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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,981
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:07am Jan 16, 2007 10:07am
Had to force myself back into trading today, just been watching, and a bad start ofcourse

Figuring on a slow move up here, 1.9640 next resistance, we'll see.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,982
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:07am Jan 16, 2007 10:07am
Quoting monarch
I am waiting for the Close of this Hour for the downward projections.

This is what I have for now.

The High was 1.9667 before the jump to 1.9702 which is 35 pips.

My Last Break Line was 1.9606 going into this setup.

The High went to 1.9667 which completed my upward movement Fibo extension, price stayed at 1.9667 for sometime, then jumped to 1.9702 today.

My Fibo Extension Calculations are as follows:

1.9667 61.8% Fib Extension (- minus) 1.9606 50% Fibo Extension = 61 pips.
61.8% of 61 pips = 38 pips.
Add 38 to 1.9667 (The Completed 61.8% Fibo Extension) = 1.9705
1.9705 would be the 61.8% Fibo Extension of the Upward Movement completed from the Low 1.9315 to the High 1.9667.

1.9622 Should act as a Resistance if the Upwards movement has completed.

Watch for a Break at 1.9606 (closed candle) before we see a Downward indication on the Hourly.
If I understood you correctly your Fib calculation came from the daily chart projecting from November 17 to November 24 establishing the extenssion of 50% and 61.8% for 1.9606 and 1.9667 (my chart is below). Is that correct? Looks to me that it is.

I have a couple of questions:

1. Why did you measure that particular zone in November rather than any other swing? This seesm to meaqsure the swing in a middle of progress.
2. Why do you pay attention to this zone after 2 month of trading? Is it a case that there were some other condidions that reestablished those lines?
3. Does extenssions paya more significant tole in your analysis than retracement or/and fib projections(expanssions, swing projections)

Thanks
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  • #1,983
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:12am Jan 16, 2007 10:12am
I cannot acknowledge every member who makes a post, but I am very grateful for all the complete analysis that everyone here is adding.

I know there are many traders who don't respond to the thread, we hope that through these up to date analysis, we all could learn together.

I do want to express my desire to every trader here.

I purposed in my own heart when I started trading that I would learn enough from everyone else so that if one day they all dissapeared, I could trade on my own.

You never know how long someone may teach you in the forums, some of my own teachers are now gone.

We must all be prepared in our own studies, strategies, and techniques, because each day we brush ideas with great traders who come, and then they no longer appear.

Learn from everyone you know, then apply what you learned, and be independant!
  • #1,984
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:14am Jan 16, 2007 10:14am
I prefer to KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid). I look for swing reversals on the 4 hour charts. Today's rejection of the down trend line signals a swing reversal has started. Target is at least the 50 Fib of the move up.
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  • #1,985
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:17am Jan 16, 2007 10:17am
So I look for a good entry point on the hourlies. The 50 Fib of today's down move looks like a good entry point. Also good from a money management perspective because you can have a roughly even stop loss and take profit level.
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  • #1,986
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:18am Jan 16, 2007 10:18am
Dear Monarch, the comment you just made is very enlightning. You are so true in your saying. As we can say, we are, as unique particule, one big ocean composed of many drops that by adding up form the beauty and the force of a great ocean.

Striving to work together, we can only get more stronger and feel very peaceful inside and true contentment
  • #1,987
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:21am Jan 16, 2007 10:21am
Quoting Lenny
If I understood you correctly your Fib calculation came from the daily chart projecting from November 17 to November 24 establishing the extenssion of 50% and 61.8% for 1.9606 and 1.9667 (my chart is below). Is that correct? Looks to me that it is.

I have a couple of questions:

1. Why did you measure that particular zone in November rather than any other swing? This seesm to meaqsure the swing in a middle of progress.
2. Why do you pay attention to this zone after 2 month of trading? Is it a case that there were some other condidions that reestablished those lines?
3. Does extenssions paya more significant tole in your analysis than retracement or/and fib projections(expanssions, swing projections)

Thanks
I hope this will answer your question.

I guess I never really read to much or have anyone explain this to me, but what I do with the Fibo's is this.

I will subdivided each movement on each time frame.

