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  • #881
  • Mar 3, 2008 6:16pm Mar 3, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting dagoods
hi mike..... obviously we were expecting the trendline at 207.6 to hold and give a bounce.... then the supports in 206 207 areas.... but considering the market and the weekly h and s we coud jjust keep freefalling..... hard to say at this point.... but i am not going to try longs..... falling knife and whatnot ya know....


closed my shorts way too early at 207.8 bummer..... so that leaves me on the sidelines.... oh well..... i think we can expect further downside until this thing finds some buyers maybe somewhere between 203 and 205 and then we will see... i think 214 217 targets are probably history..... 209 210 maybe the tops for possible retrace and proabaly down more first..... cant see BOJ letting uj go below 103 102 and definitely not lower than 100 .... that would be too painful for japanese economy right now...... so although gj goes to 190 and lower on the charts ... how it gets there and when?... who knows.... gonna sit tight for a few days i think then see...... if the carry falls apart maybe boj steps in then we go up a bit for a bigger fall???? who knows.... tricky bastrd that gj@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ohhhhh, your good! lol That was excellent man!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #882
  • Mar 5, 2008 11:44am Mar 5, 2008 11:44am
Ok, so all the trades that were posted yesterday are now in profit except for the eur/chf, which should get there by tomorrow. Excellent day for trading, my friends!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #883
  • Mar 5, 2008 3:52pm Mar 5, 2008 3:52pm
Looking on my charts, I am looking to see the gbp/jpy make a quick retracement down to the 206 area, before moving higher up. Today's closing as a confirmation bar for that pin and so I would look to see 208 something by tomorrow.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #884
  • Mar 5, 2008 4:56pm Mar 5, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting mike w
Looking on my charts, I am looking to see the gbp/jpy make a quick retracement down to the 206 area, before moving higher up. Today's closing as a confirmation bar for that pin and so I would look to see 208 something by tomorrow.
How ya doin Mike? Thanks for posting about that long on EUR/CHF as I was going to trade it yesterday and totally forgot to enter a trade on it until I snooped your journal. Looks like if we can close past 208.60 on GBP/JPY we could roll on northward to well past 211.00 again. Just a side observation. Hey, can you give me a good reason why I shouldn't trade that PB (03.03.2008) on USD/CHF?
  • #885
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:14pm Mar 8, 2008 6:14pm
Alritey based on my daily and weekly charts, we should be seeing a good deal of upside on the eur/jpy throughout this week. The daily closed as a pin bar and so I am thinking this upmove will happen sooner than later.

On the weeklies, I'm seeing a pattern that repeats itself over and over again. As you'll see, since the bottom, we've had two runups in price. Now this week is closed as a pin bar (on my other charting package). This entails to me that we should see the third and final run up in price before another fall takes place. Normally this next run up goes higher than the last and so I will set my initial take profits above 160 and into 161.

Also, something not to be forgotten about this is that last months bar was an inside bar. If closed above, we could be continuing the uptrend and from there I would look for around 167 to come into play, or around 1000 pips up. That's just a hypothetical thought for now, until we see a clear break of that inside bar. For now, though, I am long based on the daily pin and also the weekly pin. These are off of areas of confluence as well, based on fib levels and so that holds quite a bit more weight for me.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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I dream, therefore I become.
  • #886
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:17pm Mar 8, 2008 6:17pm
I'm looking to see the usd/jpy bounce back from these levels up to around 105 or 106 now as well. The daily pin could be the spark for that trade. I've already been in this one and plan on adding to the position.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #887
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:19pm Mar 8, 2008 6:19pm
I'm just going to post weekly analysis for most pairs that I trade right now as I'm bored. There is a weekly inside bar for the aud/usd. We'll see where that takes us to, most likely to the downside.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #888
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:21pm Mar 8, 2008 6:21pm
For the gbp/jpy, my thoughts are still bullish obviously as we are seeing a weekly pin bar along with solid price action on the dailies. This should carry us higher in order to see the drop to 199. From there, who knows. That is my initial target for shorts when I decide to enter into them. For now, I'm just enjoying the positive swap.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #889
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:24pm Mar 8, 2008 6:24pm
For the gbp/jpy, my thoughts are still bullish obviously as we are seeing a weekly pin bar along with solid price action on the dailies. This should carry us higher in order to see the drop to 199. From there, who knows. That is my initial target for shorts when I decide to enter into them. For now, I'm just enjoying the positive swap.

My thoughts on the gbp/chf are bullish at the moment too. We are seeing a weekly pin bar and consolidation on the dailies. With that, whichever way it breaks (preferrably to the northside), it should present a fairly large move.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #890
  • Mar 11, 2008 9:59am Mar 11, 2008 9:59am
The trades that I posted last week are all in profit at the moment except for the eur/chf position. Good week so far and only planning for it to get better. G/u needs to finish it's retracement to get another good buying position in on there. Once that happens, I'm looking at 2.04 at least. Who knows, PA will tell us.

