

Now we are back to the High from last weeks close at 1.9606 pushing the other way.

Another way to add it all up.
  • #2,027
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:36pm Jan 16, 2007 5:36pm
Quoting monarch
Did you release your Longs?

Or will you wait for the next rise up?
Yes big boy, my broker came short of 4 pips from releasing my long. 1.9708... Will wait for the ride up to release my lower buys. This week has been great, trying to take 10% per day, since the Lord is giving so much more than this.
Looks like now its your turn to rest.
(Was thinking your avatar looks like the Lion in the Chronicles of Narnia)
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #2,028
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:37pm Jan 16, 2007 5:37pm
2 things that i think are necessary to look out for.
1) open interest is down, with the bulk of it in terms of speculators. While speculators are still net long, the shift is occuring in the direction of the USD. Like it was stated a couple of weeks ago, most(extreme reading) speculators were long, leaving a very small group of speculative buyers in the short term. Without the additional intraday volume coming from commercials, it would be difficult to propel gbp back up regardless of news announcements. Nevertheless it is important to recognize that there does exist some space for speculative buyers to now step in.
2)Open interest in commercials has risen with the flow of positions going to GBP. Although commercials are net short, this shift is becoming clearer and clearer. The implication would be that on a larger timeframe, GBP is setting up to take out its previous high. It would seem that this unusual gain in the dollar would provide the impetus for some more GBP buying by the commercials as Price becomes more and more out of whack with the fundamental picture that is unfolding.

I am a firm believer and user of TA, however to keep it in context, I would look for TA entries that are in accord with this general view - at least the more highly leveraged ones, and any setup contrary must be monitored carefully for signals of reversals so as not to lose pips. It is also important to be extremely picky at this point with the periods used on your oscilators, although many have become overbought and come down from those levels, divergences in these extreme levels are very unreliable only because many of these oscilators are bound and in some sense are forced to diverge, especially after a very strong rally(a point where a definitive reversal is very unlikely). Not a recommendation, just an opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,029
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:47pm Jan 16, 2007 5:47pm
Quoting monarch
I have been watching the Weekly channel, and I am seeing us at the top of the lower channel, but with todays downward movement, it is revealing a continual drop to come.

Another point to consider, is the 1.9606 is last weeks High, that is why I am so reluctant to Short until we can press through this point.
Last time we saw Cable in a critical 100pip range was between 9300 and 9400, and the uptrend (not breaking the channel downwards) prevailed.

I once read that trend lines are among the most powerful indicators to trade - (the problem lies on drawing them correctly!). I see this channel well established, leaving no room for bad trend line drawing.

Now interest rate hike, consecutive USD-negative news, low volume (on Monday), all of them together weren't enough even to "smell" 9750s, what we should consider a critical milestone... 9700's more than within the channel...

Today's news - UNBELIVABLY, UNTHINKABLY USD-negative wasn't enough even to pick 9700 with a stick .

If the price merely manages to stay at 9590s, the common 25 pips ups & downs on Frankfurt/London open, won't mess with 9622...

Those are the foundations that keep me in short. However, I'm looking for a long term short, not scalping around. That's why getting back to test 9622 won't bother me a great deal.
  • #2,030
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:54pm Jan 16, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting monarch

This is still the point to break, we will hang on for a while longer to see what happens.
About to close below 9606. 7 minutes to go and 2 pips down

A sneeze and we're back to clueless
  • #2,031
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:02pm Jan 16, 2007 6:02pm
Here is a pic of the daily chart with RSI(14). I have marked the blue lines to show overbought and oversold levels in bull market, and red lines to show overbought and sold in bear. I will generally only use divergences in respect to timing when they occur in the area of either a) overbought for bear market, or b) oversold for bull market. Currently, on the dailys as far as RSI is concerned, there isn't clear trend direction as price is fluctuating between overbought for bear market and oversold for bull market. The white lines on the chart represent the price level on daily close that mark this RSI ranges just described - once price closes on dailys a couple of times above or below this range, it should signal a clear trend direction. for today this level on the upside is 1.9792.

For speculative purposes, this week should confirm the positive reversal on the weeklys inside of this decisive range, and should be the catalyst for a move above the upper white boundry on the chart. Nevertheless it is conceivable for price to touch the lower bound once more befor taking this move. Actually, it would almost be better for the overall strength of the move as it would give the commercials more time to build into their positions at a better price, and would not negate the positive reversal signal on the weekly chart. Once again, although there may be some good opportunity to the downside for now, For me the overall general direction is becoming clearer and clearer and I will be careful not to step in front of this momentum building train, although I may play some low leverage "chicken" for some quick pips.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,032
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:07pm Jan 16, 2007 6:07pm
Deadmans zone- I'd like to see a break of the previous 4 hour candle which probably isn't going to happen before London. For now, I'll consider a quick short around the .22 resistance or .32 pivot point.

Quoting cesarnc
About to close below 9606. 7 minutes to go and 2 pips down

A sneeze and we're back to clueless
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #2,033
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:10pm Jan 16, 2007 6:10pm
Dear Monarch,

  1. Your 19606ish line is the mean of the full December bell curve,
  2. I feel that we are testing the resolve and meaning of that line
  3. we can follow that battle with fibs or upper and lower daily trendlines which have set the battleground-grid
  4. so while the lower line has had 3 tests in the last week and held yet is prone to fail, we could still get a suprise up, at least to test the resolve or interest in the 2 sigma area of the December bell curve ie +1.9700ish.

hmm
best
j

  • #2,034
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:11pm Jan 16, 2007 6:11pm
Here is a pic of 1 possible 4 hour channel. There is also a confirmed positive reversal in RSI Here, can you see it?
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,035
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:14pm Jan 16, 2007 6:14pm
if drawn from previous bars we may still have 50-70 pips to go to downside before this turns. If this would occur, it would also line up with the 7 period RSI lower bound(Pretty good support on short term indecisive market).
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,036
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:26pm Jan 16, 2007 6:26pm
bought ten lots 1.9606 lets see where this leeds
  • #2,037
  • Edited 7:03pm Jan 16, 2007 6:33pm | Edited 7:03pm
I guarantee you there are better setups forthcoming. More power to you if it works out in your favor

Quoting 59fender
bought ten lots 1.9606 lets see where this leeds
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #2,038
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:40pm Jan 16, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting 59fender
bought ten lots 1.9606 lets see where this leeds
Hope its a demo, best of luck to you!
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #2,039
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:49pm Jan 16, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting summitfx
I gurantee you there are better setups forthcoming. More power to you if it works out in your favor
is that a money back guarantee? if it is i'll take it
  • #2,040
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:51pm Jan 16, 2007 6:51pm
(blah... blah... blah...) BOE member Sentance spoke against a rise in U.K. minimum wages, suggesting such a policy could raise unemployment. Buying orders at 1.9570 by a UK Clearer and selling orders by fund types will dictate the range this session.
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