Such as the chart you posted, the Fibo's before had all been completed, and therefore, I started a new Fibo Setup from what I thought was the completion of the previous setup. This takes tremendous time and study of each time frame.

Now we reached a High at 1.9846. This would be the perfect point for anyone to have begun a Fibo study. If you look at where the price has gone since that High, you can pretty much figure where the Fibo setup started.

You could look back on the Daily and see every move up had a retracement of 50% minimum, this would be a process of elimination. Nov 17th, 2006 was the last low that had not completed a 50% retracement until the low at 1.9620. We came within 40 pips of completing a 61.8% Fibo retracement.

I was expecting this drop last week, before the rise upwards.

Now we can see we have made a complete cycle of the Long Term Fibo Setup.

I am now working a 1 Hour Fibo Setup, since I know that we are in a Long Term cycle.

There you go, hard to explain somethings.
  • #1,988
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:21am Jan 16, 2007 10:21am
Thanks to all that are contributing to this thread! Especially Monarch, I have been impressed with your understanding of the market.
Regards,
Lowell

p.s.-don't get a big head
  • #1,989
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:24am Jan 16, 2007 10:24am
I think im starting to see a Symmetrical triangle. So there should be a breakout soon...
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,990
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:25am Jan 16, 2007 10:25am
@ notouch, what is your 50% fib line? All i can see 1.95

EDIT: refering to post 1990
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,991
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:30am Jan 16, 2007 10:30am
50 Fib retracement of the up move is 1.9485. 1.95 may also be a good target as it's a nice round number.
  • #1,992
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:31am Jan 16, 2007 10:31am
From the High 1.9702 (I will use this number since I have if for my High - even though the 1.9705 would be the better setup for a precise setup).

The Fibo Retracement is as follows:
High 1.9702
Low 1.9590
112 pip range
61.8% - 69 pips = 1.9633 (reached 1.9635)

Next is the High 1.9635
Low at 1.9590
45 pip range
61.8% - 28 pips = 1.9618 reached 1.9619)

Next is the High 1.9618
Low at 1.9590
28 pip range
61.8% - 17 pips = 1.9607 (right on our break line)

This will complete our 3 stage Fibo setup with each 61.8% max retracement being completed to the exact point.

Now the 1.9590 will be the next line to break below, we will watch for this now.
  • #1,993
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:35am Jan 16, 2007 10:35am
Quoting notouch
50 Fib retracement of the up move is 1.9485. 1.95 may also be a good target as it's a nice round number.
I guess if i took a better look at your chart first, and asked questions later, i wouldn't have to ask you that. . Thanks for the quick response
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,994
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:41am Jan 16, 2007 10:41am
Quoting monarch
I hope this will answer your question.

I guess I never really read to much or have anyone explain this to me, but what I do with the Fibo's is this.

I will subdivided each movement on each time frame.

Such as the chart you posted, the Fibo's before had all been completed, and therefore, I started a new Fibo Setup from what I thought was the completion of the previous setup. This takes tremendous time and study of each time frame.

Now we reached a High at 1.9846. This would be the perfect point for anyone to have begun a Fibo study. If you look at where the price has gone since that High, you can pretty much figure where the Fibo setup started.

You could look back on the Daily and see every move up had a retracement of 50% minimum, this would be a process of elimination. Nov 17th, 2006 was the last low that had not completed a 50% retracement until the low at 1.9620. We came within 40 pips of completing a 61.8% Fibo retracement.

I was expecting this drop last week, before the rise upwards.

Now we can see we have made a complete cycle of the Long Term Fibo Setup.

I am now working a 1 Hour Fibo Setup, since I know that we are in a Long Term cycle.

There you go, hard to explain somethings.
Thanks.

I do understand your approach. I just do not understand your reasoning for that extenssion calculation zone from November 17 for the reason why November 24 was chosen and and why those extenssion lines played any role in your day trading today?

Extenssions to me are a lot less significant than retracements and swing projections.