Jim Jim Jarroo told me that one!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #891
  • Mar 14, 2008 1:31pm Mar 14, 2008 1:31pm
For the most part, those trades went against me and I am ending with an overall loss this week. It's no biggy as I stuck with my plan (even though I didnt want to) but I forced myself to lol. So, as of now, most of the trades were losers, except for a few on the euro and gbp. Other than that, I am going to be taking an overall loss on the gbp/jpy, as the price action on the weekly broke down and now we are seeing a double high lower close on the weekly charts. I'll be posting analysis throughout the weekend for the new week. Best of luck to everybody and have a great weekend!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #892
  • Mar 16, 2008 9:12am Mar 16, 2008 9:12am
Quoting mike w
For the most part, those trades went against me and I am ending with an overall loss this week. It's no biggy as I stuck with my plan (even though I didnt want to) but I forced myself to lol. So, as of now, most of the trades were losers, except for a few on the euro and gbp. Other than that, I am going to be taking an overall loss on the gbp/jpy, as the price action on the weekly broke down and now we are seeing a double high lower close on the weekly charts. I'll be posting analysis throughout the weekend for the new week. Best of luck to everybody and have a great weekend!
Same great weekend to you Mike!

Hope the next week will get a bit better. I was alright until I burned my fingers on the EURCAD short... just a day too early for such an entry! So I gave the nice and well planned gains back in a single trade ... and while I was playing tennis!

Ciao!
Matt
  • #893
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:14pm Mar 18, 2008 1:14pm
Alritey, right now I only have a couple smaller trades open along with my eur/usd positions and a usd/cad short. Nothing is really looking all that great on the dailies so far so it's a sleepy day...
I'm waiting to see a possible engulfment pattern on the gbp/jpy, but need to look further into it so as not to get burned like last week lol None of the weeklies look all that great either at that. On a good note, my gbp/usd trades hit their take profit before coming down for another run up. I'm looking to possibly see higher than the last high that was produced.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #894
  • Mar 18, 2008 4:09pm Mar 18, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting Gnat
Same great weekend to you Mike!

Hope the next week will get a bit better. I was alright until I burned my fingers on the EURCAD short... just a day too early for such an entry! So I gave the nice and well planned gains back in a single trade ... and while I was playing tennis!

Ciao!
Matt
It already has my man! It'll come back around, it always does! Best of luck to you this week Matt.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #895
  • Mar 18, 2008 4:11pm Mar 18, 2008 4:11pm
Right now, I'm seeing the eur/usd with a confirmation bar to the bearish bar from yesterday. That's telling me more shorting is in order so I'll wait for a retracement from this last move toabout 1.5660 and then take a short order on it. Long term longs are still in play though and i plan on just collecting interest on them for a long time now.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #896
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:57am Mar 19, 2008 11:57am
I'm posting a small long on g/j now and then waiting for the price action to commit to add into the position. I'm looking for a target of around 200 to begin with and then 205 in extension. This trade is from 196.58. The euro shorts are turning out nicely as I got in at the top at 1.5750 and keep adding on the ride down every 30 pips. All are in profit at the moment.

I think the g/j could possibly fall another 100 to 200 pips before any real upwards movement begins and so I would plan on adding at a lower level if it would do so.

Have a great day everybody!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #897
  • Mar 20, 2008 1:33pm Mar 20, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting mike w
I'm posting a small long on g/j now and then waiting for the price action to commit to add into the position. I'm looking for a target of around 200 to begin with and then 205 in extension. This trade is from 196.58. The euro shorts are turning out nicely as I got in at the top at 1.5750 and keep adding on the ride down every 30 pips. All are in profit at the moment.

I think the g/j could possibly fall another 100 to 200 pips before any real upwards movement begins and so I would plan on adding at a lower level if it would do so.

Have a great day everybody!

The euro shorts are great at the moment and all positions have profit locked into place. The g/j longs are going well too. I posted some at the low 195's looking for a first target of 198. I closed out the usd/cad short yesterday for a loss however.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #898
  • Mar 20, 2008 8:50pm Mar 20, 2008 8:50pm
I've just closed out the euro shorts I had in place as a hedge on my longs. Nice chunk of change brought in off of those. I'll post if I see any solid opportunities coming about. Have a great night ladies and gents.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #899
  • Mar 20, 2008 9:05pm Mar 20, 2008 9:05pm
I've also just posted a small buy order on the gbp/usd as we have a daily pin coming off of a dynamic fib level. This is telling me that there was support that couldn't be broken and so we should see some more upside now. I'm also waiting for another good area to go long the eur/usd again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #900
  • Mar 23, 2008 4:27pm Mar 23, 2008 4:27pm
The usd/jpy weekly bar closed as a pin and on the dailies, we have 2 consecutive inside bars. This is telling me that we're about to see a break out, and depending on which way, I would trade in that direction. I would expect some sort of upside this week because of that pin although I won't make a trade solely based on it. The breakout will tell the tale.
I dream, therefore I become.
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