It is working for you and it is great. I just cannot see the essence of your calculation since this is the first time you mentioned the extenssion lines

Thanks again
  • #1,995
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:42am Jan 16, 2007 10:42am
Quoting notouch
I prefer to KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid). I look for swing reversals on the 4 hour charts. Today's rejection of the down trend line signals a swing reversal has started. Target is at least the 50 Fib of the move up.
I see the Fibo setup you have is from 1.9263 to 1.9702, but I am not quite expecting such a drastic Fibo Setup as that.

The reason is we are on a retracement from the upward trend at High 1.9846.

The Fibo setup for this upward must have consideration of being a retracement in itself.

I have actually place my Low on this move at 1.9390 which is the lowest point on the hourly that has not been completed yet.

This would give us a 312 pip range and a Fibo setup as follows:
38.2% - 119 pips - 1.9583
50% - 150 pips - 1.9552
61.8% - 193 pips - 1.9508

This would probably allow a less restrictive target, with a greater possiblity of achieving.
  • #1,996
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:59am Jan 16, 2007 10:59am
Quoting monarch
The Fibo Retracement is as follows:
High 1.9702
Low 1.9590
112 pip range
61.8% - 69 pips = 1.9633 (reached 1.9635)
That was only a 38.2% retracement!?
  • #1,997
  • Jan 16, 2007 11:02am Jan 16, 2007 11:02am
From all the Fibos I have my targets are as follows. All of them are showing gbp going down.

1.9577
1.9518
1.9488
1.9465
1.9403
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,998
  • Jan 16, 2007 11:03am Jan 16, 2007 11:03am
Quoting Lenny
Thanks.
Quoting Lenny

I do understand your approach. I just do not understand your reasoning for that extenssion calculation zone from November 17 for the reason why November 24 was chosen and and why those extenssion lines played any role in your day trading today?

Extenssions to me are a lot less significant than retracements and swing projections.

It is working for you and it is great. I just cannot see the essence of your calculation since this is the first time you mentioned the extenssion lines

Thanks again


I only mention Fibo extensions to give credence to the completion of a Fibo Setup that is currently running its cycle.

This may or may not be a proper technique, but it is one I am working on at the moment trying to perfect my strategy.

It also allows me to see the forward projection of a movement, but not until there is a completion of the present setup.

It is actually the opposite of what has happened, but it is the same principle used in Fibo Retracements that has taken place.

If the market is working in a channel such as we have been in since the nice Bull run up, then we must follow every move it has taken, but at the same time project where it is going.

Just a sample, I would say this week would be Bearish, because last week was Bullish.

I wait for the Fibo Completion which was 1.9702, and start a calculaton if it is High of the Fibo setup, or an extension to the High of the Fibo setup.

Then I will project from there the opposite direction that it came from.

I use many calculations of past Fibo's and supports/resistance, and I tend to favor the 50% range rather than maximizing a move at 61.8%.

The whole purpose is to be prepared when such a move comes at you, then you can set back, and just know that this was where it was going to go, but maybe not exactly at the point we feel it should have done it.

I thought 1.9645-50 was the High we were going to reach this week, but it extended past, I mapped the High at 1.9667, and then we had an past our High to 1.9702 a 61.8% increase over the High.

Usually when the market turns in a direction, it will not happen on a dime, it must have room to expand or breath before a retracement.

This allows me to see if we have breached the Upward Fibo 61.8% at 1.9622 from the previous Bull Run retracement, and it will also reveal if were in a upward trend or downward trend for the Short Term and Long Term.

My projection (my own projection only) would be to expect a few more ranges before the acutal move for the year.

Downward now, one more upwards, then one more downwards.

From there I would expect the price to go back up past to our High at 1.9846, or past the 1.9900 area. This would be on the Monthly - 1.9846 would be a Double Top, above the 1.9900 would reveal continual increase.

Just my 2 cents worth, sorry such a long of a book folks.
  • #1,999
  • Jan 16, 2007 11:04am Jan 16, 2007 11:04am
i am assuming the 1.9390 is the low point that was from the oct to dec move, right monarch??
  • #2,000
  • Jan 16, 2007 11:11am Jan 16, 2007 11:11am
Quoting mtrmth
i am assuming the 1.9390 is the low point that was from the oct to dec move, right monarch??
This would be the 1.9390 on the Hourly Chart 11:00 EST on 1/11/2007 - I marked it at the Low of that Candle.
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